The NEC is going through some changes this offseason, with Quinnipiac and Monmouth joining the MAAC. I'm not sure that really makes a significant difference, since neither of those teams has historically been much of a factor in the NEC anyway. Overall, this was actually a relatively strong season for this league, which tends to be among the three or four weakest conferences in the nation. The highlight for the league was probably in the NIT, where Robert Morris took down an utterly uninterested Kentucky team. They will probably never again get a chance to play a team with kind of name in their home arena, and it was a great win for them... even if they followed it up by falling meekly to Providence in the next round. LIU was the conference's representative in the NCAA Tournament, where they fell to James Madison in a 16/16 play-in game. Wagner did not play in the CBI or CIT, which was odd (I'm not sure if they were offered and declined). Bryant was the third NEC team to go to a postseason tournament. They went to the CBI, where they fell to Richmond in the first round.
While Robert Morris was the clear best team in the NEC this past season, the top of the conference was awfully wide open. So LIU's NEC tournament championship was unlikely, but not particularly shocking. Any of the top six teams seemed like a pretty plausible contender. LIU had a new head coach this year after Jim Ferry moved on, but they went with Jack Perri, who had been an assistant at LIU for seven seasons. And Perri didn't really change anything - it was the same LIU team it's been for years. They play uptempo and score a lot of points, but are sloppy and play poor defense. They are what they are. They lose three starters next season, as well as a couple of bench players. The toughest losses are backcourt starters CJ Garner (16.1 ppg, 54.1 eFG%, 4.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.6 spg) and Brandon Thompson (8.1 ppg, 1.3 apg). They play a three guard lineup, though, and do return primary playmaker Jason Brickman (9.5 ppg, 46.2 3P%, 8.5 apg). The third starter that they lose is Jamal Olasewere (18.9 ppg, 54.1 eFG%, 8.6 rpg). They do have some young players ready to fill in, though, including Gerrell Martin (41.2 3P%) and Troy Joseph (3.2 points and 2.0 rebounds in only 12.2 minutes per game), but their best prospect is EJ Reed, who had 7.7 points (54.5 eFG%) and 4.0 rebounds per game as a true freshman. So I don't think LIU is going away next season. As I said, they are who they are. They might take a little step back, but they're still going to be a tough team to play.
As I said, Robert Morris was the best team in the NEC this past season. They were an all-around solid team in all facets of the game. They are steady offensively, hit 40.7% of their threes in conference play, and also were the league's best defense (0.96 PPP in conference play). They lose a pair of starters to graduation - Russell Johnson (10.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 2.0 spg) and Velton Jones (10.6 ppg, 5.1 apg, 1.6 spg) - but return the rest of their regular rotation. They return all three regulars that shot over 40% behind the arc, led by Lucky Jones (11.6 ppg, 42.7 3P%, 6.0 rpg, 1.5 apg). Karvel Anderson and Coron Johnson are the other two returning sharpshooters. They have two needs for next season. The first is finding a point guard to replace Velton Jones. Anthony Myers-Pate (5.9 ppg, 2.8 apg) is probably the favorite for that job, but he doesn't have a high ceiling. 2013 recruit Kavon Stewart is another potential option. The other need is more size and better rebounding. They have one more season of Mike McFadden, and also have a good prospect in 6'9" Stephan Hawkins (2.5 points and 2.2 rebounds in 11.9 minutes per game as a true freshman).
Wagner moved on from the Hurley Brothers with Bashir Mason, who had previously been an assistant with the program. Mason was only 28 years old when he took over a year ago, making him the youngest coach in Division I basketball. And Mason kept the ship basically still heading in the right direction. They were still a defense-first team, with pretty good size by NEC standards. They do lose a couple of starters to graduation - Jonathon Williams (15.6 ppg, 55.7 eFG%, 6.4 rpg) and Josh Thompson (3.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg). They have one more season with primary playmaker Kenneth Ortiz (11.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, 2.1 spg), and have a nice outside shooter in Latif Rivers (39.4 3P%). Bashir Mason is going to need to fill in some depth, particularly with some transfer problems. The biggest transfer out is Eric Fanning, their most productive true freshman this past season, who was suspended for the final few weeks and looks to be on his way out of the program.
