W-2.5 BP68

The last few days have had a slew of important results, and that has led to changes up and down the bracket.

Starting from the top, we have a new projected 1 seed in Virginia, who played incredibly well against Wake Forest despite being down two starters. Wisconsin drops to a 2 seed.

Further down, there is one new projected at-large team, and it's Purdue. They replace fellow Big Ten team Illinois. In some sense, the bubble got a little bit larger this week. Teams like Indiana and Texas suffered tough losses while teams like Boise State and UCLA kept on winning.

Three projected auto bids changed as well. Cleveland State is the new Horizon favorite, replacing Green Bay (I'm fairly certain, unless I'm reading the rules incorrectly, that Cleveland State will get the #1 seed in the Horizon tourney if they beat Valparaiso at home on Friday). In addition, Central Michigan is the new MAC favorite, replacing Toledo. And North Florida is the new Atlantic Sun favorite, replacing Florida Gulf Coast.

In addition, six teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Evansville, Florida State, La Salle, Nebraska, South Carolina and Washington State. That leaves 36 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
3. Iowa State

4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Baylor
4. Northern Iowa
4. SMU (AAC)

5. Louisville
5. Notre Dame
5. Georgetown
5. Maryland

6. Arkansas
6. West Virginia
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Butler

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Michigan State
7. Xavier
7. Ohio State

8. Providence
8. Oklahoma State
8. Colorado State
8. Cincinnati

9. Temple
9. Dayton
9. St. John's
9. Georgia

10. Mississippi
10. Davidson
10. Indiana
10. Iowa

11. Texas
11. LSU
11. NC State
11. Stanford
11. Miami-Florida

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Purdue
12. Texas A&M
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. IONA (MAAC)

13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. UC DAVIS (BIG WEST)

14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
14. WOFFORD (SOCON)

15. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Boise State, UCLA, Oregon, BYU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Old Dominion, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Connecticut, Clemson, UMass, Rhode Island, Richmond, Minnesota, UTEP, Alabama

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Memphis, George Washington, Seton Hall, Michigan, Kansas State, TCU, Green Bay, Valparaiso, Buffalo, Toledo, Wyoming, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Washington, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St