Basketball Predictions

Another Brutal Loss For Texas

2012-02-02T00:42:00.000-05:00

#4 Missouri 67, Texas 66
The end of this game, after Myck Kabongo missed the potential game winner, led to the classic post hoc analysis. Everybody praised Frank Haith for his brilliant coaching adjustments, particularly switching to a zone on the final possession. Everybody heaped scorn on Rick Barnes. It was enough that even Ken Pomeroy had to crack open his rarely-used blog to talk about coaching luck. As he pointed out, Texas had a play called out of the huddle to deal with the zone, and not only did they get a good shot on the final possession, but Myck Kabongo was probably fouled. Rick Barnes claimed that officials told him after the game that they'd blown the call and that Kabongo was actually fouled. If the officials had called that foul and Kabongo had hit both at the line, the story would have been how Frank Haith's bad coaching had blown a late ten point lead. The difference between a coach getting loads of praise or loads of scorn from the media shouldn't be a single play where a single referee can change things single-handedly... but it is.

Right now, Texas sits at 61st in the Sagarin ELO_CHESS and 21st in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Their Pomeroy rating has moved up to 20th. There really is no other recent example of a team like this. The best example I can think of is the 2009-10 Washington team that spent most of the year rated around 20-25th in the Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR but was 7-7 in Pac-12 play at one point. I got a lot of criticism just for leaving them in my bracket (and as the favorites to win the Pac-12 tournament) that year. But they won their final four regular season games, took the Pac-12 tournament and after earning an 11 seed went all the way to the Sweet 16. Another comparison is the 2006-07 Villanova team that was 6-7 in the Big East at one point and that finished the season 15th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 38th in Pomeroy. But they only earned a 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament and went one-and-done after an atrocious shooting performance against Kentucky. And of course, this Texas team is improving as the season goes along. I think that by March they'll be one of the 10 or 15 best teams in the country.

So Texas now sits at 3-6 in Big 12 play, and at risk of missing the NCAA Tournament. But if they get into the Tournament they'll have a great shot to reach the Sweet 16 and will be a dark horse Final Four contender. It's a bizarre place. They shouldn't have any trouble on Saturday with Texas Tech at home, but then will have a difficult road game Monday night at Texas A&M.

Two of Missouri's last three wins have been by a single point, but both games were against elite teams (the other was against Baylor), so there's no reason to worry too much. If they'd lost both of those games by a single point I'd be defending their bad luck right now. They have a huge game coming up Saturday night against Kansas, a team that has struggled against opponents that can hit threes and get to the line (both of which Missouri does quite well). With a home game against Baylor coming up a week later, they do need to be careful of looking past a potentially tricky road game at Oklahoma.

Illinois 42, #10 Michigan State 41
This wasn't a well-played game, but it wasn't horribly played either. Both of these teams are better on defense than offense, and both played good defense here. But then, neither team could hit a jumper either. The two teams combined to hit 6-for-31 behind the arc. Of course, the big story from this game was Draymond Green's injury. Green twisted his knee and fell without touching any other player, and couldn't put any weight on that leg the rest of the night, which is never a good sign. For now, Michigan State is claiming it's just a sprain and that he's "day to day", which is a good, but I just find it hard to believe that he won't miss at least a game.

Michigan State will be a great rebounding team as long as Tom Izzo is there, and their defense will still be excellent without Green also, but offense is where they'll feel his absence. Besides his scoring, Green is effectively tied for the team lead in assists (3.5 per game, compared to 3.9 for Keith Appling). He's like Goran Suton, only much better. Appling has turned into an excellent scorer, but Michigan State doesn't really have anybody else that can score besides Draymond Green. The key test will be on Sunday against Michigan. After that they only will have an easy home game against Penn State before playing Ohio State on February 11th, when Draymond Green will likely be back. Can they score enough to keep up with the Wolverines? We'll see.

This may have been an ugly win, but it's also a huge win for Illinois. They're now 16-6 with a 5-4 conference record and wins over Ohio State, Michigan State, Gonzaga and Minnesota, along with a bad loss to Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 23rd, and there's no question that if the season ended now that they'd be in the NCAA Tournament. With that set of big wins and the strength of the Big Ten, I think that a 9-9 Big Ten record and a win in the Big Ten tournament will be more than enough to lock up an NCAA Tournament bid. Their next game will be on Sunday against Northwestern. After that they'll go on the road for a pair of key games against Indiana and Michigan.

Iowa State 72, Kansas State 70
For a while it looked like a classic letdown game for Iowa State. Coming off that huge win against Kansas they were struggling mightily at home against a Kansas State team that has struggled badly on the road so far this season. They trailed for most of the second half, falling behind by as much as 14 before Royce White and Chris Allen took over down the stretch.

It's been a very impressive two weeks for Iowa State. They went to Lubbock and destroyed Texas Tech by 24, then hung close until the final minute at Texas, then beat Kansas and had this nice comeback win over Kansas State. They're now 6-3 in the Big 12 with wins over Kansas, Texas and Kansas State, and only one real bad loss (Drake). Their RPI is 38th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 41st. If the season ended now, Iowa State would be an NCAA Tournament team for sure. But the season doesn't end now, and the concern is that this Cyclones team is going to have a reality check at some point. They're not going to keep this level of play up through March. So can they absorb that reality check and keep rolling? I think they need to go 4-5 down the stretch (to get to 10-8 in conference play) to stay in the Field of 68. Their next game will be on Saturday at Oklahoma.

This loss drops Kansas State to 4-5 in Big 12 play, though with two easy games coming up (at home against Texas A&M and Texas Tech). They had a much stronger non-conference performance than Iowa State (wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama and Long Beach State, and zero bad losses), so even a 9-9 conference record should be enough to send Kansas State to the Tournament. Getting there won't be easy, though. These really need these two home wins coming up, because after that they have a vicious stretch (at Texas, vs Kansas, at Baylor, at Missouri). They could easily lose all four of those games.

Notre Dame Closes In On The Bubble

2012-02-01T00:25:00.000-05:00

Notre Dame 50, #19 Connecticut 48
Even the return of Ryan Boatright wasn't enough to stop the bleeding for UConn. Their offense has been struggling in all facets. They're not rebounding, they're not getting to the line, and they're not shooting well. They've now lost three straight and five out of seven and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS rating has fallen all the way to 53rd (in other words, they'd be a bubble team if the season ended now). Meanwhile, the Irish offense is starting to roll. They're one of the best passing teams in the nation, and a ton of credit has to go to Mike Brey, who surely is the favorite for Big East Coach of the Year. They had assists on 13 of 17 made baskets here to raise their season A/FGM ratio to 61.9, which is second best in the Big East.

The Irish are now 6-3 in Big East play, which is starting the at-large hype. In any of the past few years, a 6-3 Big East record would have been a great achievement. But you know another team that is 6-3 in Big East play right now? South Florida. The Big East is down this year. And on top of that, Notre Dame played poorly out-of-conference (bad losses to Georgia and Maryland, along with zero good wins). They do have wins over Syracuse, UConn and Louisville now, driving their Sagarin ELO_CHESS up to 54th. Would that put them in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now? I doubt it. But they're close. If they can get to 11-7 in Big East play (a 5-4 finish) and then win a game in the Big East tournament, they'd be right on the bubble. They have a huge home game coming up on Saturday against Marquette.

UConn did beat Harvard, Florida State and Arkansas out-of-conference, along with West Virginia and Notre Dame in conference play, but they also have bad losses to UCF, Tennessee and Rutgers. Each of their losses in this three-game losing streak has been by three points or less, so they're better than their record and I expect them to improve in February and March, but there's no question that right now they're a bubble team. Their remaining Big East schedule is brutal, so if they can get to 10-8 then they'll be in pretty good shape. They still have to play Syracuse twice and also have several other difficult road games, starting with one at Georgetown.

Pittsburgh 72, West Virginia 66
Speaking of bubble hype, I wasn't ready to talk about Pitt just because they won a couple of home games, but now they've gone on the road and beaten a quality West Virginia team to run their winning streak to three. It's remarkable how much smoother they are offensively with Tray Woodall playing at full strength. And psychologically, the fact that they can score better on offense is helping them focus more defensively, too. At this point, honestly, Pitt is playing as well or better than several teams that I currently have in my bracket.

But here's the problem with Pitt's at-large hopes. The Selection Committee does not select the 37 best available teams for at-large bids, they select the 37 best resumes. The only exception to that rule I can think of from recent memory was last season's USC team, which I complained about at the time. Assuming the Selection Committee sticks to what they've done historically, Pitt will not get a pass for that eight game losing streak. And right now, their resume still stinks - they're only 3-7 in Big East play. They have wins over Georgetown and West Virginia, but also have losses to Wagner, DePaul and Rutgers. They are 10-9 against the RPI Top 200, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 77th. With the Big East being down this season, it's impossible to conceive of any at-large scenario for Pitt where they don't finish at least 8-10. And, honestly, I think they need to get to 9-9 to have a realistic chance. So they have a long, long way to go before they can be taken too seriously as an at-large contender. The good news is that their remaining schedule is very manageable, beginning with a home game against Villanova on Sunday. After that they'll head on the road to face USF.

It's been a brutal week for West Virginia. In a six day stretch they lost three games - one at home, one to St. John's, and one on a blown goaltending call. They are now only 5-5 in Big East play, though their overall resume is still pretty solid (wins over Georgetown, Kansas State and Cincinnati, along with bad losses to St. John's and Kent State). Considering their remaining schedule, they should be in good shape for an at-large bid if they can get to 10-8. They'll head to Providence for a game on Sunday before coming home to face Notre Dame and Louisville.

California 69, Stanford 59
Stanford has struggled with offensive efficiency all season, and they went into a funk at a really bad time in this game. Between the 8:30 and 1:00 mark in the second half they scored a total of 8 points on 3-for-9 shooting from the field and 2-for-6 from the line, along with three turnovers (0.62 PPP). Even against the very disappointing Pac-12 conference, Stanford is only scoring 0.96 PPP. Early in the season Stanford was looking like a clear NCAA Tournament team, and an equal to California, but they are definitely fading. And with this result and with Oregon falling to Oregon State the same day, we are now in a situation where there is only one team in the entire Pac-12 inside the Sagarin ELO_CHESS Top 60 (California). A one-bid Pac-12 does look like a very realistic scenario.

California does look like the one Pac-12 team safely inside the NCAA Tournament field. They are 17-5 overall and 7-2 in conference play, without any really big wins, but with only one bad loss (Washington State). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 30th, and they're actually rated as a Top 20 team by both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. The fact that there are no big wins to be had in the Pac-12 means that as well as they play they're never going to be more than a couple of losses from the bubble, but even a 6-3 finish (to get to 13-5) should be enough to send them to the Big Dance.

If a second Pac-12 team earns an at-large bid it is most likely going to be Stanford, but their offensive futility has really weakened their resume the past couple of weeks. They are now only 5-4 in Pac-12 play. They did beat NC State, but they also have bad losses to Oregon, Butler and Washington State. They are only 6-6 against the RPI Top 200. There's no question that this team would be NIT-bound if the season ended now. If they're going to earn an at-large bid, they have to finish at least 11-7 in conference play, and then will need to do some damage in the Pac-12 tournament. A key opportunity will be their home game against California, though that won't be until Senior Day, on March 4th. This weekend they'll play the two Arizona teams at home. Next week they'll head on the road to play the two southern California teams.

W-6 BP68

2012-01-29T01:43:00.000-05:00

So is everybody ready to spend hours and hours tomorrow discussing Texas?

Okay... that was a joke. I actually wrote a long post about Texas right after their game against Baylor to try to avoid that. There are more than 100 teams listed below, and I won't allow myself to get bogged down in another Texas discussion.

Of more interest this week was that the fact that the bubble got weaker. Saturday was a brutal day for the bubble - nearly every team on it lost. I really struggled to fill in the final spots in the field. I decided to drop Arizona this week, the team that had previously been my pick to win the Pac-12. But with Kevin Parrom getting hurt and now out for the season, I've switched my Pac-12 pick to California. Even before Parrom got hurt I didn't think Arizona had a good chance at an at-large bid, so they're out of the Field of 68 altogether. I put in NC State in their place, but don't feel good about that pick. Honestly, I don't like having Northwestern or Dayton in my bracket either. I just couldn't think of a better option. Yes, I know that Minnesota's resume right now is better than Northwestern's, but look at those teams and look at their remaining schedules and you'll see why I think that Northwestern will be in better shape than Minnesota on Selection Sunday.

