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| Welcome to the 1 seed line, Aaron Gordon |
New Bracket Projection It's Sunday morning, so there is a new bracket projection. The biggest change is St. Mary's moving into the Field of 68, replacing Stanford. The Aaron Bright injury is the primary reason Stanford dropped out. The four 1 seeds changed for the first time this season, with Arizona moving up a line and Duke dropping down.
Arizona Impresses In Comeback Victory On the road at Michigan, in a game where they were two point underdogs, Arizona looked to finally be on their way to their first loss of the season. They trailed basically the entire game. But in the final few minutes, they absolutely dominated the glass, and also went unconscious from the free throw line. In the final 2:30, Arizona hit 8-for-9 at the free throw line. And this undersized Michigan team ended up allowing Arizona a 48.6 OR%. In Michigan's defense, Arizona just might be the best rebounding team in the country.
Is Arizona the best team in the country? Maybe, though probably not. If they had started the season ranked behind Ohio State, Syracuse or Wisconsin, or if they had blown one of several close games (including a home game against UNLV where they led by only two points with 30 seconds left) then they wouldn't be ranked #1. Pomeroy has them 4th and the Sagarin PREDICTOR has them 2nd. They do probably have the best resume in college basketball thus far. And with this non-conference resume, a sweep of the Pac-12 titles will earn them a 1 seed in March. It's been a fantastic start to the season for the Wildcats, and whether they're the best or fourth best team in the country really doesn't matter right now, to be honest.
This is a huge missed opportunity for Michigan. There's not a significant risk that they're going to fall onto the Tournament bubble, but this was the type of win that could move them up a seed line or two in March. Lately, I've argued that the Big Ten is a four team race, with Michigan the odd-team out in 5th place. This was the type of win that could have gotten them back in that discussion. But there are still too many questions about their defense, about their reliance on Spike Albrecht as a playmaker at key points in games, and about front court offense
North Carolina Wins Ugly Over Kentucky Both of these teams got Jay Bilas's pretty badly. The game finished with 56 fouls and 88 free throw attempts. The quick whistle went both ways, and for a while Kentucky was able to get an assembly line going to the free throw line by having their athletic perimeter talent put their heads down and attack the rime. But after they got into the bonus before the first tv timeout of the 2nd half, the UNC crowd went apoplectic, and the refs were cowed for pretty much the rest of the game. Kentucky just does not have players that can create (or make) open shots, and if they're not getting to the basket and to the line, their offense stagnates.
North Carolina remains a question mark because they wait on PJ Hairston. Despite three great wins, they're still a step below the type of team that can earn a 1 or 2 seed and win the ACC. With Hairston, they're not. At full strength North Carolina might be the best team in the ACC. But without any timeline on Hairston's suspension, it's very difficult to project a seed for them.
Kentucky has to avoid a let-down-look-ahead loss to Belmont next weekend, but their upcoming game with Louisville will be a fascinating contrast of styles. Louisville has the far superior backcourt, and could potentially eat the Harrison twins alive. But Kentucky will have a massive size advantage and might play volleyball off the backboards all game. That'll be a game you won't want to miss.
VCU Falls Again It's not that this is a really bad loss for VCU. It's not that they have any really bad losses, honestly. It's that they're not beating enough good teams. The big change is their offense, which has dropped from 21st to 74th in the Pomeroy ratings. But what makes it hard to diagnose by watching them is that nothing has significantly changed. VCU is turning the ball over a little bit more, they're shooting a little bit worse, they're a little worse at the free throw line... it just all adds up. The biggest missing piece is clearly Darius Theus. Briante Weber just has been a significantly less efficient point guard than Theus was.
VCU is still a good enough team to earn an at-large bid, but they're going to enter A-10 play with an NIT-type resume. They have to start beating good teams.
Saint Mary's Shooting Carries Them To A Key Win Over Boise State Both Saint Mary's and Boise State are significantly better offensively than defensively, so this was always going to be a high scoring game. The difference was St. Mary's shooters going off behind the arc, finishing 12-for-23. Jeff Elorriaga did his best to fight back for Boise State (6-for-9 behind the arc), but his teammates finished a combined 0-for-5.
This was a huge win not just for St. Mary's but for the entire WCC. The conference has lacked the large number of quality non-conference victories that they've had in the past. Beating each other doesn't lead to quality wins unless somebody does something out-of-conference. This win goes a long way toward making the WCC a two-bid (or even three-bid) league. Boise State, meanwhile, will finish non-conference play without a win over a likely RPI Top 50 opponent. They are a bubble quality team, but they're going to have to play really well in Mountain West play just to work their way into the Field of 68.
Notre Dame Grabs A Needed Win Over Indiana The Hoosiers have tended to struggle this season mostly when their jump shots weren't falling and when they were dominated in the paint. But interestingly enough, they actually outrebounded the Irish and shot slightly better behind the arc. Instead they were outplayed by Notre Dame's guards, who were vastly more effective at getting into the lane for easy baskets and to the line. Notre Dame finished with a 30-to-16 free throw advantage. Jerian Grant took 11 himself on the way to a 23 point, 9 assist performance.
Coming off the loss to North Dakota State, this was a win that Notre Dame absolutely had to have. Even if they lose to Ohio State, they will now have a win over a likely RPI Top 50 team in non-conference play. A 9-9 ACC record or better should put them in decent shape for an at-large bid.
Meanwhile, Indiana is probably closer to being a bubble team than most of their fans realize. They will get Michigan State and Wisconsin at home in the first two weeks of conference play, so the Hoosiers absolutely need to capitalize early or risk showing up in bubble watches when February rolls around.
Kansas Takes Care Of Business Vs New Mexico This result isn't big news, really. Kansas was supposed to win at home, and they did. But this result underscored two issues. First, I stand by my point that the panic about Kansas is overstated. They will be one of the three or four best teams in the country by March. They have so much talent (here it was Naadir Thorpe stepping up as a playmaker, with 8 points and 9 assists). Second, the Mountain West is down this year. New Mexico is probably still the best team, but they're not looking at the type of 2 or 3 seed that the Mountain West champ has been getting in recent seasons. Don't be surprised to see zero Mountain West teams with a 5 seed or better in March.
Xavier Crushes Cincinnati This game was never competitive. Xavier grabbed a 21 point first half lead, and the closest Cincinnati ever got in the second half was 12. And Xavier actually did this despite committing 10 more turnovers. They just couldn't miss a shot. Their 70.5 eFG% was their best shooting day since a 81.1 eFG% in a 117-75 win over Fairleigh Dickinson last season. Xavier still has Alabama and Wake Forest before entering Big East play, and with wins in those two games they will start to get at-large buzz. They're closer to the bubble than you think.
This is a brutal loss for Cincinnati. They are 7-2, but their best win came over a mediocre NC State team. They'll get a chance to upset Pittsburgh on Tuesday, but without that their non-conference slate is going to turn into a total loss.
Butler Escapes Purdue This was a game that got lost in the shuffle, but it was another tough loss on a bad day for Big Ten hoops, and it also represented a crucial win for Butler to salvage their non-conference slate. Either this or the win over Princeton is their best so far this season. They have a tough road game next weekend at Evansville (Butler will be only a small favorite in Vegas), but if they can get past it then a 10-8 Big East record will get them to 20 wins, and a decent shot at an at-large bid. Purdue doesn't look anything like an at-large team, though they have potential to get better. This roster is better than they've played so far. It's bizarre to see a Matt Painter team under-perform this much.
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