Sunday, December 25, 2016

W-11 BP68

Things are always a bit quiet during finals week, and so there was little change near the top of the bracket. There was some churn near the bottom, however, as bad losses knocked Houston, Providence, and Syracuse out of the projected bracket. In their place entered Kansas State, Seton Hall, and TCU.

One observation this season is that the battle for 1 seeds is awfully wide open. While there have been some recent seasons where, even by the middle of December, it was obvious that we were down to just five or six serious contenders for 1 seeds, at this point I can make an argument for at least twelve. And we might not get too much clarity until these teams start playing each other in conference play.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. North Carolina
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. UCLA (PAC-12)
3. Baylor
3. Louisville
3. Indiana

4. Creighton
4. West Virginia
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Arizona

5. Purdue
5. Butler
5. Florida
5. Xavier

6. Florida State
6. Iowa State
6. CINCINNATI (AAC)
6. Notre Dame

7. Saint Mary's
7. Oregon
7. Michigan
7. South Carolina

8. USC
8. Clemson
8. Minnesota
8. Miami-Florida

9. Texas Tech
9. Virginia Tech
9. Ohio State
9. Arkansas

10. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
10. SMU
10. Texas A&M
10. Oklahoma State

11. Michigan St
11. Rhode Island
11. Maryland
11. Kansas State

12. Seton Hall
12. TCU
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)

13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)

16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Temple, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, VCU, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Northwestern, California, Colorado

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
UCF, UConn, Memphis, Davidson, St. Bonaventure, Illinois, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, San Diego St, Stanford, Utah, Georgia, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
George Mason, George Washington, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Penn St, Rutgers, Charleston, Old Dominion, Rice, Evansville, Illinois St, Loyola-Chicago, Northern Iowa, Boise St, New Mexico, Arizona St, Washington, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I went through and made my first attempt at predicting the field. I then compared my results to your 2nd effort. At the top we were remarkably similar...among the top 5 seeds, I only Wichita St outside compared to your top 5 seeds...looks like Oregon was the team I had as a #5 that you didn't. Obviously there were some differences inside those top 5 seeds (I had UCLA as a #1, you had them as a #3, I had Purdue as a #3, you a #5).

In terms of making the field, we had 5 differences (outside of the smaller conference 1-bid leagues). You had a bevy of Big 12 teams in (Oklahoma St, TCU and Texas Tech) as well as Ohio St and Va Tech. In those places I had Pitt/VCU/Cal/Georgetown...and Texas. I knew picking Texas was projecting improvement from their play to date. If UT loses to Kent St tonight, my meager faith would be extinguished. Ohio St was my next team in (for whatever that is worth).