Thursday, February 11, 2016

W-4.5 BP68

There was just one change to the projected Field of 68 over the last few days, with Wisconsin replacing George Washington. However, we are getting much better clarity about the bubble. Every team listed as a projected 7 seed or better is awfully safe for an at-large bid, while the number of teams outside the bracket with a realistic shot continues to dwindle.

In all, 10 teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Central Florida, Central Michigan, DePaul, East Carolina, Fordham, Indiana State, Mercer, Siena, Wake Forest, and Washington State. That leaves 65 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized are the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. Xavier
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. West Virginia

4. Oregon
4. Purdue
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Texas A&M

5. Miami-Florida
5. Iowa State
5. USC
5. Baylor

6. Texas
6. Duke
6. Indiana
6. Utah

7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Florida
7. Notre Dame
7. UCONN (AAC)

8. Saint Joseph's
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Saint Mary's
8. VCU

9. Colorado
9. Michigan
9. Florida State
9. Syracuse

10. Providence
10. Seton Hall
10. South Carolina
10. Pittsburgh

11. Butler
11. Cincinnati
11. California
11. Vanderbilt
11. Wisconsin
11. LSU

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Washington

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Oregon State, UCLA, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Temple, Georgia Tech, Davidson, Rhode Island,  Northwestern, UC-Irvine, UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Evansville, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Houston, Memphis, Albany, NC State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Richmond, Marquette, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Long Beach State, Charleston, Hofstra, James Madison, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Oakland, Buffalo, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Louisiana Lafayette, UT-Arlington

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting time to bring Wisconsin--should be pretty heavy underdogs in 3 of their next 4 games. Game against Michigan will be huge in a couple weeks.

Anonymous said...

Another thing--any possibility for bid stealers this year? Besides *maybe* Gonzaga it is looking very very bleak.

Jeff said...

There's always a possibility that a 6-12 team wins a Power 5 conference tournament, but the odds of that kind of "bid stealer" are never great.

As for Wisconsin, yes, their remaining schedule is not helpful, which is why I've left them out until now. If they get to 10-8, however, I think that one win in the Big Ten tournament might be enough to get them in. Two wins almost surely would be.

Cmart102 said...

Looking at ESPNs bracketology, I saw they currently have Temple in at a 12 seed. Am I taking crazy pills? How are they even close?

Jeff said...

Joe Lunardi has had a weird fascination with gaudy conference won-loss records this season. It's the same reason that he put LSU in his bracket when they also wouldn't have been even close in the real world. Temple is 7-8 vs the RPI Top 200 with an RPI that is 68th and only a single win over a currently ranked team. No way does that get in.

Anonymous said...

Lunardi has Temple in as an automatic qualifier because they're leading the AAC. He doesn't predict what's going to happen, he goes by if the season ended today. Also why he has LSU in, I believe.