W-4 BP68

We're only four weeks from Selection Sunday, and some teams have already played their final home game of the season. It all goes by so fast, doesn't it?

We had our first mid-season "official" bracket yesterday, and though they just listed teams on the Top 4 seed lines I fear that this will grow out over time. The media has already created the pointless "Record vs Top 16 teams" narrative, and anything that gives more television time to college administrators as well as arguing points for media analysts is going to grow.

Regardless, it's important for people to understand that my bracket looks different from the mock bracket because it is a projection. Those two Big 12 teams listed as 1 seeds yesterday? They will have to play once and perhaps twice more, and both are going to pick up more losses, and so in the end I expect only the Big 12 champion to earn a 1 seed.

The real movement this week was around the bubble, which got tougher and tighter. Only Syracuse moved in (replacing Clemson), but a whole lot of the chaff at the bottom were eliminated. In all, 14 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Boston College, Charleston, Chattanooga, Davidson, DePaul, Fresno St, Georgia Southern, Iona, LSU, St. Joseph's, San Diego St, San Francisco, Washington, and Wyoming. That leaves just 46 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

The only other change to the Field of 68 this week is North Dakota State replacing Fort Wayne as projected Summit League auto-bid winner.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)

2. North Carolina
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)

3. Louisville
3. Baylor
3. Florida
3. Purdue

4. Duke
4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. West Virginia
4. Oregon

5. UCLA
5. Florida State
5. South Carolina
5. SMU

6. Xavier
6. Butler
6. Notre Dame
6. Maryland

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Creighton
7. Saint Mary's
7. Oklahoma State

8. Iowa State
8. Minnesota
8. Kansas State
8. VCU

9. Northwestern
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Miami FL
9. California

10. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
10. TCU
10. USC

11. Indiana
11. Virginia Tech
11. Marquette
11. Utah
11. Syracuse
11. Rhode Island

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH DAKOTA ST (SUMMIT)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Clemson, Michigan, Illinois St, Arkansas, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Seton Hall, Ohio St, Georgia

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Providence, Illinois, Iowa, Penn St, Texas Tech, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, UConn, Temple, Tulsa, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, Nebraska, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado St, New Mexico, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington St, Mississippi St, Arkansas St, BYU