The Big West has had greater seasons. Pacific won the league's bid to the NCAA Tournament, where they went down quietly to Miami. More importantly, they already knew that they were off to the WCC, so they weren't even really representing the Big West. Long Beach State earned the automatic bid to the NIT, where they were annihilated by Baylor 112-66. The only team to win a game in any postseason tournament was UC Irvine, who beat High Point by 3 points in the CIT before getting crushed by Oral Robert. Not good.
Anyway, with Pacific gone, let's start with regular season champions Long Beach State. Dan Monson's 49ers were looking good in the second half of the season, winning 12 of 13 regular season games at one point. But they faded down the stretch, losing 5 of their final 7 games, including that debacle against Baylor in the NIT. Their defensive breakdown against Baylor did not come out of nowhere, because they basically just stopped playing defense late in the season. They allowed at least 1.1 PPP in each of their final five games. They also lose their best all-around player (James Ennis - 16.5 ppg, 56.5 eFG%, 6.7 rpg, 1.8 spg, 1.3 bpg) and spot-up shooter Peter Pappageorge (6.9 ppg, 37.0 3P%). With defensive problems, the loss of their two most efficient offensive players is definitely a problem. Two of the young players that are going to have to improve and take over some of the load are 2012-13 freshmen 6'6" Deng Deng and shooting guard Javion Watson. Watson redshirted this past season and still has four years of eligibility, while Deng Deng did nothing but shoot a lot of threes poorly (30.7%). 6'5" Keala King, the transfer from Arizona State, should have had a better season. He has one year of eligibility left. It was always going to be a little bumpy replacing the Casper Ware/Larry Anderson roster, and winning the Big West regular season title is a huge success all things considered, but things are going to continue being bumpy until Monson can find a new young core to build around.
According to the computers, the best team in the Big West was not Long Beach State or Pacific, but Cal Poly. The Mustangs won 9 of 10 games before falling by two points to Pacific in the Big West tournament. They appeared to be pretty unmotivated in the CIT, as they fell 85-43 to Weber State. But at +0.08 PPP, they were tied for the best efficiency margin in Big West play, and did it with the best offense in the conference. They do lose sharpshooter Dylan Royer (10.1 ppg, 42.9 3P%), Drake U'u (5.3 ppg, 2.5 apg) and sixth man Chris O'Brien (5.1 ppg, 55.4 eFG%, 53.8 3P%). They have one more season of star Chris Eversley (15.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.0 apg) and also have a really nice star of the future in rising-sophomore Brian Bennett (9.3 ppg, 52.4 FG%, 4.6 rpg). A key newcomer is 6'7" Zachary Allmon, who was a higher rated 2012 recruit than Bennett but after losing the position battle preseason decided to redshirt. With Jamal Johnson handling the point again, Cal Poly should have a ton of size. They're going to have to find a way to replace that graduating outside shooting, and defense is going to have to improve for them to take the next step.
There were four teams seriously in consideration for the Big West title. I've talked about three of them, and the fourth was UC Irvine. The Anteaters played better early in the season than later, though. They beat USC and Fresno State in non-conference play, and lost in OT to UCLA and nearly knocked off Southern Miss as well. But they never took the next step in conference play because they were not scoring efficiently. They ended up 7th in the Big West with only 1.02 PPP in conference play. More than anything they lacked a go-to scorer, though sophomore Will Davis (9.7 ppg, 55.2 FG%, 6.8 rpg, 2.4 bpg) seemed to move into that role late in the season. They do lose a pair of starters to graduation - Adam Folker and Michael Wilder - but I don't think either loss is significant. Wilder was an outside shooting who couldn't shoot (6.2 3PAs per game at a 31.4% clip). Folker's size will be missed alongside Will Davis, but they do have a lot of other young talent to choose from. 2012 recruit Conor Clifford and 2013 recruits Mamdou Ndiaye and Giannis Dimakopolous. 7'5" Ndiaye (Scout: 20 C) is the star of the bunch, but he's extremely raw, so it's hard to project too much from him as a true freshman. Though if nothing else, these 7-footers alongside Will Davis could give UC Irvine an awfully good defense. One other key addition is 6'3" Dominique Dunning, a transfer from New Mexico.
Outside of those teams, UC Davis and Hawaii are two squads that might be improved next season. Both teams lose a couple of starters but have a clear star to build around - UC Davis has Corey Hawkins (20.3 ppg, 40.0 3P%, 3.3 apg) and Hawaii has former-Nebraska player Christian Standhardinger (15.8 ppg, 53.0 eFG%, 7.9 rpg). But the sleeper team in the Big West, in my opinion, is UC Santa Barbara. The Gauchos were better than their record (only 2-6 in conference play in games decided by six points or less), and they return their top six minute earners, led by 6'7" Alan Williams (17.1 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 2.3 bpg). They also have a decent point guard in TJ Taylor (4.8 ppg, 40.5 3P%, 4.1 apg) and a 41.9% three-point shooter in Kyle Boswell. Their biggest needs are reduced turnovers (they were dead last in the Big West in offensive turnover rate) and perimeter defense. Losing 2012 point guard recruit Dalante Dunklin is a problem for both of those issues. One good option to improve perimeter play is 6'4" Aamahd Walker, who redshirted this past season and still has four years of eligibility.
Long Beach State is again the Big West team with the greatest potential ceiling. They have a good coach in Dan Monson and have an easier time recruiting than the other Big West schools. But Monson needs to restock the cupboards, and I don't think Long Beach State is the favorite for another title. Cal Poly should contend again, and I like UC Santa Barbara to move into the top tier of the conference, but the team I really like is UC Irvine. The Anteaters are going to have an absurd amount of size and should have the best defense in the league. Lack of shooting could hold them back, but at this point I give the narrow edge to UC Irvine.
For a long time this looked like a weak season for the Ivy League. After actually having two teams on the periphery of the at-large debate in 2011-12, both Harvard and Princeton took a step back. Princeton had to deal with the loss of Douglas Davis, but Harvard's problems were much larger. Stars Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry ended up in an academic scandal that forced them to leave school for a year, forcing Harvard to play with a far younger lineup this season than originally planned. Tommy Amaker eventually figured out the right lineup for his young players, though, and Harvard was at their best late in the season. They stole the Ivy League title and then stunned New Mexico in the NCAA Tournament. With Casey and Curry presumably still on course to come back next season, Harvard suddenly looks awfully dangerous.
Let's start with that Harvard team. Coming into the season, Laurent Rivard was the only real proven quality Ivy League player. Wesley Saunders and Christian Webster were the other key returners. Webster is graduating now, but he was never a particularly good player. Saunders (16.2 ppg, 53.8 eFG%, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.8 spg) still has two more years of eligibility left. Right off the bat, freshman Siyani Chambers emerged as a really nice point guard (12.4 ppg, 5.7 apg, 1.5 spg) - he's also very young and has room to grow in the future. The biggest change late in the season was the rapid improvement of 6'8" sophomore Kenyatta Smith (5.8 ppg, 57.0 FG%, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg). Steve Mondou-Missi (7.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.9 bpg) was another good big man presence. They also have a pair of 6'8" 2012 prospects who didn't play much as freshmen but have a lot of raw talent - Agunwa Okolie and Mike Hall - and have another big man prospect in 6'9" Zena Edosoomwan (Scout: 19 PF, Rivals: 69). Assuming Kyle Casey comes back, Harvard is going to have an absurd amount of front court talent and athleticism next season. With Brandyn Curry back to join Siyani Chambers, Harvard will have two really good offensive playmaker (both are good perimeter defenders as well). We know that, assuming Casey and Curry are back, Harvard is going to be awfully good. The biggest question might be how Tommy Amaker juggles the minutes for all of these guys.
Can Princeton challenge Harvard next season? Honestly, probably not. They lose Ian Hummer (16.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.1 apg) to graduation, as well as a pair of bench big men (Brendan Connolly and Mack Darrow). They do still have a bunch of big guys who can shoot the ball well, led by 6'10" Will Barrett (9.3 ppg, 51.6 P%, 62.7 eFG%, 4.7 rpg). I also like rising-sophomore Hans Brase (5.4 ppg, 43.5 3P%, 4.2 rpg). The big concern for them, with the graduation of Ian Hummer, is ball handling. Without a true point guard, 6'7" Ian Hummer was the team's primary offensive playmaker. TJ Bray, who at 6'5" is more of a swing man, is probably most likely to handle the offensive load next season. But so much of their offense was based on Hummer drawing defenders and finding open outside shooters. If all of their young players continue to develop, they could get back into the Top 100, but not much higher. With Harvard a borderline Top 25 team, Princeton will really regret missing their chance this past season to take the Ivy League crown.
At this point you already know that I'm going to be picking Harvard as the Ivy League champion. But let's say Harvard's season blows up again (like another set of academic suspensions)... who besides Princeton can challenge for the title? The obvious picks are Yale and Pennsylaniva, so let's go through them briefly. Pennsylvania has historically been one of the top Ivy League teams, but the 2012-13 squad was very young and struggled to replace Zach Rosen and Tyler Bernardini. The offense was turned over to freshman Tony Hicks (10.4 ppg and 2.0 apg) alongside junior Miles Cartwright (13.5 ppg, 3.8 apg). They have a nice up-and-coming big man in 6'11" rising-sophomore Darrien Nelson-Henry (7.6 ppg, 54.0 FG%, 4.1 rpg, 0.9 bpg), and I also would like to see more playing time for 5'11" sharpshooter Patrick Lucas-Perry (5.0 ppg, 44.7 3P%). With every player from their regular rotation returning, their biggest need is filling roster holes. The biggest hole this past season was at point guard. They were dead last in the Ivy League in turnover percentage, which was so bad that they were dead last in the Ivy League in offensive efficiency, despite being 4th in 3P% and 5th in OR%. While Tony Hicks will be expected to play more under control as a sophomore, a big addition is Alexis Moore, who played 25 minutes per game primarily at point guard (with 4.3 ppg and 1.5 apg) for USC in 2011-12.
Yale was third in efficiency margin in Ivy League play this past season (+0.03 PPP) and loses only one starter to graduation. They also finished the season really strong, winning 7 of their final 10 games. They swept Penn and Princeton, and lost their two games to Harvard by a combined nine points. The one starter that they lose is Austin Morgan (10.9 ppg, 36.4 3P%, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg). They lose their other sharpshooter off the bench (Sam Martin), which means that shooting will be at a premium next season. Their strength this past season, though, was on the offensive glass. They led the Ivy League in OR%, powered by freshman Justin Sears (9.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.7 orpg) and sophomore Matt Townsend (7.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg). Sears is particularly intriguing - as a freshman playing only 22 minutes per game he finished second in the Ivy League in offensive rebounds per game, behind only Brown's Rafael Maia.
If there's a sleeper Ivy League team, it has to be Columbia. The Lions got off to an awfully good start to the season, beating Villanova and sitting in the low-100s in the computers. But they finished the season an incomprehensibly unlucky 0-10 in games decided by six points or less. It also hurt their quality of play, which faded late in the season. They ended up finishing the Ivy League only fifth in efficiency margin (-0.03 PPP) and finished dead last in the standings. They do lose a pair of starters to graduation - Brian Barbour (12.1 ppg, 4.0 apg, 1.6 spg) and Mark Cisco (8.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg) - but the rest of the team was pretty young. I like a lot of their freshmen this past season, led by Grant Mullins (9.3 ppg, 37.4 3P%, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg). They also have a nice prospect in 2012 top recruit Isaac Cohen. There's no reason to expect Columbia to be significantly better next season, but they don't have to be significantly better to hang around the Top 100 in the computers, which would make them competitive with Princeton and Penn.
But the last few paragraphs were only written in case Harvard blows up. Because let's be honest, a full strength Harvard team with Brandyn Curry and Kyle Casey back is going to run away with the Ivy League.
It has been a tough, well, decade for the MAC. Things were starting to look up this season, with both Ohio and Akron looking like scary NCAA Tournament teams. Akron was actually on the bubble for much the season, and only fell off in the final couple of weeks. But the reason they fell off the bubble was because the team started to fade late. The killer was the arrest and suspension of point guard Alex Abreu, their second best player. And after sneaking away with the MAC tournament title, they ended up with a terrible draw against VCU. They were the perfect opponent for VCU - they were outside the Top 200 in the nation in offensive turnover rate even with Abreu, and then they were without him. And their clear star, 7-footer Zeke Marshall, was going to be mostly useless in the up-and-down #havoc that VCU forces. Akron inevitably got wiped out. The final score was a staggering 88-42. Ohio ended up earning an at-large bid to the NIT, where they fell to Denver in the first round. Kent State went to the CIT, where they beat Fairfield before falling to Loyola-Maryland. Western Michigan probably had the most impressive postseason run of any MAC team - they went to the CBI, where they made it to the semifinals by beating North Dakota State and Wyoming before falling to George Mason. Keep in mind that Toledo could not play in the postseason because of a low APR score.
Let's start with that Akron team, since they were tops in the conference. They only lose one starter to graduation, but that's a very deceptive statistic. First of all, the starter that they lose is star 7-footer Zeke Marshall (13.0 ppg, 65.5 eFG%, 7.0 rpg, 3.7 bpg). I know that seniors so rarely get drafted by the NBA, but Marshall has improved so drastically throughout his collegiate career (I saw him play in person when he was a sophomore, and he was a gangly mess), that I think he'd be a very smart second round NBA draft pick. Also, while Alex Abreu technically has one year of eligibility remaining, it seems awfully unlikely that he's going to get to use it. Unless police have totally screwed up, he's in a lot of trouble and will likely see jail time. Who do they have going forward? They return three solid starters in power forward Demetrius Treadwell and swing men Brian Walsh and Jake Kretzer. I also like the potential of top 2012 recruit Reggie McAdams (4-6 ppg and 1.3 rpg in only 12.3 mpg, with a 54.1 eFG%). But they presumably need a new point guard, and they're a team that relied so heavily on the interior defensive presence of Zeke Marshall. I just don't see how Akron doesn't take a pretty significant step backward next season.
Ohio, honestly, was a disappointment this season. Basically everybody returned from a team that won 29 games and went to the Sweet 16 before falling in overtime to North Carolina. They lost John Groce to Illinois, and that's probably the biggest culprit. Jim Christian seems to be a pretty good head coach - he had a lot of success at Kent State - but that doesn't mean that he was ideal to coach John Groce's players. And now, Ohio loses four starters to graduation, led by DJ Cooper (14.1 ppg, 53.1 eFG%, 7.0 apg, 2.0 spg) and Walter Offutt (10.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg). The other two graduating starters hare Reggie Keely and Ivo Baltic. The one starter that they return is Nick Kellogg (8.0 ppg, 54.1 eFG%, 1.4 apg), and they have a proven bench player in Jon Smith (48 ppg, 60.7 FG%, 3.6 rpg, 1.4 bpg). Outside of those two, though, the roster is full of a whole lot of question marks with a coach only entering his second season at the program. The future will be about how Jim Christian restocks the cupboards. His 2013 recruiting class is heavy on junior college guys, the highest rated of which seems to be 6'3" DJ Wingfield. The reliance on Juco players seems to imply that Ohio is going to try to stay near the top of the league and is not going to go into total rebuilding mode. They do have only one more year with Nick Kellogg. But it's hard to see them contending for another MAC title next season.
Since Western Michigan had the most successful postseason of any MAC team, we should talk about them next. Their strength this past season was a big front line that made them strong defensively in the paint and also one of the better rebounding teams in the MAC. They lose Nate Hutcheson to graduation (10.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.7), but return starters Shayne Whittington (13.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.7 bpg) and Darius Paul (10.4 ppg and 5.7 rpg as a freshman). The other starter that they lose in shooting guard Brandon Pokley (8.9 ppg, 38.7 3P%), but I do like some of their young 2012 prospects who could fill that role, led by Taylor Perry. There's no reason to think that Western Michigan will be worse next season, but in order to take the next step to being a Top 100 team they are going to need better point guard play and offensive playmaking. Austin Richie was a pretty useless point guard this past season, and 2012 recruit Jared Klein had a really rough freshman campaign. One of them is going to have to improve significantly in the offseason.
Kent State finished the regular season playing very well. They won 7 of their final 8 games prior to the MAC tournament, where they eventually fell by 3 points to Akron. They lose their top two scorers to graduation (Chris Evans - 16.2 ppg, Randal Holt - 14.7 ppg). The bigger loss of the two is Evans - not because of being the leading scorer but because he was the focal point in the paint. Kent State's strength this past season was getting to the line and outside shooting. Evans was a big reason for the former (he earned 5.8 FTs/game), and his presence opened up the latter. While Kent State does return most of their good shooters (led by rising-juniors Kris Brewer and Devareaux Manley), they might not have as many without Evans in the middle. One prospect to keep an eye on is 6'9" Khaliq Spicer, who barely played this past season but was Kent State's top 2012 recruit.
