Sunday, February 26, 2017

W-2 BP68

It's that time of year again! The first conference tournament games kick off tomorrow.

Probably the biggest bracket discussion yesterday was the fate of Gonzaga and the top Pac-12 teams. Gonzaga dominated the WCC in such a way that I don't think a single loss to BYU suddenly drops them from the 1 seed line. There is simply not an obvious replacement, be it a second ACC team or a Pac-12 team. The biggest complication for them is probably if Louisville beats North Carolina in the ACC title game.

As for the top Pac-12 teams, the media seems oddly confused by why the bracketologists are "down" on UCLA, putting them more in the 3 or 4 seed range than the 1 seed range. The fact that their offense is really good or that "they can beat anybody" is not really an argument for seeding, since their defense is a mess and teams aren't judged by how good they look anyway. The problem for UCLA is that their strength of schedule is so poor. Even with yesterday's huge victory, they still have only 5 RPI Top 50 wins and 11 RPI Top 100 wins. That's basically equivalent to Gonzaga (5 and 10, respectively), and Gonzaga's schedule has been softer than usual this season as well. In comparison, a team like Baylor, despite going just 10-6 in Big 12 play thus far, has 8 RPI Top 50 wins and 14 RPI Top 100 wins. And that is why Baylor is in a better position than UCLA to earn a 2 seed.

Anyway, there was just one at-large change this week, with Rhode Island pulling themselves back in and Kansas State dropping out. There were also two changed auto-bid projections, with Cal State Bakersfield replacing New Mexico St as WAC champion, and Eastern Washington replacing Weber State as Big Sky favorite.

In addition 5 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Arizona St, UConn, Memphis, Mississippi St, and New Mexico. That leaves just 31 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)

2. Louisville
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. Baylor
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

3. Florida
3. Oregon
3. Duke
3. UCLA

4. Florida State
4. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
4. Purdue
4. Butler

5. Virginia
5. CINCINNATI (AAC)
5. West Virginia
5. SMU

6. Minnesota
6. Notre Dame
6. Iowa State
6. Oklahoma State

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. South Carolina
7. Saint Mary's
7. Creighton

8. Maryland
8. Xavier
8. VCU
8. Miami FL

9. Michigan
9. Arkansas
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Michigan State

10. Virginia Tech
10. Northwestern
10. Illinois State
10. USC

11. Syracuse
11. Wake Forest
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
11. Marquette
11. Rhode Island

12. California
12. TCU
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
14. BELMONT (OVC)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD (WAC)
15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NORTH DAKOTA ST (SUMMIT)

16. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Providence, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Indiana, Kansas State, Georgia, Tennessee

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Illinois, Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Georgetown, St. John's, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio St, Penn St, Texas Tech, Boise St, Colorado St, Colorado, Stanford, Auburn, Texas A&M

Sunday, February 19, 2017

W-3 BP68

I have to admit that I just haven't had the time to watch as much hoops this week as I normally like to due to work commitments. To that end, I am pre-emptively apologizing for whatever I'm super wrong on this week (I'll just go out on a limb and assume that it's Maryland).

Anyway, one thing that certainly did happen this week is the strengthening for the bubble. I know that we're supposed to say how the bubble is so "weak" every season, but right now it's actually a bit atypically strong. And that led to quite a bit of at-large churn this week. In all, Arkansas, Illinois St, and Michigan moved into to the Field of 68, while Indiana, Rhode Island, and Utah dropped out.

One other change was the top of the ACC, where North Carolina's home game against Louisville on Wednesday makes them the favorites to take the ACC regular season title (and thus the favorites to take the ACC tournament title). As such, they slide up to a projected 1 seed.

In all, 10 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Arkansas St, La Salle, North Carolina St, Oklahoma, Richmond, Rutgers, Temple, Texas, Tulsa, and Washington St. That leaves just 36 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. Louisville
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. Virginia

3. Baylor
3. Florida
3. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
3. Purdue

4. Duke
4. Oregon
4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. UCLA

5. West Virginia
5. Florida State
5. SMU
5. Butler

6. Maryland
6. Notre Dame
6. Oklahoma State
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)

7. Saint Mary's
7. Iowa State
7. Minnesota
7. South Carolina

8. Creighton
8. Northwestern
8. VCU
8. Xavier

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Michigan State
9. Virginia Tech
9. Miami FL

10. USC
10. Michigan
10. Kansas State
10. California

11. Marquette
11. Arkansas
11. TCU
11. Wake Forest
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)

12. Illinois State
12. Syracuse
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH DAKOTA ST (SUMMIT)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Rhode Island, Indiana, Utah, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Clemson, Seton Hall, Alabama, Georgia

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Providence, Illinois, Ohio St, Penn St, Texas Tech, Boise St, Stanford, Auburn, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, UConn, Memphis, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado St, New Mexico, Arizona St, Colorado, Mississippi St, BYU

Sunday, February 12, 2017

W-4 BP68

We're only four weeks from Selection Sunday, and some teams have already played their final home game of the season. It all goes by so fast, doesn't it?

