W-12 BP68

Interestingly enough, the biggest news this week for the bracket probably happened off the court. The news that PJ Hairston is officially done for the season probably puts a stake through the heart of North Carolina's ACC title hopes. It also provides a boost to Duke, Syracuse, and the other top ACC teams. Had North Carolina fallen to Davidson, we might have started to talk about North Carolina as an at-large team, though I doubt we'll ever really get there. But if UNC continues to mix big wins with bad losses, it will be interesting to see if the Selection Committee gives the benefit of the doubt to them that they didn't give to Virginia last season.

The most controversial team in my bracket the past couple of weeks has been Kansas at #1 overall, which doesn't mean I necessarily think they'll be the #1 overall seed but that they're the safest 1 seed. That should probably be less controversial after the way they've played over the last week. It's become very clear that they're already one of the six or seven best teams in the country, and they're just going to get better. And I don't think that they have the competition in their league that the top Big Ten teams have.

The most difficult of the major conferences to pick is the Big East. At this point, there simply isn't an obvious elite team to project as a 2 or 3 seed. I think Georgetown, Villanova, Creighton and Marquette are all reasonable selections here. The best team so far has probably been Villanova. But the best team in March? I still think it will be Georgetown. But if you ask me how much confidence I have in that projection? Not much.

Interestingly, not a single at-large team is changing from the bracket this week. Teams like Clemson and Notre Dame slid right down to the bottom of the at-large section of the bracket, but at this point I think they have a better chance of turning things around than a team like SMU or Oklahoma has of putting together an at-large equality resume.

The one change to the Field of 68 comes from the automatic bids, where Stony Brook replaces Vermont as the America East favorite.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. Florida

3. Oklahoma State
3. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
4. Villanova
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Syracuse

5. UConn
5. Creighton
5. North Carolina
5. Iowa State

6. Pittsburgh
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Michigan
6. St. Louis

7. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
7. Memphis
7. Marquette
7. Oregon

8. UMass
8. Baylor
8. Colorado
8. Florida State

9. Virginia
9. UCLA
9. San Diego State
9. Indiana

10. Cincinnati
10. Boise State
10. LSU
10. Minnesota

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Tennessee
11. Saint Mary's
11. Missouri

12. Dayton
12. Butler
12. Clemson
12. Notre Dame
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)

14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. BRYANT (NEC)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Maryland, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah State, Arizona State, California, Stanford, Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, Wake Forest, George Washington, Richmond, Purdue, Kansas State, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Indiana State, UNLV, Utah, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Central Florida, South Florida, Temple, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, DePaul, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Akron, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Texas A&M