Sunday, January 29, 2017

W-6 BP68

Having the Big 12/SEC Challenge in the middle of the season like this is an unquestioned good. I'm happy just for the Kansas/Kentucky game, but the quality non-conference opponents gave a chance for several bubble teams to improve their situations. It helped provide clarity, and also helped Villanova move back to the #1 overall seed in my projected bracket.

The biggest change to the top half of the bracket is Duke dropping precipitously, as the Blue Devils defense has really fallen apart, even with Saturday's comeback win over Wake Forest. Near the bottom of the bracket two at-large spots changed, as VCU and Oklahoma State moved in to replace Rhode Island and TCU.

Three projected auto-bids from one-bid leagues changed this week as well. Valparaiso replaces Oakland as the Horizon favorite, UNC-Asheville replaces Winthrop as the Big South favorite, and Mount St. Mary's replaces LIU as the NEC favorite.

In addition, 7 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Harvard, Louisiana Tech, UMass, Missouri, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, and Toledo. That leaves just 69 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)

2. North Carolina
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. GONZAGA (PAC-12)(WCC)

3. Baylor
3. Louisville
3. West Virginia
3. Purdue

4. Duke
4. UCLA
4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. Florida

5. Oregon
5. Florida State
5. Saint Mary's
5. SMU

6. Butler
6. Notre Dame
6. South Carolina
6. Xavier

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Creighton
7. Maryland
7. Iowa State

8. Indiana
8. Kansas State
8. Northwestern
8. Virginia Tech

9. Miami-Florida
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Michigan
9. Clemson

10. Marquette
10. Minnesota
10. Utah
10. Wake Forest

11. USC
11. Arkansas
11. Oklahoma State
11. VCU
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)

12. Michigan State
12. California
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Rhode Island, TCU, Texas Tech, Illinois St, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Syracuse, Seton Hall, Illinois, Ohio St, Georgia, Texas A&M

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
UCF, Memphis, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Providence, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Boston College, Davidson, George Mason, George Washington, Richmond, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Charleston, Northeastern, Marshall, Iona, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Loyola-Chicago, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Wyoming, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Chattanooga, North Dakota St, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette, San Francisco

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Hard Schedules, Easy Schedules, And Florida State


What does it mean to say that a team has a hard or easy remaining schedule? In the simplest sense, we can measure how difficult the average remaining opponent is. But we can ask a different question: What makes a schedule harder or easier to deal with?

Oh, and why am I only projecting a 4 seed for Florida State when they're 18-2 with 9 RPI Top 50 wins and the BracketMatrix has them as the ACC favorite and a 2 seed?

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The fact is that on Selection Sunday teams are judged on their resumes, but not in a purely objective way. There are biases driven because of the power of the RPI, and due to the fact that it is hard to take home/road into proper account. I've written many times about how the RPI process can be manipulated, with the most thorough piece being this one.

In short, you are rewarded for "quality wins", meaning RPI Top 50 wins, with special bonuses for wins over ranked teams, and with a win over a Top 10 team being a jewel in your crown. Meanwhile, you are punished for "bad losses", with a sliding scale from non-NCAA Tournament teams, RPI 51+, RPI 101+, et cetera.

The problem with the system is that by not taking home/road into account, home games are massively overvalued. Right now, Maryland sits 49th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. And so despite being ranked in the human polls, a home game vs Maryland is equivalent in the Sagarin ratings to a road game vs 10-8 Lehigh, who currently sit 117th. Yet a win vs Maryland is a "quality win" and a loss is no sweat, while a win vs Lehigh means nothing at the same time that a loss to Lehigh would be seen as catastrophic.



So, what are you looking for in your schedule? You want a lot of home games versus teams that would make up "quality wins", and you want to avoid road games vs decent teams unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. As I wrote after last year's brackets were announced, this provides a tremendous penalty and hurdle for mid-majors. But this exists on a smaller scale within major conferences as well. When you're in the ACC you want a lot of shots at home against teams like Louisville and North Carolina, and you sure as hell want to avoid road games in places like the Carrier Dome.

So what about that Florida State schedule remaining? On first glance it seems soft by ACC standards - nothing against Louisville, North Carolina, or Virginia. But instead, 7 of 11 remaining games are on the road, mostly against decent-but-not-likely-tourney teams like Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh. At home they play mostly teams with no upside like NC State and Boston College. Their two remaining chances for Top 25 wins, Notre Dame and Duke, both come on the road.

In other words, as good as Florida State is, there is nearly a 50% chance that they fail to pick up another particularly impressive win in the regular season, while the odds are high that they lose two or three games against the likes of Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.



For example, Florida St has beaten Virginia, Duke, Louisville, and Notre Dame in the last two weeks, yet according to Pomeroy they have just a 29% chance of escaping their next three games unscathed against Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and Miami. Under 30 percent despite being favored in every game! If Florida State loses two of three, the media is going to start asking questions about what has "gone wrong" with a team that just beat Virginia and Louisville falling to, say, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Yet nothing will have changed other than a schedule less conducive to perceived success.

