W-5 BP68

The big news this week was Louisville self-imposing a postseason ban. With them and SMU, two potential Final Four teams, out of the mix, the bubble gets significantly softer. The beneficiary this week was George Washington, who knocked off VCU and slid in as a projected at-large team.

Two auto-bids changed this week as well. William & Mary replaces Hofstra as the Colonial favorite, while UNC-Asheville replaces High Point as the Big South favorite.

Meanwhile, we're starting to eliminate the dregs of the major conferences. 14 teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Boston College, Georgia State, IPFW, Marshall, UNLV, Northern Illinois, Pepperdine, Rutgers, St. John's, Saint Louis, Texas A&M-CC, Towson, Utah State, and Weber State. That leaves 75 teams currently out of the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now. Teams capitalized as the projected auto-bid winners for their respective conferences.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Oklahoma

2. Xavier
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Iowa
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

3. Virginia
3. Maryland
3. KENTUCKY (SEC)
3. West Virginia

4. Texas A&M
4. Oregon
4. Purdue
4. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Iowa State
5. Miami-Florida
5. USC
5. Baylor

6. Texas
6. Duke
6. Providence
6. Indiana

7. Utah
7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Florida
7. Notre Dame

8. Michigan
8. UCONN (AAC)
8. Seton Hall
8. GONZAGA (WCC)

9. Saint Mary's
9. VCU
9. Saint Joseph's
9. Florida State

10. Colorado
10. Pittsburgh
10. Syracuse
10. Cincinnati

11. South Carolina
11. Butler
11. Vanderbilt
11. LSU
11. California
11. George Washington

12. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
12. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
12. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. CHATTANOOGA (SOUTHERN)
13. WILLIAM & MARY (COLONIAL)

14. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
14. HAWAII (BIG WEST)
14. UAB (CONFERENCE USA)
14. YALE (IVY LEAGUE)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. NORTH FLORIDA (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)

16. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
St. Bonaventure, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Washington

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Tulsa, Clemson, Creighton, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Evansville, Oregon State, UCLA, Arkansas, Georgia, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Houston, Memphis, Temple, Georgia Tech, Davidson, Rhode Island, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, UC-Irvine, Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Boise State, Arizona State, Stanford, Alabama, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, East Carolina, Albany, NC State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Duquesne, Fordham, Richmond, DePaul, Marquette, Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Long Beach State, Charleston, James Madison, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Oakland, Siena, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Illinois State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mercer, Louisiana Lafayette, UT-Arlington