Thursday, February 27, 2014

W-2.5 BP68

It hasn't been a particularly good few days for a lot of bubble teams. A lot of bad losses, and the bubble has extended to the middle of the 10 seeds at this point. I even moved Toledo up to an 11 seed just because I couldn't find another 11 seed. And I'll say what I've been saying for weeks: the odds of any of the teams I have as 12 seeds making the NCAA Tournament is below 50%. None of them are likely to get in... they're just more likely than the teams that I have out.

The bubble isn't necessarily growing, however. Outside the Field of 68, teams are falling off the pace. Squads like Missouri and Nebraska suffered crucial losses in the last couple of days, for example.

In the end, I only made one change to the Field of 68: Oklahoma State moved in while Clemson dropped out. There were two other teams I had a tough time keeping out of the bracket: Minnesota and Florida State.

At the top of the bracket, the biggest change is Arizona moving up to a 1 seed, dropping Michigan State to a 2 seed. Arizona looked pretty rough in the first few games without Brandon Ashley, but they've looked awfully impressive their last two games. Throw in the fact that the Big Ten is beating itself up to the point that nobody has a gaudy record anymore and Arizona seems like a safer 1 seed pick right now.

One thing I've talked about a bit the past couple of weeks is just how little gap there is between the 2, 3 and 4 seeds. Trying to separate these teams out is very tough, and in the end a lot is going to be decided in the conference tournaments. Please don't freak out at me because I have your team as a 4 seed instead of a 3, or whatever. There just isn't a big gap between any of those teams, and you can argue for just about any permutation of those teams.

Three teams were eliminated from at-large contention since the last bracket: Akron, Miami (Fl) and Texas Tech.  That leaves 38 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Syracuse
2. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)

3. CREIGHTON (BIG EAST)
3. Michigan
3. Villanova
3. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)

4. Virginia
4. Wisconsin
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. North Carolina

5. Cincinnati
5. Iowa State
5. Ohio State
5. Iowa

6. Texas
6. Kentucky
6. UCLA
6. New Mexico

7. UMass
7. SMU
7. Oklahoma
7. Arizona State

8. UConn
8. Memphis
8. Pittsburgh
8. VCU

9. Kansas State
9. George Washington
9. Stanford
9. GONZAGA (WCC)

10. Saint Joseph's
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. California
10. Xavier
 
11. Oregon
11. Colorado
11. TOLEDO (MAC)
11. Tennessee

12. Georgetown
12. Baylor
12. BYU
12. St. John's
12. Oklahoma State
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Florida State, Marquette, Providence, Minnesota, Southern Miss

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Nebraska, West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, NC State, Richmond, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, Georgia, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Notre Dame, Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Seton Hall, Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio, Wyoming, Oregon State, Washington, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

7 comments:

Mike said...

There is no doubt I'll be the only one who will ask about this, but why do you, and so many projections, have Vermont as a 16 seed? They're 60th in KenPom, and BU, for instance, is 129, but you have them as a 15 seed. Southern, who last year you said was one of the best 16s, was 165th in KenPom.

I know the America East is terrible, but still. Is that the major factor? I guess the only reason I ask is because I would think they could give the right matchup a bit of a scare this year.

I know it doesnt really matter, but as a BU grad student (and fan!), and lifelong New Englander, I figured I'd ask. Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Where would Towson fall if they were to win the CAA? You have Delaware as the final 13 seed, so I'm guessing Towson would be a 14?

Jeff said...

KenPom isn't relevant to seeding, Mike. The problem that they have is no wins over the RPI Top 100. Boston University, for comparison, has a pair of RPI Top 100 wins and a significantly higher RPI.

You can make an argument for Vermont as a 15 seed, but I don't see an argument for them over any of the teams I have as 14 seeds.

Keep in mind that several of the conference favorites will fall in their conference tournaments. So I can say with pretty high certainty that if Vermont wins their conference tournament that they'll probably move up to the 15 seed line, and if there's enough carnage during Championship Week, there's even a chance that they'll sneak up to a 14 seed. But until a team like Stephen F Austin or Green Bay loses their conference tournament, I can't slide Vermont up.

Jeff said...

Anonymous, I think you're right about the 14 seed for Towson, though it's possible they'd only be a 15 seed.

But the same thing that I said to Mike applies to Towson: some of the top teams will lose during Championship Week, and everybody will slide up. So Towson would probably end up no worse than a 14 seed on Selection Sunday.

Anonymous said...

Arizona is the overall #1 seed not the 4th best #1 seed...

Daniel Tappa said...

Oh Jeff, still not on the Wisconsin train. For Wisconsin to get a 4 seed, that must mean you expect them to lose @ Nebraska, and either @ Penn State or home vs Purdue, AND get bounced in the first round of the conference tournament.

If they win @ Penn State and home vs Purdue, then lose against a red hot Nebraska team, then win 1st round game of Big Ten Tourney, there's a very low chance they will be LOWER than a 3.

Anonymous said...

I noticed you have Pittsburgh as an #8 seed.
Compare there resume with Minnesota who you don't have in.

What do you like about Pittsburgh?