In contrast, check out this piece of Virginia's upcoming schedule.


Here we see teams that would be perceived as massive resume-building victories (Louisville and North Carolina) coming to Charlottesville, where the Cavaliers will likely be favored. And they only have one real "bad loss" land mine in NC State. They have already suffered one of those losses earlier this season (at Pittsburgh, on the road and in overtime, on January 4th).

In other words, Virginia's schedule is built for success, with two great chances for big wins, and few chances to pick up bad losses. Florida State's is the opposite, almost certainly set up to lead to a decline in NCAA Tournament seed. Florida State already had their resume-building stretch, beating Louisville, Duke, and Notre Dame at home, but those games are all behind them. Most likely, they're heading for a decline down the stretch.

And that is why, despite Florida State having a stronger resume than Virginia at the moment, I am projecting a stronger seed on Selection Sunday for the Cavaliers than the Seminoles.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

W-7 BP68

The big theme yesterday were teams starting to grab control of major conferences. Kentucky and Villanova have been well in control of their conferences for a while (Villanova, in particular, after the unfortunate injury to Maurice Watson). But yesterday, Arizona and Wisconsin both grabbed big wins to firmly become favorites to win their conference regular season titles as well.

The Big 12, being the deepest conference in the country, is still tight at the top, though Kansas always seems to find a way to win that. The ACC is the one league that really is a tossup, with North Carolina, Virginia, Louisville, and Florida State all firmly in the mix. And, of course, Duke is probably the most talented team in the nation if they can ever get their full roster together (which is the reason I still have them picked as the projected ACC tournament champ below).

The bubble also saw quite a bit of churn this week, with three teams moving into the Field of 68: Marquette, Utah, and Wake Forest. They took the places of the three teams that dropped out: Houston, Texas Tech, and VCU.

We are now in the Full Bubble, and 5 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Canisius, Green Bay, Oregon St, Tennessee St, and William & Mary. That leaves just 77 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. North Carolina

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Baylor
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

3. Virginia
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Louisville
3. West Virginia

4. Purdue
4. UCLA
4. Florida State
4. Oregon

5. Butler
5. CINCINNATI (AAC)
5. Notre Dame
5. Xavier

6. Saint Mary's
6. Florida
6. SMU
6. Creighton

7. Iowa State
7. South Carolina
7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Indiana

8. Kansas State
8. Maryland
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
8. TCU

9. Virginia Tech
9. Michigan State
9. Clemson
9. Northwestern

10. Miami-Florida
10. Michigan
10. Minnesota
10. Wake Forest

11. Arkansas
11. Marquette
11. Utah
11. USC

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Rhode Island
12. California
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. OAKLAND (HORIZON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. LIU (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, VCU, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Illinois St, Georgia

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
UCF, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Illinois, Ohio St, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Providence, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Oklahoma, Charleston, Valparaiso, Boise St, San Diego St, Arizona St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Boston College, Davidson, George Mason, George Washington, UMass, Richmond, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers, Texas, Northeastern, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Harvard, Iona, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Loyola-Chicago, Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Missouri, North Dakota St, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette, San Francisco

Sunday, January 15, 2017

W-8 BP68

There are always a few weeks every season where it's hard to find 68 teams to fill in the bracket with. For whatever reason it's a bad week for bubble teams, and the bubble just seems awfully soft. This is one of those weeks. There is little stability down in the 11-12 seed range, and expect that area of the bracket to continue to churn.

In the end, two projected at-large bids changed this week. Northwestern and VCU came in while Ohio St and Oklahoma St dropped out. There were also two auto-bid changes, as UC-Irvine is the new Big West favorite (replacing Long Beach St) and LIU is the new NEC favorite (replacing Wagner).

This is also the first week of the "Full Bubble", which I start every year on the first bracket on or after January 15th. The Full Bubble is an exercise in mathematically eliminating teams from at-large contention with each bracket. I start with a zillion of teams, and then each bracket will narrow it down until we just have the Selection Sunday bubble. This year, the Full Bubble starts with 82 teams, and by Selection Sunday we'll be down close to 10.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. North Carolina
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. Baylor

3. West Virginia
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
3. Louisville

4. Purdue
4. UCLA
4. Butler
4. Creighton

5. Oregon
5. Florida
5. Xavier
5. CINCINNATI (AAC)

6. Florida State
6. Notre Dame
6. Saint Mary's
6. Iowa State

7. SMU
7. South Carolina
7. Indiana
7. Clemson

8. Virginia Tech
8. USC
8. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
8. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

