Sunday, February 12, 2017

W-4 BP68

We're only four weeks from Selection Sunday, and some teams have already played their final home game of the season. It all goes by so fast, doesn't it?

We had our first mid-season "official" bracket yesterday, and though they just listed teams on the Top 4 seed lines I fear that this will grow out over time. The media has already created the pointless "Record vs Top 16 teams" narrative, and anything that gives more television time to college administrators as well as arguing points for media analysts is going to grow.

Regardless, it's important for people to understand that my bracket looks different from the mock bracket because it is a projection. Those two Big 12 teams listed as 1 seeds yesterday? They will have to play once and perhaps twice more, and both are going to pick up more losses, and so in the end I expect only the Big 12 champion to earn a 1 seed.

The real movement this week was around the bubble, which got tougher and tighter. Only Syracuse moved in (replacing Clemson), but a whole lot of the chaff at the bottom were eliminated. In all, 14 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Boston College, Charleston, Chattanooga, Davidson, DePaul, Fresno St, Georgia Southern, Iona, LSU, St. Joseph's, San Diego St, San Francisco, Washington, and Wyoming. That leaves just 46 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

The only other change to the Field of 68 this week is North Dakota State replacing Fort Wayne as projected Summit League auto-bid winner.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)

2. North Carolina
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)

3. Louisville
3. Baylor
3. Florida
3. Purdue

4. Duke
4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. West Virginia
4. Oregon

5. UCLA
5. Florida State
5. South Carolina
5. SMU

6. Xavier
6. Butler
6. Notre Dame
6. Maryland

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Creighton
7. Saint Mary's
7. Oklahoma State

8. Iowa State
8. Minnesota
8. Kansas State
8. VCU

9. Northwestern
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Miami FL
9. California

10. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
10. TCU
10. USC

11. Indiana
11. Virginia Tech
11. Marquette
11. Utah
11. Syracuse
11. Rhode Island

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH DAKOTA ST (SUMMIT)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Clemson, Michigan, Illinois St, Arkansas, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Seton Hall, Ohio St, Georgia

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Providence, Illinois, Iowa, Penn St, Texas Tech, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, UConn, Temple, Tulsa, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, Nebraska, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado St, New Mexico, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington St, Mississippi St, Arkansas St, BYU

11 comments:

HenryMuto said...

You have Wisconsin getting a 2 even though they were not even in the top 16 with only 4 weeks left I find it going to be very hard for Wisconsin to get to the 2 line. They would basically need to nearly win out. They have no big wins (Minnesota ?) and no ability to get any in the regular season since the Big 10 has no top 16 teams. The best they can do is win the Big 10 tourney beating Purdue on the way. I think 4 seed might actually be their max and 3 seed if they win out. I don't see them getting a 2 seed.

Kentucky is also going to have a hard time getting a 2 seed but the committee put them at the last 3 seed so it is possible but they may need to win out and win the SEC tournament something that is possible but still a lot to ask. I think 3 seed might be Kentucky's max unless they win out.

Jeff said...

By a quirk of schedule, Wisconsin only has 2 RPI Top 50 wins right now. By RPIForecast they are projected to finish the regular season with 6, and will likely pick up another one in the Big Ten tournament. If they go 15-3 in the Big Ten and sweep the conference titles, I find it hard to believe that they won't earn a 2 seed.

Anonymous said...

FSU has 8 wins vs RPI top 40 whole UF has just 1, AND FSU has the head to head win, but yet you put UF two full seeds higher? Okay..

Jeff said...

RPI Top 40 is not a stat that anybody will be using on Selection Sunday. Wins vs RPI Top 50 is a stat that will be used, but the gap between Florida St and Florida there will be much smaller, and Florida will likely have a better RPI, W-L, Conference W-L, and several other important statistics.

-Jeff

Anonymous said...

Of course UF will have a better conference W-L, they play in the 6th rated conference. FSU plays in the #1 rated conference. And head to head should matter too, no?

And again, you have UF TWO full seeds higher. That is absolutely absurd considering the two resumes.

Jacob Schiros said...

I understand your reasoning from reading your article on FSU. But again you go to absurd levels of placing them at 5. THEY WERE A 2 SATURDAY! You should be smarter to place them at a 3 or 4 to at least hit a median here. Absurd

Anonymous said...

@ Jacob Schiros

You have your opinion and Jeff has his. At least he puts out there for public scrutiny. Why don't you do the same? Afraid that someone like you will come along and call you absurd?

HenryMuto said...

Time to get rid of Rhode Island for good. They are not making the tournament without the auto bid.

HenryMuto said...

Time to get rid of Indiana as well they are not making the tournament without winning at least 4 out of their last 5 games and they play 4 road games.

HenryMuto said...

Why is Utah in your field even if they win out they have no chance for at large bid unless they make the Pac 12 finals beating 2 of Oregon, UCLA and Arizona on the way.

HenryMuto said...

Too bad we don't have some good mid major profiles with out terrible all the power school bubble teams are if Monmouth would have had last year's profile this year I bet they would get in. The last 4 in right now is truly 4 teams that do not deserve to be in whoever those 4 teams would be at least as of today.