Sunday, January 17, 2016

W-8 BP68

The first thing I want to discuss is the SEC. There is no question that the best team in SEC play thus far has been Texas A&M. However, we have seen these young and talented Calipari teams scuffle early in the season before finishing strong. Their performance should regress to the talent. And so that is why, for now, I am keeping Kentucky as the projected SEC tournament champion, even though Texas A&M has the inside track to the conference's regular season title.

There were three changes overall to the Field of 68 this week. Seton Hall and VCU move in as projected at-large teams, replacing Ohio State and Texas Tech. And Arkansas-Little Rock enters as the Sun Belt favorite, replacing UT-Arlington.

This is also the first week of the "Full Bubble", which I start every year on the first bracket on or after January 15th. The Full Bubble is an exercise in mathematically eliminating teams from at-large contention with each bracket. I start with a ton of teams, and then each bracket will narrow it down until we just have the Selection Sunday bubble.

This is a very wide net, as you can imagine. For a team to be eliminated, it means that even if they win every single game between now and their conference tournament title game, they still have no chance at an at-large bid. This means, for example, that every single major conference team is still listed below. Technically, Rutgers could run off a ten game winning streak and get at-large hype. Realistically they won't, and it's likely that none of the teams in the "Need a miracle" category will eventually earn an at-large bid, but it's merely a formality at this point. Rutgers will be eliminated soon enough.

Right now, I have 119 teams listed below. By the time we hit Selection Sunday it'll be somewhere around a dozen.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)

2. Oklahoma
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Virginia
2. Xavier

3. Purdue
3. Maryland
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Iowa

4. Louisville
4. Texas A&M
4. Duke
4. West Virginia

5. Iowa State
5. Miami-Florida
5. Baylor
5. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. Butler
6. Oregon
6. Michigan
6. Indiana

7. UCONN (AAC)
7. USC
7. Providence
7. Pittsburgh

8. Florida
8. Vanderbilt
8. South Carolina
8. California

9. Cincinnati
9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Notre Dame
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

10. Florida State
10. Colorado
10. George Washington
10. Texas

11. LSU
11. Utah
11. Seton Hall
11. UCLA
11. Oregon State
11. VCU

12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
13. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

14. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
15. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Saint Joseph's, Creighton, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Evansville, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Houston, Tulsa, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Syracuse, Davidson, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Boise State, Arizona State, Stanford, Washington, Arkansas, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Temple, NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UC-Irvine, James Madison, UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Yale, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Indiana State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Fresno State, UNLV, New Mexico, Washington State, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, UT-Arlington

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane, Albany, Vermont, Boston College, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason, La Salle, UMass, Saint Louis, DePaul, St. John's, Weber State, Minnesota, Penn State, Rutgers, TCU, Cal Poly, UC Santa Barbara, Long Beach State, Charleston, Elon, Towson, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Green Bay, Milwaukee, Oakland, Iona, Siena, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, Missouri State, Air Force, Colorado State, Nevada, Utah State, Wyoming, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, Navy, Auburn, Mississippi State, East Tennessee State, Mercer, Texas A&M-CC, IPFW, Nebraska-Omaha, North Dakota State, Oral Roberts, Georgia State, Louisiana Lafayette, Pepperdine

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