Among the auto bids I made two changes. In the America East, as promised, I switched out Vermont for Stony Brook. In the SWAC I switched out Alabama State in favor of Mississippi Valley State.

As far as the Full Bubble, four teams were eliminated from at-large contention this week: Ball State, Boston College, George Washington and Texas Tech. With those four out, that leaves 75 teams not in my current bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

I don't think there were any other major changes from my last bracket, so let me get to my disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. Florida
2. Georgetown

3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Missouri
3. Michigan STate
3. Baylor

4. Texas
4. Marquette
4. Vanderbilt
4. Wisconsin

5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Virginia
5. Indiana
5. UConn

6. San Diego State
6. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
6. Michigan
6. Louisville

7. CREIGHTON (MVC)
7. Alabama
7. West Virginia
7. Illinois

8. Gonzaga
8. Saint Louis
8. Florida State
8. Purdue

9. Southern Miss
9. Kansas State
9. Wichita State
9. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

10. New Mexico
10. BYU
10. Xavier
10. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)

11. Cincinnati
11. Mississippi State
11. Iowa State
11. HARVARD (IVY)

12. Seton Hall
12. Stanford
12. Northwestern
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

13. NC State
13. Dayton
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Minnesota, VCU, Marshall, Cleveland State, Arizona

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, South Florida, Oklahoma, Drexel, Central Florida, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Maryland, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Villanova, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Akron, Drake, Illinois State, UCLA, Oregon State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Charlotte, Duquesne, Fordham, DePaul, Providence, St. John's, Weber State, Penn State, Georgia State, Old Dominion, UTEP, Tulane, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Loyola-Maryland, Buffalo, Kent State, Indiana State, Air Force, Boise State, TCU, Wagner, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota State, Denver, Utah State

Saint Mary's Unstoppable In Win At BYU

2012-01-29T00:34:00.000-05:00

#20 St. Mary's 80, BYU 66
The St. Mary's offense is gradually getting recognized as one of the best in the land. BYU almost never loses at the Marriott Center (they came into this season having lost only four home games combined the previous five seasons), but St. Mary's just wiped the floor with them. They led by as many as 23 points in the second half. St. Mary's is now scoring an absurd 1.19 PPP in conference play (BYU is second at 1.06). They are 10-0 in conference play, and the only real test left will be if they can beat Gonzaga in Spokane, having already destroyed them by 21 points in Moraga. It's hard to argue with the fact that St. Mary's has played the best basketball of any WCC team so far this season.

There are two questions here. First, are they the favorites to win the WCC auto bid? Second, how safe are they for an at-large bid? Gonzaga had been my pick to take the WCC, but I'm going to be changing that pick now. What St. Mary's did here was just too impressive. Gonzaga doesn't have the perimeter players to hang with the Gaels offense, and I don't think they will have the offensive firepower to keep up. As for the at-large bid? They are now 21-2 overall with wins over Gonzaga and BYU (twce), and only that one bad loss to Denver. Their RPI is up to 20th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be up near 15th. They can actually afford a bad loss or two and still be fine for an at-large bid. They're in with plenty of room to spare right now. Their next game will be on Thursday against San Diego. After that they'll have a week to prepare for that road game at Gonzaga.

This loss drops BYU to 6-3 in conference play, and they're 18-6 overall with a win over Virginia Tech along with bad losses to Loyola-Marymount and Utah State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is around 45th right now, which actually would put them on the Tournament bubble, particularly with the lack of big wins. They have a key game coming up on Thursday at home against Gonzaga. They desperately need a big win to solidify their resume, and this will be their final home game against a quality opponent the rest of the season.

Drake 93, Wichita State 86, 3OT
This seemed like a game that would never end. It ended up taking nearly three full hours. It was just an all-around bad night for Wichita State. They turned the ball over a lot, they struggled on the boards, and the fouls really started to add up as this game went into the extra periods. Two players fouled out (including Tour'e Murray) and three others had four fouls apiece. Drake was able to keep their key players out of foul trouble, including Ben Simons who had 29 points on 11-for-22 shooting in 53 minutes played.

Wichita State came into this game rated in the Top 15 by Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but the problem is that their schedule has been soft and hasn't left them with a large margin of error. The only big win they have came against UNLV, and now they have a bad loss to Drake. Their RPI is now 30th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to be right around there as well. That said, they are still 18-4 overall and 9-2 in conference play. Even with only a 5-2 finish (to get to 14-4), their won-loss record should be too good for them to get left out on Selection Sunday. But you never want to take a chance in the Missouri Valley Conference. Because Arch Madness ends a full week before Selection Sunday, the Valley teams tend to get forgotten over the ensuing week. Typically, any MVC team on the bubble at the end of Arch Madness ends up with a ticket to the NIT. Their next game will be Wednesday at Missouri State.

Drake actually moved to 6-5 in Missouri Valley play with this win, and pushed their RPI (and most likely their Sagarin ELO_CHESS) inside the Top 100. They don't have a plausible path to an at-large bid, but if they can get to 9-9 that will have to be considered a successful season. They'll try to move to 7-5 on Wednesday at Indiana State.

Minnesota 77, Illinois 72, OT
This was a heartbreaking loss for Illinois. They were leading by three in the final seconds when Minnesota's Austin Hollins inexplicably attacked the basket instead of going for the game-tying three. But Hollins made a layup and Meyers Leonard was called for a foul. Hollins completed the old fashioned three-point play to send the game to overtime. I thought it was a very soft foul call on Leonard, and if I was reffing I wouldn't have called it, but there's just no way that Leonard can put himself in a situation where he gives the ref a chance to make that call. You've got to get out of the way - let Hollins get the layup. Throw in 3-for-21 three-point shooting for the Illini, and this is clearly a game that they'll feel that they should have won.

This loss drops Illinois to 4-4 in Big Ten play, with wins over Ohio State, Gonzaga, Minnesota and Northwestern, along with a bad loss to Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should still stay inside the Top 30, but they're dangerously close to falling onto the bubble. I think they need to get to 9-9 in Big Ten play and then need to win a game in the Big Ten tournament to feel good about their at-large chances. They have a chance to bounce back in a big way on Tuesday when Michigan State comes to Assembly Hall. After that they'll have a key home game against a Northwestern team desperate for a quality road win.

Minnesota opened the season 0-4 in Big Ten play, but they've won four of five and are now 4-5, with wins over Indiana, Virginia Tech, Illinois and Northwestern, and with only one bad loss (Iowa). This win pushes their RPI up to 39th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should move into the Top 40 as well. If the season ended now they'd be in the NCAA Tournament. The concern for them is that their remaining schedule is brutal. They will play Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin (twice). They're going to have to win at least a couple of those games, because they're probably going to have to get to 9-9 to have a good shot at an at-large bid, and they can't expect to win all of their other games (nothing is a "gimme game" in this year's Big Ten). Their next game will be Wednesday at Iowa, a perfect example of a game that they need to win but which definitely will not be a "gimme".

Dayton Falls At Home To Rhode Island

2012-01-28T23:58:00.004-05:00

Rhode Island 86, Dayton 81
This has been a bad day for a lot of bubble teams, and Dayton might have had the worst loss of all. Rhode Island hadn't won a single conference game all season long. I was watching an internet stream of a local Dayton broadcast, and I can't recall the last time I heard announcers so depressed after a game. Billy Baron, the Coach's son, scored 25 points on 7-for-12 shooting. Jonathan Holton was all over the floor with 16 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals. Overall, Rhode Island scored 1.21 PPP, the sixth straight game where Dayton has allowed more than 1 PPP. That's just not good enough to win consistently.

Dayton has a whole bunch of nice wins this season (St. Louis, Temple, Minnesota and Alabama), but this loss drops them to 4-3 in Atlantic Ten play with bad losses to Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, Miami (OH) and now Rhode Island. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should fall out of the Top 60. If the season ended now they'd be NIT-bound. At this point, it's hard to see Dayton earning an at-large bid unless they finish at least 11-5 in conference play, which would mean at least a 7-2 record in their final nine games. They'll begin on Wednesday at home against Duquesne before heading on the road to play St. Louis on Saturday.

This win will likely be the highlight of the Rhode Island season. For the most part, the only good thing about this season for Rhode Island is that they're young and they're playing hard, and so they should be better next season. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against UMass.

#21 Virginia 61, NC State 60
NC State trailed by a few points for nearly the entire night. They were 2-for-15 on threes, and just could not get a big shot to fall. Lorenzo Brown had a chance to get a winner on the final possession of the game, but ended up having to take a deep contested jumper that he missed. This is a tough loss for NC State to swallow for a couple of reasons. First of all, they dominated the boards (16 offensive rebounds vs 4 for Virginia) against a Cavaliers team that actually came into this game leading the nation in defensive rebounding percentage (77.1%), and matched them with 11 turnovers. Second of all, on a day where nearly every bubble team seemed to lose, this was a wonderful chance for NC State to thrust themselves into the Tournament bracket.

A win here would have actually pushed NC State to 5-2 in ACC play. Instead they're 4-3 with only that one big win over Texas, along with a bad loss to Georgia Tech. Their RPI is 59th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be close to that as well. So they're a borderline bubble team, but if the season ended now they'd definitely be left out of the Field of 68. I think they need to get to 10-6 in ACC play to have a good chance at an at-large bid. Their next game will be Wednesday at Boston College.

Virginia moves to 17-3 overall and 4-2 in conference play with this win. They are now 6-2 against the RPI Top 100 and have pushed their Sagarin ELO_CHESS into the Top 25. At this point, even a .500 finish the rest of the year (which would mean a 9-7 regular season record and a win in the ACC tournament) should be sufficient to put them in the NCAA Tournament. Considering their remaining schedule, I think they're more likely to win 10+ games than to win 9, so there's a good chance that by the time March rolls around that Cavaliers fans will only be worried about which seed they'll be earning in the NCAA Tournament. It's quite a turnaround for this team. In my view, it's hard to argue against Tony Bennett as the ACC Coach of the Year. Virginia's next game will be Tuesday against Clemson.

#25 Louisville 60, Seton Hall 51
This was a game between two teams that have been sliding the past couple of weeks... and somebody had to win. It turned out that Louisville won this game fairly easily, leading by double-digits most of the way. This was an underwhelming game from Louisville, though. Their offense was still dreadfully inefficient (23 turnovers), and still being killed by Peyton Siva trying to do too much (4 assists, 7 turnovers). Seton Hall just couldn't handle the Louisville pressure defense at all, finishing with a 30.2 eFG% and 0.71 PPP, their worst offensive performance of the season.

Louisville is still overrated and should not be ranked, but at least they seem to have steadied the ship a bit. They've won three straight now to move to 5-4 in Big East play with wins over Vanderbilt, Memphis, Long Beach State and Seton Hall, along with a bad loss to Providence. I don't think they're out of the woods yet, but it does look like they should make it to March without falling onto the bubble. Their next game will be next Saturday against Rutgers.

Seton Hall has now lost their fourth straight game to fall to 4-5 in Big East play. They have wins over UConn, West Virginia and Dayton, along with a bad loss to USF. Their RPI is still 31st but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will likely be around 40th. If the season ended now they'd be in the NCAA Tournament, but only barely. They need to turn this slump around soon, and unfortunately they head on the road now to play Marquette (Tuesday) and UConn (Saturday). Their schedule down the stretch is pretty easy, but they don't want to have to dig themselves out of a 4-7 hole.

Oklahoma Beats Kansas State In Manhattan

2012-01-28T23:12:00.000-05:00

Oklahoma 63, #24 Kansas State 60
This was a horrible loss for Kansas State. Particularly considering how bad they tend to play on the road, they absolutely could not afford a bad loss like this in Bramlage Coliseum, which is normally a fortress for them. They played extremely sloppy basketball (20 turnovers) and couldn't find anybody that could stop Steven Pledger (30 points on 11-for-17 shooting). Kansas State, because of the turnovers, scored only 0.87 PPP, their second worst offensive performance of the season (the debacle at Kansas was the only game that was worse).

With this loss, Kansas State falls to 4-4 in Big 12 play with road games at Baylor, Missouri, Texas and Iowa State still to go. In other words, it's unlikely that they'll finish better than 10-8. They have wins over Missouri, Texas and Alabama, and just a pair of bad losses to Oklahoma, so even if they finish 9-9 in Big 12 play they should still be a Tournament team. But it's now looking more and more likely that Kansas State will be on the bubble for much of the rest of the season. Their next game will be Tuesday at Iowa State.

