The final moments of Charlotte's stunning upset of Michigan
Result Of The Night: Charlotte 63, #14 Michigan 61 There's no question about this being the result of the night. Charlotte came into this game 4-1 with a win over Kansas State and a loss to College of Charleston - not exactly the greatest resume. And I think this result tells us more about Michigan than Charlotte, namely that Michigan lacks secondary scoring options. Nik Stauskas played well, and continues to be tremendous for the Wolverines, but he got absolutely no help from the rest of the roster.
Mitch McGary is proving that as good as he is, he's not as good as he looked in last year's NCAA Tournament, and he was overhyped preseason. He's a big body who can be tough on the glass, but he's not much of a scorer. Because the Wolverines lack an inside scorer, they are very much a jump shooting team. 41.4% of their field goal attempts are beyond the arc (35th most in the country) and they are well below the national average in both 2P% and FT rate. When those shots go in, they'll look good. But they hit only 28% behind the arc in the loss to Iowa State and only 22% here. Inconsistent offense is going to be a big part of Michigan's season.
As for Charlotte, this strong week puts them firmly among the favorites in Conference USA, but I don't think they should be considered a real at-large big contender at this point. They need more than an upset or two to be taken seriously as a realistic Top 50 team.
North Carolina Knocks Off Louisville This win for North Carolina was, in a lot of ways, a coming out game for Marcus Paige and Kennedy Meeks. Paige has been playing significantly better than last season, though he hadn't yet done it on a stage this large. Paige has had to take on more of a scoring load with PJ Hairston out, but has somehow drastically increased his scoring efficiency as well. Last season he took 16.3% of his team's shots while on the floor, with a 44.0 eFG%. This season? He's taken 25.1% of his team's shots while on the floor, with a 66.4 eFG%. Kennedy Meeks, meanwhile, is just a fun player to watch. He's a big boy, but he's smooth with the ball, and he finished with 13 points, 12 rebounds and 7 assists to go with Paige's career-high 32.
As good as Marcus Paige was, though, he was outplayed by the superb and continually underrated Russ Smith (a career-high 36 points). The difference in this game was not Paige, but interior play and transition offense/defense. Louisville's front line was all in foul trouble, and they were significantly outplayed, and Louisville's transition defense was horrible. It felt like North Carolina had at least a dozen easy transition dunks and layups in the second half alone.
This win makes an argument that North Carolina could be a pretty good team if they ever get PJ Hairston back. Even without him, they're looking like a borderline Top 25 team, which is a lot better than they were looking against Belmont and Richmond. But I don't think we should overreact to this game too much. This was Louisville's first game all season against an opponent with a pulse after winning a national title last season, and it looked like it. They were lazy and sloppy, with the transition defense being a glaring example. It's hard to fathom a Rick Pitino team being this bad defensively two games in a row. Louisville will severely miss Gorgui Dieng, but they still have a bunch of good individual defensive players. There's no way their defense is really this bad.
Georgetown Bounces Back This Georgetown/VCU game was just ugly all around. The two teams combined for 43 turnovers, 61 fouls, 84 free throw attempts and only 43 made shots from the field. In the end, it shows up as a nice win on Georgetown's resume, and another very frustrating offensive night for VCU. VCU's defense has been strong this season, but their shooting has totally escaped them in their two losses. They had a 32.7 eFG% in the loss to Florida State, and a 41.1 eFG% here.
The thing is that this team has quality shooters, they're just not getting shots for the right people. For example, Treveon Graham (23% behind the arc) has taken more threes than Rob Brandneberg (44%). The Rams have a tough road game at Belmont coming up next weekend, but otherwise will not have any chance for a big scalp prior to Atlantic Ten play. They're going to have to earn their at-large bid against conference opponents.
Harvard's Resume Takes A Big Blow There's been a lot of Harvard hype in the media this year, but even if the roster isn't quite as good as some in the media make it out to be (and I do think they're being overrated by Seth Davis and others), the problem that really concerns me is their schedule. It's just terribly weak. Other than the Alaska Shoot-Out, the only likely RPI Top 100 teams they play are Colorado, Boston College and UConn. They just can't afford to blow a chance for a quality win, but they blew a chance here. After leading by 12 at halftime, they lost by 8. Considering the fact that the only way they fail to win an automatic bid to the Tournament will be if they lose at least two Ivy League games, Harvard's at-large margin of error is getting awfully small.
Meanwhile, this is a nice win for Colorado after the season-opening loss for Baylor. They're likely to be a bubble team in February, and every quality win helps. With games coming up against Kansas and Oklahoma State, they have a great chance to steal a big scalp prior to opening up Pac-12 play.
Duke's Defense Struggles Again In Vermont Scare Duke held on for the one point win over Vermont, but it's a worrying performance. They scored a lot, and they're going to score a lot every game. They have some great offensive weapons. But their defense, particularly their interior defense, is not good. And they have been torched repeatedly by quality and semi-quality opponents. They allowed 1.09 PPP to Davidson, 1.26 PPP to Kansas and 1.39 PPP here. Vermont's 68.5 eFG% is the single worst shooting defense performance by Duke since an 89-77 loss to Geogetown on January 30th, 2010. Coach K is going to have to think seriously about switching up his rotation to get some more defense-oriented big men in the regular rotation, even if it means fewer minutes for scorers like Rodney Hood and Amile Jefferson.
Florida Gets Back Scottie Wilbekin Florida has suffered with injuries and suspensions this season, never getting anything particularly close to a full roster. They got a little bit closer, however, as Scottie Wilbekin was reinstated from suspension. It comes just in time, as Kasey Hill (who had been filling in at point guard) suffered an ankle injury and will be out for around a month. In fact, I'm sure there are some Florida State fans and others who think that this reinstatement is a bit too convenient, though I'll leave that issue aside for this post. For now, let's see if Wilbekin can avoid any more suspensions and be the point guard he was last season.
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