The title game finished fewer than 21 hours ago, which makes this the quickest I've ever gotten out a preseason bracket projection (also the quickest I've been able to go into my post-conference previews hibernation)
Speaking of conference previews, they are all here. If you are wondering why I have a team where I have them, and which player transfers I am assuming (and which players I am assuming will be off to the NBA), all of those details are in the relative conference previews.
The next bracket projection will be posted in early July, the week of the NBA Draft. In between then and now I'll post occasionally Morning News posts (they won't be daily.... maybe once every week or two). These will have updates on coaching hires, NBA defections, transfers, et cetera. When the new bracket projection is posted in July, I will take all of that new information into account. But for now, the bracket below is my starting projection.
I have two more things to note to help clear up potential confusion. First of all, remember that I am basing these projections on advanced metrics in addition to player transfers. Whenever anybody is doing preseason projections, they start with a rating for each team and then move that team up or down based on who is coming and going and staying. But so if you believe Maryland was a top ten team this past season then you will probably have them in your top five preseason (as the media will). But if you believe Maryland was actually more like the 30th best team in the nation, as I do, then you will have the Terps a bit lower (though still improved over this past season, certainly). Examples of teams with bad luck in close games this past season that I will have rated higher than most preseason projections you'll see in the media are Vanderbilt and Florida.
Second, if you're new to my website or you were confused by this in the past, the teams listed outside the Field of 68 are listed alphabetically, first by conference and then within each conference. So each ACC team is listed before each Big East team, etc. Doing it alphabetically makes it easier to find teams, and it's also pretty pointless to debate whether Creighton or California is the 33rd team out of the field. Nobody cares. I separate the teams instead into larger groups, so you can tell which teams I think are legitimate bubble teams and which are much longer shots.
Without further ado, here is my projected bracket for Selection Sunday, 2016:
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. North Carolina
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Oklahoma
3. Maryland
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Iowa State
3. SMU (AAC)
4. Miami-Florida
4. Indiana
4. Texas
4. Duke
5. Purdue
5. UCLA
5. Xavier
5. NC State
6. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Wisconsin
6. Baylor
6. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Cincinnati
7. Texas A&M
7. Oregon
7. Dayton
8. Vanderbilt
8. Michigan
8. Georgetown
8. Notre Dame
9. LSU
9. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
9. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. BYU
10. Louisville
10. Rhode Island
10. Butler
11. Illinois State
11. TCU
11. Florida
11. Arkansas
11. Temple
12. Syracuse
12. Boise State
12. BUFFALO (MAC)
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (OVC)
13. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
14. HARVARD (IVY LEAGUE)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Florida State, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Richmond, VCU, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Illinois, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Central Michigan, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, Georgia, South Carolina, Pepperdine
Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Connecticut, Memphis, Clemson, Georgia Tech, St. Bonaventure, Creighton, St. John's, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, UTEP, Akron, Kent State, Evansville, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, California, Washington, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Saint Mary's
Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Vermont, Houston, Boston College, Virginia Tech, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, DePaul, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Northeastern, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Cleveland State, Oakland, Princeton, Monmouth, Siena, Western Michigan, Loyola-Chicago, Fresno State, Wyoming, Murray State, North Dakota State, Arizona State, USC, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Portland, Santa Clara
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6 comments:
Curious why everyone does these before the NBA draft deadline and also with people yet to sign.
If Kentucky loses 7 players and misses out on Ingram and Zimmermann then they will no way be the #2 overall seed with only Ulis, Lee, and Poythress returning.
Maryland as a 3 seed. They should be significantly better and deeper next year. You have them much lower then anyone I have seen which isn't surprising since you had them as a 7 seed this year until March.
I explained all of those things.
1) I took my best guess on NBA draft declarations and wrote my assumptions in the conference previews. I'll do an updated bracket in July to fix the ones I missed on.
2) Maryland was only around the 30th best team in the nation this past season. Their great luck in close games earned them a high seed, but when I'm putting together my bracket I have to start with them as being the ~30th best team in the country.
I go through this every year with the fan bases of teams that got lucky in close games one season. Because it's random, it basically never carries over to the next season, so I'm assuming that Maryland regresses back to average luck in close games.
Just for clarification. Was Georgetown projected before the DSR news broke?
Yes, this projection assumes DSR leaves Georgetown.
The way it sounds now is that he says he's coming back but might still change his mind. But by the time I do a bracket again, in July, we'll know his status for certain. If he's still on Georgetown's roster, the Hoyas will slide up the bracket a few lines.
@anonymous it may be unfortunate that Maryland is lower in rank, but keep in mind that Jeff accurately and precisely predicted their tournament fate. If you look at his track record, I don't think it's hard to tell he's pretty unbiased. And I loved the Juan Dixon Steve Blake Maryland team. Same with the Vasquez team that smashed Duke. But take your beer goggles off dude. Jeff knows his shit through and through.
Jeff, keep doing your thing. Im always appreciative of all the hard work you put in.
Thanks, BIG_Scen. That's kind of you.
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