Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Morning News: Bachynski Blocks Marquette, Dayton Upsets Gonzaga, Syracuse Breaks Out Vs Minny

Jordan Bachynski blocks Derrick Wilson's shot to seal the win for Arizona State

Game Of The Night: Arizona State 79, #25 Marquette 77 This was a fantastic game that went back and forth throughout the second half. In the end, Marquette covered the 7 point spread (in other words, this wasn't an "upset") in a fantastic finish. After Arizona State botched their late-game clock management, Marquette had a chance to win in the final ten seconds that missed. Jermaine Marshall hit 1 of 2 at the free throw line, giving Marquette one final chance to tie... a chance that was swatted away at the buzzer by Jordan Bachynski's 7th block of the night.

What stood out in this game was Marquette's offense, which came out of nowhere. Their offense had been putrid to start the season, only breaking 0.88 PPP once - against the worst team in Division I (Grambling State). But here? 1.22 PPP, featuring 17 offensive rebounds to only 4 turnovers. I had been skeptical that their offense really was as bad as it had looked to start the season, which is why I still had Marquette as a 6 seed in my most recent bracket despite the computer ratings having them significantly worse. What's the real Marquette offense? Any conclusions at this point would just be guesses.

As for Arizona State, Marshall and Bachynski both had breakout games, and Jahii Carson remains great, but depth is going to be a concern for them. If either Carson or Bachynski had gotten a fourth foul midway through the second half here and had to come out, the Sun Devils probably would have lost the game. So expect this Arizona State team to be fairly inconsistent this season. They scream "bubble team".

Dayton Upsets Gonzaga Gonzaga seemed to have this game in hand, leading by as many as 16 points, but Dayton's offense scored 56 points in the second half and hit 6 consecutive free throws in the final 25 seconds to seal an 84-79 victory. In Gonzaga's defense here a little bit, they had some terrible foul trouble, with Sam Dower, Kevin Pangos and Przemek Karnowski all fouling out. But as I keep saying, in this new era of reffing this is going to happen to teams often. Unless you're a team that just never fouls, you're going to need to have the depth to overcome a couple guys fouling out when the reffing gets tight. And at the same time, Dayton is no Cleveland State. They are a team I have as an at-large team in my most recent bracket projection. This is a huge resume-building win for them, and they'll get a chance for another big scalp tonight, against Baylor.

Syracuse Offense Breaks Out Against Minnesota The Syracuse offensive woes weren't quite at Marquette levels, but there were many reasons for concern. This Orange roster just lacks offensive playmakers. They came into this game ranked 55th in Pomeroy adjusted offensive efficiency. You can take computer numbers for what they're worth in late November, but if that holds up it would be the worst Syracuse offense in 7 seasons. But they found their offense here, scoring 1.15 PPP against a pretty good Minnesota defense. The key was getting to the line, where they hit 82%.

Minnesota was undone late in this game with sloppy play. They committed 19 turnovers, with several coming in the final couple of minutes as they let this big win slip out of their fingers. They had not had ball handling problems earlier this season (they came in with a 13.5% turnover rate), so you have to wonder if the bigger stage against the bigger opponent did them in. I still think Minnesota is pretty solidly in the NCAA Tournament, but they could realistically drop to the bubble, so this is a tough missed opportunity. They'll need to try to salvage something from this trip to Maui.

Kentucky Struggles With Cleveland State Kentucky's offense was a mess in this game. They simply could not hit a shot to save their collective lives, finishing with a 38.7 eFG% only after a furious finish (it was below 30% most of the night) in their 7 point win. And while I don't think the reffing was the reason they won this game, there's no question that every close call went Kentucky's way late. So all in all, this was a very discouraging game for Kentucky. But in a few weeks it'll be forgotten. Kentucky is going to have some close games this season, and some of those close games will end up as losses. That's true for every team. The Wildcats will be glad that this clunker still ended up a victory.

Game You Didn't See But Should Know About: Maryland 56, Providence 52 This was not the prettiest game of the night. Providence had a 29.7 eFG%, but still had multiple chances in the final minute to tie up the game. Regardless, this was an important game for both teams. Both teams are likely to end up on the bubble in February, and Bubble Battles always matter, even in November. Maryland, in particular, needed a win after a bad loss to Oregon State. A loss would have dropped them to 3-3 on the season with a road game at Ohio State looming. They're still going to need to take care of the rest of their non-conference slate (not including that OSU game) to be in a good position for an at-large bid entering ACC play.

Providence is now 6-1, but without any wins over likely RPI Top 50 opponents. They'll get a shot at Kentucky at Barclay's Center next week, but unless they pull that upset their last chance for a quality win prior to Big East play will be December 28th when they go on the road to UMass.

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