Toledo was ineligible for the postseason, which inevitably made them invisible on the national scene, but they ended up finishing in a tie for third place in the MAC standings. They only had one senior in their regular rotation as well: Dominique Buckley (9.7 ppg, 1.9 apg, 1.4 spg). They have one more season of the offense revolving around Rian Pearson (17.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg), and also one more season of their best all-around player, Matt Smith (9.8 ppg, 44.4 3P%, 61.4 eFG%, 3.6 rpg). They also have a nice prospect in top 2012 recruit, Nathan Boothe (8.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg). Toledo also adds 6'6" JD Weatherspoon, who scored 3.0 ppg for Ohio State in 2010-11. They add more size in 6'8" recruit Zach Garber.
If I have to take a sleeper team in the MAC next season, I think it has to be Buffalo. They were better than their final record (an unlucky 4-9 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime), and lose only one regular to graduation (Tony Watson - 11.3 ppg, 41.6 3P%, 3.6 apg). They have other outside shooters, though, and have one more season of star Javon McCrea (18.0 ppg, 55.7 FG%, 7.9 rpg, 2.6 bpg). The question is, what happens with the change to Bobby Hurley? The Hurley Brothers have a background that you'd think would make them great coaches, and they've done a spectacular job together the past few years, but Bobby will now be off on his own as a head coach. It will be interesting to see how well these two handle being by themselves. If Bobby can keep this whole roster together, maybe add a recruit or two over the summer, and then be as good of a program manager alone as he and his brother were with Wagner and Rhode Island, then it's not that inconceivable to think Buffalo could contend for a MAC title in 2013-14.
With Akron and Ohio presumably taking large steps back, the MAC is going to be wide open next season. Not a single team looks particularly likely to end up in the Top 100, but I do think there are a few clear contenders. Western Michigan and Kent State are two teams that should be in contention, and I think Buffalo is in good shape if Bobby Hurley can keep his roster together. But to me, the favorite is Toledo. They are a steady, fundamentally strong team that should be improved next year, with an underrated coach. Nobody is going to run away with the MAC next season, but I give the preseason edge to Toledo.
I'm not sure who designed the MEAC regular season schedule, but they suck. The two best teams in the league were Norfolk State and NC Central, yet neither team played each other even once all season long. In a 13 team league with a 16 game schedule, every team really needs to play every other team at least once. And if NC Central hadn't gotten tripped up in a tight road game at Savannah State, we'd have finished the MEAC regular season with a pair of 16-0 teams. That's just dumb. In the end, it didn't really matter since the 1, 2, 3 and 4 seed all lost in the MEAC tournament quarterfinals. I can't recall ever seeing that in a conference tournament. In the end, North Carolina A&T stole the auto bid, and they managed to steal a 1 point win over Liberty in a 16/16 First Four game before getting wiped off the floor by Louisville in the Round of 64. Norfolk State earned the auto bid to the NIT, where they lost to Virginia in the first round. Savannah State was the only MEAC team that was voluntarily accepted into a postseason tournament - they went to the CIT and lost in the first round to East Carolina.
I suppose we need to talk briefly about North Carolina A&T, since they will be the defending MEAC tournament champion. But realistically, they're not competing for another title next season. Of the eight players who earned at least 10 minutes per game this past season, five will graduate, including three starters. The toughest losses are Adrian Powell (12.3 ppg, 36.5 3P%, 4.9 rpg, 1.8 spg) and Lamont Middleton (12.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg). Their top prospect going forward has to be Bruce Beckford (8.2 ppg, 55.0 FG%, 4.5 rpg as a freshman). With all of those losses, there's almost no way North Carolina A&T can avoid being even weaker next season.
We can talk next about the MEAC's regular season champions: Norfolk State. They went 16-0, but that had more to do with how soft the MEAC was more than anything. Their best win all season came against a Rhode Island team that went 3-13 in the Atlantic Ten. The success they had came from a relatively strong backcourt, on both sides of the ball. Their premier play maker was Jamel Fuentes (4.9 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.8 spg). He returns for one more season, as does their best all around offensive player, Pendarvis Williams (14.3 ppg, 40.6 3P%, 4.5 rpg, 1.7 apg). They lose one starter to graduation, 6'8" power forward Rob Johnson (9.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg), but their front court should be in okay shape with several proven, younger options. 7-footer Brandon Goode (7.7 ppg, 58.6 FG%, 5.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg) will be back, as will Rashid Gaston (8.3 ppg, 56.0 FG%, 6.3 rpg as a freshman). Gaston is particularly important because he's the same size as the graduating Johnson, but was more efficient as a freshman than Johnson was as a senior. He should be strong in extended minutes. They also add 6'8" Grant Hefeng, who played light minutes as a freshman for Fresno State in 2011-12.
