D-1 BP68

I have to say, I can't recall a season where there was so little clarity between the bubble and the 8/9 seeds. There just is such a little gap between those team that it's going to be very hard, particularly with the way teams get moved around for geographic/conference reasons, to predict which teams will be 9 or 10 or 11 seeds. It's all muddled up.

That said, I made no changes to the at-large teams since Wednesday. With nearly every bubble team struggling in their conference tournaments, teams like BYU and Ole Miss are hanging in, for now. But if Wyoming and/or UConn steal a bid? Things will get interesting.

With Duke and Virginia being eliminated, North Carolina is the new projected ACC tournament champion. You can make a good case for both Duke and Virginia still being 1 seeds at the moment, but if Villanova, Arizona and Wisconsin all win their conference tournaments I do think that they will pass those two ACC squads.

In the one-bid leagues, there were three changes in favorites, due to upsets. UAB is the new Conference USA favorite, replacing Louisiana Tech. UC-Irvine is the new Big West favorite, replacing UC-Davis. Delaware State is the new MEAC favorite, replacing North Carolina Central.

Seven teams were eliminated from at-large contention over the last two days: Alabama, Florida, George Washington, UMass, Pittsburgh, UTEP and Vanderbilt. That leaves just 15 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid, down from 85 when I started the full bubble almost eight weeks ago. At this point, we have fairly good clarity of which teams will be debated on Selection Sunday.

This is my final bracket where I am projecting future games. I will have a "final" bracket projection on Selection Sunday after the last game of the day has been completed.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)

2. Duke
2. Virginia
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Oklahoma
3. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
3. Baylor
3. Iowa State

4. Maryland
4. Notre Dame
4. Utah
4. SMU (AAC)

5. NORTHERN IOWA (MISSOURI VALLEY)
5. West Virginia
5. Louisville
5. Xavier

6. Arkansas
6. Georgetown
6. Wichita State
6. Providence

7. Butler
7. Michigan State
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

8. Cincinnati
8. St. John's
8. Davidson
8. Oregon

9. Colorado State
9. Iowa
9. Temple
9. Dayton

10. Oklahoma State
10. North Carolina State
10. Georgia
10. Ohio State

11. Purdue
11. Texas
11. Boise State
11. Indiana
11. LSU

12. BYU
12. Mississippi
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
12. WOFFORD (SOCON)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

13. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
14. BELMONT (OVC)

15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
15. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MANHATTAN (MAAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. DELAWARE STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Miami, UCLA

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Old Dominion, Stanford, Texas A&M

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Illinois, Rhode Island, Richmond, Buffalo

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Connecticut,  Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Iona, Murray State