tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post4593834742876238611..comments2023-09-01T06:51:04.030-04:00Comments on Basketball Predictions: Bracket Lesson #3: Tough Vs Easy DrawsJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-43706367360086422582011-03-14T01:21:00.238-04:002011-03-14T01:21:00.238-04:00Thank you for correcting that math. Sorry about t...Thank you for correcting that math. Sorry about that error.<br /><br />And Kentucky as the clear best 4 seed is my personal opinion. They are a very young team that has gotten progressively better throughout the year, while Texas has faded a little bit. I know what the computers say, but in my opinion Kentucky is clearly better.<br /><br />And like you said, has any coach historically had less success in the Tournament with more talent than Rick Barnes?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-56981378172157446902011-03-14T00:27:13.643-04:002011-03-14T00:27:13.643-04:00Also, I don't know if I agree with how...off-h...Also, I don't know if I agree with how...off-handishly you're describing Kentucky as the best 4 seed. Texas is 4th by Pomeroy and Sagarin Predictor, which seems to me to at least warrant a discussion. Even just to say that Barnes will get out-coached would be enough.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-45629940708747460892011-03-14T00:20:20.435-04:002011-03-14T00:20:20.435-04:00I think you added some numbers up wrong or somethi...I think you added some numbers up wrong or something, in your example scenario for taking first round opponents into consideration, since it appears that teams A and B will combine to reach the Sweet 16 110% of the time. I ran the numbers(Correctly, I hope) based on the scenario you described.<br /><br />Second Round Scenarios<br /><br />AvB - 54% of second round games will be this<br /><br />A wins 60% - 32%<br />B wins 40% - 22%<br /><br />BvC - 36% of second round games will be this<br /><br />B wins 100% - 36%<br /><br />AvD - 6% of second round games will be this<br /><br />A wins 100% - 6%<br /><br />4% of the time CvD second round<br /><br /><br />A makes S16 38% of the time<br />B makes S16 58% of the time<br /><br /><br />Might have done that wrong, but yeah.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-55289606352957990582011-03-13T23:52:54.331-04:002011-03-13T23:52:54.331-04:00An 11 seed has made the Final Four twice. We had ...An 11 seed has made the Final Four twice. We had that George Mason run in 2006, and LSU did it 20 years earlier.<br /><br />Only eight times in the 26 years of the modern bracket, however, have seeds worse than a 6 seed made the Final Four. So a team worse than a 6 makes it only once every four years.<br /><br />This should be good year for it, though, with so much parity. There really is very little gap between the 2 and 6 seeds this year.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-40838433960702598602011-03-13T23:20:12.961-04:002011-03-13T23:20:12.961-04:00What are your thoughts on Missouri and possibly be...What are your thoughts on Missouri and possibly beating UConn or do you even see them getting past Cincy? I also have Marquette going far, even possibly beating Syracuse. Finally, what are the statistics of a lower seed going to the final four such as a 10 or even 11 seed?Justinnoreply@blogger.com