Sunday, January 24, 2016

W-7 BP68

We are now nearly halfway through conference play, and so the die has already been cast for many teams which have already had good or bad luck in close games or with injuries. And so for the first time this season I have two teams from the same conference as projected 1 seeds: Kansas and Oklahoma from the Big 12.

At the bottom of the at-larges, the Pac-12 continues to dominate the discussion. The problem for getting a large majority of your league in the Tourney, however, is that every game in conference play requires a winner and a loser. That means that some teams, even if they're pretty good, are going to pick up losses. And so this week, two Pac-12 teams ended up dropping out of the projected bracket (UCLA and Oregon State). In their place, Saint Mary's and Saint Joseph's move in.

Meanwhile, 8 new teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Air Force, Cal Poly, George Mason, Green Bay, Oral Roberts, South Florida, Tennessee Tech, and Vermont. That leaves 111 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Xavier
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Purdue
3. Maryland

4. Louisville
4. Texas A&M
4. West Virginia
4. Duke

5. Iowa State
5. Miami-Florida
5. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Oregon

6. Indiana
6. Michigan
6. Baylor
6. USC

7. UCONN (AAC)
7. Providence
7. Pittsburgh
7. Butler

8. Florida
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
8. Notre Dame
8. Vanderbilt

9. California
9. Cincinnati
9. George Washington
9. Texas

10. Utah
10. Seton Hall
10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. Florida State

11. Saint Mary's
11. VCU
11. South Carolina
11. LSU
11. Saint Joseph's
11. Colorado

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)

14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. BELMONT (OVC)

15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Syracuse, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Evansville, Oregon State, UCLA

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Boise State, Stanford, Washington, Arkansas, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Houston, Memphis, Temple, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Davidson, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UC-Irvine, James Madison, UNC-Wilmington, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Yale, Northern Illinois, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, UT-Arlington

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, East Carolina, Tulane, Albany, Boston College, Duquesne, Fordham, La Salle, UMass, Saint Louis, DePaul, St. John's, Weber State, Minnesota, Penn State, Rutgers, TCU, UC Santa Barbara, Long Beach State, Charleston, Elon, Northeastern, Towson, Marshall, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, Milwaukee, Oakland, Iona, Siena, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, Illinois State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming, Tennessee State, Washington State, Navy, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, East Tennessee State, Mercer, Texas A&M-CC, IPFW, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota State, Georgia State, Louisiana Lafayette, Pepperdine

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Surprised you still have Duke as a 4. I am a Duke fan and I would be shocked if they get a 4 seed. Their schedule is back loaded and I am not sure they win 10 conference games at this point. Still play at Miami and then a pesky GT team. Then they have a stretch with Louisville and UVA at home followed by UNC and Louisville on the road. And play at Pitt and UNC in 2 of their final 3 games.

I am thinking a 7. Also, not many marquee wins on their resume.

DMoore said...

Re: Duke, it depends when they get Jefferson back. Their offense has still been very potent (#2 in KenPom), and the question is whether they can get their defense in order. Re-adding their best front line defender would be huge, especially if he can return to averaging a double-double.

The other thing to realize is that their losses have been very close. They are still losses on the resume, but none of them are bad losses -- all of them currently top 60 KenPom teams.

You're right though, the schedule is back loaded. It will really help or really hurt.

The Indiana win will look better and better as the season progresses.

Jeff said...

Correct. If they get Amile Jefferson back in three weeks, like they're hoping, then a 4 seed is probably a good projection. If he doesn't get back this season then I agree that something like a 7 seed might be more realistic.