tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post7024635980441491409..comments2023-09-01T06:51:04.030-04:00Comments on Basketball Predictions: Complete Midwest Region AnalysisJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-88054709600435739772014-03-19T15:47:45.469-04:002014-03-19T15:47:45.469-04:00That's going to come down to just how much you...That's going to come down to just how much your bracket competition rewards upsets. In general I advise people who pick big upsets to have that team lose in the next round, because you don't want to totally screw up your bracket if the upset you picked doesn't come to pass.<br /><br />But if your bracket competition gives vastly more credit for upsets than for favorites, obviously the actual gap in quality between Michigan and Tennessee/Iowa is pretty small. Michigan would be a very small favorite in Vegas.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-54647017883266739532014-03-19T15:39:11.939-04:002014-03-19T15:39:11.939-04:00What are your thoughts if I have the winner of ten...What are your thoughts if I have the winner of tenn/Iowa beating duke and facing michigan? I needed a high seed in my sweet 16 and am picking them based on them being a seemingly stronger high seed than others..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-78302852958863893602014-03-19T15:03:02.827-04:002014-03-19T15:03:02.827-04:00Van Fleet would be such a better name than VanVlee...Van Fleet would be such a better name than VanVleet, not sure why I thought it was the former. This difference alone my force me to take Louisville over Wichita State.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06495085416586459975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-83878956218007648522014-03-18T18:23:52.169-04:002014-03-18T18:23:52.169-04:00I generally take conference efficiency numbers fro...I generally take conference efficiency numbers from bbstate.com. Those two websites calculate possessions slightly differently, which is why they have slightly different numbers.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-16339103072700773352014-03-18T17:40:31.226-04:002014-03-18T17:40:31.226-04:00Where do you get the B10 conference efficiency num...Where do you get the B10 conference efficiency numbers? You said Michigan was tied with Wisconsin and just above Iowa. According to Kenpom (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B10), Michigan was first in margin with 10.7, Wisconsin's margin was 7.9, and Iowa's was 6.8.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-90808727544792977292014-03-18T14:50:12.916-04:002014-03-18T14:50:12.916-04:00I think the assertion that Wichita State is soft i...I think the assertion that Wichita State is soft is interesting. You point to advanced stats, but they are very comparable (and arguably more balanced) than the other #1 seeds (ken pom, colley matrix). If you're only considering Sagarin, then yes, they are 'soft'. They didn't play crap for a schedule, but what we do know is they've returned 7 of 9 from last years final 4 team, and one of the lost players (PG Armstead 2012/13 stats: fg% = 39%, A/T < 1.7/1) was arguably one of their weakest links. He wasn't nearly as efficient as Van Fleet (2013/14 stats: fg% = 49%, A/T = 3.8/1).<br /><br />I think it's pretty clear that this Wichita State team is better than last years team, and I also think that this Louisville team is about the same or slightly worse than last years team.<br /><br />Louisville won by 4 last year (Wichita State led by 12 in the 2nd half), more Van Fleet and no Armstead makes this potential matchup very intriguing. I don't know if Louisville can force enough turnovers with Van Fleet being the major decision maker for the Shockers. I think there's a good chance that the winner of that game will end up in the Championship game.<br /><br />The potential Louisville/Wichita State match-up and the Michigan State/Iowa State match-up are the most intriguing in the tournament IMO. If Izzo decides to play uptempo with the Cyclones, they might get themselves into trouble.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06495085416586459975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-10118495608006021732014-03-18T14:47:19.944-04:002014-03-18T14:47:19.944-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06495085416586459975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-16582540107067072212014-03-18T14:19:41.079-04:002014-03-18T14:19:41.079-04:00Log5 math is very easy to do yourself. You can goo...Log5 math is very easy to do yourself. You can google the formula. As for how much the Pomeroy ratings will change after each game... that isn't so easy. You probably can't do that yourself. But Ken usually updates his numbers within an hour or so of each game ending.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-25744724983933935392014-03-18T14:08:59.310-04:002014-03-18T14:08:59.310-04:00Question re: log5
Does kenpom recalculate the pro...Question re: log5<br /><br />Does kenpom recalculate the probabilities after the first round (aka play-in) games? Is there a shortcut for doing this? Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-2287709610723839522014-03-18T13:50:39.961-04:002014-03-18T13:50:39.961-04:00Pre-tournament. Post-tournament. Doesn't matte...Pre-tournament. Post-tournament. Doesn't matter. I think Jeff's point is that both Duke and Michigan are business class because their defenses are flying coach. Therefore Louisville should be favored versus either as they would have priority boarding.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-74661120062566331452014-03-18T13:32:11.597-04:002014-03-18T13:32:11.597-04:00I'm basing it on post-tourney stats, because I...I'm basing it on post-tourney stats, because I don't have access to pre-tourney Pomeroy D stats, but there's a pretty big gap back to those three teams. I think the next worst defense since '03 to make a Final Four finished with a Pomeroy defense around 50th.... somewhere around there.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-31960791046741656462014-03-18T13:24:22.236-04:002014-03-18T13:24:22.236-04:00Is the stat about "no defense this bad since ...Is the stat about "no defense this bad since Marquette" calculated based on D ratings going into the tourney or after the tourney is completed. In other words are there teams since Marquette that had D ratings close to Michigan or Duke going into the tourney but by the time they made a final four run the ratings had improved. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-18373223119521070992014-03-18T12:55:55.039-04:002014-03-18T12:55:55.039-04:00Nice "analysis", dude. I read the entire...Nice "analysis", dude. I read the entire post twice and still have no clue which team is guttiest. Fail.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com