Sunday, March 12, 2017

FINAL BP68

The most controversial pick in my bracket is going to be UT-Arlington in over Kansas State. I've detailed just why Syracuse should not be in this bracket, but I think that UT-Arlington will be rewarded for a very difficult non-conference strength of schedule. Illinois State is the "mid-major resume" that many are focusing on, but the fact is that UT-Arlington played a significantly tougher non-conference schedule and has the better premier win (at Saint Mary's). The bad losses, historically, just don't matter much. There's a history of the Selection Committee making a statement about non-conference strength of schedules, and if they do this season then they'll reward UT-Arlington (non-conference RPI SOS of 38) and punish Kansas State (non-conference RPI SOS of 228).

Other than the bubble, the public discussion always focuses on the 1 seeds. To me, it's between Kentucky and Duke. I understand that North Carolina won the ACC regular season title while Duke was 5th, but the fact is that the ACC schedule is very unbalanced (and North Carolina had a much softer schedule than Duke). Duke/Kentucky is a 50/50 pick, and I went with the better wins and better league with Duke. If it's Kentucky, I won't complain.

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. Kansas
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. North Carolina
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Baylor

3. Oregon
3. Louisville
3. UCLA
3. Florida State

4. Butler
4. West Virginia
4. Notre Dame
4. Florida

5. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
5. Virginia
5. SMU (AAC)
5. Purdue

6. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN)
6. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota
6. Cincinnati

7. Maryland
7. Creighton
7. Saint Mary's
7. Arkansas

8. Vanderbilt
8. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma State
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

9. South Carolina
9. Northwestern
9. Virginia Tech
9. RHODE ISLAND (ATLANTIC TEN)

10. Dayton
10. VCU
10. Miami FL
10. Xavier

11. Wake Forest
11. Seton Hall
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
11. USC
11. Providence

12. Marquette
12. UT-Arlington
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)

14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON)

15. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
15. KENT STATE (MAC)
15. TROY (SUN BELT)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

16. NORTH DAKOTA (BIG SKY)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)
16. JACKSONVILLE STATE (OVC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. UC-DAVIS (BIG WEST)

If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams:
Syracuse, Kansas State, Illinois State, California

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid but probably shouldn't:
Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, TCU, Alabama, Georgia, BYU

4 comments:

David Mann said...

Bold move on UT-Arlington. I appreciate the willingness to go against the grain.

My crazy at-large pick is Iowa...no idea why, I just think they will be this year's Tulsa.

HenryMuto said...

I hate the NCAA committee for spewing us that crap about the teams vying for #1 seeds I had UNC in there all the way until that crap. I always thought Duke was not only not a #1 seed but wasn't even ahead of Kentucky on S-Curve but I moved Duke over them and UNC because of the dumb committee talk last night which was all BS since UNC was 3rd overall and Gonzaga was 4th, Kentucky 5th, Duke 7th on the overall S-Curve.

I should have posted my picks here but I did on several other sites. I actually got all 68 correct this year for only 2nd time since I been tracking my picks since I started doing this in 2003. I got 65 teams within 1 seed and 43 teams correct. I had the 4 first 4 exactly correct. A couple of spots I debated and switched at the last second or I would have had 47 correct. I had SMU a 6 and stupidly thought winning their conf tournament would move them to a 5 but nope they stayed a 6 with Cincy and I had Minnesota as the 5 and moved them down for SMU. Then I had Kent State as a 14 and moved then down at the last second to a 15 and moved up Northern Kentucky to a 14 based on huge difference in RPI.

I end up with 355 pts (would have had 367 if I had not swapped out UNC/Duke, SMU/Minn, Kent/North Kentucky at the last second)

1 Villanova
1 Kansas
1 Gonzaga
1 Duke
2 North Carolina
2 Kentucky
2 Arizona
2 Louisville
3 Oregon
3 Baylor
3 UCLA
3 Florida State
4 Notre Dame
4 Butler
4 West Virginia
4 Florida
5 Purdue
5 Iowa State
5 Virginia
5 SMU
6 Minnesota
6 Cincinnati
6 Wisconsin
6 Creighton
7 Michigan
7 Maryland
7 Saint Mary's
7 Arkansas
8 Virginia Tech
8 Miami FL
8 Northwestern
8 Seton Hall
9 South Carolina
9 Oklahoma State
9 Dayton
9 Wichita State
10 Marquette
10 VCU
10 Michigan State
10 Vanderbilt
11 Xavier
11 Middle Tennessee
11 Providence (First Four)
11 Wake Forset (First Four)
11 Kansas State (First Four)
11 USC (First Four)
12 Rhode Island
12 NC Wilmington
12 Nevada
12 Vermont
13 Princeton
13 East Tennessee State
13 Bucknell
13 Winthrop
14 New Mexico State
14 Florida Gulf Coast
14 Iona
14 Northern Kentucky
15 Kent State
15 Texas Southern
15 North Dakota
15 Troy
16 Jacksonville State
16 South Dakota State
16 Mount Saint Mary's
16 New Orleans
16 UC Davis
16 NC Central

First 4 out

Illinois St
Syracuse
Iowa
California

HenryMuto said...

I even got all first 4 out correct I just found out.

The 2017 NIT bracket and tip times for the first round have been set. Syracuse, California, Illinois State and Iowa earned top seed for the tournament as the first four out of the NCAA Tournament.

Anonymous said...

@ HenryMuto

Well, I would give you a pat on the back, but I think you have done enough of that yourself.