Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Morning News: Wisconsin Beats St Louis & Arkansas Crushes Minnesota. Also, Syracuse, Baylor, Pitt & Wichita St Win.

Traevon Jackson demonstrating the Wisconsin defense that had been lacking a lot to begin this season prior to last night.

Best Game: #10 Wisconsin 63, Saint Louis 57 St. Louis came into this game safely in the Top 25 in both Sagarin and Pomeroy, and both of these teams are always well-coached and tough, so this game was always going to be a good one, even on that weird Cancun court. And this game was a bit chippy, and a big ugly at times, but in the end Wisconsin had a deserved win. And this was yet another quality win for the Badgers, who have also beaten Florida, St. John's and Green Bay so far in November.

What made this win particularly nice for Wisconsin is that it came despite some uncharacteristically poor shooting (57% at the free throw line and only 4 made 3-pointers). The Badgers have a lot of good shooters, but they proved here that they can beat a quality opponent even if their shots aren't all falling. As for St. Louis, I liked their resilience and toughness to come back after trailing by 15 midway through the second half to make this one a game. There's no question that they are an NCAA Tournament team with a good chance to win a game or two once they get there.

Arkansas Crushes Minnesota Early in the season, it can be hard to tell which results are meaningful are which aren't. Each result can make you re-think the earlier results. And this 87-73 victory by Arkansas over Minnesota is one of those games. The Gophers fell relatively easily, struggling again with rebounding and defense (1.19 PPP allowed). It's the type of result that makes you wonder whether Minnesota is an NCAA Tournament team, and whether Syracuse's win was as impressive as it looked a day earlier. At this point, it's hard to know either way. But Minnesota is going to leave Maui without getting anything from the tournament, and they'll be really motivated to beat Florida State next week. A loss there would leave them without a quality victory prior to Big Ten play, and with an uphill battle just to go Dancing

Meanwhile, this is a nice early season scalp for Arkansas. The fact that they are so reliant on forcing turnovers means that they're likely to be inconsistent this season, but this is the type of performance that makes you think they might just get themselves on the bubble as well.

Syracuse Defeats Undermanned California The Cal Bears got a tough blow just prior to tip when they found out that Richard Solomon would miss the game after getting hit in the eye the day before. Considering how dependent the Syracuse offense is on offensive rebounds and scoring in the paint, Solomon was going to be crucial for Cal. Throw in foul trouble for Cal's entire front court, and they were undermanned all game long. 7-foot freshman Kameron Rooks, who is a gangly mess of arms and legs, had to play for long stretches of the game simply because Cal didn't have any other bigs.

Because Cal was so shorthanded, it's a little hard to tell what to make of this game. Syracuse is obviously overrated at #8 in the polls, but they might still be a pretty good team that can challenge for an ACC title. Is California an NCAA Tournament team? I lean toward "yes", but they have more to prove for me to feel confident about that answer. We'll learn a lot more about both of these teams later today.

Baylor Escapes Dayton Baylor took a 1-0 lead on the opening possession of this game. Their next lead came at 67-66, which also happened to be the final score. It was Cory Jefferson who had the offensive put back to put Baylor ahead to stay. It looked like Dayton might win at the buzzer, but a Devin Oliver tip-in attempt rolled around the rim and out. A heartbreaking loss for a Dayton team looking for a signature win for their at-large resume. And despite looking very flawed in both games in Maui, Baylor has earned a spot in the title game. It should be a great game against Syracuse.

Pittsburgh Takes Stanford To The Woodshed Pitt took a 17 point lead in the first half and absolutely cruised to a 21 point victory over Stanford. Pitt came into this game without a win over a quality opponent, but they had looked really good, absolutely destroying every team they had played. They have owned the paint all season, and Lamar Patterson seemed to spend his entire night getting in there at will (24 points, including 11 free throw attempts).

I plan on breaking down the ACC race at some point soon, but the question has to be asked seriously if Pittsburgh is the best team. That seems like a dumb thing to say, but it really isn't. You can make a pretty good case that they're the most complete team in the ACC, and the team playing the best basketball right now.

BYU's Shot Escapes Them Vs Wichita State BYU shot the ball well early on, hitting 7 of their first 13 shots (including 3-for-4 behind the arc) to take a 19-6 lead. But after that they laid nothing but bricks the rest of the night. They hit only 2 of their final 16 attempts behind the arc and finished with a 35.3 eFG% en route to a 75-62 loss to Wichita State. This is the concern for BYU. Without a good defense, they are reliant on hot shooting from outside. They often get it, but if they don't then they're going to struggle. And when you need a certain number of quality wins to earn an at-large bid, you just cannot afford to throw away a win against a quality opponent like Wichita State.

Wichita State is a difficult team to figure out. After a miracle run to the Final Four last season, it seemed inevitable that they were going to be significantly overranked to start this season. But how overranked? It was impossible to know as they hadn't really played anybody. But with some impressive blowouts of not-terrible teams (Tulsa, DePaul, etc) and this win, it's looking like maybe they're not really so overrated at all. The biggest reason for their improvement is the massive jump by Ron Baker, who is perhaps the most improved player in the entire country so far. He actually had a bad day shooting here (2-for-11 behind the arc), but he still led all scorers with 23 points because he's not just a shooter. He was able to attack the lane and ended up 11-for-11 at the free throw line. They have a fascinating game lined up on Sunday at St. Louis.

Rutgers. Sigh. Rutgers obviously isn't any good this season, and they're only going to get mentions in Morning News posts if they pull a big upset or if they have a truly awful performance. And last night they suffered the latter, falling to a Fairleigh Dickinson team that came in ranked 349th in Pomeroy (out of 351). Fairleigh Dickinson came into this game 0-5 against Division I opponents. Their only opponent ranked in the Pomeroy Top 200 (Arizona) beat them by a cool 50 points. So, yeah... Rutgers. Sigh.

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