Lon Kruger, in his first year at Oklahoma, has definitely figured out Kansas State. But besides his season sweep of the Wildcats, the Sooners don't have any quality wins and are only 13-7 overall and 3-5 in Big 12 play with a road game at Kansas up next, on Wednesday. They only need to go .500 the rest of the way to get to 8-10 and to have a shot at the bubble, though I doubt they'll get there. Their remaining schedule is pretty rough.

Rutgers 61, Cincinnati 54
Speaking of bad losses... this was not what Cincinnati needed coming in with a two-game losing streak. Cincinnati has some good shooters, but the problem is that their guards struggle to score in the paint. This has been the case all season long (their 45.2 2P% is worst in the Big East). Yancy Gates hit 7-of-10 here, but his teammates combined to hit just 6-for-26 (23.1%) of their twos. Rutgers was led again by true freshman Eli Carter (17 points, including 4-for-7 on threes).

This is a bad loss for Cincy's resume, but there's no question that Rutgers is playing a lot better now than they were earlier in the season. They've been feisty at home in Big East play so far, beating UConn, Notre Dame and now Cincinnati. They're actually up to 4-5 in Big East play now with a winnable road game coming up on Wednesday at Providence. There's no plausible path to the bubble, but it would be a great achievement if Rutgers could get into the top half of the Big East standings.

Cincinnati falls to 5-4 in Big East play with this loss. They have wins over Georgetown and UConn, along with bad losses to Presbyterian, St. John's and now Rutgers. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will actually fall out of the Top 60 after this loss. Considering the fact that Cincy played so poorly in non-conference play and the fact that the Big East is down this season, even a 10-8 Cincy team probably wouldn't make the NCAA Tournament unless they win a game or two in the Big East tournament. If they fall to 9-9 in Big East play then they're really in trouble. They have a week to get ready for a home game against DePaul, and also will play St. John's and Providence in the next two weeks, but their schedule over the final couple of weeks of the regular season will be very difficult. They can't afford any more bad losses.

Southern Miss 78, Central Florida 65
A week ago, Central Florida was 5-1 in Conference USA, coming off wins over Memphis and UAB. But on Wednesday they lost to Tulsa, and they went down pretty easily here to Southern Miss. Not a good way to back up that early success. Darnell Dodson had an efficient 22 points on 6-for-11 shooting for Southern Miss, and Neil Watson had the game of his life with 23 points, including 4-for-7 behind the arc. It was the second straight poor defensive performance for UCF, after defense had carried them through much of that successful stretch early in Conference USA play. That's a sign of a young team that lacks the proper concentration to win consistently.

UCF is now 5-3 in conference play with wins over UConn and Memphis, along with bad losses to Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulsa. They are 7-6 against the RPI Top 200, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to fall into the 70-75 range. Any run at an at-large bid is unlikely. If they make the NCAA Tournament it's more likely going to happen because of a run in the C-USA tournament. This loss drops them to 4th in the conference standings. Their next conference game will be a week from today, at SMU.

With this win, Southern Miss moves to 19-3 overall and in a tie for first in C-USA with a 6-1 conference record. They don't have any great wins, but they don't have any awful losses either (a loss to Denver isn't that great, though). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is inside the Top 20, but the lack of big wins means that their computer rating is tenuous. One or two bad losses is all it will take to bump them back to the Tournament bubble. Considering their remaining schedule, I think they need to get to 11-5 in conference play to feel good about their at-large hopes. That would mean a 5-4 finish, which seems manageable to me. Their next game is a huge one, on Wednesday at home against Memphis. The winner of that game will move into first place alone.

A Little Hope For Pittsburgh?

2012-01-28T22:24:00.000-05:00

Pittsburgh 72, #10 Georgetown 60
Between the start of December and January 15th, Travon Woodall only played one, ineffective game. He had been sidelined with an abdominal/groin injury. He returned to action a week ago against Louisville, though he was ineffective again. But on Wednesday he played well in Pitt's first win of the season (over Providence), and he looked like his old self here. He didn't score a lot, but he had 10 assists. And suddenly, Pitt's offense looks decent again: in the two games with Woodall back playing well, the Panthers have scored 1.16 PPP. I don't want to put all of Pitt's struggles on one player, because there's no excuse for some of those performances that Pitt has had (such as the 62-39 debacle to Rutgers), but there has to be a lot of hope in Pittsburgh that this team is going to actually play pretty well down the stretch.

Does Pitt still have time to get something out of this season? Do they still have a chance at an at-large bid? I'm sure some Pitt fans are wondering that, but at this point I have to say it's still very unlikely. They are 2-7 in Big East without any big wins out-of-conference and a few bad losses (Wagner, DePaul, Rutgers). They'd have to get to 8-10 to even have a chance heading into the Big East tournament, which would require a 6-3 finish with a whole bunch of tough road games left (UConn, Louisville, Seton Hall and West Virginia), along with some difficult home games. In my view, I need to see them beat more than one quality team before I even give serious thought to any at-large hopes for the Panthers. Their next game will be Monday night at West Virginia. Next Saturday they'll face Villanova at home.

This loss drops Georgetown to 6-3, and probably ends any realistic Big East title hopes. They'll have to win at Syracuse on February 8th to have any chance at all at a share of the title. Before that game they'll head home for a pair of games against UConn and USF. The UConn game is up first, on Wednesday.

Colorado State 77, #12 San Diego State 60
Colorado State fans didn't really act any different from any other fan base, so I don't mean to pick on them, but some things that fans do just don't make sense to me. When they were winning this game late they started chanting "over-rated, over-rated", and then as soon as the game finished they stormed the court. To me, that's insulting to your own team. Colorado State was only a 1.5 or 2 point dog in Vegas (depending on where you looked), and I expected them to win. San Diego State had won three straight huge games and was overdue for a loss, and CSU was stinging from back-to-back losses. Act like you expected to win this one, not like you're some lower level team that's super excited to win a single game over a quality opponent.

That said, Colorado State has been a team that tends to take care of business against inferior opponents and has always come up just short against elite opponents. CSU was a solid team the past two years, when a Big Four of UNLV, New Mexico, BYU and San Diego State dominated the conference. Including the conference tournament, CSU went 2-16 against those four teams over that stretch, and 14-2 against everybody else in the Mountain West. That's a remarkable dichotomy. BYU is no longer around, but CSU's first game this season against the new Big Three was a loss (a 30 point thumping at New Mexico). They needed to get over the hump and to win at least a pair of games against the Big Three to have a shot at an at-large bid, so getting this one big win really helps.

Colorado State is now 14-8 overall and 3-2 in the Mountain West, with this being their first quality win, although they don't have any really bad losses either. They are 3-6 against the RPI Top 100, but without any losses this season outside the Top 85. This win pushes their RPI up to 18th, though I wouldn't take that too seriously. Their Sagarin ELO-CHESS will be right around 50th. If the season ended now they'd be on the bubble, though I think they'd be left out because of the fact that they only have one Top 50 win. But if they can pick up one more win against the Big Three, get to 8-6 and win a game in the Mountain West tournament? They'll at the very least be on the bubble on Selection Sunday. They have a tough game coming up on Wednesday at UNLV, but then have a relatively easy stretch (vs Air Force, at TCU, at Boise State) before heading home for a key stretch of games against Wyoming and New Mexico. If they beat both Wyoming and New Mexico at home and go at least 4-2 over that six game stretch, I'll probably move them into my bracket.

This was a reality check game for San Diego State, and so not a whole lot to worry about. Their numbers in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR have risen from around 80th to nearly 40th over the past couple of weeks, and there's no question that their young players are looking a lot better than they were in November and December. They are still in an excellent position at 4-1 in Mountain West play. I still believe UNLV is the team to beat in the Mountain West, but wouldn't be shocked if SDSU proved me wrong. The Aztecs will be at home this week to play Boise State (Wednesday) and TCU (Saturday).

Purdue 58, Northwestern 56
This is one of those games far below the radar (it might not even get mentioned on Sportscenter tomorrow morning) but that has huge ramifications for Selection Sunday. Both of these teams could end up on the bubble, and it's always huge for bubble teams to beat other bubble teams. These two teams were within a couple of points of each other almost the entire game, and the winning bucket was an off-balance jumper on the baseline from Robbie Hummel. It's always a mistake to try to draw too many conclusions from a game that was this close, but Northwestern was very sloppy with the ball (16 turnovers). I think the ball was out of the hands of Dave Sobolewski too much. Sobolewski is a freshman and he's a little goofy looking, but it's gotten increasingly clear that he's a very good point guard who plays beyond his age and experience. I would have run more of the offense through him. Too often it seems like Northwestern sticks to their system and allows other teams to get the ball out of the hands of certain players (like John Shurna). If I were the coach, I'd be willing to shift out of the system a bit to get the ball into the hands of certain players. Particularly when your team (such as Northwestern) has so little depth.

This is another tough loss for Northwestern. They are now 0-3 this season in games decided by four points or less. They haven't lost to a single bad team all season, but they're only 12-8 overall, and just 2-6 in Big Ten play. The Big Ten is the best conference in the land, so if Northwestern can avoid any bad losses and can pick up a big scalp or two (they've already beaten Michigan State, but they need one or two more) and then get to 8-10 in Big Ten play, they'll at least have a chance to earn an at-large bid in the Big Ten conference. But that means going 6-4 the rest of the way. The good news is that they start "the rest of the way" with a home game against Nebraska on Thursday. Needless to say, Northwestern absolutely cannot afford to lose that game.

Purdue's resume is in a better place than Northwestern. They are now 5-4 in Big Ten play with wins over Temple, Illinois, Minnesota and Miami (Fl), and with bad losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to move up close to 40th after this win. If the season ended now they'd definitely be in the NCAA Tournament, but they need to get to at least 9-9 to still be in the Field of 68 when the Big Ten tournament tips off. They have a week off before an important game against an Indiana Hoosiers team that is desperate to beat a quality team on the road, something that they haven't done yet in Tom Crean's four seasons.

Kansas Falls To Iowa State

2012-01-28T20:05:00.000-05:00

Iowa State 72, #5 Kansas 64
From a distance, this wasn't that shocking of an upset. Iowa State was only a seven point dog in Vegas. But this is a very important win for the program. Iowa State has won one NCAA Tournament game in the last decade and haven't been to a postseason tournament of any kind since 2005. In the past six seasons heading into this one, the Cyclones were a combined 27-69 in Big 12 play. They did beat Texas at home earlier this season, but this is clearly their biggest win in the (coach) Fred Hoiberg era.

That said, this isn't necessarily a turning point into a sustainable quality program. Three of the top four Iowa State minutes earners are transfers, after all. It's made them better in the short term, but you can't have sustained success in college basketball unless you're getting quality production from your high school recruits. Hoiberg had a fairly strong recruiting class this season and has another one coming in next year. Only time will tell if those guys end up being producers down the line. Royce White, the transfer from Minnesota, actually outplayed Thomas Robinson here. White had 19 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, compared to 13 points, 7 rebounds and 0 assists for Robinson. And with Kansas within three points with five minutes to go, it was White who scored eight straight Iowa State points to help them keep their nose in front.

While the jury is still out on the long-term possibilities of the Iowa State program, this win is huge for their NCAA Tournament hopes. I had already moved Iowa State into the Field of 68 even before this win, but now they're even more firmly in. They are 5-3 in Big 12 play, with wins over Texas and Kansas along with a bad loss to Drake. With the strength of the Big 12, I think that a 10-8 conference record and a win in the Big 12 tournament will probably be sufficient for an NCAA Tournament bid. That means only .500 play the rest of the way. The Cyclones will try to avoid a letdown home loss to Kansas State on Tuesday before heading on the road to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Even after this loss, Kansas is still a game clear in the Big 12. If they win at least a share of the conference title and then win the Big 12 tournament then they will earn a 1 seed. They shouldn't have much trouble bouncing back on Wednesday at home against Oklahoma, but then they'll head on the road to play Missouri and Baylor. If they can somehow win both games then they'll just about lock up the Big 12 regular season title... though the odds of them winning both games are not high.

#13 Florida 69, #16 Mississippi State 57
This was a deceptive final score, and an underwhelming performance by the Gators at home. This game was tight almost the entire way, and Florida led by only four points with under 8 minutes to go before closing on an 18-10 run. They seemed to struggle with Mississippi State's size, and their paint help defense opened up the perimeter for Mississippi State's shooters (the team shot 7-for-16 behind the arc).

