tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.comments2023-09-01T06:51:04.030-04:00Basketball PredictionsJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comBlogger4682125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-33255571091894577272019-03-20T18:21:41.444-04:002019-03-20T18:21:41.444-04:00Sorry, I just don't have the time to blog with...Sorry, I just don't have the time to blog with my job right now. I put some bracket thoughts up on twitter...Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-62194510348901388942019-03-20T09:20:29.698-04:002019-03-20T09:20:29.698-04:00Ah, Jeff I miss your analysis! Are you going to be...Ah, Jeff I miss your analysis! Are you going to be able to break down any games this madnees season?<br /><br />Miss you man...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53227834418503918472018-03-13T22:45:14.839-04:002018-03-13T22:45:14.839-04:00Haven't read it, but I'll look into it.Haven't read it, but I'll look into it.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-10954111077520804042018-03-13T21:08:53.206-04:002018-03-13T21:08:53.206-04:00Jeff - have you read The Undoing Project? If not, ...Jeff - have you read The Undoing Project? If not, move up in your reading queue...Nuclear Badgerhttp://twitter.com/nuclearbdgrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-44067112656915051522018-03-13T18:14:24.297-04:002018-03-13T18:14:24.297-04:00Not planning on doing a full breakdown. I'll d...Not planning on doing a full breakdown. I'll do a short one on twitter. I just don't have time this year to put in the hours it takes to crank that out.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-17970805998522541692018-03-13T13:24:18.127-04:002018-03-13T13:24:18.127-04:00Will you be doing a tournament breakdown again thi...Will you be doing a tournament breakdown again this year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-89945141816596850232018-03-13T10:34:56.465-04:002018-03-13T10:34:56.465-04:00Awesome read Jeff.....so, do we get any prediction...Awesome read Jeff.....so, do we get any predictions from you? Sweet 16 teams? Anything? You are the man at this so we gots to get a little sumptin, sumptin :-)<br /><br />Take care bro...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-12569684196222704432018-01-29T17:51:07.022-05:002018-01-29T17:51:07.022-05:00Haha, thanks, man. We'll see what happens next...Haha, thanks, man. We'll see what happens next season.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-8179252801409108602018-01-29T10:07:56.918-05:002018-01-29T10:07:56.918-05:00Not even March MAdness? You are da man at that...y...Not even March MAdness? You are da man at that...you can't leave us :-(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-3073408725619228822018-01-19T19:45:47.753-05:002018-01-19T19:45:47.753-05:00Sorry, no time for regular blogging this season wi...Sorry, no time for regular blogging this season with my new job. I miss it...Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-54150437890205829132018-01-19T14:54:46.418-05:002018-01-19T14:54:46.418-05:00Where has Jeff gone? No college analysis this year...Where has Jeff gone? No college analysis this year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-53699453474675987142017-11-29T11:50:18.860-05:002017-11-29T11:50:18.860-05:00Kuzma Overrated and Zach Collins underrated. This...Kuzma Overrated and Zach Collins underrated. This blog post did not age well my friend.Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12689890753171682756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-24697458837824706102017-05-03T20:52:10.303-04:002017-05-03T20:52:10.303-04:00Didn't realize that about this year's cour...Didn't realize that about this year's course, makes sense then. Thanks for the response!Zachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-36260920741426683602017-05-03T20:04:33.710-04:002017-05-03T20:04:33.710-04:00While I generally like Chris Froome, I agree with ...While I generally like Chris Froome, I agree with you that it's way too boring when they just suck the life out of the Tour de France. That said, the young Frenchmen have shown some life, so it's possible that he gets challenged.<br /><br />I don't know about Nairo for sure, but the 2017 TdF course does not really suit his skills. There's a lot of difficult descending, not many tough summit finishes, and a long individual time trial. Maybe he will try the Giro/Vuelta double instead.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-10588603901238623122017-05-03T15:44:00.143-04:002017-05-03T15:44:00.143-04:00This is obvi way off-topic and I'm not sure ho...This is obvi way off-topic and I'm not sure how soon you'll see it, but I don't really do Twitter, and since I don't trust the average sports media, I don't trust whatever Google would give me, so you are my best hope.<br /><br />Why is Nairo racing Italy again? Has he given up on winning the TdF or something? And if he's not going to challenge Sky, will anyone? I like cycling (for an American at least), but there's gotta be more doubt to the final outcome than 'maybe he'll crash.'Zachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-66667463850699176172017-04-15T14:31:02.667-04:002017-04-15T14:31:02.667-04:00I don't like basketball nor follow this sport....I don't like basketball nor follow this sport. I am not going to read this blog but yes i do prefer this blog to all the basketball lovers.Jimyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07349555226330578834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-83571367293429527142017-04-12T13:34:54.528-04:002017-04-12T13:34:54.528-04:00nice postnice postlizahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06035184100892779826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-10716885262576419012017-04-04T08:44:49.037-04:002017-04-04T08:44:49.037-04:00What a thoughtful and well considered take. You sh...What a thoughtful and well considered take. You should keep it up. You DEFINITELY do not sound dangerously insane.David Mannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13040631482740263864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-45420760492402628022017-04-03T18:41:00.951-04:002017-04-03T18:41:00.951-04:00With you on Gonzaga. Thanks for the write-ups this...With you on Gonzaga. Thanks for the write-ups this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-84708952538472810712017-04-03T17:04:34.418-04:002017-04-03T17:04:34.418-04:00HHAHAHAHA. I knew you'd call this a "publ...HHAHAHAHA. I knew you'd call this a "public" line. As usual you don't know what the fuck you're talking about when it comes to gambling. If you could blindly bet differences between the Vegas line and BPI/KenPom/Sagarin then we'd all be fucking rich. You are such a fucking clown.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-23956737078715864842017-04-02T08:07:31.692-04:002017-04-02T08:07:31.692-04:00You seem delightful.You seem delightful.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-64704029451932952252017-04-02T02:58:31.045-04:002017-04-02T02:58:31.045-04:00There are far more of the 'super successful...There are far more of the 'super successful' coaches at the positive end of the PASE spectrum than there are at the negative end. It's not equally distributed as you seem to be suggesting, which would support the idea that it's just random chance that's producing extremely high or low PASE values for successful coaches.<br /><br />Successful coaches at the plus end of PASE (+3 or better): Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, John Calipari, Billy Donovan, Jim Larranaga, Jim Boeheim, Rick Pitino, Brad Stevens, Tom Izzo, John Beilein, Bo Ryan, Sean Miller<br /><br />Successful coaches at the negative end of PASE (-3 or worse): Coach K, Bill Self, Tony Bennett, Huggins, Dixon. <br /><br />That's 12 coaches at the plus end and 5 on the negative end. Hardly equally distributed. <br /><br />Your picks are also dog shit. Keep flipping those coins you developmentally disabled fuck stick. I pray to god no one is tailing those picks because they'll be filing for bankruptcy soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-16043325374122709662017-03-28T19:59:39.461-04:002017-03-28T19:59:39.461-04:00Again... you are still using a counting metric. Cu...Again... you are still using a counting metric. Cutting it off at 5 games isn't any less dumb than cutting it off at 1 game. Look at how the coaches at the extreme ends are all the super successful coaches who have been in the NCAA Tournament many times. <br /><br />If we are to look at this from a Bayesian approach, the null hypothesis is that all coaches perform exactly well in the postseason as they do in the regular season. I am unaware of any scientific or statistical evidence of any kind that credibly challenges that hypothesis. Are you?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-27077998602416552162017-03-28T18:47:53.746-04:002017-03-28T18:47:53.746-04:00He's still fifth worst in PASE among coaches w...He's still fifth worst in PASE among coaches with at least 5 tournament appearances. The fact is his teams have underachieved compared to how you would expect them to perform on average. At some point it stops being just 'bad luck' and it's actually because you're being out-coached because you don't know how to adapt your style of play to maximize your chances of winning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22972768.post-18864385775749323702017-03-28T17:55:16.202-04:002017-03-28T17:55:16.202-04:00That's a wildly deceptive factoid. PASE is a c...That's a wildly deceptive factoid. PASE is a counting stat, so of course the extreme ends are going to be coaches who have coached a lot of games. Most of those 302 coaches have only participated in a handful of games, and many have coached just once. And of the coaches even lower ranked than Bill Self includes Coach K.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12767101715737129123noreply@blogger.com