Bryant was the up-and-coming program in the NEC this past season, improving from a brutal 2-28 season last year to get off to a 13-4 start to this season (including 6-0 in NEC play). But they struggled a bit late in the season, losing three of their final six regular season games, then going one-and-done in both the NEC tournament and the CBI. They had the strongest offense in NEC play (1.14 PPP) and also led the league in eFG% (58.1%). They do lose a pair of starters - Frankie Dobbs (13.4 ppg, 5.3 apg) and Vlad Kondratyev (5.4 ppg, 58.5 FG%, 4.3 rpg) - but return Alex Francis (17.4 ppg, 56.9 FG%, 8.6) and Dynami Starks (17.7 ppg, 40.8 3P%). Finding offensive creativity without Dobbs will likely fall onto Corey Maynard. They are going to need some added depth, which Tim O'Shea will be looking for from a large 2013 recruiting class.
Mount St. Mary's is the final team from the NEC that was a contender for the conference title this past season. They finished the season strong, winning 9 straight games before falling in the NEC title game to LIU. They knocked off both Wagner and Robert Morris in the NEC tournament, but their shooting just gave out against LIU. They are in pretty good shape for next season also, with only one graduation from their regular rotation - Raven Barber (5.0 ppg, 57.9 FG%, 2.9 rpg). They have a good playmaker (Julian Norfleet - 10.8 ppg, 3.2 apg) and a quality up-and-coming scorer (Shivaughn Wiggins - 9.6 ppg, 45.1 3P% and 2.2 apg as a true freshman), and a quality big man (Kristijan Krajina - 5.9 ppg, 62.7 FG%, 3.5 rpg). They do need another big man with the graduation of Barber, so the question will be whether 7-footer Taylor Danaher (2.8 points and 2.1 rebounds in 12.4 minutes per game as a freshman) can step into extended minutes, or if they can make get something from 6'7" 2012 recruit Greg Graves.
In a wide open league, Central Connecticut State and St. Francis (NY) are two other potential contenders. St. Francis was better than their record this past season, though they lose three of their top seven minute earners. They do have a rising star in Jalen Cannon (14.7 ppg and 8.8 rpg as a sophomore). They'll need better play from Brent Jones (6.0 ppg, 4.2 apg, 1.6 A/TO ratio) to take the next step. Central Connecticut State was in the middle of the pack this past season, but they lose only one regular to graduation - Joe Efese (7.2 ppg, 58.9 FG%, 3.9 rpg, 1.6 bpg). They have a very aggressive scorer in Kyle Vinales (21.6 ppg, 36.5 3P%, 3.8 apg) and a good big man prospect in Brandon Peel (4.4 ppg and 5.5 rpg as a true freshman).
I expect another competitive season from the NEC next season. No team looks likely to run away with the league. LIU is always a difficult team to play because of their style. If Bashir Mason lives up to the hype then we can expect good things from Wagner, though for now I need to see how he fills out his roster and how his team changes as he has more of his own players on the roster. Bryant is another team that definitely should be involved in the title race again as well. But in my opinion, the conference will come down to Mount St. Mary's vs Robert Morris. Robert Morris was the league's best team this past season and should continue to be steady and solid. They will play good defense and be efficient offensively. But in my opinion, Mount St. Mary's has the higher ceiling. They were arguably playing better than any other team in the conference late in this past season, and return nearly all of their key players, including several strong freshmen. So I'm taking Mount St. Mary's as the early favorite.