But a win's a win, and it's important to take care of business at home when trying to make a run at a conference title. In the loss column, Florida is tied with Vanderbilt and a game back of Kentucky, and they still have a home-and-home to play against both opponents. Those will be the games that likely will decide which team will win the SEC regular season title. The Gators are 17-4 overall and 5-1 in the SEC and are rated in the Top 15 in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but the concern is that they haven't really beaten anybody. They could really use a win over Kentucky to firm up their resume heading into Selection Sunday. Without a big win they risk ending up with a seed that won't make them happy on Selection Sunday.

Mississippi State is 17-5 overall and 4-3 in SEC play with wins over Alabama, Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Arizona, along with bad losses to Ole Miss, Akron and Arkansas. They are 5-5 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is likely to be right around 35th after this game. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but not by much. If they get to 10-6 in SEC play they'll be in good shape for an at-large bid, but if they only go 9-7 then they'll probably need at least one win in the SEC tournament. Their schedule will be tough down the stretch, but it's easy the next couple of weeks. Their next three games will be at home against Auburn, Ole Miss and Georgia. They need to take care of business in all three to stay on pace for the NCAA Tournament.

UMass 72, St. Louis 59
UMass blew this game open late in the first half, going on a 22-5 run in the final 8:10 of the half. St. Louis shot 2-for-11 over that stretch with a pair of turnovers. Things didn't improve much in the second half. This was the worst St. Louis offensive performance of the season... by far. They had a 38.1 eFG% and scored 0.77 PPP. To put that in perspective, their previous worst performances of the season were 42.7% and 0.95 PPP in their loss to Dayton to open A-10 play. UMass is a good defensive team, but I can only give them so much credit for this. Heck, St. Louis only hit 42% of their free throws.

This loss is a major concern for St. Louis. They came into this game ranked as one of the 15 best teams in the nation by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, but they don't have any big wins. Their best win this season came over Xavier, and they slipped up with a bad loss to Loyola-Marymount. The Billikens are 0-3 against the RPI Top 50 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is going to tumble to around 50th after this loss. In fact, if the season ended now I don't think St. Louis would make the Field of 68. There won't be any more chances for big wins the rest of the way, so they're going to have to earn their at-large bid by winning enough games to put together a nice won-loss record and solid computer numbers. I think they've got to finish at least 10-6 in conference play, and should really get to 11-5 to feel good about their chances. At 4-3 now, they will head home to play St. Bonaventure on Wednesday and Dayton on Saturday.

UMass didn't do anything out-of-conference, losing to Charleston and beating nobody of note. But they are now 5-2 in A-10 play with wins over St. Louis and St. Joe's. Their RPI is up to 56th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should move up to around 65-70th. They're not quite on the Tournament bubble yet, but they're close. If they can get to 11-5 in A-10 play and win a game or two in the A-10 tournament, we'll have to at least consider them seriously on Selection Sunday.

Luck Matters: Syracuse Over West Virginia, Baylor over Texas

2012-01-28T17:25:00.000-05:00

#4 Syracuse 63, West Virginia 61
I often talk about the difference between team resume and team quality. The better team doesn't always win, and there is a lot of luck involved in close games. While the media always creates post hoc rationalizations for close wins ("they willed themselves to the win" or "they made all the big plays down the stretch"), the reality is that in the long run luck evens out. Does a ref make an iffy call? Does a shot that rolls around the rim end up rolling in or out? These are all things that add up and matter in a game, though it's rare that one instance of luck is so blatant that nobody can dispute it... such as this game. Down by two points with the clock running out, Deniz Kilicli took a shot near the basket that would have tied up the game and Baye Moussa Keita blocked it, but there was goaltending that wasn't called. That's not an opinion, it's a fact - the ball clearly hit the backboard before it was blocked. This game should have had an overtime. Instead, because of a referee error, Kevin Jones had to take a tough, contested three at the buzzer that missed, and West Virginia lost.

On Selection Sunday, nobody will remember or care that a ref blew this game for West Virginia. Nobody is going to move them into the bracket or up a line because "Hey, remember that loss to Syracuse? That really should have gone to overtime." Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR numbers will reflect this strong performance, but their resume won't. It's just a loss. And West Virginia now drops to 5-4 in Big East play and 15-7 overall with wins over Georgetown, Kansas State and Cincinnati, along with bad losses to St. John's and Kent State. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but not by a wide margin. A win at Syracuse would have changed that. I think they need five more wins to more-likely-than-not make the NCAA Tournament. They've either got to get to 10-8, or they need to go 9-9 and then win at least one Big East tournament game. Their next game will be on Monday against an improving Pittsburgh team.

Syracuse was in danger of falling back to the pack in the Big East. With this win they hang onto first place in the Big East. Either way, though, I still think they're the best team in the Big East and in the driver's seat for a 1 seed in March. They have scuffled in their last three games without Fab Melo, though. They have a week to get ready for their next game, on Saturday at St. John's.

#7 Baylor 76, Texas 71
Unlike the West Virginia/Syracuse game, there was no one play you could credit to "luck" in this game. Baylor got some home-cooking from the refs (two Texas players fouled out and a few more were in foul trouble), but nothing beyond what is typical for college basketball games. Home teams get an extra four points in Vegas, and studies have shown that refereeing is the dominant reason for "home advantage" in basketball, and all other major sports. But that said, Texas is now 0-6 in games decided by six points or less, and their two losses that weren't that close came on the road against Top Ten teams (Missouri and North Carolina). If Texas had gone 6-0 in those games instead of 0-6 they'd be 19-2 instead of 13-8, and they'd be ranked in the Top Ten instead of being considered by most people as an NIT team.

As I already said, all that matters on Selection Sunday are wins and losses, and so the fact that Texas hasn't won these games will affect their seed in a big way, but casual fans and the media are very mistaken in not realizing that Texas is an elite team. The media, and most fans, will rationalize these close losses, as I said above. It would be easy to say that Texas is a young team, and young teams tend to lose close games, but that would be wrong. Read this post I wrote about Memphis for a longer discussion about that. Memphis was super young last year and had incredibly good luck (14-2 in games decided by five points or less), and so they entered this year way overrated, and have actually had bad luck this year despite having every key player back (more experience means better clutch play... right?).

I agree with Ken Pomeroy: Texas is the most underrated team in the country. Even after this loss they will still be rated as a Top 25 team by both Pomeroy and Sagarin, and they're actually playing better now than they were back in November and December. I expect Texas to be one of the 10 or 15 best teams in the country by the time the Tournament comes around. But the big question is: what will their seed be? If the season ended now, they actually wouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament. They're only 3-5 in Big 12 play. But their schedule will be a lot more manageable the rest of the way. They still have home games against Missouri, Baylor and Kansas State (opportunities for big wins) in addition to a bunch of games against the bottom of the conference (a home-and-home against Texas Tech, for example). I still think they'll finish 10-8 or 11-7 in conference play and then will win a couple of games in the Big 12 tournament. Remembering that the Selection Committee weights the final 10/12 games of the season much more than the rest of the season, Texas still has a good chance at a quality NCAA Tournament seed.

To me, Texas is a test of what people understand about advanced stats. If you think that "the team that wants it more" wins most close games, or that Tim Tebow "willed" his team to any victories this season (read my Tim Tebow post) then you think I'm an idiot and that Texas stinks. But if you understand that all teams in all sports win approximately 50% of their very close games over the long run and that clutch play is wildly overrated, then you understand that Texas is an elite team that is extremely underrated.

The Longhorns have an important game coming up on Monday at home against Missouri. I expect them to win that game, but if they don't then I will start to really drop their seed and start writing my "Pick Texas as a Cinderella team" posts for the NCAA Tournament.

By the way, there was another team in this game. This is an excellent win for Baylor. They are now only one game behind Kansas for the Big 12 lead. They lost at Kansas but will get a chance to get them back in Waco on February 8th. I'd bet against them winning the conference (I think Kansas is the better team), but they've put themselves in a position where they've got a legitimate shot, which is as much as you can ask for in a conference that Kansas has absolutely dominated for the better part of a decade. Baylor will play their next game on Wednesday at Texas A&M.

#18 Marquette 82, Villanova 78
Marquette's had bizarre troubles in the opening minutes of games in Big East play this season. They trailed Louisville 18-2 and came back to win. They trailed Pittsburgh 17-8 and came back to win. They trailed Syracuse 35-12 in the Carrier Dome and actually pulled within five points in the final minute before falling. And here? They trailed 28-10... and came back to win again. Makes you wonder if Buzz Williams needs to mix up his team's pregame routine.

The turning point in this game was a very dicey technical foul called on Maalik Wayns that nobody who was at the game thought he deserved (I wasn't at the game - that was just what I read from folks that were, and the announcers calling the game agreed). Marquette went on a quick 8-0 spurt following that technical foul that turned a four point deficit into a four point lead. With the refs taking over this game (45 fouls, 57 free throws, 3 technical fouls and a regulation game that took more than two and a half hours), Villanova just couldn't find a rhythm down the stretch.

Marquette is only one game behind Syracuse in the loss column. And if Georgetown loses (they're down to Pittsburgh as I'm typing this), the Golden Eagles will move into second place alone in the Big East. A 2 or 3 seed is definitely in play for Marquette, and even a 1 seed is possible if they can defy the odds and win the Big East tournament. They have already lost at Syracuse and will not get a return visit, but it's not inconceivable that they could be favored in every game the rest of the way. They could really build up their resume these next few weeks. They'll play Seton Hall on Tuesday, and then at Notre Dame next Saturday.

Villanova falls to 3-7 in Big East play and 10-12 overall with this loss. They're a better team than their record, but not that much better. They do have eight days now to get ready for their next game, on Sunday at Pitt.

Is Nevada The Favorite In The WAC?

2012-01-28T12:52:00.000-05:00

Nevada 68, New Mexico State 60
Home rims are supposed to be kind, but they weren't here for New Mexico State. They had 13 more offensive rebounds, earned 15 more free throw attempts, and committed the same number of turnovers. But they had only a 37.5 eFG% while Nevada had a 64.1 eFG%, and that's how they ended up losing. A bunch of the credit has to go with a good Nevada gameplan defensively. New Mexico State is a team that is strong in the paint, but they can't shoot the ball. Nevada packed the paint with their defense and dared New Mexico State to shoot over the top. Nevada's offense, on the other hand, has an array of excellent shooters, led by Malik Story (3-for-7 on threes), Deonte Burton (4-for-8 on threes) and Olek Czyz (7-for-10 from the field). Nevada's early 18-7 lead came after Burton and Czyz combined to start the game 8-for-8 from the field. New Mexico State just doesn't have the offensive firepower to easily overcome a deficit like that.

This is no embarrassing "bad" loss for New Mexico State, though. Nevada, very quietly, has won 14 consecutive games to move to 17-3 overall and 6-0 in conference play. Their best win in non-conference play was at home (and in overtime) over Washington, but since entering WAC play they've won on the road at both New Mexico State and Utah State and are in the driver's seat for the WAC regular season title. They will try to avoid a letdown game tonight at Louisiana Tech.

New Mexico State beat New Mexico early this season, but then lost to UTEP and have now lost consecutive games in WAC play, at Hawaii and now at home against Nevada. I'm not sure I want to panic about this result, though. The reality is that even with their offensive struggles, they still would have won this game if Nevada hadn't opened up on fire. There's no reason Nevada will repeat that in the WAC tournament. Many of these players were part of this two years ago when they shocked Utah State and earned the WAC's auto bid. They've stumbled the past two games, but I'm not ready to give up on them. I'll be very curious to see what happens when these two teams play again, in Reno, on March 1st. The Aggies will play next tonight, at home against Fresno State.

#25 Wisconsin 57, #17 Indiana 50
Indiana's road woes under Tom Crean continued here. They are 2-30 in road Big Ten games under Crean, with both wins coming against bottom-feeder Penn State. They are 1-4 in road Big Ten games this year, and with a 3-1 home record are 4-5 overall. It seems to me that they have a different emotional attitude on the road, and it leads them to play softer. Wisconsin has a fantastic half court defense (they lead the nation in eFG% against), and they were very physical in the interior here. Cody Zeller was entirely shut down, scoring only 7 points on 2-for-7 shooting - he actually sat for most of the final ten minutes of the game. In their home games, Indiana has showed strong physical play, going after loose balls and fighting back. But on the road it seems like they'd prefer to whine about bad calls rather than match the physicality of their opponents. Yes, I thought more of the bad calls favored Wisconsin than Indiana here, but it was no different from what home teams typically get in college basketball. Everybody else figures out how to win road games, and Indiana's going to have to figure it out as well if they expect to finish in the top half of the Big Ten.

The Hoosiers still have those big wins over Ohio State and Kentucky, as well as a quality win over Minnesota, and they only have one bad loss (Nebraska), so their Tournament seed is still good at the moment. They'd be a 4-6 seed if the season ended now. But that will start to drop if they can't beat a quality Big Ten team on the road. They'll play Iowa at home tomorrow, but then will go on the road for a pair of tough games - at Michigan and at Purdue.

Wisconsin has won five straight games now to move to 6-3 in Big Ten play. A couple of weeks ago there were media folks that didn't know about advanced stats that talked about Wisconsin as a bubble team, but that has gone away. It would take a remarkable collapse now for the Badgers to fall onto the bubble. They'll play at Penn State on Tuesday, and if they win there will have a huge game next Saturday at home against Ohio State. There's a chance that first place in the Big Ten could be on the line there.

Stony Brook 66, Boston University 59
This was the only game going on late on Friday night and I ended up watching a bit of it. The Stony Brook crowd was great, as crowds tend to be in important conference games in tiny arenas. The difference in this game was the play of Stony Brook inside. They don't have very much height, but their front court is strong and physical, and they scored 26 points in the paint and won the rebounding battle (a 35.7 OR% versus a 24.0 OR% for BU).

It seems to me that a concern for BU is Darryl Partin, who is asked to do everything and tries to make every play, but who isn't quite good enough to pull it off. He takes 37.2% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, which is fifth most of any player in the nation. He's got some good teammates, though, and the team would be better off passing the ball around more. He only has a 47.3 eFG%. When you've got a player like Patrick Hazel who has had success at a higher level (he played for Marquette before transferring) and shooters like Travis Robinson and point guard DJ Irving, you've got other weapons. And on the final chance for BU here, down by 4 with around 30 seconds to go, that the team tried to force the ball to Partin in corner while he was being tightly defended, and he couldn't handle the pass for a turnover.

The America East has a tight three team race. With this win, Stony Brook grabs a one game lead over BU. Vermont is another half game back, though even with BU in the loss column. Stony Brook has now beaten both teams at home, and lost at BU. BU lost at Vermont as well, and will have the return game at home on Wednesday. In other words, all three teams have held serve at home thus far. The regular season title means more in the America East than in other conferences - while the early rounds of the America East tournament rotate (they'll be at Hartford this year), the highest remaining seed gets the tournament title game at home. So if the seeds hold, the second and third placed teams will have to play each other in the semifinals just for the right to play the regular season winner in the finals on their home floor. The home team has won the last four America East tournament title games.

I'm a little hesitant to pick Stony Brook here because of history. The America East has been dominated by BU and Vermont the past few years, with those two teams combining to win six of the last ten tournament titles. But these are not the same programs. Both BU and Vermont have new head coaches. Former Columbia head coach Joe Jones took over at BU after Patrick Chambers took the Penn State job. John Becker took over Vermont after Mike Lonergan took the George Washington job, though Becker had been an assistant at Vermont for five years, so there was less of a transition. But the fact that Stony Brook has already won their home games against Vermont and Boston University, have not lost to anybody else in conference play, are perfect at home this year and are playing as well as any of them means that they are now my pick to win the America East.

Stony Brook's next game will be Wednesday against Binghamton. BU will play Vermont at home on Wednesday.

Alabama Falls Onto The Bubble

2012-01-27T23:53:00.000-05:00

South Carolina 56, Alabama 54
This game was no fluke. If anything, South Carolina should have won by more. The Gamecocks had five more offensive rebounds and six fewer turnovers, and this game was only so close because they shot an atrocious 5-for-31 on threes. Alabama has excellent perimeter defense, and South Carolina is not a good outside shooting team, but still... 5-for-31. I think that rebounding was key, though. Alabama has struggled to rebound the ball all year (they are 10th in the SEC with a 66.6 DR%). Their offense has struggled all year and they don't get a lot of easy baskets. They are spectacular perimeter defenders (their 41.2 eFG% against is third best in the nation), but if they don't get defensive rebounds then it can become very mentally frustrating.

It's not that Alabama is a bad team. In fact, they're rated 22nd in Pomeroy. But they're 0-4 in games decided by six points or less and are now 2-4 in SEC play with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that's slipped to 46th. The Tide are only 1-6 against the RPI Top 50 (the one win came over Wichita State) and now have a bad loss to go with that. Considering that they're playing an "SEC West schedule", a 9-7 SEC record without any really big scalps would not look impressive on Selection Sunday. Even if Alabama finishes 8-2 and gets to 10-6, they'll still enter the SEC tournament without having assured themselves a place in the NCAA Tournament. The good news for them in the short term is that their upcoming schedule is soft, beginning with a game tomorrow at home against Arkansas.

This is the best win South Carolina has had this season by far and they're only 1-4 in SEC play. That said, they've been playing better the past couple of weeks, and I think that Bruce Ellington is a big part of it. He missed the first month of the season while he was playing on the football team, and even after joining the basketball team was struggling to find his way in the rotation after having missed so many practices and games. But the past couple of weeks he's been playing much better. He was only 5-for-14 from the field here, but he's a good ball handler and offensive creator. The Gamecocks will try to win their second straight tomorrow at Ole Miss.

#13 Florida 64, Ole Miss 60
Ole Miss jumped out to a quick 20-4 lead in this game. They have a lot of big bodies and were able to neutralize the Florida bigs for most of the game. But the problem in the second half was that their guards just couldn't keep up with the Gators' backcourt trio of Ervin Walker, Kenny Boynton and Brad Beal. A pair of threes by Kenny Boynton on back-to-back possessions with under five minutes to go were the key baskets that opened this game up.

This would have been a bad loss for Florida. With the comeback win they avoid dropping in the bracket, and they also keep their SEC title hopes alive. They're only one game behind Kentucky in the loss column with a home-and-home remaining. The one concern for Florida isn't so much a concern but an uncertainty: They haven't played Kentucky or Vanderbilt yet (they'll have a home-and-home against each), and their one game this season against Alabama will be on the road. They'll play Mississippi State at home tomorrow, which will mark their toughest game in SEC play so far. They did beat Florida State and Arizona, and they hung close in losses to Syracuse and Ohio State, but we won't know if they can beat an elite team until they actually do it.

Ole Miss came into this game with lovely RPI and Sagarin ELO_CHESS numbers, but with a 5-1 record in games decided by three points or less or in overtime. Their Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings were outside the Top 100. In other words, they are due for some close losses. For the time being they are still 3-3 in SEC play with wins over Mississippi State and Miami (Fl) along with bad losses to Auburn and LSU. They will be at least a bubble team if they can get to 9-7 in SEC play, though I'd bet against it. Their next game will be tomorrow against South Carolina.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee 53, Butler 42
Butler has had a shocking number of horrific offensive efficiency games so far this season. They had a 28.9 eFG% and scored 0.67 PPP. It's the fourth time this year they've had an eFG% under 35%, and the sixth time they've scored less than 0.85 PPP. To put that in perspective, they only hit either of those low marks twice all of last season, with one being the National Title game. The problem continues to be backcourt play, which has been so inconsistent without anybody able to hit a shot. They have four guards that play regular minutes (Nored, Stigall, Hopkins and Aldridge), and they're shooting a combined 28.2% on threes. I give Brad Stevens credit for mixing up his lineup and trying new players, but if you don't have anybody on the perimeter that can hit a shot then there's not a whole lot that the coach can do.

The Butler frontcourt is still scoring efficiently. Even here, Khyle Marshall and Andrew Smith combined for 20 points on 9-for-21 shooting, with 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals and 3 turnovers... not that bad. And Wisconsin-Milwaukee deserves some credit here. They are third in the nation in 3P% against (25.2%). Butler's offense actually has been (other than here) playing better over the past month than they were back in November and early December.

This loss drops Butler to 6-4 and, with a home loss to Cleveland State, basically out of the Horizon regular season race. The key the rest of the season is going to be trying to figure out their offensive issues. They're running out of time before the Horizon League tournament. Butler's next game will be tomorrow at Wisconsin-Green Bay.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee moves only a half game behind Cleveland State with this win. They lost to CSU in Cleveland but will have a return visit on February 14th. With a soft upcoming schedule, it's really not so unlikely that Milwaukee could win a second straight surprise Horizon League regular season title. They'll play Valparaiso at home tomorrow before games against Youngstown State and Wisconsin-Green Bay.

Oklahoma State Takes Down Missouri

2012-01-27T20:49:00.000-05:00

Oklahoma State 79, #2 Missouri 72
Oklahoma State is 5-1 in the past ten years against teams ranked in the Top 5 in the Coaches Poll, and they have won six straight times against a ranked Missouri team. Neither of those stats have anything to do with a game in the 2011-12 season, of course - it's just an interesting stat. In retrospect, though, Oklahoma State is a team that matches up well with this Missouri roster. The Cowboys are a good defense team and have a couple of guys that can shoot the ball. What's killed them all year is the fact that they have a very small front line (particularly with J-P Olukemi out for the season) and are probably the worst rebounding team in the entire Big 12. But Missouri is one of the only Big 12 teams that can't take advantage of that - they play four guards most of the game and aren't great at rebounding the ball either.

Ssuper-frosh Le'Bryan Nash scored 27 points on 12-for-18 shooting, but the difference-maker for Oklahoma State was redshirt freshman Brian Williams, who scored a career-high 22 points on 6-for-11 shooting. Ricardo Ratliffe led Missouri with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting and 12 rebounds.

In the end, I think this was just a brutal defensive performance from Missouri. They haven't been a terrific defense all season long (their offense has been spectacularly efficient, which is why they're playing so well), but considering the quality of their opponent this was their worst defensive performance of the season. And that's why I wouldn't overreact about this game. Every team is going to have a few clunkers every year, and this was one of those for Missouri. One game is not a trend. Missouri is still 5-2 in Big 12 play with wins over Baylor, Texas, Illinois, California and Iowa State, along with this bad loss. With a home-and-home remaining with Kansas, even the Big 12 title is still a possibility. They will play next tomorrow against Texas Tech before heading to Austin to play the Longhorns on Monday.

This is an important win for the Oklahoma State program and will give them some hope for the future, but I don't think it will mean much for any postseason hopes. They are still 3-4 in Big 12 play and 10-10 overall with an iffy loss to Pittsburgh and no big win other than this one. They are 3-10 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 104th. They will play at Texas A&M tomorrow and then at Texas Tech on Tuesday.

St. John's 78, West Virginia 62
Much was made of the fact that St. John's started this game with five freshmen. And yes, it is a good sign for the future that the St. John's freshmen played so well, but this really isn't a new story. St. John's returned one scholarship player from last season (Malik Stith) and he hasn't been starting. All five starters have been new players, four of whom are true freshmen (the fifth, God's Gift Achiuwa) is a Juco transfer. And besides, Achiuwa played 28 minutes in this game, more than two of the "starters". There's nothing more overrated in sports than "starters" - what matters is who plays the most minutes.

Yes, St. John's is an extremely young team that has a bright future, but they're too young to be consistently competitive this year. They'll win a few games in Big East play, but that's the extent of the damage that they'll do. Their other big upset this season came over Cincinnati and they're now 3-6 in conference play (they also beat Providence at home). They'll play at Duke tomorrow before getting back to conference play on Wednesday at DePaul.

This was a putrid performance from West Virginia. They had a 39.2 eFG% and allowed 1.15 PPP to St. John's. To put that in perspective, that's the second most efficient offensive performance from St. John's all season long, even including all of their games against cupcakes. It's also the second most PPP allowed by West Virginia this year, outdone just barely by 1.16 PPP in their loss to Baylor. This was just one of those "clunker" games, like I talked about above with regards to Missouri. The problem is, Missouri can afford a clunker a whole lot more than West Virginia can.

The Mountaineers are now 5-3 in Big East play with wins over Georgetown, Kansas State and Cincinnati along with bad losses to Kent State and St. John's. Their RPI is 16th, though their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is back at 29th. I think they need to win at least four of their final ten regular season games (to get to 9-9) and then win a game in the Big East tournament to earn their spot in the NCAA Tournament. They have to play at Syracuse on Saturday before coming home on Monday to play Pittsburgh.