While they finished a game back in the standings, NC Central was far and away the leader in efficiency margin in MEAC play (+0.19 PPP vs +0.11 PPP for Norfolk State, who won 11 of their 16 games by 7 points or less), and they were also the clear #1 according to Sagarin and Pomeroy. Their success came from a strong defense that allowed only 0.84 PPP in conference play. Their backcourt was also decent offensively, by MEAC standards. They actually led the conference in 3P% at 35.4%, which is kind of sad if you think about it. But they should be in good shape for next season with only one senior in the regular rotation - Ray Willis (12.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg). They will have three senior starters next year, led by playmaker Emanuel Chapman (4.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) and interior scorer Stanton Kidd (14.5 ppg, 58.3 eFG%, 6.9 rpg). A big need is offensive rebounding, where they were worst in the MEAC last season. Help could come from added minutes for 6'7" rising-junior Jay Copeland (7.3 ppg, 57.6 FG%, 4.4 rpg). There's a good chance that NC Central will be an even better team next season, and I don't think there's any question that they'll be contending for the MEAC title.
The most underrated team in the league this past season was probably Morgan State. They were a rough 2-5 in conference regular season games decided by five points or less or in overtime, and also were at their strongest late in the season, winning 11 of 12 games (including a good road Bracketbusters win over High Point) before falling to North Carolina A&T in the MEAC title game. Their most effective skill, without question, was their ability to get the ball near the rim and score. Of their perimeter creators, they lose Anthony Hubbard (11.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.4 apg), but retain Justin Black (14.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.9 apg). They also lose 6'8" Dewayne Jackson (13.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.7 spg) but retain 7'2" Ian Chiles (9.3 ppg, 53.5 FG%, 5.2 rpg, 1.7 bpg). They can replace a lot of Jackson's minutes with 6'8" sixth man Shaquille Duncan (7.3 ppg, 58.6 FG%, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 bpg), but after that their depth gets a bit thin. They got very little out of their freshman class and don't have much of a 2013 class lined up yet, and are in desperate need of shooters. So for now, I think Morgan State will be in the top half of the league but not in the class of Norfolk State or NC Central.
If there's a sleeper for next season, I think it has to be Hampton. They were a soft 11-5 this past season, but they return their top six minute earners from this past season. Their primary playmaker going forward is 5'11" Deron Powers, who led the team in points (11.9 per game) and assists (4.6 per game) as a freshman. Powers wasn't even the top recruit in their 2012 class - 6'7" Dionte Adams was. Adams is a raw talent who played sparingly as a freshman, but he's obviously a guy to look for in the future. Outside of Powers, their top returner is rising-senior Du'Vaughn Maxwell (10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.5 bpg). In a league with decent athletes but terrible offenses, Hampton is actually a halfway decent offense. They need to reduce the number of turnovers (Powers not being a freshman anymore should help), but they can score a lot in the paint. Winning the league outright might be a task too tall, but they should at least be in contention.
While Hampton is a team that should be in contention next season, it really does look like Norfolk State and NC Central will be the class of the league for another year. The MEAC is a really bizarre league to figure out because the defenses are athletic but the offenses stink. NC Central led the league with only 1.03 PPP in conference play, while the majority of the league (7 of 13 teams) held MEAC opponents to 0.90 PPP or fewer. The adjusted Pomeroy ratings reflect this. They rate the best offense in the league as 217th in the nation (Morgan State), but have five MEAC teams rated among the best 125 defenses in the nation, led by Savannah State at an astounding 30th (I didn't mention them in this preview, though, because despite keeping interior menace Jyles Smith for one more year they lose their top four minute earners to graduation). While Norfolk State finished one game clear of NC Central in the standings, they were significantly luckier. NC Central was the better team. Both teams lose similar amounts to graduation, and NC Central is the team better equipped to find some offense. Not only did NC Central lead the MEAC in PPP in conference play, but they were also far and away the best shooting team (they led the league in 2P%, 3P%, FT% and eFG%). So in my opinion, they are the team in the best position to win the league next season. NC Central is my pick.
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