We were all excited when Belmont joined Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference. Murray State didn't quite live up to expectations, finishing only 4th in the standings and 4th in efficiency margin, but they still played two really great games against Belmont. The OVC title game, in particular, was fantastic to watch. Belmont came back from 7 points down with under 2 minutes to go, eventually winning in overtime. This Belmont team wasn't quite as elite as the past two seasons, though, and they again fell short in the NCAA Tournament. Murray State did not go to any postseason tournament, but Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State did. In the end, Evansville finished off the Ohio Valley conference, taking out Tennessee State in the first round of the CIT and then Eastern Kentucky in the second round. Eastern Kentucky's CIT win came over Gardner Webb.
We have to start any OVC discussion with Belmont. Rick Byrd's teams will always play a pretty consistent style. They're going to continue being strong defensively and they're going to force a lot of turnovers next season. The problem is that they lose three starters, including stars Kerron Johnson (14.0 ppg, 4.8 apg, 1.7 spg) and Ian Clark (18.2 ppg, 45.9 3P%, 67.0 eFG%, 2.4 apg, 1.6 spg). The third starter gone is starting center Trevor Noack. The two starters that they return are good, led by JJ Mann (10.5 ppg, 38.8 3P%, 4.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.9 spg). Rick Byrd does have some good young players ready to step in for Johnson, Clark and Noack. Their primary playmaker next season should be Reece Chamberlain (3.6 ppg, 2.2 apg), and they have a good prospect in 2012 recruit Craig Bradshaw (2.2 points in 9.3 minutes per game, with a 60.5 eFG%). They had two other really good 2012 recruits that didn't make a mark this past season (Caleb Chowbay took a redshirt, while Jeff Laidig played sparingly), but they clearly have the talent to play more next season. Their top 2013 recruit is 6'6" Evan Bradds.
Murray State, as I said above, was a bit disappointing this season. With all that they had coming back, they should have been a Top 100 team at least. And it's going to be a rebuilding season next year, with four starters graduating, including superstar Isaiah Canaan (21.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.5 spg) and Ed Daniel (13.2 ppg, 56.0 FG%, 10.0 ppg, 1.6 bpg). The one returning starter is Dexter Fields (6.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg). They also have a good prospect in sixth man Jeffrey Moss (4.4 ppg, 40.3 3P%, 2.0 rpg as a true freshman), but after that have no proven returning talent. 2012 freshmen Erik McCree and CJ Ford both played little as true freshmen, but were highly rated. They also hope to get back Zay Jackson, who was a freshman in 2011-12 but missed this past season from suspension because of legal issues. They will also add TJ Sapp in the spring semester, who had 3.6 points in 15.9 minutes per game in one and a half seasons at Clemson. Their top 2013 recruit is 5'11" Cameron Payne. So Steve Prohm has some talent to work with, but next season is a rebuilding season for the Racers.
With all the attention that Belmont and Murray State got, Eastern Kentucky was the hidden team in the Ohio Valley Conference this past season. There's a reason that casual basketball fans don't think of them, of course. Eastern Kentucky has been to the NCAA Tournament three times in the past half century, and their win in the CIT this season was their first in any postseason tournament in more than 60 seasons as a member of the NCAA. It's odd when a CIT win is so important to your program but, hey, they haven't even ever gotten in to the NIT (they made the CBI once before, back in 2010). Anyway, Eastern Kentucky's success this past season came from a very strong backcourt. They led the conference in turnover rate and FT%, and launched just a ton of threes (they finished 2nd in the entire nation with a 45.3 3PA/FGA ratio). Their front court, though, was tiny. They had only two regulars over 6'5", and none over 6'8", and were the worst rebounding team in the conference. Their ability to take care of the ball is very valuable against Belmont's pressure defense, but they need some front court improvement to win the league. They do lose their primary ball handler (Mike DiNunno - 14.8 ppg, 38.9 3P%, 4.3 apg, 1.9 spg), but every other key player is back. They have a pair of strong backcourt returners in Glenn Cosey (15.2 ppg, 40.4 3P%, 3.2 apg, 1.6 spg) and Corey Walden (13.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.7 spg), and their one true front court starter (Eric Stutz - 8.3 ppg, 63.6 eFG%, 4.7 rpg) still has two more years of eligibility. One intriguing prospect is 6'7" sophomore Deverin Muff, who was effective early in the season, but barely played late. Considering their need for size, I would have thought they'd play him more. An alternative prospect is 6'7" sophomore Timmy Knipp. If Eastern Kentucky can find that defensive size and rebounding from another big body, they definitely have the backcourt talent to beat Belmont.