Notre Dame 55, Seton Hall 42
This was an ugly, ugly game, particularly in the first half. The Irish led 19-18 at halftime, with the two teams combining to shoot 13-for-49 from the field with 16 turnovers. Seton Hall finished this game with only 0.70 PPP, one of the first worst offensive performances by any team in Big East play so far this season (Pitt's 0.56 PPP in that embarrassing 62-39 debacle at Rutgers was the most futile performance so far). Herb Pope, to pick out one player, shot 2-for-16 from the field.

Seton Hall was flying high a couple of weeks ago when they were 4-1 in Big East play, but they've now lost three straight. They are 5-5 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over UConn, West Virginia and Dayton, along with a bad loss to USF. Their RPI is 19th but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 36th. If the season ended now they'd be an NCAA Tournament team, but only narrowly. Unless they get a big scalp or two, they're going to need at least a 9-9 record and a win in the Big East tournament to lock up a Tournament bid. They'll try to bounce back to 5-4 tomorrow at home against Louisville. After that they'll head on the road to play Marquette and UConn.

The Irish, for all their struggles early this season, find themselves 5-3 and in a tie for fourth place in the Big East. They have wins over Syracuse and Louisville to go with this win, along with bad losses to Georgia, Rutgers and Maryland. Their RPI is 82nd and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 68th, but it's hard to ignore that 5-3 record and the win over Syracuse. If they can go just 5-5 the rest of the way and get to 10-8, it will earn them a spot on the Tournament bubble. Their upcoming schedule is pretty rough, though. They'll play at UConn on Sunday followed by a home game against Marquette a week from Saturday.

The Atlantic Ten Tightens Up: 11 Teams Within 1 Game

2012-01-27T01:18:00.000-05:00

Saint Louis 73, Xavier 68
For whatever reason, the Atlantic Ten has been widely ignored this season. Other than Xavier and their brawl, nobody nationally seems to be paying any attention. The A-10 is strong this year - the conference could plausibly get four teams into the Tournament... even five isn't impossible. Not only that, but the fight for the conference regular season title is remarkably tight. Right now, 11 of the 14 teams in the conference are within one game of each other - somewhere between 4-2 and 3-3.

Xavier came into this game looking to bounce back from a loss to Dayton, but they just couldn't find a rhythm. The refs were extremely whistle-happy, putting the players to line for 60 free throws (a FTA/FGA ratio of 0.65). Tu Holloway hit only 4-for-11 from the field, but scored 22 points because he got to the line 14 times and never missed. On the other end of the floor it was Brian Conklin who abused the undersized Xavier front line for 19 points on 6-for-10 shooting.

With this win, Saint Louis is one of the teams tied atop the A-10 with a 4-2 record. They are 16-4 overall with only one bad loss (Loyola-Marymount), though this is probably their best win of the season. Their soft schedule is why despite being ranked in the Top 15 in the country by Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR, their RPI is 41st and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 43rd. If the season ended now they'd be an NCAA Tournament team, but only barely. They don't have any big scalps left on their schedule, but seven of their final ten games will be against the RPI Top 100. So if they can finish strong and finish with something like an 11-5 conference record then, despite the lack of big wins, their computer numbers will be too good for them to get left out on Selection Sunday. Their next game will be Saturday at UMass.

This loss drops them to 4-3 in conference play and 13-7 overall with a 6-6 record against the RPI Top 100, along with that bad loss to Hawaii. Xavier's Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 65th. Remember, they won't get a pass for the games that they lost when they had players suspended. A key opportunity for them to strengthen their resume will come on February 4th when they play at Memphis. Memphis isn't a top team this year, but a win at the Fed Ex Forum would look very nice on a resume (Memphis is 10-1 at home this year, losing to Murray State). Before the Memphis game, Xavier will need to go on the road to play Charlotte and George Washington.

St. Joseph's 77, Dayton 63
This was a tight game most of the night, but a 21-3 run by St. Joe's in the second half blew this game open. Dayton's offense hit a wall during the stretch, going 1-11 from the field with 4 turnovers. The surprise star was Ronald Roberts, who scored the final 15 points for St. Joe's on the way to a career-high 27 points on 10-for-11 shooting. And this was a win that St. Joe's needed, coming off a brutal three-game losing streak that included a bad loss to Pennsylvania.

This win bounced St. Joe's back to 3-3 in conference play and 13-8 overall. That three game losing streak really damaged their resume, however. They were on the bubble two weeks ago, and now even after this win their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 77th. If they can somehow win seven of their final ten games to get to 10-6 and then win a game or two in the A-10 tournament then they will have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but it's a steeper hill to climb than it was before that three game losing streak.

Dayton is still in pretty good shape after this loss. In the past few weeks, after all, they'd taken out St. Louis, Temple, Xavier and La Salle. They also have a win over Alabama along with bad losses to Buffalo, Miami (OH) and St. Bonaventure. The Flyers need to be careful not to stumble in two relatively easy games (against Rhode Island on Saturday and then against Duquesne on Wednesday) before a big road game at St. Louis. If they could pull the upset there then they'd arguably be in the driver's seat for the A-10 regular season title.

Texas 62, Iowa State 55
Texas looked to have this game in hand, and then nearly blew it all in the final minutes. Iowa State went on a 24-12 run to pull within three points with under 30 seconds to go before J'Covan Brown hit a pair of free throws to pull the Texas lead out of reach for good. Despite those free throws, it was a tough day for Brown. He hit only 3-for-16 from the field with 5 turnovers. Overall, the Longhorns only scored 0.93 PPP.

But the story for Texas all season long has been defense - either good or bad. Their length stifled Iowa State in the paint - the Cyclones finished with only a 37.5 eFG% and 0.82 PPP. This season, Texas has three wins in Big 12 play, and in all three have theld their opponent to under 0.85 PPP. In their four losses? They've allows more than 1.08 PPP in every single one. That's a remarkable dichotomy. The stats are pretty strong in non-conference play as well. In their three non-conference losses they allowed more than 1.1 PPP. In their ten non-conference wins they held all but two to under 0.95 PPP.

The Longhorns enter a key stretch now. They head on the road to play Baylor on Saturday, and then will come home to play Missouri on Monday. It's not likely that they'll lose both, but if they do then they'll drop to 3-6 in conference play and there will be a real risk of this young team melting down mentally and ending up in the NIT. If they can win one game or both? Then I expect them to continue improving as we continue toward Selection Sunday.

This game was a missed opportunity for Iowa State to complete the season sweep of Texas. They are 14-6 and 4-3 in conference play, but that one win over Texas is their only real quality win this year and they have a bad loss to Drake. They will forget about this loss in an instant, however, if they can somehow knock off Kansas on Saturday. An upset there plus nine conference wins and a win in the Big 12 tournament would more likely than not be sufficient for an at-large bid.

San Diego State With An Impressive Win At Wyoming

2012-01-25T23:15:00.000-05:00

#12 San Diego State 52, Wyoming 42
Had Wyoming won this game, the media would have told us this was a shocking "upset". Of course, in reality it was Wyoming that was favored by a couple of points in Vegas, and Wyoming that was picked as the favorite by both Sagarin and Pomeroy. And that's before it's pointed out that San Diego State was coming off of two gigantic wins and was overdue for a reality check, and that San Diego State had major travel problems getting to Wyoming, ending up with a 17 hour delay and then a very turbulent flight that got them to Wyoming on the afternoon of the game. I thought Wyoming was an easy pick here, and was shocked at the way San Diego State played as well as they did, particularly in the first half.

And to be fair, Wyoming didn't actually play badly here. They had 8 more offensive rebounds, 4 fewer turnovers and 4 more blocks. The problem was that they had an atrocious 35.7 eFG%, their worst shooting of the season. But it wasn't all shooting. San Diego State's athletic perimeter players just slashed past the Wyoming defense at will. Wyoming is forcing turnovers on 26.7% on defensive possessions in Mountain West play (that's best in the conference) and they continued that here (a 32.8% rate), but if they didn't get a turnover they generally gave up an easy shot. Here's a stat that stands out to me: Wyoming is 37th in the nation with a 44.7 eFG% against, but there's a dichotomy. The three best teams they've played (New Mexico, Colorado State and Denver) have all had an eFG% over 55% Every other team they've played has had an eFG% under 55%. Makes you wonder whether quality perimeter scorers are going to give them trouble all season long.

San Diego State surely is far overdue for a "reality check" loss. They've played great the past couple of weeks, but reality has to catch up to them eventually. They'll play at Colorado State on Saturday, and I'd make the Rams the favorite in that one. But even if they do lose, SDSU will still be in a far better position than they were a couple of weeks ago. Their Pomeroy rating has jumped from 71st to 44th in about two weeks and they now have six quality wins (New Mexico, UNLV, California, Arizona, Wyoming and Long Beach State) and zero bad losses. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS right now is actually 6th in the nation. UNLV is still the favorite in the Mountain West in my opinion, but San Diego State is very much in play for a 4-6 seed on Selection Sunday.

Wyoming is still a very nice 16-4 after this loss, but it's come against a very soft schedule. Their problems against quality teams mean that the only quality win that they have came against Colorado State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 72nd and their RPI is 90th. If the season ended now they wouldn't even be in the bubble discussion. At 2-2 in Mountain West play, I think they've got to get to at least 8-6, and will need at least two wins over the conference's Big Three (including any games played in the conference tournament) to have a real shot on Selection Sunday. Though it's been years since Wyoming has been even close to an at-large bid (the 2002-03 season... maybe longer?), so the fact that we even have to discuss this tells you how good this season has been for them. Their next game will be Saturday at Boise State.

#4 Syracuse 60, Cincinnati 53
Cincinnati had an opportunity here to push Syracuse to a second straight loss, but they were just too inconsistent on offense. Every once in a while Cashmere Wright or Sean Kilpatrick would break down the zone and make things look easy, but more often than not the team would have to settle for long jumpers. The long shots led to long rebounds (13 offensive boards), but 34.4% field goal shooting isn't going to cut it against any quality opponent. Fab Melo was out again with his academic issues, but Jim Boeheim got a nice performance from Rakeem Christmas (9 rebounds, 3 blocks), and by James Southerland off the bench (7 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks). Fab Melo is an excellent defender, but it's clear that they aren't going to drop off a cliff without him like they did two years ago when Arinze Onuaku went down. They have far more front court depth now than they did then.

This was a missed opportunity for Cincinnati. They are now 15-6 overall and 5-3 in the Big East with wins over Georgetown and UConn along with bad losses to Presbyterian and St. John's. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 57th. If the season ended now they'd be right on the Tournament bubble. In my opinion, Cincy needs to get to 10-8 in Big East play and then will need a win in the Big East tournament to have a good chance of an at-large bid on Selection Sunday. The good news is that their upcoming schedule is pretty soft. Their next three games will be against Rutgers, DePaul and St. John's. The Rutgers game is up first, on Saturday.

Syracuse moves to 8-1 in Big East play with this win, a full game clear in the loss column in the conference standings. They'll play West Virginia on Saturday, but the most important game they have coming up will be February 8th against Georgetown. A win there will go a long way toward locking up the Big East regular season title.

#22 Michigan 66, Purdue 64
Mackey Arena has typically been a house of horrors for opposing Big Ten teams, but Purdue has been surprisingly vulnerable there this season. Tim Hardaway, Jr, who's been a streaky shooter all season, got hot here with 19 points on 8-for-15 shooting. Trey Burke did a good job being more of a facilitator for most of the game (6 assists) before attacking the rim to score two huge baskets late in the game. Purdue did have a chance in the final minutes, but they shot 0-for-6 from the field in the final 3:30. It was a frustrating loss for them to be sure.

Purdue has lost four of six to fall to 4-4 in Big Ten play with wins over Temple, Minnesota, Illinois and Miami (Fl), along with bad losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has fallen to 39th. If the season ended now they'd be right on the Tournament bubble. If they can go 5-5 the rest of the way to get to 9-9 then they'll probably be in a good position for an at-large bid. They have an important game coming up on Saturday at a Northwestern team that also is desperate for a big win. After that they'll have a week off before a home game against Indiana.

