tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post4509854344836843407..comments2023-09-01T06:51:04.030-04:00Comments on Basketball Predictions: W-4.5 BP65Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-86830816453652517722010-02-13T14:18:49.708-05:002010-02-13T14:18:49.708-05:0020 bucks says he still has UConn in on Monday.20 bucks says he still has UConn in on Monday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-74021622096042564972010-02-12T16:33:49.011-05:002010-02-12T16:33:49.011-05:00I don't have those at hand, but you can use th...I don't have those at hand, but you can use <a href="http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2009/03/how-well-did-computers-predict-field.html" rel="nofollow">this post</a> that I did at the time which has the ten best ELO_CHESS ratings left out, and the ten worse that got in, along with the seeds they received from the Selection Committee.<br /><br />As you will see, all but one team with an ELO_CHESS in the Top 40 got in, and the one exception won the NIT. Of the teams between 41st and 50th, half of them got in and half were left out. And zero teams outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50 got in.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-76590828062680815502010-02-12T16:14:22.315-05:002010-02-12T16:14:22.315-05:00Hi Jeff,
I was wondering if you had a link to las...Hi Jeff,<br /><br />I was wondering if you had a link to last year's college basketball rankings (ones like elo_chess) from the end of the regular season instead of from the end of the tournament.<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-4779007666367044672010-02-12T14:09:20.123-05:002010-02-12T14:09:20.123-05:00I'm guessing he has them at 21-9 (10-6) for th...I'm guessing he has them at 21-9 (10-6) for them to be a 7. Pretty difficult to see that happening.<br /><br />Then again, he did have UNC as a 5 last week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-18310918831299503312010-02-12T13:32:51.650-05:002010-02-12T13:32:51.650-05:00I agree with the previous poster that Vandy as a 7...I agree with the previous poster that Vandy as a 7 is pretty much a joke. How many games do you project them to lose from here that would move them down to a 7 seed?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53075803114505634692010-02-12T13:00:53.892-05:002010-02-12T13:00:53.892-05:00Vandy as a seven is pretty comical as well. Top 1...Vandy as a seven is pretty comical as well. Top 12 projected RPI, #20 Elo that you're in love with, 7-2 in conference, beat Mizzou, swept Tennessee. What a joke!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53653434353304157152010-02-12T12:57:49.429-05:002010-02-12T12:57:49.429-05:00Yet Memphis' is much worse yet they would get ...Yet Memphis' is much worse yet they would get the higher seed? And last I checked, Northeastern, VCU, and William & Mary aren't some scrub teams.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-64504826797328103532010-02-12T12:26:44.713-05:002010-02-12T12:26:44.713-05:00I was using ELO_CHESS to explain why Old Dominion ...I was using ELO_CHESS to explain why Old Dominion would not be higher than a 12, and more likely will be a 13. As I said, Old Dominion has the better resume right now than Memphis, but if we assume that Memphis wins the C-USA tournament then they'll leapfrog Old Dominion. Old Dominion doesn't get to play UTEP, Tulsa and UAB in their conference tournament.<br /><br />That's why I give Memphis the narrow edge.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53919809945349319902010-02-12T12:17:57.669-05:002010-02-12T12:17:57.669-05:00Old Dominion's Elo-Chess is 49 while Memphis&#...Old Dominion's Elo-Chess is 49 while Memphis' is 76!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-72592754429151235412010-02-12T12:13:40.122-05:002010-02-12T12:13:40.122-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-42643530010001178232010-02-12T11:13:52.216-05:002010-02-12T11:13:52.216-05:00I don't know what makes you feel the need to c...I don't know what makes you feel the need to constantly be an angry jerk. I assume you don't talk this way to ordinary people in your life, so don't talk this way here.<br /><br />The point is that the Sagarin ELO_CHESS is a much better objective projector of seed than RPI. So you can't make an argument that I'm wrong because the RPI says I is, particularly when Sagarin agrees with me.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-9028815330631499672010-02-12T11:02:01.211-05:002010-02-12T11:02:01.211-05:00And as one of the 8 that had Arizona in last year ...And as one of the 8 that had Arizona in last year (you didn't), I don't need lessons on who is going to get at-large's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-10611300833288280002010-02-12T10:57:09.425-05:002010-02-12T10:57:09.425-05:00*making the tournament as auto-bids I meant to say...*making the tournament as auto-bids I meant to say.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-22791431934768633562010-02-12T10:56:48.126-05:002010-02-12T10:56:48.126-05:00We're not debating at-large's since you ha...We're not debating at-large's since you have them both projected as making the tournament.<br /><br />Missouri St. had an empty RPI that year. No surprise they were left out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-47716133396741927872010-02-12T10:51:16.908-05:002010-02-12T10:51:16.908-05:00RPI doesn't matter. I encourage you to read t...RPI doesn't matter. I encourage you to read <a href="http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2009/03/how-well-did-computers-predict-field.html" rel="nofollow">this piece</a> that I wrote last year. Memphis has a better ELO_CHESS than Old Dominion already, and that will only improve if they win the C-USA tournament.<br /><br />Missouri State fans could have woken up on Selection Sunday 2006 and said "No chance does a team with a Top 25 RPI not get an at-large bid." And they would have been wrong.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-14212152866230757682010-02-12T09:46:57.001-05:002010-02-12T09:46:57.001-05:00So you think a team with a projected RPI of 30 wit...So you think a team with a projected RPI of 30 with a win @ Georgetown deserves a worse seed than a team with an RPI of 65 with no notable wins. Interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-47576273727837671182010-02-12T02:20:14.587-05:002010-02-12T02:20:14.587-05:00I would Have to say that Radford beats out Coastal...I would Have to say that Radford beats out Coastal Carolina They Play Saturday and Winner will more than likely Win the South. I would then say Radford will once again be another 16 seed that will fall hard just like last years joke against UNC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-56755194477287703422010-02-11T23:29:45.887-05:002010-02-11T23:29:45.887-05:00If they end up 23-8, which is certainly a very pla...If they end up 23-8, which is certainly a very plausible final record, then they'll be right on the bubble. It will come down to how they play in the A-10 tournament, and how strong the bubble is.<br /><br />Richmond was the single last team I left out this bracket. I actually wrote their name in, then deleted it again and put Virginia Tech in. One thing that scared me about Richmond are their computer numbers: neither Sagarin or Pomeroy rates them one of the 50 best teams in the country. And that makes me worry about a potential upset in their next few games. It's a mistake to throw something like a home game against George Washington into the win column before the game is played.<br /><br />Ultimately, that's what led Richmond to be the first team out of this bracket, even though they would be in the field of 65 if the season ended now.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-59988701455920878352010-02-11T23:06:56.894-05:002010-02-11T23:06:56.894-05:00Considering the Spiders are 19-6 currently and wil...Considering the Spiders are 19-6 currently and will likely end up 23-8, 12-4 in the A-10, have wins over Florida, Temple, URI, Missouri, Mississippi State and ODU, a projected RPI of 32, and play in the 6th ranked conference, why are you leaving them out?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-89357263514753815462010-02-11T22:16:03.683-05:002010-02-11T22:16:03.683-05:00The teams in capital letters are the projection to...The teams in capital letters are the projection tournament champions. But winning the Colonial is not nearly as impressive as winning Conference USA.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-51434957854694582772010-02-11T18:23:13.696-05:002010-02-11T18:23:13.696-05:00So then you aren't projecting Old Dominion to ...So then you aren't projecting Old Dominion to win the CAA title?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-13153317663494327102010-02-11T16:28:58.227-05:002010-02-11T16:28:58.227-05:00I'm giving Memphis a 12 under the assumption t...I'm giving Memphis a 12 under the assumption that they win the C-USA tournament title, and there's no question that Conference USA is much better than the Colonial this year.<br /><br />I agree that Old Dominion has the slightly better resume than Memphis right now, but they'd have to basically win out to end up with a better resume than a Memphis team that wins the C-USA tournament.<br /><br />As I've already said, though, Memphis has at best the third best at-large resume from C-USA. If Memphis doesn't win their conference title, they probably will not get into the Tournament at all.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-81494304523753546082010-02-11T16:14:39.883-05:002010-02-11T16:14:39.883-05:00And yet Memphis, who won't win the CUSA regula...And yet Memphis, who won't win the CUSA regular season, who has a much worse RPI, and a win nowhere close to as good as @ Georgetown gets a 12. Interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-15301282416555782242010-02-11T16:01:30.093-05:002010-02-11T16:01:30.093-05:00I think that 2009 Utah State is a decent compariso...I think that 2009 Utah State is a decent comparison to 2010 Old Dominion, but it seems to me that Utah State's resume was better.<br /><br />Old Dominion does have that big win over Georgetown, but don't forget that the Utah State win over Utah last season was arguably just as impressive. Utah ended up with a 5 seed in the Tournament, which is where Georgetown might end up this year.<br /><br />Last year's WAC is comparable to this year's Colonial, and Utah State dominated last year at 14-2, while Old Dominion is currently sitting in third place at 10-3. Utah State went 29-4 with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100. Old Dominion is 18-7 with a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100, although that number is slightly arbitrary. They're 4-6 against the RPI 1-through-88.<br /><br />Utah State had an easier schedule last season, but they completely ran through it and ended up getting an 11 seed based on sheer numbers.<br /><br />The Selection Committee has a tendency to be biased a bit by won-loss records, and they also care a lot about winning conferences. For Old Dominion to get an 11 seed they have to prove they'd have gotten an at-large bid. If they don't win the regular season title outright, it's hard to see that happening.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-6768775374189373572010-02-11T15:19:36.359-05:002010-02-11T15:19:36.359-05:00Any response to the Old Dominion comment?Any response to the Old Dominion comment?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com