Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Post-Draft BP68

Since my preseason bracket projection we've had a lot of changes. First, NBA Draft decisions, then a slew of transfers and recruits that still had to sign.

In all, seven teams moved into the Field of 68: California, Central Michigan, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Providence, UNLV and Utah. The seven teams that dropped out were Arkansas, Boise State, Buffalo, Florida, Syracuse, TCU and Temple. If you're wondering why I'm not totally buying the hype on teams like Maryland or California or any other team, just click on the tags on the left side of the page, and read what I've written about each team.

There are a lot of changes, but if there's one overarching theme it's that the bubble looks really deep this coming season. I thought for sure that I would put teams like Florida State, Illinois, Tulsa and George Washington in as at-large teams, but just couldn't think of another team to drop out.

Why does the bubble seem stronger? Increased use of the graduate transfer rule to fill roster holes is a reason. But in general, college basketball just keeps getting better and deeper. There is just so much talent that ends up at second tier programs simply because there aren't enough scholarships available for all of them at top tier schools.

In other words, we should have another fantastic season ahead of us, and one that is likely to be less top heavy than this past season.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday 2016:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. Virginia
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Maryland

3. Oklahoma
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Iowa State
3. SMU (AAC)

4. Duke
4. Purdue
4. Texas
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

5. Indiana
5. UCLA
5. Xavier
5. DAVIDSON (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. Wisconsin
6. Oregon
6. Baylor
6. Texas A&M

7. Cincinnati
7. Utah
7. Miami-Florida
7. Dayton

8. Michigan
8. Louisville
8. California
8. Georgetown

9. NC State
9. Notre Dame
9. LSU
9. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

10. UConn
10. West Virginia
10. Ohio State
10. Vanderbilt

11. Pittsburgh
11. Providence
11. Illinois State
11. UNLV
11. BYU

12. Rhode Island
12. Butler
12. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC)

13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (OVC)
13. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
14. HARVARD (IVY LEAGUE)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, Florida State, Syracuse, George Washington, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Iowa, Oklahoma State, TCU, Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, Boise State, Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Pepperdine

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Creighton, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, UTEP, Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Evansville, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Arizona State, Colorado, Washington, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Vermont, Houston, Boston College, Virginia Tech, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Northeastern, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Oakland, Princeton, Monmouth, Siena, Western Michigan, Loyola-Chicago, Fresno State, Wyoming, Murray State, North Dakota State, USC, Washington State, Missouri, Portland, Santa Clara

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Arizona as a 1 and Duke as a 4? I am starting to think you work for the BigLead and troll for clicks and attention. Duke is probably better and even if they aren't then no way its that big of a gap. Top two players coming back are Gabe York and Tarczewski and you are undermining the loss of TJ McConnell.

Jeff said...

I don't think "undermining" is the word you were looking for there.

Anyway, what you are forgetting is that they add Ryan Anderson and Mark Tollefsen, who are both Pac-12 quality starters already. If you include them with that really strong recruiting class, there is simply no team in the nation adding as much talent as Arizona is.

Anonymous said...

Great analysis man, awesome to have something insightful to read during the offseason. What is your reasoning behind UConn landing at a #10 seed? I'm definitely a biased fan but see them as a top 20 team that has major talent and is very deep with the additions of Gibbs and Shonn Miller. Add those two into the lineup of Purvis Daniel Hamilton and Brimah with Jalen Adams as 6th man and I think they can make some noise.

Jeff said...

I like those two additions for UConn. The problem is that they were a significantly worse team than people realized this past season. With their late run in the AAC tourney, people were talking about their bubble chances, yet they were ranked in the 70s or worse by most computer ratings. So putting them as a 10 seed is saying that they will be significantly improved.

Anonymous said...

Coming from a Badger fan who still gets nightmares of Tyus Jones making a 3...

How is Duke a 4 seed, when they have the top recruiting class? I get that they just lost Jones, Okafor, and Winslow, but they were all freshman (And I know Cook is gone.) This year, Duke has another group of stud freshman coming in this year. The #1 overall recruiting class if I remember correctly. On top of that, Grayson Allen will become a big-time, nationally known player this year. Why can't a top recruiting class + Grayson Allen do what a top recruiting class did last year?

Jeff said...

Those three freshman that Duke lost were their three best players. It's asking a bit much for the incoming recruiting class to end up being that good right away - that's not normal.

Also, it's a mistake to overreact to one game that Grayson Allen had to think that he'll suddenly be capable of being one of the best players on a national title contending team. He might end up being the rich man's Marcus Lee.

Anonymous said...

I'm not basing my thoughts on Grayson Allen from one championship game. I was wowed by the kid watching his highschool tapes. That kid will be good, and could thrive in the "Everyone hates him because he's good, white, and plays for Duke" role.

You can't think that they asked their freshman last year to win a national championship when they first came on campus. But they did. Now, their recruiting classes are shockingly similar. The tale of the tape for the two recruiting classes, keeping the position by year. (The x/100 is where they fell in ESPN's top 100 list)

2014 Winslow - SF, 6'6", 5 Star, 15/100, McD All-Am
2015 Ingram - SF, 6'8", 5 Star, 3/100, Mc D All-Am

2014 Okafor - C, 6'10", 5 star, 1/100, McD All Am
2015 Jeter - C, 6'10", 5 star, 11/100, McD All Am

2014 Jones - PG, 6'1", 5 star, 4/100, McD All Am
2015 Thomas - PG, 6'1", 4 star, 17/100, McD All Am

2014 Allen - SG, 6'4", 5 star, 21/100, MCd All Am
2015 Kennard - SG, 6'5", 4 star, 24/100, MCd All Am

I'm not saying that these kids will be national champs. I'm just saying, a 4 seed, with a top coach of all time, a recruiting class just like they had for a championship team, plus a season for kids already there to improve their game, sounds harsh.

Jeff said...

Now here's your next task: Compare Ingram, Jeter, Thomas and Kennard not to those four guys, but to the average player over the last 10 years with those rankings.

As I said, Winslow, Okafor and Jones all outdid expectations. To expect a second straight recruiting class to do that is more than I'm willing to assume.

Marcus Morgan said...

I am a huge college basketball fan. I also like to research to see what colleges the new recruits are going to. I am a big Duke fan as well, so I like to see who they are going to have on the team next year. I am glad that I found this article because it had a lot of good information. Thanks for posting this article. http://www.onpointbball.com/what_we_do.php

Luke Paldino said...

Chances Oklahoma State and Florida can get to the dance next year?

Jeff said...

I like Oklahoma State's chances better than Florida's chance, but neither would be a particularly big surprise to go dancing.

Luke Paldino said...

Thank you sir. Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Utah was in the dance. Tcu wasnt.