Sunday, January 19, 2014

W-8 BP68

We are just eight weeks to Selection Sunday, with the bracket starting to firm itself up. The number of teams on the bubble is shrinking as we are all starting to gain clarity about which teams are firmly in or out of the Tournament.

As we've passed January 15th (the arbitrary date I set years ago), the bracket now includes the "full bubble". For those new to my blog this year, that means that I include every team with a mathematical chance for an at-large bid. That means asking the question that if a team wins every game between now and their conference title game, could they get an at-large bid? If so, they get included at the bottom of the page.

With eight weeks still to go, the full bubble includes some bad teams. Basically, every team in a major conference is listed. Technically, if Northwestern or Washington State wins 10 straight games they'll be in the bubble conversation, so they're listed. Once they lose a few more games they'll be eliminated. In all my years doing a full bubble, only one team has come from the initial "need a miracle" group has gone on to earn an at-large bid, so feel free to ignore that category for a few weeks.

Once teams are eliminated, they are eliminated for the rest of the season. So with each bracket, the full bubble will shrink. In this bracket there are 84 teams not in the Field of 68 that are still listed. By Selection Sunday it'll be down to 10 to 12. So stay tuned to each new bracket projection as we cull the field.

As for the Field of 68 itself, three changes were made to this bracket. Arizona State, Oklahoma and Texas move in. Dayton, Illinois and Marquette drop out. If you ask me what I like least about this bracket, it's having Oklahoma and Texas both in. It's hard to see both of them getting in (somebody has to pick up losses in the Big 12), but who else moves in? George Washington? Boise State? No team is obvious. Every team on the bubble has serious flaws… or else they wouldn't be on the bubble.

At the top of the bracket, I had a whole lot of trouble figuring out my fourth 1 seed. In the end, I went with Florida, but don't feel good about it. Syracuse will obviously get a 1 seed if they win the ACC tournament after taking at least a share of the regular season title. A second Big Ten team will have a good shot. Louisville is still in contention for a 1 seed. Even a team like Villanova or Creighton could be in play if they sweep the Big East titles.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Kentucky

3. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
3. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
3. Oklahoma State

4. Ohio State
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Iowa State
4. Creighton

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis
5. GONZAGA (WCC)

6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
6. Virginia
6. UMass
6. Michigan

7. Cincinnati
7. Memphis
7. Florida State
7. North Carolina

8. Georgetown
8. UCLA
8. Oregon
8. UConn

9. Xavier
9. Clemson
9. California
9. HARVARD (IVY)

10. Tennessee
10. Colorado
10. Minnesota
10. New Mexico

11. Baylor
11. Kansas State
11. Oklahoma
11. SMU

12. Texas
12. Arizona State
12. Missouri
12. Indiana
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NORTHERN COLORADO (BIG SKY)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Dayton, George Washington, Marquette, Providence, Illinois, Southern Miss, Boise State, Stanford, Arkansas, LSU, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Richmond, Butler, West Virginia, Indiana State, Utah State, Utah, Ole Miss, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Miami (Fl), NC State, Wake Forest, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, St. John's, Seton Hall, Purdue, Texas Tech, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Princeton, Ohio, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Wyoming, Washington, Alabama, Texas A&M

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, Houston, Rutgers, USF, Temple, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, George Mason, Rhode Island, DePaul, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, TCU, Hawaii, UC Santa Barbara, Towson, William & Mary, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Cleveland St, Canisius, Akron, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Drake, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nevada, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Pepperdine, San Francisco

14 comments:

Leon Lim said...

Which is the one team that came from 'need a miracle' category?

Anonymous said...

Which is the one team that came from 'need a miracle' category?

Jeff said...

2007-08 Kentucky. They started the season 7-9, but then won 11 of their final 13 regular season games to get to 12-4 in SEC play. Managed to sneak in as an 11 seed.

Anonymous said...

What is the reasoning behind leaving GW out? That Creighton win is going to look awfully nice come Selection Sunday. No bad losses yet. Maryland and Miami victories could be bubble eliminators for those teams in a H2H situation. Just curious....as a Mizzou fan, I think that GW is more deserving than my squad right now.

And I am curious why OU is so low. Texas, ISU, and Baylor wins look great.

Jeff said...

The answer for both George Washington and Oklahoma is the same: regression.

If the season ended now, George Washington would almost certainly get in over teams like Indiana and Missouri, while Oklahoma would be closer to an 8 seed. The question is: How much do we believe that they're going to keep up the level of play of the last two weeks? Are they going to keep winning close games?

So my answer in these situation is usually to be cautious and skeptical, and assume a little regression. But if I'm wrong, and these teams keep playing like they have the last two weeks for the rest of the season, there's no question that they'll move up my bracket.

Anonymous said...

So what makes you predict regression in each case? I can buy OU regressing due to that heinous adjusted defense, but I am not so sure that GW will regress (at least, based on efficiency stats).

Jeff said...

George Washington has moved up about 25 spots in the computers in the last two weeks, driven in a big way by hot shooting. I'd just like to see them consolidate on this level of play. Let's see them go on the road next Saturday and win at George Mason. If they do that they might moved into the bracket.

Anonymous said...

What do you project as Syracuse's record heading into the NCAA tourney?

Anonymous said...

I'm sure he doesn't want to talk about Syracuse again this week lol.

If I were to handicap their loss total (including the ACC Tournament) I'd put the over/under at about 4.5. They still have four difficult road games left, and I'd put their chances of winning the ACC Tournament below 50%, although at this point I think they'd be Tournament favorites.

Jeff said...

That's a reasonable guess. 14-4 is probably the most likely regular season record for Syracuse, and then they'll probably be something like 3-to-1 to win the ACC tournament.

Anonymous said...

I simply don't understand VCU at 5. They've done nothing close to warrant that type of seed. They have a nice win at UVA and only one other top 100 RPI win (Belmont). They are 2-4 vs. the Top 100 in the RPI. They managed to avoid "bad losses" thus far, but with that resume, they are no better than a 9 or 10....and that is being generous. I can name at least 10 below them that should be seeded higher based upon up to date current performance.

Anonymous said...

As a follow up to my post above, all of the following teams should be seeded higher based upon their composite of top 25/top 50 RPI wins, SOS, and R/N records:
San Diego St (they are a 3 seed in most brackets)
UMASS
Cincinatti
Memphis
UCLA
Oklahoma
Kansas State
UCLA
Colorado
Cal
Baylor

All of the teams above have better wins, SOS, and/or R/N records.

You can try and make the argument that VCU has the capability to improve their seeding, but the A-10 only has three tournament-worthy teams (UMASS, GW, St. Louis) outside of them, so they had better take advantage when they play them.

Anonymous said...

I just read in your blog (in its entirety) indicating that your bracket is a projection, not a snapshot. Disregard my arguments above.

Although I believe UMASS will win the A-10.

Jeff said...

Yes, as you can see above, I'm projecting VCU to win the Atlantic Ten tournament. Obviously they'll slide down the bracket if they lose earlier in the A-10 tournament.

I certainly wouldn't argue that VCU has one of the 20 best resumes right now.