Sunday, February 14, 2016

W-4 BP68

The season is in crunch time right now. We're down to the final two full weeks of regular season basketball before he start the conference tournaments.

The theme of this week was a strengthening of the bubble. The media likes to spend every February and March whining about how weak the bubble looks (before ironically bemoaning the teams that got robbed on Selection Sunday), but most years, by definition, the bubble is "average". It's too early to say what it will be this season, but over the past few days we saw quite a few bubble teams pick up massive wins to firm up their place in the Field of 68.

In all, there were two changes to the Field of 68 since Wednesday night. Saint Bonaventure moved in as an at-large team, replacing Butler. And UNC-Wilmington moved in as the Colonial favorite, replacing William & Mary.

As for the full bubble, 11 teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday night: Albany, Auburn, Buffalo, Charleston, Colorado State, Fresno State, James Madison, Kent State, Louisiana Lafayette, Oakland, and Old Dominion. That leaves just 54 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. In contrast, when I started the full bubble four weeks ago, we had 119 teams still with a chance, meaning that more than half of those teams have since been eliminated.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. West Virginia

4. Oregon
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Miami-Florida
4. Purdue

5. Iowa State
5. Duke
5. Texas A&M
5. USC

6. Baylor
6. Texas
6. Indiana
6. Utah

7. Notre Dame
7. Florida
7. Saint Joseph's
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. California
8. Syracuse
8. VCU
8. Providence

9. Wisconsin
9. Seton Hall
9. South Carolina
9. Pittsburgh

10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
10. Michigan
10. Colorado

11. LSU
11. Florida State
11. Saint Mary's
11. Cincinnati
11. MONMOUTH (MAAC)

12. Vanderbilt
12. Saint Bonaventure
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, Butler, Texas Tech

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Kansas State, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Temple, Davidson, Northwestern, Princeton, Stanford, UCLA, Alabama, Arkansas,

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Memphis, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Hofstra, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Evansville, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, UT-Arlington

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