Morning News: Northwestern Stuns Wisconsin, Kansas Handles Iowa St, Bonnes Take Out UMass, Penn St Beats Ohio St, And Much More

DJ Newbill crossed up Aaron Craft before nailing the game winning jumper right over him.

Northwestern Stuns Wisconsin This whole game felt like a glitch in the Matrix. Northwestern shooters who've been brutally bad all year got hot (for example, Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb were both shooting 31% or worse behind the arc but were 5-for-9 here). At the same time, Wisconsin's strong outside shooters went ice cold. Wisconsin's 30.7 eFG% was their worst shooting day since January 21st, 2006 - more than eight years.

Here's a weird stat I found while researching that last paragraph: In the last 10 seasons, Wisconsin is 0-6 in games where their eFG% has been under 33%. That doesn't seem odd, except that four of those six games were in the Big Ten or NCAA Tournament (the '05 Big Ten title game vs Illinois, the famous 39-33 Big Ten tourney game vs Penn State, and their NCAA Tourney exits vs Xavier in '09 and Ole Miss in '13). The other two were this game and their infamous 2006 loss to North Dakota State. Wisconsin fans will hope that they used up their shooting abortion game in a relatively meaningless midseason contest this season, instead of in a tournament game.

Anyway, I'm not going to join the panic over Wisconsin. They're still easily fourth in the Big Ten in scoring differential (+0.09 PPP, compared to +0.13 PPP for 7-0 Michigan), and are still ranked 20th in Pomeroy and 17th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. They've probably run themselves out of contention for a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but they're still an awfully good team that will be dangerous in March.

With the defense that Northwestern plays, they're never going to be a pushover. But the question is, what about their offense? They were white hot here, but otherwise have been a horrible offensive team. Even after this huge performance they're still dead last by a wide margin in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play (0.84 PPP). They were only shooting 23% on three-pointers in Big Ten play prior to this game, for example. If they shoot like this they can beat almost anybody. But it would be a mistake to extrapolate from a single game. Northwestern has to do this a few more times to prove that this wasn't a fluke.

Kansas Handles Iowa State This game wasn't a blowout by any means. Iowa State hung tough and kept this game close most of the night. But other than 0-0, this game was never tied and Iowa State never led. Kansas grabbed the early lead and were never out of control. Andrew Wiggins was superb again (29 points on 10-for-16 shooting) and they also got another big game from Naadir Tharpe (12 points and 12 assists). The Jayhawks have a stranglehold on the Big 12 title yet again, and if they can win the Big 12 tournament they should earn a 1 seed.

Iowa State certainly played well this game. They got 20+ from both DeAndre Kane and Georges Niang, and hung tough on the road against a Kansas team playing at an awfully high level right now. Iowa State is only 3-4 in Big 12 play, but the worst of their conference schedule is over. They should still be on their way to something like an 11-7 Big 12 record, and there's no reason to start talking about the Cyclones like a potential bubble team. They're not. The home game against Oklahoma on Saturday is an important one, but expect Iowa State to be favored by more than you'd think - something like 8 points.

Bonnies Take Out UMass UMass has arguably the most explosive point guard in the nation in Chaz Williams, but they can be sloppy and they can be inconsistent. Their three biggest warts all showed up in this game: free throws (53% here), turnovers (17) and defensive rebounding (the Bonnies had a 48.8 OR%). And this St. Bonaventure team is no slouch - after this win they have slid up to 59th in the Pomeroy ratings.

UMass had been due for a bit of a reality check. When they were 16-1 they were also 7-1 in games decided by six points or less, so they weren't as good as their resume said they were (they were actually #1 in RPI for a while). But they had the three point loss to Richmond, and now the biggest loss here. At this point, UMass is still 17-3 overall and still well clear of the bubble, but don't be shocked if they do fall back to the bubble before the end of the season. They're not as far from the bubble as you'd think, particularly with five difficult road games remaining in their regular season.

Despite the strong computer numbers, St. Bonaventure is still a very long way from the bubble. They're only 13-8 overall and 3-4 in conference play, with this win along with bad losses to Siena, Buffalo and Duquesne. They're going to have to get to at least 10-6 in conference play to have a plausible bubble case, and that will require at last 7 wins in their final 9 games. It's an uphill battle, even after this big win.

