Friday, November 15, 2013

Morning News: Arizona Beats San Diego State, UC Irvine Crushes Washington, BC Falls to 0-3

7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye had 9 blocks and controlled the paint against Washington

Best Win: #6 Arizona 69, San Diego State 60 San Diego State had a real chance at home here to be the first unranked team to knock off a ranked team this season. Arizona led basically the entire game, but some late foul trouble gave the Aztecs a shot late (though Arizona fans probably were not particularly happy with the foul disparity, which was nearly 2-to-1 until SDSU starting fouling intentionally late).

San Diego State looks exactly like what they are - a talented team that is missing their three best offensive players from last season. And last year's team, if you recall, was much better defensively than offensively to begin with. The San Diego State offense is just awfully ugly at times, and opponents are going to pack the paint until they prove they can hit an outside shot. Arizona, on the other hand, has a proven perimeter scorer in Nick Johnson and a really nice freshman in Aaron Gordon, the star recruit who was the best front court player for either team in this game.

Worst Loss: Washington It's not shocking that UC-Irvine, my preseason pick to win the Big West, beat Washington, a team that likely won't be on the Tournament bubble by the time March rolls around. But it's pretty shocking how badly Washington got taken to the woodshed here. UC Irvine actually led by 22 points midway through the 4th quarter before easing off the gas pedal. Mamadou Ndiaye and UC Irvine dominated the paint (the 7'6' Ndiaye had 9 blocks himself), holding Washington to a lot of long jumpers. In the end, the Anteaters hit 67% of their two-point attempts, compared to 38% for Washington.

There weren't a ton of high hopes for Washington, but their season is off to a brutal start, and the seat is definitely starting to get hotter under Lorenzo Romar. Meanwhile, UC-Irvine looks to be fairly strong. I had them as a 16 seed in my last bracket and will have to seriously consider moving them up in my next bracket.

Not Sure What To Make Of: Boston College It's going to be easy for people to give up on Boston College. They were only 7-11 in ACC play last season, and are now 0-3 this season, including a home loss to Toledo last night. That said, these losses really aren't that bad. Providence and UMass are both bubble-quality teams, and neither of those games was a true home game for the Golden Eagles. This Toledo loss is clearly the worst of the bunch, though Toledo is my pick to win the MAC this season and is a pretty good team in their own right.

So it's too premature to give up on this BC team. Next week they head to New York for the 2k Sports Classic, where they'll open against UConn. They need to win at least one of their two games there in order to start salvaging something from their non-conference schedule. As always, rebounding will be a concern for them (though they actually fought to a virtual draw on the boards against Toledo here).

Taking Care Of Business: Stanford Playing Northwestern probably seemed liked a bigger game for Stanford than it really was. Northwestern probably won't be on the bubble come Tournament time, while Stanford is a team I'm projecting to earn an at-large bid. I know I'm higher than most on Stanford, but they are an underrated team with an awfully efficient offense. Still, it's a good win, particularly coming off that tough, wild loss against BYU. They have an intriguing road game on Sunday against Denver. Keep an eye on that one as a potential bubble team probably wants to avoid multiple losses to mid-majors.

St. Mary's 78, North Dakota State 65 I just wanted to talk briefly about the last game of the night, which was an interesting battle against two underrated mid-majors. Despite losing Matthew Dellavedova and Mitchell Young, St. Mary's still looks to be a bubble quality team, and they've looked very strong in the early going this season. They haven't played on national tv or beaten a major conference foe, so you haven't heard their name on Sportscenter yet, but three double digit wins against three solid mid-majors (Akron, North Dakota State and Louisiana Tech) are a nice start.  Their one chance to play BCS conference teams will come at the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii during Christmas week. That will be a week that will have major implications for their NCAA Tournament seed (and whether they will get in at all).

North Dakota State, meanwhile, hung in pretty well here. They shot only 1-for-13 behind the arc and suffered a 30-to-18 free throw disparity, and were still in this game in the final minute. The Summit League has some other contenders (I talked about Nebraska-Omaha yesterday), but at this point North Dakota State remains a firm favorite not only to win the league but to have a real chance to win an NCAA Tournament game. The key to a 12 or 13 seed will be avoiding bad losses and trying to steal one or two decent victories. They get a chance on Monday for a solid victory over Southern Miss.

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