Sunday, March 16, 2014

FINAL BP68

There are different angles and areas you can focus on when putting together a bracket. Obviously, "picking the best teams" or "the eye test" is garbage. If we really picked teams that way, Oklahoma State could end up seeded ahead of Wichita State, and Utah would be seeded over UMass. We're picking teams by resumes, and resumes only.

That said, this year I went heavier on non-conference strength of schedule. The last few years that has simply been the trend with the Selection Committee. It doesn't matter so much if you win the games, honestly. Just put together a tough schedule.

For the 1 seeds, I'm giving the edge to Virginia. I just think in the end that sweeping the ACC titles will get them in, even though the rest of their resume is a bit soft. Obviously Michigan would have taken the 1 seed if they'd beaten Michigan State, but they didn't. And over the past few years, the Selection Committee has made it pretty clear that they have contingency brackets based on the results of the late games (Michigan State's 1 seed a couple seasons ago, for example).

The last 2 seed is a killer. Wisconsin deserves to be a 2 seed, not a 3, but I don't see how we can end up with three different Big Ten teams earning 2 seeds. So I'm dropping Wisconsin to a 3 seed. I could end up being wrong, of course.

For the bubble teams, I think I'm more or less in the consensus on the teams getting in. If one of my teams in ends up in the NIT, the most likely are SMU, Dayton and Nebraska. Who's the first team out? Honestly, I think it's Green Bay.

It's not that I necessarily think Green Bay will end up the first team out, but because Green Bay's resume is so different from the other teams, I can see the argument that could be made in the Selection Committee for them. For comparison, you may think Minnesota deserves in before Green Bay, and they may end up being in contention in the Committee room longer than Green Bay, but I don't see an argument anybody could make for Minnesota over Nebraska. Across the board, Nebraska has a better case. I can see an argument for Green Bay over Nebraska or Dayton.

Looking forward to a great NCAA Tournament after a great season.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
1. Arizona
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. Michigan
2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Villanova

3. Wisconsin
3. Kansas
3. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
3. LOUISVILLE (AAC)

4. Creighton
4. Syracuse
4. San Diego State
4. UConn

5. North Carolina
5. Cincinnati
5. NEW MEXICO (MOUNTAIN WEST)
5. UCLA (PAC-12)

6. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
6. VCU
6. Baylor

7. Saint Louis
7. Oregon
7. UMass
7. Kentucky

8. Texas
8. George Washington
8. Pittsburgh
8. SAINT JOSEPH'S (ATLANTIC TEN)

9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Memphis
9. Colorado
9. Kansas State

10. Oklahoma State
10. Arizona State
10. PROVIDENCE (BIG EAST)
10. Xavier

11. BYU
11. Tennessee
11. Stanford
11. Iowa
11. SMU

12. Dayton
12. Nebraska
12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
12. TULSA (CONFERENCE USA)

13. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. WESTERN MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. DELAWARE (COLONIAL)
13. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

14. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
14. LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT)

15. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MILWAUKEE (HORIZON)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. MT ST MARY'S (NEC)
16. CAL POLY (BIG WEST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams:
Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Toledo, California, Missouri

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid but probably shouldn't:
NC State, Georgetown, St. John's, Louisiana Tech, Utah, Georgia

1 comment:

Sam said...

It confuses me when the bracket winds up shaping up like this, with one of the round of 68 games being for a 12 seed and the other one for an 11 seed. I usually think I'm pretty smart, but the methods they use in determining what seeds the play-in games are escape me. Didn't they play for a 14 seed one year?