Penn State Beats Ohio State In Columbus This one won't go in the "Aaron Craft wills his team to victories" highlight reel. It was his turnover late in regulation that was incomprehensibly wiped off the books by video review. And in overtime, he got torched on DJ Newbill's game-winner, and then lost track of time and never got a shot off before the clock ran out. But really, this game was close because Ohio State couldn't hit a jump shot (2-for-14 on two-point jumpers) and because this Penn State team is playing good basketball right now.

Ohio State is an even more extreme version of Wisconsin in the way that they're being viewed as a disaster because of some close losses in the nation's best conference. Ohio State's offense is definitely mediocre, but their defense is great, and they've been unlucky in close games (they're already lost two overtime games in Big Ten play). After this game, Ohio State is 12th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 44th in the Sagarin PURE_ELO. That's one of the more staggering differentials I've ever seen - the 12th best team with the 44th best resume. The other numbers aren't quite as extreme (Pomeroy rates them 21st and they're 33rd in RPI), but there's still no question that this Ohio State team is significantly better than their resume.

So their resume has gotten a bit bubbly, but it's unlikely that they'll actually be on the bubble in late February. This Ohio State team is too good for that. That said, they've got a brutal week coming up, with road games at Wisconsin and Iowa. Only after that does their schedule finally ease up.

Valparaiso Crushes Green Bay It's not particularly surprising that Valparaiso beat a Green Bay team missing star 7-footer Alec Brown. But it was pretty surprising to see this turn into a blowout. Perhaps they were motivated by head coach Bryce Drew getting his jersey retired. More realistically, the fact that the Horizon League's leader in blocks per game was out of the game meant that Valpo was able to attack the paint with impunity. Of the 36 two-pointers that they attempted, only 7 went down as "jumpers". It's no surprise that they shot 63.9% on two-pointers.

Green Bay had been putting together a bit of a dark horse at-large resume. This loss deals that a pretty severe blow, however. They are now 17-4 overall with a win over Virginia to go with this loss and a loss to Eastern Michigan. They're 58th in RPI with a Sagarin PURE_ELO that is 51st. Realistically, they can probably afford no more than one loss the rest of the regular season to have a shot for an at-large bid.

Valparaiso moves into a three-way tie for second place in the Horizon League with this win. Considering the fact that the top two teams get a double-bye in the Horizon League tournament, the Crusaders will be highly motivated to earn that #2 seed.

NC State Upsets Florida State In all the craziness of last night, this game got lost in the shuffle. But this Florida State team is looking more and more like a bubble team, and this could end up being a crucial loss. And really, they had their chances. Florida State failed to hit a single shot from the field in the final 6:20 in a game that they lost by only two points. Okaro White (20 points) was shouldering much of the scoring load, but he's never going to be a huge volume scorer. TJ Warren led NC State with 30 points.

Florida State is now 4-4 in ACC play with wins over VCU and UMass to go with this bad loss to NC State. They're now only 5-7 against the RPI Top 100 and their RPI has slid to 36th, and their Sagarin PURE_ELO has fallen all the way to 40th. If the season ended now they'd likely be a Tournament team, but to stay in they'll need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play. They have a key "taking care of business" game on Saturday at home against Clemson.

NC State isn't a bubble team yet, but if they can knock off North Carolina on Saturday then they'll have to at least be in the discussion. They're also 4-4 in ACC play.

Arizona State Escapes California In Overtime This game is your weekly reminder that overtime games are random coin flips. Arizona State blew a 15 point second half lead, allowing California to go on a huge charge late in the game to send this one into overtime. Yet in overtime, California scored only two points on their first eight possessions, and ended up being outscored 17-6. Arizona State was again driven offensively by Jahii Carson (29 points and 7 assists). The Arizona State offense looks completely different when he's not on the floor.

This was a bubble battle between two bubble teams. Both teams are 5-3 in Pac-12 play and both have several wins over borderline RPI Top 50 teams, but none over really elite teams. The difference in the resumes at this point is that California has worse bad losses (USC, UC Santa Barbara) than Arizona State (Washington and Miami-Florida), and so Arizona State's resume is a bit better. But even after this game, Arizona State and California are right on the bubble. In my opinion, both of these teams will be in decent shape for an at-large bid if they can get to 11-7. If they go 10-8 then they'll need to win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament. If either of these teams go 9-9 they'll almost certainly be NIT-bound. California has a huge opportunity at home on Saturday against Arizona.