9. Michigan State
9. TCU
9. Maryland
9. Miami - Florida

10. Kansas State
10. Michigan
10. Houston
10. Minnesota

11. Texas Tech
11. Arkansas
11. California
11. VCU

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Rhode Island
12. Northwestern
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. OAKLAND (HORIZON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. LIU (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Wake Forest, Marquette, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St, Illinois St, Utah

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
UCF, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio St, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, BYU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Temple, Davidson, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Providence, Iowa, Penn St, Oklahoma, Texas, Charleston, Northeastern, Valparaiso, Boise St, San Diego St, Arizona St, Colorado, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Tulsa, Boston College, Georgia Tech, George Mason, George Washington, UMass, Richmond, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Green Bay, Harvard, Canisius, Iona, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Loyola-Chicago, Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, Wyoming, Tennessee St, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Missouri, North Dakota St, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette, San Francisco,

Sunday, January 08, 2017

W-9 BP68

With a full and healthy roster, I don't think there are a lot of questions that Duke has the most talented team in the nation. Of course, they might never be truly healthy and together all season long. Just as the freshmen are starting to get back to full strength, Amile Jefferson went down with an injury yesterday of unknown severity, and Grayson Allen might face yet another suspension for tripping. And Coach K will be out for at least a few more weeks. There is still plenty of time for Duke to get back on track, but at this point I have to drop them as the #1 overall projected seed. The ACC is just too good at the top to do otherwise.

There were three other changes to the Field of 68 this week. California moves in for Texas A&M. Two auto bid projections changed as well. Oakland is the new Horizon League favorite (replacing Valparaiso) and New Orleans is the new Southland favorite (replacing Stephen F Austin).

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. North Carolina
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. Baylor

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
3. West Virginia
3. Louisville

4. Purdue
4. UCLA
4. Butler
4. Creighton

5. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
5. Oregon
5. Florida
5. Xavier

6. Indiana
6. CINCINNATI (AAC)
6. Florida State
6. Iowa State

7. Notre Dame
7. Saint Mary's
7. Clemson
7. SMU

8. South Carolina
8. USC
8. Michigan
8. Virginia Tech

9. Arkansas
9. Minnesota
9. Miami-Florida
9. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

10. Texas Tech
10. Kansas State
10. Maryland
10. Michigan State

11. Rhode Island
11. TCU
11. Houston
11. Ohio State

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Oklahoma State
12. California
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. OAKLAND (HORIZON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, VCU, Marquette, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Texas A&M

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
UCF, Memphis, Syracuse, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Illinois, Nebraska, Illinois St, Colorado, Utah, Georgia, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Temple, Davidson, La Salle, St. Joseph's, Georgetown, Iowa, Penn St, Oklahoma, Texas, Charleston, Valparaiso, Evansville, Boise St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Arizona St, Stanford, Washington, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga

Sunday, January 01, 2017

W-10 BP68

It's New Year's Day and we are just ten weeks out from Selection Sunday. With college football nearing a close, we are very close to college basketball coming to the sporting fore.

In terms of the projected bracket, the biggest change this week is in the Pac-12, where I have made Arizona the favorite, replacing UCLA. My blog piece here talks about why I think UCLA is due to decline, and we've already seen a bit of that, as their shooting has cooled off since I published that. I know that I'm lower on Oregon than most, but that is partially due to being skeptical of their big week. Beating UCLA and USC isn't as impressive as the media thinks it is since both games were at home and both of those teams are (in my opinion) overrated by the polls. To put it in perspective, according to Sagarin and Pomeroy a road game at California (which Arizona won this week) is equivalent in difficulty to a home game against UCLA. Right or wrong, it's clearly a three team race.

There were two changes to the Field of 68 this week. Houston moves in as an at-large team, replacing Seton Hall. And Stephen F Austin moves in as the new Southland favorite, replacing Sam Houston St.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. North Carolina
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. Virginia
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Baylor
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
3. Louisville
3. West Virginia

4. Purdue
4. UCLA
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Indiana

5. Creighton
5. Butler
5. Florida
5. Xavier

6. Florida State
6. Oregon
6. Iowa State
6. CINCINNATI (AAC)

7. Notre Dame
7. Saint Mary's
7. Clemson
7. Michigan

8. Virginia Tech
8. Miami-Florida
8. SMU
8. Texas Tech

9. South Carolina
9. USC
9. Oklahoma State
9. Ohio State

10. Kansas State
10. Arkansas
10. Maryland
10. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

11. TCU
11. Michigan St
11. Texas A&M
11. Minnesota

12. Rhode Island
12. Houston
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)

13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. WAGNER (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, VCU, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Northwestern, California, Colorado

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
UCF, Memphis, Temple, Syracuse, Davidson, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, Illinois, Iowa, Oklahoma, San Diego St, Utah, Georgia, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
UConn, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Penn St, Rutgers, Texas, Charleston, Evansville, Illinois St, Boise St, New Mexico, Arizona St, Stanford, Washington, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga