Sunday, January 22, 2017

W-7 BP68

The big theme yesterday were teams starting to grab control of major conferences. Kentucky and Villanova have been well in control of their conferences for a while (Villanova, in particular, after the unfortunate injury to Maurice Watson). But yesterday, Arizona and Wisconsin both grabbed big wins to firmly become favorites to win their conference regular season titles as well.

The Big 12, being the deepest conference in the country, is still tight at the top, though Kansas always seems to find a way to win that. The ACC is the one league that really is a tossup, with North Carolina, Virginia, Louisville, and Florida State all firmly in the mix. And, of course, Duke is probably the most talented team in the nation if they can ever get their full roster together (which is the reason I still have them picked as the projected ACC tournament champ below).

The bubble also saw quite a bit of churn this week, with three teams moving into the Field of 68: Marquette, Utah, and Wake Forest. They took the places of the three teams that dropped out: Houston, Texas Tech, and VCU.

We are now in the Full Bubble, and 5 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Canisius, Green Bay, Oregon St, Tennessee St, and William & Mary. That leaves just 77 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. North Carolina

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Baylor
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

3. Virginia
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Louisville
3. West Virginia

4. Purdue
4. UCLA
4. Florida State
4. Oregon

5. Butler
5. CINCINNATI (AAC)
5. Notre Dame
5. Xavier

6. Saint Mary's
6. Florida
6. SMU
6. Creighton

7. Iowa State
7. South Carolina
7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Indiana

8. Kansas State
8. Maryland
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
8. TCU

9. Virginia Tech
9. Michigan State
9. Clemson
9. Northwestern

10. Miami-Florida
10. Michigan
10. Minnesota
10. Wake Forest

11. Arkansas
11. Marquette
11. Utah
11. USC

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Rhode Island
12. California
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. OAKLAND (HORIZON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. LIU (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, VCU, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Illinois St, Georgia

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
UCF, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Illinois, Ohio St, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Providence, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Oklahoma, Charleston, Valparaiso, Boise St, San Diego St, Arizona St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Boston College, Davidson, George Mason, George Washington, UMass, Richmond, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers, Texas, Northeastern, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Harvard, Iona, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Loyola-Chicago, Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Missouri, North Dakota St, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette, San Francisco

8 comments:

HenryMuto said...

I find it interesting you have Kentucky as the #1 overall which would mean they would probably need to go 31-3 at worst to get that #1 overall seed with a win over Kansas at worst 17-1 record in the SEC and an SEC Championship. Villanova I would think would be likely #1 overall unless they lose a couple games. Kentucky with Fox now injured if he can't make it back for the Kansas game would put Kentucky in big trouble. Kentucky is likely going to have a tough game vs Kansas even with him. That game is going to be huge.

Another thing I found interesting is that you have Wichita State on the 8 line. I would say as of today if they did not win their conf tournament they would be out. Even if they won all their remaining games except the MVC Championship they would be on the bubble and may not make it. Right now they have 0 top 50 RPI wins and no good wins. I don't see them getting an 8 seed even if they won out. I don't think they make it this year without the auto bid unless they win out until the finals and even then its close.

Jeff said...

Having Kentucky at the top of the bracket is not me saying that I think they'll be the #1 overall seed. I have them there because I think they're the most certain team to earn a 1 seed. They have the SEC regular season title almost totally locked up and they'll be heavy favorites to win the SEC tournament, which means that they're heavy favorites for a 1 seed. Villanova has a far greater chance of being tripped up in their own league.

If Villanova wins the Big East regular season and tournament titles then, I agree, they'll likely earn the #1 overall seed over Kentucky.

Jacob Schiros said...

I find it completely awful you have given FSU zero respect. They have made it through their toughest stretch of schedule with an amazing 5-1 record vs ranked teams. They have @Duke and @ ND left but unless an injury bug hits it seems like they should be favored in both games. You seem to continue to rank FSU lowest of every site and they should project at the least a 3 seed and at best a 1 seed.
They should likely lose projection wise 3 games at worst down stretch so to finish at 26-5 or 27-4 would definitely give them a 2-3 seed. Duke is a ticking time bomb waiting to implode and if they were to return players they have dug a deep enough grave to finish 4th best in ACC.

Jeff said...

Florida State will lose 3 games "at worst"? Both Sagarin and Pomeroy project 4 more regular season losses for them.

I actually am planning on putting up a blog post in a couple of days on why Florida State's remaining schedule is unfortunate for their seed hopes.

Jacob Schiros said...

So they go 5-1 against ranked teams and lose 4 more games. I assume outside of Duke and ND, to teams outside the top 50? I can see them dropping a few more, but it is absurd to ignore the talent that they have and what they have done. They have assembled top 5 classes the last two years and have exceeded expectations. It would be very easy to assume this team would drop 4-5 more games, but to who!? They toughest two left they both beat. They destroyed Duke and ND kept it close because they shot 15 3's. To replicate the performances they had against FSU would still not be good enough and they both did above expectations in losing. The only way FSU loses 4 or more down the stretch would be due to injuries and it is crazy to project such.
There is a 26% chance that they lose 4 but also a 25.67% chance they lose 3. at 26-5/26-6 would still leave them at a 3 seed or higher. Be real here and give this team respect and the benefit that maybe the statisticians are not getting it right.
I personally see this team going 27-4/26-5 and a deep run into ACCT putting them around 29/28 wins on the season. It is ridiculous to ignore how a team is playing 12 deep and smoking the blue bloods of the ACC and they get no respect but if UNC or Duke was doing what they have done they would be projected to finish with 3 losses and top 4

Jeff said...

By "smoking" the ACC, you mean outscoring the league by 0.08 PPP, which is 4th best so far? UNC, Virginia, and Louisville are all outscoring opponents by more.

Jacob Schiros said...

FSU is also holding those same teams UVA and Louisville under 1 PPP while many
teams have failed to do so.

teds peterson said...

ND is also clearly in the mix in the ACC, as well. I'm not sure how many times they have to earn a double-bye or make a deep tournament run before people stop overlooking them as a serious annual contender in the conference. Their offensive efficiency ratings are just as strong as they've been in recent years, and their defense appears to be better than it's been lately, too. We'll see how they do with UVa tonight -- Brey has historically struggled against Bennett -- but if they win, they're going to establish a 2+ game lead on the rest of the pack in the loss column along with FSU and UNC. And their remaining schedule is not overly bearish compared to others.

Btw, love what you do here with the blog, Jeff. Thanks for all the work you've put in.