We had our first mid-season "official" bracket yesterday, and though they just listed teams on the Top 4 seed lines I fear that this will grow out over time. The media has already created the pointless "Record vs Top 16 teams" narrative, and anything that gives more television time to college administrators as well as arguing points for media analysts is going to grow.

Regardless, it's important for people to understand that my bracket looks different from the mock bracket because it is a projection. Those two Big 12 teams listed as 1 seeds yesterday? They will have to play once and perhaps twice more, and both are going to pick up more losses, and so in the end I expect only the Big 12 champion to earn a 1 seed.

The real movement this week was around the bubble, which got tougher and tighter. Only Syracuse moved in (replacing Clemson), but a whole lot of the chaff at the bottom were eliminated. In all, 14 teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Boston College, Charleston, Chattanooga, Davidson, DePaul, Fresno St, Georgia Southern, Iona, LSU, St. Joseph's, San Diego St, San Francisco, Washington, and Wyoming. That leaves just 46 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

The only other change to the Field of 68 this week is North Dakota State replacing Fort Wayne as projected Summit League auto-bid winner.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. GONZAGA (WCC)

2. North Carolina
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)

3. Louisville
3. Baylor
3. Florida
3. Purdue

4. Duke
4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. West Virginia
4. Oregon

5. UCLA
5. Florida State
5. South Carolina
5. SMU

6. Xavier
6. Butler
6. Notre Dame
6. Maryland

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Creighton
7. Saint Mary's
7. Oklahoma State

8. Iowa State
8. Minnesota
8. Kansas State
8. VCU

9. Northwestern
9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. Miami FL
9. California

10. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
10. TCU
10. USC

11. Indiana
11. Virginia Tech
11. Marquette
11. Utah
11. Syracuse
11. Rhode Island

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

14. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
15. NORTH DAKOTA ST (SUMMIT)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Clemson, Michigan, Illinois St, Arkansas, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Seton Hall, Ohio St, Georgia

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Providence, Illinois, Iowa, Penn St, Texas Tech, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UCF, UConn, Temple, Tulsa, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, Nebraska, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado St, New Mexico, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington St, Mississippi St, Arkansas St, BYU

Sunday, February 05, 2017

W-5 BP68

It was a tough week for the bubble, and so programs that picked up big wins were able to slide well up the bracket, most notably Oklahoma State. Teams like Minnesota and Kansas State, which seem like dicey bubble teams, are actually in relatively safely at the moment, though obviously they're just a bad loss or two away from trouble again.

In all, three teams moved into the bracket this week: Rhode Island, TCU, and Bucknell. Bucknell is the new Patriot League favorite, replacing Lehigh. The two at-large teams replaced are Arkansas and Michigan, who both fell out of the bracket after brutal losses.

As we're only five weeks from Selection Sunday, the unrealistic bubble teams are sliding off of the Full Bubble and we're starting to get real clarity on which teams will be seriously competing for the final few at-large bids. 9 more teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Eastern Michigan, George Mason, George Washington, Louisiana-Lafayette, Loyola-Chicago, Marshall, North Dakota State, Northeastern, and Ohio. That leaves just 60 teams not in the projected bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid. Close to 50 more teams will be eliminated over the next five weeks.

Capitalized teams are projected automatic bid winners. Remember that this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now:

1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. VIRGINIA (ACC)
1. North Carolina

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
2. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)

3. Louisville
3. Baylor
3. Purdue
3. Florida

4. CINCINNATI (AAC)
4. West Virginia
4. Duke
4. Oregon

5. UCLA
5. Florida State
5. Saint Mary's
5. SMU

6. South Carolina
6. Xavier
6. Butler
6. Maryland

7. DAYTON (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Notre Dame
7. Creighton
7. Iowa State

8. Northwestern
8. Kansas State
8. Minnesota
8. Oklahoma State

9. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
9. VCU
9. Michigan State
9. Wake Forest

10. Indiana
10. Virginia Tech
10. Clemson
10. Marquette

11. Miami-Florida
11. California
11. TCU
11. USC
11. Utah
11. Rhode Island

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CONFERENCE USA)
12. NEVADA (MOUNTAIN WEST)
12. UNC-WILMINGTON (COLONIAL)
12. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SUN BELT)

13. EAST TENNESSEE ST (SOCON)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. MONMOUTH (MAAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. FORT WAYNE (SUMMIT)
14. PRINCETON (IVY LEAGUE)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. BELMONT (OVC)
15. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)

16. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. MOUNT ST MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Houston, Syracuse, Michigan, Illinois St, Arkansas, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Seton Hall, Ohio St, Texas Tech, Georgia

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
UCF, Memphis, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Georgetown, Providence, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Boise St, Stanford, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, BYU

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Davidson, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, DePaul, St. John's, Rutgers,  Oklahoma, Texas, Charleston, Iona, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Wyoming, Arizona St, Colorado, Washington, Washington St, LSU, Chattanooga, Arkansas St, Georgia Southern, San Francisco