Sunday, February 08, 2015

W-5 BP68

Before I get to the bracket, I want to note that as we're now five weeks from Selection Sunday I am moving to bi-weekly bracket projections. That means there will be a mid-week bracket released after the completion of Wednesday night's games.

As for this bracket projection, there are three changes to the Field of 68. Georgia and Ole Miss move in as at-larges, replacing UConn and Syracuse. Vermont moves in as the new America East favorite, replacing Stony Brook.

Probably the most controversial thing each week is the 11/12 seeds. And my reminder there is that the teams I have as 12 seeds all have a lower than 50% chance of earning an at-large bid. The same is probably true for the 11 seeds. I don't actually think BYU will earn an at-large bid, I just don't think their route to earning one is any more unrealistic than it is for, say, Tulsa or LSU.

A full 11 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week, including out first eliminations from the major conferences: Creighton, Long Beach State, Missouri, Pepperdine, St. Joseph's, USC, Syracuse, Tulane, Utah State, Virginia Tech and Western Michigan. That leaves 63 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VIRGINIA (ACC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Duke
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Utah
3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Notre Dame
4. Baylor

5. Ohio State
5. Butler
5. CINCINNATI (AAC)
5. Northern Iowa

6. Georgetown
6. SMU
6. West Virginia
6. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

7. Texas
7. Maryland
7. Oklahoma State
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

8. Arkansas
8. Providence
8. Michigan State
8. Xavier

9. Iowa
9. Stanford
9. Dayton
9. Colorado State

10. St. John's
10. Seton Hall
10. Miami-Florida
10. Indiana

11. NC State
11. Illinois
11. Davidson
11. Georgia
11. Mississippi

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Florida
12. BYU
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

14. UC IRVINE (BIG WEST)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. COLGATE (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-NY (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Connecticut, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Minnesota, LSU, Texas A&M

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Rhode Island, Old Dominion, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Alabama, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Clemson, Richmond, Marquette, Michigan, Purdue, Kansas State, TCU, UTEP, Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Illinois State,  Boise State, Wyoming, Arizona State, Colorado, Washington, South Carolina, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, La Salle, UMass, St. Bonaventure, DePaul, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, UC Davis, Western Kentucky, Yale, Akron, Central Michigan, Kent St, Evansville, UNLV, New Mexico, California, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston St

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Can you explain why you STILL don't think UVa will be a 1 seed? You do know that Arizona lost its 3rd game and that UVa just won 2 straight over top 15 teams, right?

Jeff said...

Losing Justin Anderson for somewhere between the next 3-6 weeks is why. If he had been healthy I was going to move them up to the 1 seed line.

Anonymous said...

He's slated to return in time for the tournament. You don't think the committee will take that into consideration if (and it's a big if) they lose several games down the stretch? And beyond that: there is a sizable gap between them and #3/4. Everyone with a better SoS than they do has at least 4 losses.

How many losses does it take to knock them off the one line (taking into account that Kansas, Duke, Arizona, etc. are likely to lose again), and how many do you honestly see them taking (even without Anderson) in their relatively soft final 8 games?

Jeff said...

No, the Selection Committee claims that they take injuries into account, but the reality is that they never do. The reason the media always brings up the case of Kenyon Martin is because nobody can think of a good example since.

The problem for Virginia is if they lose a couple of games down the stretch and then they'll probably have to win the ACC tournament to earn that 1 seed. At this point it seems premature to assume Anderson will be back and at full strength for the ACC tourney.