The fourth and final team to contend in the vicinity of the top of the standings this past season was Tennessee State, but they lose three of their top four scorers (Kellen Thornton, Jordan Cyphers and Robert Covington). Their second leading returning scorer is MJ Rhett, who had only 5.3 points per game. So if there's a sleeper team for next season, I think it actually has to be Eastern Illinois. They started the season a brutal 3-16, but finished the season really strong. They won 8 of their final 12 games, including an upset of Murray State. They do lose three regulars (Austin Akers, Taylor Jones and Malcolm Herron), but return star Sherman Blanford (10.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.3 apg) and also a quality big man in Josh Piper (10.2 ppg, 55.0 eFG%, 4.4 rpg). They have two strong 2012 shooting guard recruits (Cameron Harvey and Alex Austin) to build their future around, and there's a good reason to think that they should be even better next season.
That said, despite all of their graduation losses, Belmont isn't going anywhere. They are going to play the same style, and even if they take a small step back I'll still be surprised if they finish the season outside the Top 100. Murray State is going to be in rebuilding mode, which means that some new team will have to challenge Belmont. In my opinion, Eastern Kentucky is most likely to be that team. They flew under the radar this past season, but have a nice core to build around and have particular strengths that match up well against what Belmont likes to do. But for the time being, Belmont has to remain the favorite. I have faith that Rick Byrd will find the necessary young players to fill in well enough to deliver another Ohio Valley title.
For the first time in more than a decade, the Patriot League is changing things up. They are adding a pair of new members: Boston University from the America East and Loyola-Maryland from the MAAC. Both programs were pretty good this past season, and that should help change the top of a league that has been absolutely dominated by Lehigh and Bucknell for the past few of seasons. The league was always going to be moving on next season, however, with both Mike Muscala and CJ McCollum graduating (and presumably moving to the NBA). The season ending injury to CJ McCollum did rob us of a couple of great final battles between those two teams at full strength, but Bucknell did end up playing awfully well against Butler in the NCAA Tournament. Lehigh went to the CBI, where they fell by a single point to Wyoming. There was a large gap to the rest of the league, so none of them played in any postseason tournament. That said, Boston University and Loyola-Maryland actually played each other in the CIT. Loyola won that game, and then beat Kent State before falling to eventual-champion East Carolina in the quarterfinals.
We have to start any Patriot League discussion with Bucknell, but Mike Muscala (18.7 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.4 bpg) is not the only key loss. They also lose Joe Willman (10.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Bryson Johnson (11.1 ppg, 39.7 3P%, 2.3 apg). The one really proven player that they return is Cameron Ayers (12.4 ppg, 39.6 3P%, 4.0 rpg, 2.0 apg), but after that their roster is full of question marks. Ryan Frazier is a decent playmaker, but not much of a scorer. 6'7" Dom Hoffman was pretty good in very limited minutes as a true freshman. After that? I don't know. Their 2013 recruiting class doesn't have anybody particularly highly touted. Next season will be a rebuilding season for Bucknell.
Lehigh loses CJ McCollum (23.9 ppg, 58.0 eFG%, 5.0 rpg, 2.9 apg), of course, but he missed most of this past season, anyway. And I was surprised by just how well Lehigh played without him. They actually won a road game at Bucknell without him. They do lose another pair of key players, though - Gabe Knutson (13.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and Holden Greiner (13.2 ppg, 43.3 3P%, 6.7 rpg). They return one proven playmaker (Corey Schaefer - 4.6 ppg, 54.0 eFG%, 2.1 apg), and will hope to get a full season out of sharpshooter BJ Bailey (47.3 3P%), who missed most of this past season with a series of injuries. Also look for shooting guard Devon Carter, who was their top 2012 recruit but missed most of the season with a knee injury. Since they already played nearly all of their important games this season without McCollum, it's reasonable to argue that (if they can get totally healthy) they could actually be a better team next season than they were this past season.
The team Bucknell beat in the Patriot League title game was not Lehigh, but Lafayette. Lafayette finished tied for second place in the standings with Lehigh, though they were a bit back in efficiency margin and in the computers. The good news for Lafayette is that they were playing their best ball late in the season, with a young squad that improved rapidly throughout the year. They had six players who earned 24 or more minutes per game, and four of them were freshmen or sophomores. The other two starters were seniors, though, so they will lose Tony Johnson (13.3 ppg, 59.4 eFG%, 4.8 apg, 1.9 spg) and Levi Giese (6.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.8 bpg). Lafayette's defense was already weak, so losing arguably their two best defenders is a concern, but their offense should be in good shape. Their ability to score efficiently, particularly in the paint, was what drove their late season success. They return Seth Hinrichs (14.5 ppg, 57.4 eFG%, 4.9 rpg) and 6'9" Dan Trist (12.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg), as well as a nice prospect in Bryce Scott (8.2 ppg, 42.7 3P%, 1.7 apg), their top 2012 recruit. Another 2012 recruit, 6'2" Zach Rufer, might be called upon to replace Tony Johnson at point guard. One thing that they desperately need is some size. 6'10" Nathaniel Musters played light minutes as a freshman, but is a possibility. 2013 recruit Michael Hoffman is an option, too.
Army was one of the most underrated mid-majors in the nation - they were actually higher rated in Pomeroy than Lafayette. Army led the Patriot League in eFG%, 3P%, FT% and OR%. So how was it that they weren't the most efficient offensive team (Lafayette was)? Ballhandling. They turned the ball over on a terrible 20.7% of their possessions this season, dead last in the Patriot League. The good news is that their starting point guard was a freshman and can only get better (Dylan Cox - 5.8 ppg, 55.3 eFG%, 5.0 rpg, 3.2 apg). In fact, five of their top seven minute earners were freshmen. The problem is that the other two were seniors. The tougher loss, without question, is Ella Ellis (17.8 ppg, 41.9 3P%, 3.8 rpg). They do return an efficient scorer in Kyle Wilson (13.0 ppg, 41.6 3P%, 2.3 rpg, 1.8 apg), and have a good big man prospect in 6'10" Kevin Ferguson (3.5 ppg and 3.1 rpg in only 12.4 mpg, with a 59.5 FG%).
Loyola-Maryland had a really nice season, finishing in the Top 125 in every computer rating, including Top 100 in RPI. They won a couple of games (including taking out Boston University) before losing to East Carolina in the quarterfinals of the CIT. But they're going to take a big step backwards next season. Four of their top six minute earners were seniors, and they also lost head coach Jimmy Patsos to Siena. It's going to be a rebuilding year for them.
Of the newcomers, Boston University has a much better chance to compete right away. They didn't have a single senior in their regular rotation, and have an array of quality shooters (they led the America East in both 2P% and 3P% shooting). They are led by DJ Irving (14.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.6 apg) and Dom Morris (11.6 ppg, 58.5 eFG%, 6.3 rpg), and have a pair of really nice prospects in Maurice Watson (11.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5.4 apg) and John Papale (9.3 ppg, 41.9 3P%, 2.6 rpg), both of whom were true freshmen this past season. And their top 2013 recruit, 6'3" Cedric Hankerson, turned down multiple offers from BCS conference schools to join BU. It's pretty amazing how much talent Joe Jones is putting together at BU.
It was a bit of a letdown that we didn't get to see full-strength Lehigh and Bucknell go at it this past season. But while there might not be superstars like Mike Muscala or CJ McCollum next season, the league should actually be better from top to bottom. Bucknell is going to take a bit step back, but Lehigh shouldn't be going anywhere, and Lafayette, Army and Boston University should all be stronger. While I really like that Army team, I just don't think they have the top end talent. I question whether Lafayette can win the league if their defense is even worse than it was this past season. So in my opinion, this pick comes down to Lehigh versus Boston University. You can't go wrong either way, but I really love the raw talent that Joe Jones is assembling at Boston University. I think he finally breaks through and gets into the NCAA Tournament. Boston University is my pick.
Davidson continues to get mentioned in conference realignment rumors, but for the time being they are still staying in the SoCon, so they'll stay in this preview. And they were, of course, the class of the SoCon this past season. They had a heartbreaking collapse in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament against Marquette that ended their season a bit prematurely. College of Charleston is on their way out of the league, which robs Davidson of their top foil the past few years. Elon was the only other SoCon team to go to a postseason tournament, falling in the first round of the CIT to Canisius.
Obviously, our discussion of the SoCon has to start with Davidson. They have won five regular season titles and five tournament titles in the past eight seasons. They lose three starters to graduation, though, led by Jake Cohen (14.9 ppg, 38.8 3P%, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 bpg) and Nik Cochran (9.9 ppg, 63.2 eFG%, 3.3 apg). Their front court should still be in excellent shape, led by rising-seniors De'Mon Brooks (13.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Chris Czerapowicz (9.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The backcourt is a question mark, though. Tyler Kalinoski (55.7 eFG%) is a good shooter, but they're going to need a point guard. It looks pretty clear that the point will be turned over to 2013 recruit Jack Gibbs. Their highest rated 2013 recruit is actually 6'8" Andrew McAuliffe (Scout: 30 C).
With College of Charleston gone, the second best SoCon team that will be returning to the conference next season was Elon. Elon should be in good shape next season, too, without a single senior in their starting lineup. In fact, they'll actually get back a key player - Austin Hamilton (7.7 ppg, 3.3 apg), who was lost for the season to injury in mid-January. Their top scorer was Lucas Troutman (15.1 ppg, 54.6 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg), and they have a really nice shooting guard prospect in Tanner Samson (7.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg and 1.7 apg as a true freshman). There's no question that Elon will be better next season. The question is, can they close the massive gap between them and Davidson?
The fourth best SoCon team in efficiency margin in conference play, after Davidson, Charleston and Elon? That would be Samford, believe it or not. And Samford achieved that with a starting lineup made up entirely of freshmen and sophomores. It's no wonder that they got better as the season went along. Their primary playmaker is Raijon Kelly (14.1 ppg, 40.4 3P%, 4.7 apg), and their best all-around talent is Tim Williams (14.2 ppg and 7.1 rpg as a true freshman).
If there's a sleeper team next season (other than Samford), I think it has to be Western Carolina. According to Sagarin and Pomeroy, it was they and not Samford who were the fourth best team this past season. And they also return every player from their regulation, and will likely start four seniors next season. Their top returners are the inside-outside combo of Trey Sumler (18.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.9 spg) and Tawaski King (11.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg). They also have an athletic prospect in Mike Brown (3.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg and 1.1 apg as a true freshman).
The Southern Conference is a tough league to project. We know that Davidson will not be as good next season, and we also know that Elon, Samford and Western Carolina are all going to be improved and are going to significantly close the gap. But there was an awfully large gap between those teams and Davidson this past season, and Davidson still has Bob McKillop and some talented young prospects. Can that entire gap be closed in one season? Honestly, I'd bet against it. In my opinion, Davidson is still the favorite in the SoCon.
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8 comments:
The piece on the Patriot League has so many errors and omissions that it would take hours just to list them all.
What is the point of writing it if you're going to do no research whatsoever??
Do you have any specific criticisms, or are you just not happy where I ranked your team?
