W-6 BP68

If there's one thing that sticks out about this new bracket, it's how small the bubble is. First, I want to be clear (since this caused confusion last week) that the teams I have as 12 seeds are teams that I think have a less than 50% chance of making the Tournament. If you ask me whether I think Baylor or Georgetown will make the Tournament, my answer will be "no". But who is being left out that's a glaring omission?

I've talked about Providence on Morning News posts. If the season ended now, they'd probably be in the Tournament, but in my opinion their 6-man rotation is going to lead to some more bad losses the rest of the way. So the first team out of the Field of 68 right now is actually LSU. But really, does anybody have confidence that LSU is going to earn an at-large bid? Me neither. So, don't overreact to the last teams in or first teams out. There's a group of about 10 or 12 teams that are fighting for these last few spots, and whichever play the best the rest of the way are going to be the ones that earn them.

At the top of the bracket, the big stories are Kansas, Arizona and Michigan State all losing, with Syracuse beating Duke, as well as the potential season-ending injury for Brandon Ashley. At this point, though, I'm not moving anything around. None of the top seeds were super impressive, honestly. Even the Syracuse win, as good as it was, came at home, in overtime, with a few dicey referee calls in their favor. If that game was played on a neutral court, I think Duke probably wins.

Two teams in the Field of 68 changed. Southern Miss moved in as an at-large team, replacing Indiana. Southern Miss hasn't really beaten anybody, but they should have an awfully gaudy won/loss record, and that could be enough. The Big West favorite also changed, as I hinted at a couple days ago, with UC-Santa Barbara replacing UC-Irvine as the favorite.

Three more teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Kent State, Hawaii and Temple. That leaves 73 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. We're at the part of the season where we're likely going to start eliminating the dregs of the BCS conferences next week.

Please remember that the following is a projection of Selection Sunday and not a list of where teams would be seeded if the season ended now. The teams in all-caps are the projected automatic bid winners for their respective conference.


1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. LOUISVILLE (AAC)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Kentucky

3. Iowa
3. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
3. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
3. Michigan

4. Creighton
4. SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
4. Iowa State
4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Wisconsin
5. Cincinnati
5. Oklahoma State
5. Pittsburgh

6. St. Louis
6. Virginia
6. Ohio State
6. GONZAGA (WCC)

7. UCLA
7. Memphis
7. North Carolina
7. Tennessee

8. Texas
8. SMU
8. Florida State
8. UMass

9. UConn
9. Oklahoma
9. Minnesota
9. New Mexico

10. Arizona State
10. California
10. Clemson
10. Kansas State

11. Xavier
11. Missouri
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. George Washington

12. Oregon
12. Baylor
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. Southern Miss
12. Georgetown

13. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
15. NORTHERN COLORADO (BIG SKY)

16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Providence, Indiana, Indiana State, Colorado, Stanford, LSU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, Marquette, West Virginia, Boise State, Utah, Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Butler, St. John's, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, UTEP, Ohio, UNLV, Wyoming, Washington

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, Houston, Rutgers, USF, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, La Salle, Rhode Island, DePaul, Illinois, Penn State, TCU, Texas Tech, Towson, UAB, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Canisius, Akron, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Illinois State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Nevada, Utah State, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, San Francisco