W-2 BP68

This is my final bracket projection before conference tournaments kick off. The season goes by so fast, doesn't it?

One note as we head into conference tournament season is that there will be plenty of upsets, and that makes projecting the 13-16 seeds always so difficult. If I have a team projected as a 15 seed, for example, the odds are that enough 12-14 seeds will get knocked off in their conference tournaments for that projected 15 seed to slide up to a 14 seed. The hard part is trying to guess which teams will get knocked off. In reality, there's just a lot of randomness that is impossible to predict in one-and-done conference tournaments.

One thing to watch over the next couple of weeks is whether the bubble expands and becomes chaotic. Quite a few teams that we thought were safe for at-large bids a couple of weeks ago are suddenly in a little bit of trouble (Providence, USC, Michigan, Florida, and South Carolina). There is certainly more parity this season than this season, and it could lead to a wild final few days before Selection Sunday.

In this bracket projection, however, I am not changing my projected at-large teams. The one change is in the Big South, where Coastal Carolina replaces UNC-Asheville as the favorite to take the auto-bid.

In addition, here were 5 more teams eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: Evansville, Kansas State, Nebraska, Tennessee, and William & Mary. That leaves just 30 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. Miami-Florida

3. West Virginia
3. Duke
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

4. Oregon
4. Iowa
4. Utah
4. Maryland

5. Iowa State
5. Indiana
5. Purdue
5. Baylor

6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Texas
6. Texas A&M
6. California

7. UCONN (AAC)
7. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
7. Saint Joseph's

8. Notre Dame
8. Seton Hall
8. Texas Tech
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

9. Pittsburgh
9. Cincinnati
9. USC
9. Providence

10. St. Bonaventure
10. Syracuse
10. VCU
10. Michigan

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Florida
11. Saint Mary's
11. Vanderbilt
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. Tulsa
12. South Carolina
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

13. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Butler, Oregon State, Alabama, LSU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Florida State, Ohio State, Washington

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Creighton, Princeton, Stanford

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Georgetown, Marquette, Northwestern, Penn State, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, Boise State, Arizona State, UCLA, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, BYU