Never mind, I just checked and saw that this preview got posted on a Holy Cross forum and there are a bunch of angry people there.
Anyway, if I made any specific errors, please tell me. My regular readers know that I always am humble about mistakes and give credit to those who pointed out the error. If you're just angry at where I ranked your team, I can't help you unless you give me a substantive reason why my prognostication was wrong. Remember, this preview was done more than three months ago and does not incorporate anything that has happened since.
Be aware that I correctly picked the last three Patriot League champions preseason, and the last time I missed (the 2009-10 season) I incorrectly picked Holy Cross. So the evidence seems to suggest I'm not a Holy Cross hater.
Here are a few comments about the errors and omissions in the Patriot League article:
1. For Bucknell, you mention that sub “. Ryan Frazier is a decent playmaker, but not much of a scorer” – which is why he didn’t start last year and will not start this year. You fail to mention that Bucknell returns TWO point guards who have started virtually every game the last two years.
2. Bucknell also returns big man Brian Fitzpatrick, who was very good off the bench two years ago but was slowed by injuries this past year. He will likely be a key starter this year, although he is not mentioned.
3. You say Bucknell’s “ 2013 recruiting class doesn't have anybody particularly highly touted.” I don’t know how you define that, but John Azzinaro got three stars from Rivals and was 1st team all-state in Texas' 4A category for each of the past two years. For a mid-major conference, I’d say that’s fairly highly touted.
4. For Lehigh, you say “They return one proven playmaker (Corey Schaefer - 4.6 ppg, 54.0 eFG%, 2.1 apg)”. Schaefer is an OK guy off the bench – BUT you didn’t even mention Lehigh’s returning all-league PG, Mackey McKnight!
5. You tout Lehigh’s Devon Carter, who you mistakenly say “missed most of the season with a knee injury.” In reality, he didn’t hurt his knee until the second week of January. Well before that time, Lehigh had discovered he couldn’t play at the PL level. He was their last man off the bench – behind a walk-on. Maybe he will miraculously raise his game by 100% this year – but it’s doubtful.
6. You mention BJ Bailey returning for Lehigh, even though he graduated and is gone.
7. Lehigh has some good freshmen (and a redshirt soph) who may contribute quite a bit – but none are mentioned in the article.
8. With the loss of Knutson, Greiner, and Bailey – all very good players – plus McCollum, the chance of your prediction being accurate, i.e. that Lehigh “could actually be a better team next season than they were this past season”, is somewhere between very slim and zero.
9. You say that Lafayette’s “ability to score efficiently, particularly in the paint, was what drove their late season success.” The only scoring in the paint done by Lafayette was by their great PG, Tony Johnson, on drives, plus an occasional jump hook by Trist. Other than that, LC’s entire offense is based on looking for 3-point attempts. They were 24th in the nation in pct of points attributable to threes. Hinrichs, Ptasinski, Giese, Scott, and Rufer all live or die with the three - and that has pretty much been LC's entire offense for the past decade.
10. Rufer played SG last year – even when Tony Johnson was out – so it is unlikely he will be called upon to replace Tony Johnson. That role will likely go to a combination of Bryce Scott and incoming freshman Nick Lindner.
11. Regarding Army, it’s technically correct to say that “five of their top seven minute earners were freshmen ... (and) the other two were seniors.” However that is largely irrelevant for 2013-14 since their top eight down the stretch consisted of one senior. one junior, one soph, and five freshmen. With those returnees and a few good plebes, Army should be very tough this year.
12. Yes, Loyola lost four of their top six in terms of minutes – but only three of the top six in terms of minutes per game. Also, senior Julius Brooks was not much of a factor later in the year. With those three, plus a couple returning role players and the addition of a redshirt and a transfer this year, it looked like they could be a 2013-14 contender when the season ended. However, that was before the key factor of their offseason occurred, i.e that all four members of a very good recruiting class defected after Patsos left.
13. Looking at the returning talent, it does not come down to Boston U and Lehigh. It is just Boston U. In addition to Boston, it is likely that Lafayette, Army, and possibly Bucknell will also be ranked ahead of Lehigh in the preseason poll. That doesn’t mean that’s where they will finish however.
Forgot one:
Lehigh's BJ Bailey did not "miss most of last season". He played 18 of LU's 31 games. It would have been accurate, however, to say that he missed most of the regular season conference games.
Most of those corrections are me not mentioning some people. I'm not going to talk about every guy on every team - I need to keep these previews to a reasonable length. And my goal is not to just mention the three best guys on each team - I'm talking to the guys who I think are most relevant to whether the team will be better or worse next season. Me not mentioning a player doesn't mean I don't know that they exist.
The BJ Bailey correction is noted, though. He was listed everywhere I looked as a junior, so I guess that was an error. Sorry for that mistake.
A couple times I'm being criticized for using total minutes instead of minutes per game - that's actually intentional. Total minutes matters for total productivity more than minutes per game. If Player A plays 30 minutes per game for 30 games and Player B plays 35 minutes per game for 20 games, who had the larger impact on the season?
I don't particularly care what the media preseason polls say. My previews tend to be significantly more accurate than the preseason media polls. And in the end you agree with me that Boston U is the favorite anyway, no?
I disagree with most of what you said. It's interesting that you chose not to address most of the points - especially the ones about the numerous factual errors (other than the one about BJ Bailey). It's clear you spent almost no time looking at the PL. A few questions, if you'd care to answer them:
1. What was the reason for talking about Lehigh's backup PG and calling him a "proven playmaker" - and not even mentioning their all-league starting PG, who is a POY candidate? Do you think a backup is "most relevant" to LU's 2013-14 performance as opposed to an all-league starter?
2. What was the reason for listing Bucknell's backup 2G - and talking about his "playmaking" - and yet not mentioning their two returning starting PG's?
3. With Lafayette being a team who lives and dies by the three - which has been Fran O'Hanlon's offense for over a decade - why did you talk (erroniously) about how strong they are in the paint?
4. Minutes are only relevant to predicting next year if they reflect where a team was late in the year. Losing a player who was no longer relevant is not worth mentioning.
5. Why no mention/correction of your two factual errors about Lehigh's Davon Carter?
6. Do you still stick with your comment that Lehigh might be better next year?
7. What about your comment about 2G Rufer being called upon to be the starting Lafayette PG?
8. I'd like to hear you defend your assertion that a three star recruit who was twice a 1st team Texas 4A all-state is not "particularly highly touted".
9. I seriously doubt your previews have been more accurate than the PL preseason poll.
You should try being this personally insulting on other websites and see if you generally get responses from the author that are half the length that you got from me.
And yes, my previews tend to be significantly more accurate than the media polls. There are several reasons for that, but mostly it's because I use the advanced metrics for the previous season as my baseline rather than won/loss records.
Anyway, I don't have time to go through a gigantic list of complaints. Just a few notes... Who are these two supposed great point guards who have started every game for Bucknell? Ayers and Ryan Hill? Ayers is a scoring guard who does very little passing while Ryan Hill just sucks (48 assists to 43 turnovers, and a 45.1 eFG%).
As for John Azzinaro, he got 3 stars on Rivals, 2 stars on ESPN (94th ranked PG in the 2013 class) and no rating on Scout.com. That's quite a stretch for "highly touted".
As for Devon Carter, who was rated by some sources significantly higher than Azzinaro... he played less than two months as a true freshman before being hurt and you're choosing to give up on him. That's fine, but you can't say that it's a "factual error" to point out that plenty of people think he will be a key member of Lehigh in the future.
The fact that I disagree with you on some subjective ratings of players doesn't mean that I'm an idiot who knows nothing. It means that we disagree on some subjective ratings of players.
In the future, please be more constructive with your arguments and try to improve your facts-to-insults ratio.
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