Thursday, February 25, 2016

W-2.5 BP68

More than most weeks, there was a lot of movement near the top of the bracket. Xavier is moving into serious contention for a 1 seed, while Arizona and Iowa suffered significant upsets. The battle for 3 and 4 seeds is also awfully tight.

At the bottom of the bracket, the bubble has gotten a little bit tougher over the past few days. I did finally feel the need to drop LSU out, and replaced them with Vanderbilt, but there are significantly fewer at-large bids up for grabs. Every team I have listed as an 8 seed or better looks reasonably safe for the NCAA Tournament at this point. If the season ended now, there would only be five or six at-large spots legitimately contested.

There were 7 more teams eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Illinois, Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, NC State, Ohio, and Rhode Island. That leaves just 35 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

3. Iowa
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Miami-Florida
4. Duke
4. Oregon
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Utah
5. Iowa State
5. Indiana
5. Baylor

6. Purdue
6. Texas A&M
6. California
6. Texas

7. USC
7. UCONN (AAC)
7. Colorado
7. Wisconsin

8. Notre Dame
8. Saint Joseph's
8. Seton Hall
8. Texas Tech

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Florida
9. Pittsburgh
9. Cincinnati

10. Syracuse
10. Providence
10. Michigan
10. St. Bonaventure

11. VCU
11. South Carolina
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Saint Mary's
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. Tulsa
12. Vanderbilt
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

13. STONY BROOK (AMEICA EAST)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Butler, Oregon State, Alabama, LSU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Florida State, Ohio State, Washington, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Davidson, Creighton, Princeton, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Marquette, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, William & Mary, Evansville, Boise State, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Arizona at 2 is very interesting. I could see it potentially if they win out (would include a win at utah and a couple solid wins in Pac 12 tourney) but their ceiling at this point seems like a 4 maybe a 3. They don't have much to speak for on their resume right now.