Saturday, March 11, 2017

D-1 BP68

Down to the final 36 hours of Championship Week, the bubble is coming very clearly into view. At this point, realistically, there are 7 teams fighting for 5 spots. For now I have slid Kansas State into the bracket and Illinois State out, but I wouldn't totally count Illinois State out yet. The real concern for them is further bid stealing, with the Atlantic Ten looming as a possibility there.

With a number of 1 seeds going down in their conference tournaments, the 1 seed line is opening up. I feel increasingly confident that Kentucky will earn a 1 seed if they win the SEC tournament, sliding 7-loss North Carolina down to the 2 seed line. Oregon will get some 1 seed hype if they win the Pac-12 tournament, though in my opinion the Pac-12 resumes across the board are being overrated by the media. To me, Gonzaga really should stay on the 1 line.

Five more teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Wednesday: Boise State, Colorado, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Utah. That leaves 12 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Kansas
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)

2. North Carolina
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Louisville
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

3. Baylor
3. Oregon
3. UCLA
3. WEST VIRGINIA (BIG 12)

4. Florida State
4. Florida
4. Butler
4. Notre Dame

5. Purdue
5. Virginia
5. CINCINNATI (AAC)
5. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)

6. Minnesota
6. SMU
6. Iowa State
6. Creighton

7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Maryland
7. Arkansas
7. Michigan

8. Saint Mary's
8. Oklahoma State
8. Michigan State
8. South Carolina

9. Northwestern
9. Vanderbilt
9. Virginia Tech
9. Xavier

10. Miami FL
10. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
10. Dayton
10. Seton Hall

11. Wake Forest
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
11. Rhode Island
11. USC
11. Providence

12. Kansas State
12. Marquette
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)

14. AKRON (MAC)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD (WAC)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON)
15. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

16. JACKSONVILLE STATE (OVC)
16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. NORTH DAKOTA (BIG SKY)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Illinois State, California

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Syracuse

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Illinois, Iowa, Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, Houston, Indiana, TCU, Alabama, BYU

5 comments:

HenryMuto said...

I am a Kentucky fan and the entire last couple weeks there have been massive debated on if Kentucky should get #1 seed if they win out or not with the Kentucky fans on the message board. When North Carolina lost to Duke these have been coming fast and furious some think Kentucky should get it if they win the SEC tournament and others just don't see the committee dropping North Carolina. You are one of the few that has Kentucky as a #1 seed. I hope your right.

HenryMuto said...

Lots of push to get Duke to a #1 seed if they win tonight which surprises me they would been a 4 seed at the start of the ACC tournament.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-oregon-jumps-to-a-no-1-seed-and-duke-could-too-if-it-beats-notre-dame/

HenryMuto said...

Committee says 6 teams in play for 4 #1 seeds. Nova, Kansas, Gonzaga and ?

Jeff said...

I haven't heard that report, but I also am considering 6 teams for 1 seeds. Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

HenryMuto said...

Villanova and Kansas have to be locks. What about Arizona ? I think they should be a 2 seed but would the committee push them up to a 1 and throw Gonzaga down to a 2 ?

Kentucky I think sadly falls 1 win short of a #1 seed they needed to have beaten Kansas or Louisville.

North Carolina vs Duke is interesting. So you have 14-4 NC and 11-7 Duke in conference play and Duke sporting that bad NC State home loss but they win the ACC tournament and beat NC 2 out of 3.

Kentucky went 10-0 since Feb 11th brackets came out when they were 12th on the S-Curve.
Duke went 8-3 since Feb 11th and was 16th on S-Curve.

Crazy to think Duke passed Kentucky but that very well might be the case.

I have no idea who the 4th #1 is most felt it was North Carolina until those comments came out from the committee