Monday, February 02, 2015

Morning News: Miami Goes Down To Florida St, Michigan Comes Up Short, Sam Singer's Three, And UConn Loses To Houston

Beilein's done a hell of a job this season, but it looks like he's going to come up short

Miami Goes Down To Florida State Coming off an ugly home loss to Georgia Tech, Miami needed to take care of business against Florida State to stay on the right side of the Tourney bubble. But they didn't. And this game was a slog, clocking in at just 55 possessions, making it the slowest ACC game played this season that didn't involve Virginia (Virginia has played three ACC games slower than 55 possessions but, you know, they're Virginia).

Miami's offense was awful down the stretch. In the final 8:55 they shot 1-for-7 from the field with 5 turnovers. The final possession of the game was a total disaster, and they barely even got an off-balance shot off before the buzzer.

Miami is still 14-7 overall, but they're just 4-4 in ACC play and have more RPI 100+ losses (3) than RPI Top 50 wins (2). It'll be tough for them to earn an at-large bid unless they get to 10-8 in ACC play, all of which makes Monday's home game against Louisville crucial.

Michigan Comes Up Short Michigan has been playing good basketball despite being shorthanded, and they had a real chance to get back to the Tourney bubble by pulling this big road upset over their rivals. And the end of the second half was fun here, with both teams having multiple chances, but after tying things up late their offense fell apart in overtime. Michigan didn't score a single point in the extra frame, including four consecutive misses behind the arc.

If Michigan could get to 12-6 in Big Ten play their RPI would likely move into the Top 50 and they'd likely go Dancing. A win here would have gotten them to 7-3 and made that suddenly look really plausible. But instead they're 6-4 with three road games left against Tourney/bubble-quality opponents. Depending on which computer rating you prefer, the odds of Michigan getting to 12-6 now are down to around 5%.

Michigan State is in the Field of 68, though they're not safe yet. This win makes them 6-3 in Big Ten play and pushes their RPI inside the Top 40, though they still have only a single RPI Top 50 win (Indiana). Their best chance for another one (aside from Iowa, a team they've already beaten, moving back into the Top 50) will be when Ohio State comes to down on February 14th.

Sam Singer's Game Winner It was a slow day of hoops, but the best finish we had was Sam Singer's three-pointer delivering a clutch victory for California over a Washington team totally reeling since the loss of Robert Upshaw. You can watch the finish below:
In two games without Robert Upshaw, both of Washington's opponents had an eFG% over 60% and both scored at least 1.2 PPP. And California isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut - they had broken 1.00 PPP in a game just twice since Christmas coming into this game. But it's what we all knew would happen. Washington was a bubble team with Upshaw, and now they're going to struggle to make the NIT without him.

Connecticut Loses To Houston UConn fans are just going to pretend this season isn't happening. And this season hit a new low here. Once again, as it has generally been when the Huskies have struggled, Ryan Boatright got zero support from his teammates. Boatright had 31 points and 2 assists here, meaning that he was responsible for the majority of UConn's 68 points. Houston's effort was much more balanced.

UConn is in serious trouble now. They're just 11-9 overall and 4-4 in AAC play, with a 3-8 record against the RPI Top 100. Unless they get to 12-6 (which would require an 8-2 finish) they'll have work to do in the AAC tournament. They still have road games at SMU, Temple and Memphis.

No comments: