tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post9202901948022585855..comments2023-09-01T06:51:04.030-04:00Comments on Basketball Predictions: W-9 BP68Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-22300426086047535052015-01-12T19:41:11.290-05:002015-01-12T19:41:11.290-05:00By the way, I'll give you some context for tha...By the way, I'll give you some context for that latter number. If you go by Ken Pomeroy's numbers after the bracket was released on Selection Sunday 2014 (<a href="http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/2014_ncaa_tournament_log5" rel="nofollow">here</a>), he had 12 teams with a 50% or greater chance of making the second weekend.<br /><br />And of course, that's on Selection Sunday, when we have far more certainty about the makeup of the bracket and how good teams are than we do right now.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-37596472814787241632015-01-12T19:38:08.313-05:002015-01-12T19:38:08.313-05:00If Old Dominion wins 24 games they'll be a sho...If Old Dominion wins 24 games they'll be a shoo-in for the NIT. I think they need to win 26 to feel somewhat confident on Selection Sunday. At 25 it'll be iffy.<br /><br />As for "likely to the second weekend", I think there are <i>maybe</i> 5 or 6 teams I would say that about right now, and they're teams like Kentucky, Duke, Virginia and Wisconsin. I certainly wouldn't say it about any potentialy bubble team like Old Dominion.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53449727540576454252015-01-12T18:48:35.324-05:002015-01-12T18:48:35.324-05:0026th right now in rpi and espn's Bpi, old domi...26th right now in rpi and espn's Bpi, old dominion should be included in the bracket. I think the difference in your brackets and others is that yours is trying to forecast what it will look like in March while others are posting brackets based on things right now today. Odu rpi wise today would get into the tourny. It may fall depending on what happens in conference play but as long as old dominion wins 24-26 games total, they'll be a shoe in for a pretty good seed. Old dominions defense can likely get them into the second weekend of the tournament, it's that good. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-73718919608864588932015-01-11T22:54:48.526-05:002015-01-11T22:54:48.526-05:00What did Old Dominion do this week to suggest they...What did Old Dominion do this week to suggest they should move up?<br /><br />The Conference USA is lower rated than the Ivy League and Horizon League in both Sagarin and Pomeroy. The odds are against them earning an at-large bid.<br /><br />Obviously at-large bids are handed out to teams and not conferences, and it's possible for a team to put up a great resume in a horrible conference, but there's a reason it so rarely happens. And I've explained this before: Old Dominion has zero remaining chances for "quality" wins, but every loss would be a "bad" loss. It's hard to build a resume in that paradigm.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-16020476366582811202015-01-11T14:12:47.782-05:002015-01-11T14:12:47.782-05:00Still no odu? This is a joke. The Monarchs will li...Still no odu? This is a joke. The Monarchs will likely win cusa this year and be in the tourny. I think cusa can get two teams in the tourny and make some noise. You'll doubt us now but I wouldn't be shocked if odu was in the sweet 16 this March. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-32732820065353264572015-01-11T12:21:23.236-05:002015-01-11T12:21:23.236-05:00Ok. That makes sense. Thanks! Ok. That makes sense. Thanks! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-13127095205128485632015-01-11T12:12:31.316-05:002015-01-11T12:12:31.316-05:00I'm bumping UConn up 2-3 seed lines for winnin...I'm bumping UConn up 2-3 seed lines for winning their conference tournament. San Diego State similarly has been bumped up 1-2 seed lines for winning their conference tournament.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-3224302098416148102015-01-11T11:59:03.192-05:002015-01-11T11:59:03.192-05:00Why so high on UCONN? In your morning post, you sa...Why so high on UCONN? In your morning post, you said UCONN must go at least 12-6 in conf play to be safe (with 13-5 not being a lock). But you have them as high as a 5th seed. You think they're going to be somewhere around 15-3 or 16-2 in the AAC? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-29872779022993986662015-01-11T10:58:53.832-05:002015-01-11T10:58:53.832-05:00Yes, I talked about that in today's Morning Ne...Yes, I talked about that in today's Morning News post. I don't think their defense is good enough to get to the 10-8 B1G record they probably need to get in.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-68664648371819958342015-01-11T10:48:25.192-05:002015-01-11T10:48:25.192-05:00thoughts on IU? Resume looks solid as of now, does...thoughts on IU? Resume looks solid as of now, does that mean you're projections have them regressing a little as conference play continue?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12947473818009463271noreply@blogger.com