Sunday, January 29, 2017

W-6 BP68

Having the Big 12/SEC Challenge in the middle of the season like this is an unquestioned good. I'm happy just for the Kansas/Kentucky game, but the quality non-conference opponents gave a chance for several bubble teams to improve their situations. It helped provide clarity, and also helped Villanova move back to the #1 overall seed in my projected bracket.

The biggest change to the top half of the bracket is Duke dropping precipitously, as the Blue Devils defense has really fallen apart, even with Saturday's comeback win over Wake Forest. Near the bottom of the bracket two at-large spots changed, as VCU and Oklahoma State moved in to replace Rhode Island and TCU.

Three projected auto-bids from one-bid leagues changed this week as well. Valparaiso replaces Oakland as the Horizon favorite, UNC-Asheville replaces Winthrop as the Big South favorite, and Mount St. Mary's replaces LIU as the NEC favorite.

In addition, 7 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Harvard, Louisiana Tech, UMass, Missouri, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, and Toledo. That leaves just 69 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. North Carolina
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. GONZAGA (PAC-12)(WCC)

3. Baylor
3. Louisville
3. West Virginia
3. Purdue

4. Duke
4. UCLA
4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. Florida

5. Oregon
5. Florida State
5. Saint Mary's
5. SMU

6. Butler
6. Notre Dame
6. South Carolina
6. Xavier

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Creighton
7. Maryland
7. Iowa State

8. Indiana
8. Kansas State
8. Northwestern
8. Virginia Tech

9. Miami-Florida
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Michigan
9. Clemson

10. Marquette
10. Minnesota
10. Utah
10. Wake Forest

11. USC
11. Arkansas
11. Oklahoma State
11. VCU
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)

12. Michigan State
12. California
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Rhode Island, TCU, Texas Tech, Illinois St, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Syracuse, Seton Hall, Illinois, Ohio St, Georgia, Texas A&M

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
UCF, Memphis, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Providence, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Boston College, Davidson, George Mason, George Washington, Richmond, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Charleston, Northeastern, Marshall, Iona, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Loyola-Chicago, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Wyoming, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Chattanooga, North Dakota St, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette, San Francisco

2 comments:

HenryMuto said...

Kentucky no longer has a realistic shot to get a 1 seed. They had to win over Kansas to have almost any shot to get a #1 seed. They have just 1 big win vs North Carolina and only a few other wins vs At large quality teams. I am a Kentucky fan but it is clear they will not be getting a #1 seed. They probably need to nearly win out just to get a #2 seed.

nuclearbdgr said...

Small data glitch: You list Gonzaga as Pac-12, not WCC.