W-5 BP68

Before I get into the bracket, a quick note that we're now into the final five weeks before Selection Sunday. And that means that I switch to bi-weekly brackets. There will now be a bracket after Wednesday night's games in addition to the regular bracket after Saturday night's games. So look for that next bracket late on Wednesday night (or early Thursday morning).

The most difficult team to deal with this week, without question, was Arizona. We have gotten to see them play 40 minutes without Brandon Ashley and it was unimpressive. But it was only 40 minutes. We simply need to see a larger sample size before we can drop them from the 1 seed line, though I did drop them to the bottom of the 1 seeds.

One team that I had incorrect last week was Oklahoma State. I was relying on strong computer numbers, but the reality was that their level of play was already in steady decline since the loss of Michael Cobbins, and they should have been a line or two lower. And with Stevie Clark gone now and Marcus Smart staring a suspension in the face, Oklahoma State is arguably a bubble team.

There were three changes to the Field of 68 this week. Stanford moves in as an at-large team, finally dropping Baylor out. Weber State moves in as the Big Sky favorite (replacing Northern Colorado) and VMI moves in as the favorite in the impossible to figure out Big South (replacing Charleston Southern).

Just to be clear, I'd really like to drop Missouri and Oregon out also. I don't think either of those teams are making the NCAA Tournament. I just don't see who to replace them with. Consider them placeholders for two teams that will still NCAA bids either by surprisingly winning their conference tournament or by getting really hot in the next month.

The bubble is getting pared down as we're starting to eliminate the dregs of the larger conferences. 12 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Canisius, Charlotte, DePaul, Eastern Michigan, Northern Iowa, Princeton, Rutgers, San Francisco, South Carolina, TCU, Virginia Tech and Washington State. That leaves 61 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

3. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
3. Iowa
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
3. Kentucky

4. Michigan
4. Creighton
4. Iowa State
4. SAINT LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Virginia
5. Cincinnati
5. Wisconsin
5. VCU

6. Ohio State
6. Pittsburgh
6. North Carolina
6. Memphis

7. Texas
7. SMU
7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. UCLA

8. UMass
8. UConn
8. New Mexico
8. Oklahoma

9. Tennessee
9. Kansas State
9. Minnesota
9. Arizona State

10. Oklahoma State
10. Clemson
10. Xavier
10. Florida State

11. California
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. George Washington
11. Georgetown

12. Southern Miss
12. Stanford
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. Missouri
12. Oregon

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Saint Joseph's, Providence, Indiana, Baylor, Colorado, LSU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Marquette, St. John's, West Virginia, UTEP, Indiana State, Boise State, Utah, Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio, UNLV, Wyoming, Washington

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, Houston, USF, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, La Salle, Rhode Island, Butler, Illinois, Penn State, Texas Tech, Towson, UAB, Middle Tennessee, Akron, Buffalo, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nevada, Utah State, Oregon State, USC, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt