Saturday, December 26, 2015

W-11 BP68

Christmas Week is always a quiet week in college basketball, though we did end in a flurry with that fantastic Louisville/Kentucky game.

As I often do, I see more positives in the team that loses a big game (Louisville) than the team that wins a big game (Kentucky). For one, losing by two points on the road is itself slight evidence that you are the better team. Second, Louisville was missing a more important player (Mathiang) to Kentucky (Briscoe) - Louisville's paint defense just took such a large step back without Mathiang. And most importantly, Kentucky shot out of their minds, hitting 11-for-23 behind the arc. In fact, the last time Kentucky hit 11 or more three-pointers in a regulation game at a 47%+ rate was November 16, 2012 - more than three years ago.

Because of those positives, Louisville actually slides up a seed line in my projected bracket, from a 5 seed to a 4 seed. Kentucky stays where they were, as the SEC favorite and a projected 2 seed (though the gap is small enough that Kentucky is still probably earning a 1 seed if they sweep the SEC titles).

Louisville's strong performance was not the only news from this week. The Diamond Head Classic was a break-out tournament for Hawaii, who enter the bracket as the new Big West favorite (replacing UC-Irvine). Harvard also showed a strong resurgence after a slow start to their season, emphasizing that the Ivy League should be a really fun four-team race. And of course Buddy Hield was dominant, and will potentially become the National Player of the Year favorite if Denzel Valentine's injury gets dragged out or if he's not at 100% when he returns.

In addition to Hawaii replacing UC-Irvine, there is one other change to the bracket, which is Colorado entering and Georgetown exiting.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. Virginia
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Oklahoma

3. Duke
3. Purdue
3. Xavier
3. Maryland

4. Iowa State
4. Baylor
4. Louisville
4. Miami-Florida

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. UCONN (AAC)
5. Cincinnati
5. Butler

6. Vanderbilt
6. Texas A&M
6. West Virginia
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

7. Iowa
7. Oregon
7. Utah
7. Pittsburgh

8. UCLA
8. Texas
8. Indiana
8. Providence

9. Michigan
9. South Carolina
9. Florida State
9. Florida

10. Notre Dame
10. Davidson
10. California
10. Oregon State

11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Wisconsin
11. Colorado
11. George Washington
11. Syracuse
11. LSU

12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

14. UT-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
14. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. BELMONT (OVC)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, VCU, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Boise State, UNLV, Arizona State, USC, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Creighton, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, William & Mary, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Houston, Temple, Clemson, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, TCU, UC-Irvine, UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Kent State, Southern Illinois, Fresno State, New Mexico, Stanford, Washington State, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas-Little Rock

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why the SMU it is not in the bracket?

Jeff said...

SMU is ineligible this year because of NCAA violations.