W-10 BP68

It's nice to see the carnage of conference play in the major conferences really get going this week. Despite the media and the Selection Committee obsessing over RPI Top 50 record, the reality is that a road game at team #60 is a lot more difficult than a home game against team #45, and so the conferences with a lot of depth near the bottom of the league are going to be the really brutal ones to get through.

Realistically, you can only argue for the Big Ten or Big 12 as the best conference in the land (I give the narrow edge to the Big Ten). Both leagues are very deep, and are going to be really tough to get through. Both leagues could see a 14-4 regular season champion. This is as opposed to a conference like the SEC where there are a few bad teams that are going to be pushovers for the likes of Kentucky and Florida.

The top of the bracket didn't change too much this week. The biggest move is Wisconsin moving up to a 2 seed. It's not that I didn't think they were one of the eight best teams in the country, it's that I have them third in the Big Ten pecking order and it's hard for a conference (even the best conference in the land) to get three teams earning 2 seeds or better. But they're playing well enough that I felt comfortable sliding them up one line.

At the bottom of the bracket, there continues to be a wheel of fortune for the final two or three at-large spots. Last week I moved Illinois and Arizona State in, while saying that at least a half dozen other teams would have had a good argument as well. Illinois consolidated their position with wins over Indiana and Penn State, while Arizona State suffered a bad loss to Washington.

So this week, Arizona State drops out, being replaced by Xavier. And for the record, California is the "first team out" - if I had one more spot they'd be the team I move in. At this point, let's not pretend like "last in" or "first out" of a bracket projection means a whole lot. Among the auto bids, Charleston Southern moves into the bracket as the new projected Big South champion, replacing High Point.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. Wisconsin

3. Florida
3. Oklahoma State
3. Iowa
3. Syracuse

4. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
4. Villanova
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Iowa State

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Creighton
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. North Carolina

6. Pittsburgh
6. Oregon
6. St. Louis
6. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

7. Memphis
7. UConn
7. UMass
7. Michigan

8. Baylor
8. Colorado
8. Virginia
8. San Diego State

9. Cincinnati
9. UCLA
9. Marquette
9. Florida State

10. Indiana
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Missouri
10. Tennessee

11. Dayton
11. Boise State
11. Butler
11. Minnesota

12. LSU
12. Clemson
12. Illinois
12. Xavier
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)
13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)

14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. BRYANT (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
SMU, Maryland, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Southern Miss, Arizona State, California, Stanford, Arkansas, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, George Washington, Richmond, Providence, St. John's, Purdue, West Virginia, Indiana State, UNLV, Utah State, Utah, Alabama, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Central Florida, Temple, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State