W-3 BP68

The LSU at-large case continues to be one of the strangest at-large cases we've ever seen, and it's hard to really know what to do with them.

The media is constantly trying to advance the argument that the Selection Committee ignores games that involve injured players (or even the suspended Jim Boeheim), in large part because the Selection Committee says in public that they do so. But if there's one rule for understanding the Selection process it's to ignore everything the Selection Committee says in public. There simply is no evidence of them doing it.

That said, we do know that more recent games matter significantly more than early season games. They have always weighed recent action as more meaningful. If LSU can get to 12-6 in SEC play, does the Selection Committee really keep that out, regardless of their non-conference struggles? And if you wanted to argue that, if it comes down to it, the Selection Committee might prefer a blue chip name like Ben Simmons over a relatively anonymous team like Tulsa? It's hard to say that they won't do that.

So for now, LSU is clinging onto the last projected spot in my bracket below. That means that their odds of getting in are still below 50%, but I'm not ready to slide in a team like Alabama.

There was still one change to the Field of 68 since Wednesday, with Tulsa moving in, replacing Florida State. Also, 9 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Illinois State, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Southern Illinois, and UT-Arlington. That leaves just 42 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's where I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Xavier
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Miami-Florida
4. Duke
4. Oregon
4. Iowa State

5. Baylor
5. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Purdue
5. Texas A&M

6. USC
6. Indiana
6. Utah
6. Texas

7. Notre Dame
7. California
7. Florida
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. Saint Joseph's
8. VCU
8. Seton Hall
8. Wisconsin

9. Colorado
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Texas Tech
9. Pittsburgh

10. Providence
10. Michigan
10. Syracuse
10. Cincinnati

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. South Carolina
11. Saint Mary's
11. St. Bonaventure
11. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. Tulsa
12. LSU
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
13. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)

14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Florida State, George Washington, Butler, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Clemson, Creighton, Ohio State, Oregon State, Washington, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Davidson, Princeton, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Georgetown, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Hofstra, William & Mary, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Evansville, Boise State, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee