Sunday, February 16, 2014

W-4 BP68

It's hard to think of a season where it's been so hard to pick 1 seeds. A few years back I was able to have the same four teams as my 1 seeds all season long. This year? That's impossible.

Florida seems like the safest 1 seed at this point. They're dominating the SEC, and if they win the SEC tournament they'll be a 1 seed. Wichita State also looks like they'll be a 1 seed if they win out, which at this point is close to 50-50. I do like Michigan State as a 1 seed because if they can ever get healthy they'll be the favorite to win the Big Ten tournament. Kansas probably can't afford to lose more than one more game, but if they run away with the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles, it's going to be incredibly hard to keep them from a 1 seed.

Syracuse remains controversial, but they have just had a staggering amount of luck the past few weeks. Six of their 12 ACC games have been decided by six points or less. At this point, Virginia has to be considered the ACC favorite. And once Syracuse starts losing some of these close games, the #narrative about Syracuse struggling (be it their short bench, or whatever the media fixates on) will have them sliding down to a 2 seed, in my opinion. Now if Syracuse wins the ACC tournament? That should get them a 1 seed. But at this point, would you put the odds of Syracuse winning the ACC tourney above 25%? I don't think you can.

Arizona would be a 1 seed if the season ended now… probably. But without Brandon Ashley their bench is so short that I don't like their odds to stay there. So for this bracket I've dropped them to the 2 seed line, replacing them with Wichita State.

As for the full Field of 68, only one team changed. St. Joseph's moved in, replacing Southern Miss. If you're curious, Colorado was the first team out of the bracket.

Meanwhile, eight teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Alabama, UAB, Buffalo, Butler, Missouri State, Nevada, South Florida, USC. That leaves 48 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.


1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)

3. Iowa
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
3. Michigan
3. Creighton

4. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
4. Virginia
4. Cincinnati

5. Iowa State
5. Kentucky
5. Wisconsin
5. North Carolina

6. Texas
6. Ohio State
6. UCLA
6. VCU

7. Memphis
7. SMU
7. UConn
7. Arizona State

8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Pittsburgh
8. New Mexico
8. Kansas State

9. UMass
9. Oklahoma
9. Xavier
9. California

10. Georgetown
10. George Washington
10. Tennessee
10. Minnesota

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Stanford
11. Missouri
11. Florida State

12. Oklahoma State
12. Oregon
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. Saint Joseph's
12. Clemson

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)

16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Marquette, Providence, St. John's, Baylor, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Colorado, BYU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, Dayton, Richmond, Indiana State, Boise State, Utah, Arkansas, LSU, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, Nebraska, Texas Tech, UTEP, UNLV, Wyoming, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, Wake Forest, La Salle, Seton Hall, Illinois, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Middle Tennessee, Akron, Ohio, Utah State, Oregon State, Washington, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

12 comments:

DMoore said...

Believing that Michigan State will get healthy this year is like the kid who believes he will get a pony for Christmas. Sure, anything can happen, but I wouldn't count on it.

Jeff said...

Haha, I know. Though at least it seems like they're doing the right thing with these injured guys, which is being cautious about leaving them out extra games now to avoid re-injury risks later.

Anonymous said...

Curious on your thoughts on Ohio State vs. Wisky.. Since the Bucks beat Wisky in Madison but you have them a seed lower. Better nonconference wins? Feel they have been pretty even in conference. Not hating just wondering.

Jeff said...

Wisconsin has a significantly better non-conference resume than Ohio State. So if the two are even in Big Ten play, Wisconsin will be seeded higher.

DMoore said...

I really shouldn't be flip there. I actually am leery of MSU getting a #1 seed. Since MSU has to play at Michigan and at OSU, if Michigan can beat them at home I think they win the Big Ten regular season. And while MSU may have the best chance of winning the conference tourney, I don't think it's likely that any particular team will win a conference with that much depth at the top.

Now that I say that, I don't have a good replacement for them. Arizona? Not doing well after the injuries. Villanova? Maybe.

You still have Virginia as a 4. Their road the rest of the way is awfully easy, if they can beat Syracuse at home.

Jeff said...

The issue for Virginia is that they're not viewed in the media as one of the elite ACC teams - Syracuse is the clear top team and Duke the clear second best team. So if Virginia wins the ACC regular season title then it'll be viewed as a fluke, particularly without much in non-conference play.

If Virginia sweeps the regular season and tournament titles then they'll probably have to be a 2 seed, but even then it's hard to see how they get to a 1 seed.

Anonymous said...

What the heck has happened to American in February?

Jeff said...

American? Not sure. To be fair, two of their losses have been really close, and they still clearly have the best PPP differential in the conference, but if they get smoked at BU on Wednesday then I'll have to drop them as the Patriot favorite.

Sburke said...

Curious on your thinking w/r/t Colorado vs OK St. Comparison of resumes right now would make a difficult case for OkSt over Colorado. Are you predicting they knock of KU or KState or both?

Jeff said...

At this point I'd put Oklahoma State's odds of making the NCAA Tournament below 50% also.

The problem for Colorado are those final three road games. They could realistically finish the season on a five game losing streak. Also, they've played really good basketball the past two weeks, but there's a chance that they'll regress a bit closer to the mean. Those are the two reasons that they're still out of my bracket. But like I said... they're the first team out. They're right on the bubble right now.

Anonymous said...

Your preseason prognostications are historically on par with the AP preseason poll. Somewhat relatedly, the AP would probably be better served by releasing their preseason poll and then taking a five month vacation.

Jeff said...

Haha, yes. Ken Pomeroy has written about that before, that the preseason AP Poll is a better predictor of NCAA tourney performance than the final pre-tourney AP Poll.