Sunday, January 26, 2014

W-7 BP68

I think if we're being honest with ourselves, that wasn't the most exciting Saturday of basketball we've ever had. I'll never complain about a full Saturday of college basketball, but we've definitely had better.

Probably the most interesting part of the bracket to talk about are the bubble teams. Please remember here that this is a projection, and not a measure of where teams are now. A classic example here is Providence. If the season ended now, there's a greater than 50% chance that they'd get into the Tournament. But the season doesn't end now, and it seems pretty unlikely to me that they're going to keep up this really high level of play for another two months when they're only playing six guys. So for now, they're out of the Field of 68.

Another thing to keep in mind is that I'd put the odds of making the Tournament at below 50% for all of the 12 seeds. If you ask me now do I think Indiana is getting in? Baylor? "Probably not" is my answer. But I like their odds slightly better than teams like Providence and Stanford, so here we are. Every team on the bubble has serious flaws. If they didn't, they wouldn't be on the bubble.

There are always some parts of a bracket that are more compressed than others, and this year it feels like there are a whole lot of teams in competition for 3-6 seeds. It's just very hard to separate out a lot of those teams. At the same time, somewhere around the 9/10 seeds is where the bracket falls off. I'm pretty confident that every team with a 9 seed or better will go Dancing, but those 10, 11 and 12 seeds are all basically bubble teams.

In the end, three changes to the Field of 68 were made this week. George Washington moves in as an at-large, replacing Colorado (sorry, Colorado fans, that Spencer Dinwiddie injury sucks). Delaware moves in as the new Colonial favorite (replacing Drexel). And American University moves in as the new Patriot favorite (replacing Boston University).

Also, we eliminated six teams from at-large contention: Cleveland State, Drake, George Mason, Old Dominion, Pepperdine and William & Mary. That leaves 77 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Kentucky

3. Iowa
3. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
3. Oklahoma State
3. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

4. Creighton
4. Michigan
4. Iowa State
4. Wisconsin

5. Ohio State
5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Pittsburgh

6. St. Louis
6. Virginia
6. Cincinnati
6. GONZAGA (WCC)

7. UMass
7. Memphis
7. Florida State
7. UCLA

8. UConn
8. Minnesota
8. Clemson
8. Xavier

9. North Carolina
9. Tennessee
9. Kansas State
9. SMU

10. Texas
10. California
10. Oklahoma
10. New Mexico

11. Arizona State
11. Oregon
11. George Washington
11. HARVARD (IVY)

12. Georgetown
12. Missouri
12. Baylor
12. Indiana
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NORTHERN COLORADO (BIG SKY)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Providence, Southern Miss, Indiana State, Boise State, Colorado, Stanford, Arkansas, LSU, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Dayton, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, West Virginia, Utah State, Utah, Ole Miss, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Miami (Fl), NC State, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, Butler, St. John's, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Purdue, Texas Tech, UTEP, Princeton, Ohio, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Wyoming, Washington, Alabama, Texas A&M

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, Houston, Rutgers, USF, Temple, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, La Salle, Rhode Island, DePaul, Northwestern, Penn State, TCU, Hawaii, UC Santa Barbara, Towson, UAB, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, Canisius, Akron, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nevada, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, San Francisco

1 comment:

Arizona vs. Kansas said...

This is nitpicking but how can you possibly justify ranking Kansas higher than Arizona on the S-curve?

Barring an injury, Arizona is a virtual lock to be a #1 seed. They're undefeated, are dominating the quant rankings (#1 in Kenpom and Sagarin by sizable margins) and the Pac 12 is weak (the only other top 30 Kenpom team is UCLA and Arizona has already beaten them on the road) so they're unlikely to have more than 2 losses the rest of the way.

Kansas is looking solid too, but they already have 4 losses and the B12 actually has threats to knock them off. They might go into the tournament with 6 or 7 losses, which may not get them a #1 seed.