Sunday, January 12, 2014

W-9 BP68

It's been a busy week for the bracket, with five teams changing in the Field of 68. Honestly, I can't recall the last time that five teams changed in the same bracket, and I'll get to those first. Three at-large teams moved in: Kansas State, California and SMU. They are replacing Butler, Boise State and LSU.

Remember, being one of the last few teams in the Field of 68 is not exactly a strong endorsement. I'd put the odds of any of those 12 seeds getting into the Tournament at below 50%. A couple of auto bids always get stolen during Championship Week, in addition to everything else that can happen. At this point, the line between teams whose at-large chances I'm confident about and those I'm not is somewhere among those 10 seeds.

Among the auto bids, Northern Colorado replaces Weber State as Big Sky favorite after crushing them head-to-head. In the NEC, Robert Morris moves in while Bryant drops out.

I would guess that the most controversial part of this bracket is Duke as the ACC tournament favorite over Syracuse. Syracuse has played better than Duke so far this season, of course. There are two things that stick out to me, though. First, there's still a chance that Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis will regress after their spectacular start to the season. They've slowed down a bit the last week or two, and that Syracuse half court offense will get ugly quickly if they regress. Second, I think Duke matches up well with Syracuse head-to-head, should they meet in the ACC tournament title game. Syracuse is not the type of team that will take advantage of Duke's poor interior defense, and Duke has the outside shooters to score over the top of the Syracuse zone. So for now, I'm leaving Duke as the narrow favorite.

For the people really angry at me about that, please note the perils and advantages of projected polls. I wasn't forced to put Baylor as a 2-4 seed in my last bracket, like everybody else on the Bracket Matrix site did. But at the same, I'm going to miss some of my projections and look dumb. If I was perfect, I'd quit blogging and go make millions in Vegas like Biff from Back to the Future 2.

Another thing I want to cover since it keeps coming up is that me having Kansas at the top there does not mean I'm projecting them as the #1 overall seed. It means I think they're the safest 1 seed. Kansas has the easiest path to sweeping their regular season and tournament title of the other 1 seeds. If Arizona, Michigan State, Ohio State or Wisconsin sweeps their conference's regular season and tournament title, they'll obviously be seeded ahead of Kansas. But if Kansas sweeps the Big 12 titles, they'll be a 1 seed also.

Next week is the first "full bubble" of the season. For readers who are new this season, this means that I include every team with even the slightest mathematical chance of earning an at-large bid, and then I start eliminating them with each new bracket. It means that a lot of mediocre teams will get added to the bottom of this post next week, and we'll start the countdown to Selection Sunday by eliminating them one by one.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There is a difference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. Ohio State
2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Wisconsin

3. Florida
3. Syracuse
3. Oklahoma State
3. Iowa

4. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
4. Iowa State
4. Creighton

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis
5. GONZAGA (WCC)

6. Georgetown
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
6. Memphis
6. North Carolina

7. Oregon
7. New Mexico
7. UMass
7. Virginia

8. Cincinnati
8. UConn
8. Baylor
8. Michigan

9. Colorado
9. Florida State
9. UCLA
9. HARVARD (IVY)

10. Tennessee
10. Xavier
10. Clemson
10. Minnesota

11. Dayton
11. Illinois
11. California
11. Kansas State

12. Marquette
12. Missouri
12. Indiana
12. SMU
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)
13. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
13. TOLEDO (MAC)

14. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)
14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. NORTHERN COLORADO (BIG SKY)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Butler, Oklahoma, Texas, Southern Miss, Boise State, Arizona State, Stanford, Arkansas, LSU, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Notre Dame, George Washington, Richmond, Providence, St. John's, West Virginia, Indiana State, Utah State, Utah, Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), NC State, Wake Forest, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Delaware, UAB, Charlotte, UTEP, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Wyoming, USC, Oregon State, Washington, Vanderbilt

6 comments:

David Mann said...

Missouri fan here. I'm glad to see you have them in your bracket, but at this point I'd have to agree fairly strongly with that. Maybe the team that played WVU and UCLA was tournament caliber- but from watching them play the last two games, I have no confidence that they can even be in the general vicinity of the bubble come selection Sunday. Without drastic improvement, I don't see them exceeding .500 in league play, and that might be a reach.

Jeff said...

Well like I said, I'd put the odds of any of those 12 seeds making the Tournament at below 50%. I don't have a lot of faith in any of them. The problem is... who do you replace them with?

Anonymous said...

Duke may very well win the ACC Tournament. The question is: will it matter?
Assuming Syracuse and Duke both finish the rest of their season 11-4 (which I think would be the best guess at this point), and assuming then that Duke beats Syracuse in the ACC Tournament finals or semifinals, would that be enough to jump Duke over Syracuse on the seed-line?
Syracuse would be 29-5. Duke would be 26-8. Syracuse would have the ACC regular season title, better computer numbers, a better OOC performance resulting most likely in more quality wins, and probably fewer bad losses (Notre Dame will be a bad loss by seasons end). Duke would have the tournament title.
Unless Duke beats Syracuse three times this year, which at this point seems very unlikely, or unless Syracuse completely implodes, I can't see a realistic path for Duke to be higher on the curve, even if they win the ACC tournament.

Jeff said...

The final few weeks of the season are weighted much more than the early part of the season.

In January we all still obsess over non-conference performances, but the reality is that they're pretty irrelevant by March.

And I wouldn't give Syracuse the ACC title yet. There are three other serious contenders

Anonymous said...

The final 10 games carry additional weight, but to classify how much weight would be speculation (and I'd certain project Syracuse and Duke to have similar performances in their last ten). Regardless, nonconference performance is certainly a consideration, and I think Syracuse comes out better in that metric. To claim its irrelevant I hope is extreme hyperbole - nonconference performance is an explicit consideration by the committee.
No ones giving Syracuse the title yet. They are certainly the front runner. And far from getting better as the season has progressed, Duke seems to be regressing.

You've stated a few "facts", but offered no analysis in your response.

You Are Nuts said...

Good post by Anonymous re: Syracuse and Duke, and I agree that Pitt is the more significant threat to Syracuse (rather than Duke).

What do you project as the final records for Syracuse and Duke?