At 6-2, Michigan is still leading the Big Ten. That said, their +0.07 PPP scoring differential in conference play is only in a tie for third place in the Big Ten, so they're unlikely to stay at the top of the standings for long. In fact, I think their lead will end on Sunday after they play at Ohio State. A week after that they'll have to face a revenge game at Michigan State (the Spartans lost by one point in Ann Arbor last week).

Virginia Tech Bounces Back, Wins At Virginia

2012-01-24T23:54:00.000-05:00

Virginia Tech 47, #17 Virginia 45
Every Seth Greenberg season at Virginia Tech has felt the same. They have a bunch of bad losses, but then manage to get a huge scalp or two in ACC play and put themselves on the Tournament bubble. And the past few years, of course, they've come up just short of an NCAA Tournament bid. But this season, they were digging themselves a deeper hole than usual. After losing their first three games in ACC play I thought that a home game against North Carolina would have been the perfect place for a classic Seth Greenberg upset. The problem was, UNC was coming off that 33 point loss to Florida State and several days of miserable practices, and the Tar Heels came out fired up and escaped with the win. That dropped Virginia Tech to 0-4 before they pulled this one out over in-state rivals Virginia.

This was an ugly offensive performance from Virginia. The Cavaliers don't really have any weapons other than Mike Scott, and the Hokies did an excellent job of containing him (only 10 points scored). Virginia finished with only a 33.7 eFG%, which was their worst shooting performance of the entire season. The 0.82 PPP they scored also marked a season low.

Virginia is still 15-3 after this loss, and they're still in the Top 25 in the human polls, but they only have one quality win (Michigan) and are only 2-2 in ACC play. Their putrid strength of schedule, along with the fact that the ACC is down, means that there isn't that much of a gap between Virginia and the Tournament bubble. Unless they get to 10-6 in ACC play they're going to open the ACC tournament with work left to do to seal their place in the Field of 68. Their next game should be fairly easy, at home on Thursday against Boston College. On Saturday they'll head on the road to play NC State.

This is a very nice win for Virginia Tech, even without the in-state bragging rights, but they're going to need a couple more of these to get back to the Tournament bubble. It's their first quality win of the season and they have bad losses to Wake Forest and Boston College. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is way back in 74th. They are rated as a Top 50 team by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, so they're good enough to make a run at the bubble, but the dynamics of the ACC will make that difficult. There just aren't a lot of opportunities for big wins, and far too many chances for bad losses (particularly for a team as inconsistent as the Hokies). They have a very important game tomorrow against BYU.

Wisconsin 67, #25 Illinois 63
Yes, Illinois was ranked and at home while Wisconsin was neither, but Wisconsin was actually favored in this game in Vegas. This was an interesting battle between two Big Ten stars who never actually guarded each other. Meyers Leonard dominated the paint against an undersized Wisconsin team, scoring 16 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and putting the entire Wisconsin front court in foul trouble. For Wisconsin, Jordan Taylor (though he struggled shooting) took over late in the second half. It was the first time all season that I've seen him look like he played last season. He also hit 5-for-6 at the free throw line in the final 30 seconds to put the game away (which was impressive when you consider that the Badgers as a team were a putrid 5-for-12 at the free throw line prior to that).

I didn't understand why so many people were so quick to bury Wisconsin after that three-game losing streak. Their defense is so strong, and did anybody really believe that a team with this many shooters would continue hitting 10-15% of their threes for the rest of the season? Too many people confuse bad shooting with bad offense. They've now won four straight games and are 5-3 in Big Ten play with a big home game against Indiana coming up Wednesday. They will only need to reach 9-9 in conference play to basically lock up an NCAA Tournament bid.

A week ago Illinois had just beaten Ohio State to move to 4-1 in Big Ten play. But now they've lost two straight and have fallen right back to the bubble. They have wins this season over Gonzaga, Minnesota and Northwestern to go with that win over Ohio State, along with a bad loss to Penn State. Getting to 9-9 in conference play will probably be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll try to move to 5-3 on Saturday at Minnesota.

Minnesota 75, Northwestern 52
Northwestern has struggled recently with depth. That was allayed a bit with Alex Marcotullio back in the lineup, but it didn't matter here. This game was over in the first half. Minnesota scored the first 11 points and was up at 30-9 at one point. Northwestern actually missed their first 14 shots from the field. Julian Welch was the offensive star for Minnesota, hitting 7-for-8 from the field with 6 rebounds and 5 assists.

The issue for Northwestern has been that their defense has really been decimated by Big Ten offenses this season. They have allowed 1.18 PPP the past three games and 1.08 this season in Big Ten play. Adjusting for strength of schedule, Pomeroy rates their defensive efficiency worst in conference play among all Big Ten teams. It's worth noting that they played three Top 100 teams in non-conference play (Baylor, Seton Hall and LSU), and they allowed 1.13 PPP in those games as well. Their defense just seems to struggle with staying in front of athletic teams. Bill Carmody doesn't get elite athletes at Northwestern, and so defense has historically been a problem there, but this year seems worse than normal.

Northwestern is now only 12-7 overall and 2-5 in Big Ten play with wins over Michigan State and Seton Hall and no particularly bad losses. Their computer numbers are still fine (their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 33rd), but those won-loss records are a problem. It's just hard to imagine Northwestern earning an at-large bid if they can't at least get to 8-10 in conference play. To not fall too far behind that pace, their game on Saturday against Purdue will be a near-must win.

Minnesota lost their first four Big Ten games, but have now won three straight, including this win and a win over Indiana. They also beat Virginia Tech earlier this season, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 38th. If the season ended now, honestly, they'd probably make the NCAA Tournament. The problem for them is that their remaining schedule is downright brutal, beginning with a game Saturday at Michigan State. If they can get to 9-9 in conference play that will probably be sufficient for an at-large bid. But looking at their schedule, I just find it unlikely that they'll get there.

W-7 BP68

2012-01-22T03:07:00.000-05:00

It's been a busy week at the top of the bracket. I've had the same four teams as 1 seeds since April, and I talked this week for the first time about switching it up by dropping North Carolina out due to the Dexter Strickland injury. But I decided to keep them there because Duke hasn't impressed lately either, and I'm not going to become convinced that Duke is going to win the ACC until I see UNC struggle without Strickland. The core of their team is still the front court and Kendall Marshall.

You might ask why I think North Carolina is better than Kansas, and the answer is that I don't. I think Kansas is better. The problem is that Kansas has much, much more competition than UNC does. They have to get past Missouri, Baylor and Texas. The odds of Kansas failing to win their conference's regular season and/or tournament title are higher than for UNC, despite Kansas being the better team. That's why I still have Kansas on the second line.

I really struggled filling in those 12 seeds. Once again there is a clear dichotomy. All the teams I have seeded as a 10 or better seem like legitimate Tournament teams, and I feel confident having all of them in the field. But the at-large teams on the 12 line? Not good. And the collection of the best teams outside the Tournament? Putrid. I had to drop Northern Iowa out, and so I decided to put in Iowa State in their place. But I thought this evening that I'd be dropping Stanford out as well, and just couldn't find anybody to put in their place. NC State? Minnesota? Marshall? Eh. I'm leaving Stanford there for now.

But as I said last week, this is the thinnest bubble I can ever recall at this point in the season. I honestly think that if the season ended now, the Selection Committee would only have serious debate on filling the final four or five spots, and they'd only have around 10-12 teams to choose from. Normally the bubble is two or three times that size at this early stage. I think that's just a random quirk more than anything else.

Among the automatic bids, I switched my pick in the MEAC, putting in Norfolk State for Morgan State.

I started the Full Bubble last week, and so I will be eliminating teams each new bracket the rest of the way. This bracket? I only eliminated four teams: Rice, Lehigh, College of Charleston and North Dakota State. There are a couple dozen teams that are almost assuredly going to be eliminated in the next two or three weeks. Once they collect the losses that I expect them to get, they'll be out. Last week I started the Full Bubble with 83 teams not in the Field of 68 that had a chance at an at-large bid. With four teams eliminated that's down to 79. It will be down to around 8-10 on Selection Sunday.

Below are my disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. Florida
2. Georgetown

3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Texas
3. Missouri
3. Michigan State

4. Baylor
4. Indiana
4. Marquette
4. Vanderbilt

5. UConn
5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Alabama
5. Wisconsin

6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Virginia
6. Saint Louis
6. Michigan

7. Louisville
7. San Diego State
7. West Virginia
7. CREIGHTON (MVC)

8. St. Mary's
8. Purdue
8. Kansas State
8. Illinois

9. Wichita State
9. Florida State
9. New Mexico
9. Seton Hall

10. BYU
10. Cincinnati
10. Dayton
10. Xavier

11. Southern Miss
11. California
11. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
11. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

12. Northwestern
12. Mississippi State
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Stanford
12. Iowa State

13. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. OHIO (MAC)

14. BUTLER (HORIZON)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

15. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Marshall, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, La Salle, UMass, St. Joseph's, South Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Drexel, VCU, Central Florida, Missouri State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Maryland, Duquesne, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Providence, Rutgers, Villanova, Weber State, Nebraska, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Georgia State, UW-Milwaukee, Akron, Drake, Illinois State, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington State, Auburn, Tennessee

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Charlotte, Fordham, George Washington, DePaul, St. John's, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, UTEP, Tulane, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Loyola-Maryland, Ball State, Buffalo, Kent State, Indiana State, Air Force, Boise State, TCU, Wagner, Georgia, South Carolina, South Dakota State, Denver, Utah State

UNLV Blows Out New Mexico

2012-01-22T00:52:00.000-05:00

#20 UNLV 80, New Mexico 63
This match-up was an absolute blowout in the second half. This was a sloppy game (the teams combined for 33 offensive rebounds to only 30 defensive rebounds, as well as 35 turnovers), but UNLV had 11 steals and 6 blocks, both of which allowed to get out on fast breaks for easy baskets. With the crowd behind them, New Mexico seemed to just get demoralized. Their defense has been picked apart in consecutive games now by San Diego State (1.26 PPP) and UNLV (1.21 PPP). It's the first time New Mexico has allowed greater than 1.2 PPP in consecutive games since February of 2007, part of a season where they went only 4-12 in Mountain West play.

I don't want to overreact too much to just two games. They had held opponents to under 1 PPP in 14 of 17 games this season prior to this two-game performance. 17 games is a much larger sample size than two. New Mexico is still 15-4 with wins over St. Louis, Wyoming and Missouri State, along with bad losses to Santa Clara and New Mexico State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is stuck around 40th, but their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings are going to stay near 30th. They're not a Tournament lock by any means, but I still think that they'll be safely in the Field of 68 on Selection Sunday. They will try to bounce back on Wednesday against Colorado State.

UNLV has, in my opinion, really firmed up their spot atop the Mountain West. In the actual standings they're a game back of San Diego State, but their remaining game against the Aztecs will be at the Thomas & Mack Center, and overall I just think they're a much better team. If you buy the mainstream media's argument that San Diego State is better because they won head-to-head, please read my post about that game here. The Runnin' Rebs have a very manageable schedule over the next week as well. They head on the road to play Boise State on Wednesday and Air Force on Saturday.

#15 Mississippi State 78, Vanderbilt 77, OT
This was a pretty surprising upset, particularly after Vanderbilt opened a double-digit first half lead. Both teams shot over 50% behind the arc, and Renardo Sidney probably had his best game at Mississippi State, despite scoring only 9 points. Sidney was very active on both sides of the floor. He was working so hard that Rick Stansbury called a couple of timeouts that looked to me like a chance to give Sidney a rest so he wouldn't have to be subbed out (Sidney is too out-of-shape to play more than few minutes in a row without wearing out). The fact that MSU was able to hit all of those outside shots was a big advantage as well. Festus Ezeli is looking close to 100%, and he would have made it hard for MSU to get easy shots around the basket. That outside shooting meant that the Bulldogs only had to get 43.6% of their points on two-point shots, well under their 54.6% season average.

This is perhaps a reality-check loss for Vanderbilt. They came in here on an eight game winning streak, and only two days ago earned a very nice road win at Alabama. I suppose they were overdue for a loss. I still think that Vanderbilt has proven that with Ezeli back close to full strength they're back to being an elite team. They got upset here, but I still do believe that they and Florida are the top two contenders to Kentucky in the SEC. They are 4-1 in SEC play now, and will play next on Tuesday against Tennessee.

This is a huge upset victory for Mississippi State. It moves them to 3-2, knowing that they still have several tough road games ahead and will need to get to 9-7 to be in a good position for an at-large bid heading into the SEC tournament. They will play LSU on Wednesday and then at Florida next Saturday.

#21 Louisville 73, Pittsburgh 62
You had to figure that if Pittsburgh was going to get out of their slump it would come here. Travon Woodall was back in the lineup (though he was fairly ineffective), Pitt has been playing better the few games (even though it hasn't translated into wins), they had College Gameday in town, and they were playing a reeling Louisville team that had lost five of seven and beaten just one team in the Pomeroy Top 125 since December 2nd (how they've continued to stay ranked is mind-boggling to me). But instead they were just... eh. Their offense was still mediocre (having a 100% effective Woodall would've changed that) and their defense allowed way too many easy baskets against a Louisville team that has struggled badly on offense against the rest of the Big East.

This is Pitt's 8th straight loss, and they fall to 0-7 in Big East play. This is just a lost season for them. Everything that could go wrong is going wrong. Mathematically, Pitt could go and win 9 of their next 11 Big East games and get on the bubble, which is I'm not going to eliminate them from at-large contention when I publish my next bracket in an hour or two, but realistically that's not going to happen. At this point, all they can concern themselves with is trying to get that first win on Wednesday when they get Providence at home. Providence has lost their last 18 Big East road games, so even Pitt should find a way to win that one... you'd think. Their next game after that will be next Saturday at home against Georgetown.

This is a big win for Louisville because of those stats I listed two paragraphs above. Despite that #21 next to their name, a loss here would have dropped them perilously close to the Tournament bubble. Instead they're back to 3-4 in Big East play with a home game against Villanova coming up on Wednesday. A 9-9 Big East record and a win in the Big East tournament should be enough to send them to the NCAA Tournament.

#1 Goes Down: Notre Dame Beats Syracuse

2012-01-21T23:41:00.010-05:00

Notre Dame 67, #1 Syracuse 58
The big news prior to this game was that Fab Melo wouldn't be joining Syracuse for this road trip. It's been reported, though not confirmed by Melo or the school, that it's a lingering academic issue. Regardless, the loss of Melo caused a lot of people to pick the Irish as an upset pick this morning. The thing is, as important as Melo is to this team, I don't think he's the reason that they lost. Melo is dominant defensively in the paint, and he anchors the zone, but any zone can be defeated by a hot-shooting opponent hitting threes. Melo isn't going to defend three-point shooters. And it was Notre Dame that hit 6 of their first 9 threes, opening up an 18 point lead late in the first half.

The Irish shooting slowed down in the second half, of course, but the problem for Syracuse is that they're not an explosive scoring team. They are great at transition offense, but if you can avoid turnovers and get back on defense, the Orange aren't going to score that many points on you. That's a problem when Syracuse has to try to make up an 18 point deficit. The Irish did commit 17 turnovers and allowed 9 steals, but both of those numbers are below the Syracuse season average (18.6 and 10.1, respectively). The Irish also did a good job of getting back on defense, limiting the layups and dunks. And the forwards that got extra minutes with Melo out all seemed to play fine. James Southerland, for example, had 15 points on 5-for-10 shooting. The problem was the backcourt: Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters combined for 19 points on 6-for-25 shooting in 82 minutes.

Of course, the reality is that this type of game was inevitable. In modern college basketball, it's nearly impossible for a team to go through a major conference undefeated. The fact that the Big East is down this year kept Syracuse undefeated longer than a team like Ohio State, but it was inevitable that they were going to lose to somebody. They're still in the driver's seat in the Big East and for a 1 seed. A share of the Big East regular season title and the Big East tournament title will earn the Orange a 1 seed in March. Their next game will be Monday night at Cincinnati.

This win pushes Notre Dame to 4-3 in Big East play and gives them a huge scalp, but their only other quality win came over Louisville and they have bad losses to Maryland and Georgia. It's hard to conceive of them having a shot at an at-large bid with anything less than a 10-8 Big East record, so they've still got plenty to do to work their way onto the bubble. Unfortunately, their upcoming schedule is brutal, with three tough road match-ups in their next four games, beginning with trip to Seton Hall on Wednesday.

Washington State 77, California 75
It's been a good weekend for Washington State, and a bad one for the Pac-12 conference. Just two days after upsetting Stanford, Wazzu came back today and upset California. They kept this game close by minimizing Cal's strength - their outside shooting (40.9% for the season, 30% here). I also really liked what Ken Bone did in the final ten seconds. So many coaches and announcers act like committing a foul when you're winning or tied late (not including "fouls to give") is some outrageous act, like the way Troy Aikman acts anytime an NFL coach does the correct thing and goes for it on 4th down (statistically, NFL teams should punt about 1/5th as often as they really do - all NFL coaches are overly risk averse). But the reality is that you can use fouls to your advantage. In this case, California got the ball back down by three with 9 seconds to go. Ken Bone had his guys commit a foul with 6 seconds to go to send them to the line. It's absolutely the correct strategy. In this case it nearly backfired because Justin Cobbs hit the first and missed the second, followed by Cal getting the offensive board and giving Jorge Gutierrez a chance for a three at the buzzer. But he missed the three and Wazzu won. but that's what tends to happen because so much stuff has to happen for that strategy to backfire that the odds are in your favor.

California has been the best team in the Pac-12 so far this season, but that doesn't mean much this season. This loss only drops them to 16-5 overall and 6-2 in the Pac-12, but they have zero RPI Top 50 wins and now have a pair of bad losses (Oregon State and Washington State). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall to around 35th after this loss. I think that they need to get to 13-5 in conference play to be confident about an at-large bid. If they finish 12-6 or worse then they're going to enter the Pac-12 tournament with work left to do. They have eight days until their next game, at home against Stanford.

Washington State has picked up two straight nice wins, but those are their only good wins of the season and they have a slew of bad losses (Utah, UC-Riverside, Oregon, Oklahoma, Washington and Colorado). They are also only 11-8 overall and 3-4 in the Pac-12. They will play at Arizona on Thursday, and even if they pulled another upset there they would still be several more wins in a row away from the Tournament bubble.

Colorado 64, Arizona 63
This was a brutal shooting game for Arizona. They hit a horrendous 3-for-20 behind the arc, including a Kevin Parrom miss at the buzzer that would have won the game. But Arizona has been streaky all season. They are shooting a very good 37.9% of their threes this season, but have hit below 20% four different times now. Streaky play can be an advantage when you're in an elite conference and can absorb some losses in exchange for a few big scalps. But in a Pac-12 conference where there are basically no quality wins to be had, and all sorts of potential bad losses? That's not going to work.

The Wildcats absolutely can't afford to finish worse than 12-6 in conference play to have a plausible shot at an at-large bid, and this loss drops them to 4-3. They have no wins against the RPI Top 50, and now have bad losses to both Oregon and Colorado. Their RPI is 68th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will likely fall to around 80th after this loss. Next week they will head home to play the two Washington teams, and then the week after that will head on the road to play the two Northern California teams.

This win pushes Colorado to 5-2, which puts them only a half game out of the lead in the Pac-12 standings. An at-large bid is also not impossible for them if they can get to 12-6 or better, though realistically they've probably got to win at least 13 Pac-12 games and then need to do well in the Pac-12 tournament to get onto the bubble.

Florida State Ends Duke's 45-Game Home Winning Streak

2012-01-21T21:39:00.000-05:00

Florida State 76, #4 Duke 73
Florida State's offense has been streaky all season long. They scored above 1.05 PPP for the first four games of the year, causing a lot of people (including me) to wonder if their offense had turned the corner. That seemed to be a silly thought for much of the past six or seven weeks, however, as they've had some truly atrocious performances. They had a combined 0.80 PPP in games against Harvard and Princeton. Just two weeks ago they had a 39.5 eFG% and 0.87 PPP in a blowout loss to Clemson. But in the past week? They've knocked off North Carolina and Duke, scoring 1.15 PPP in those two games. I'm fairly sure that no team has ever played that badly in losses to a pair of Ivy League teams while playing that well in a pair of wins over North Carolina and Duke in the same season.

As well as FSU played, Duke doesn't go away easily at home, and it looked like they sent the game to overtime after Austin Rivers attacked the basket and scored with 4.9 seconds to go. But Luke Loucks did a great job of pushing the ball down the floor and hitting Michael Snaer for the game winning three, which left his hand only a couple of tenths of a second before the clock ran out.

This game was particularly important for Duke because of the fact that North Carolina found out yesterday that Dexter Strickland had torn his ACL and will be out for the rest of the season. A strong performance by Duke would have allowed them to make a really good case that they should be the new favorite in the ACC. But at this point? I'm keeping UNC as the #1 until they prove otherwise. Duke could have forced my hand and they didn't. I want to see what the Tar Heels look like without Strickland. Duke will play next on Wednesday at Maryland.

For a while, Florida State was looking like they might be heading for the NIT (though I never dropped them below a 10 seed in my bracket). That has obviously turned around over the past seven days. They now have wins over North Carolina and Duke to go with their win over Virginia Tech and bad losses to Princeton and Clemson. They are 4-1 in ACC play and have an RPI that is up to 26th, and I expect their Sagarin ELO_CHESS to be up around 50th. These two big wins will go a long way on Selection Sunday. I think that a 9-7 ACC finish plus a win in the ACC tournament will have them in a good position for an at-large bid. They'll try to avoid a letdown game on Wednesday at Wake Forest.

Tennessee 60, #11 UConn 57
These two teams are heading in opposite directions. UConn has been struggling ever since Ryan Boatright has been unable to play due to academic issues. Tennessee, meanwhile, has gotten a huge boost from the newly-eligible Jarnell Stokes, who played in his third collegiate game here. This was the first career start for Stokes, and he responded by leading the Vols in both points (16) and rebounds (12). For UConn, their issue is that without Ryan Boatright they struggle to create offense. Shabazz Napier is a decent point guard, but he's inconsistent. And as good of a scorer as Jeremy Lamb is, he's not good at setting up his teammates for points. They only had 8 assists as a team in this game, with Napier getting half of them.

UConn is now 14-5 overall and 4-3 in Big East play, but they've lost four of six and have a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is probably going to fall out of the Top 40. They have enough good wins (Florida State, West Virginia and Harvard) that they wouldn't be on the bubble if the season ended now, but they're only a loss or two away. The good news is that they have eight days now to get ready for a relatively winnable home game against Notre Dame. The bad news is that their next four games after that will be at Georgetown, vs Seton Hall, at Louisville and at Syracuse. If they even win two of those four games I'll be surprised.

This win pushes Tennessee to 9-10 overall. They have wins over Florida and UConn to go with bad losses to Austin Peay, Oakland, Charleston and Georgia. They're also only 1-3 in SEC play. In other words, this is a nice win, but let's not pretend that Tennessee is anywhere near the Tournament bubble. Their next game will be Tuesday at Vanderbilt.

Wyoming 70, Colorado State 51
I hate doing this rant on so many Mountain West posts, but seriously, whoever in that conference is responsible for having most of their games on The Mtn, with most of the rest on Versus/NBC Sports or CBS College Sports should be fired. There are so many great games in this league, and almost nobody knows about it. I'm one of the few people that gets CBS College Sports and Versus/NBC Sports, but I don't get The Mtn, and having to grab some fuzzy illegal internet feed is a disincentive to watch. Neither of these teams would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, of course, but both have a serious shot to make a run at a fourth NCAA Tournament bid out of the Mountain West.

The difference in this game was, without question, rebounding. Wyoming came into this game in last place in the Mountain West with a 17.0 OR% in conference play. Here? A 37.5 OR% (12 offensive boards). Leonard Washington dominated with 5 offensive rebounds to go with 32 points on 12-for-16 shooting. Colorado State couldn't shoot the ball either. They came into this game rated 4th and 8th in the nation in 3P% (43.7%) and eFG% (53.9%), respectively. They shot 5-for-17 on threes here with a 46.4 eFG%.

The good news for Colorado State is that this was a road game. They'll get a chance to take revenge against Wyoming in Fort Collins on February 18th. They're still without any big wins this season, but they don't have any bad losses either. If they can get to 8-6 or better in conference play and can win at least two games against New Mexico, San Diego State and/or UNLV, then they'll enter the Mountain West tournament with plausible at-large hopes. The first of their games against the Mountain West's Big Three will be on Wednesday at New Mexico. Next Saturday they'll play at home against San Diego State, which will be a very winnable game (they'll probably only be a 2-3 point underdog).

Wyoming quietly moves to 16-3 overall with this win. This is their best win of the season, and they have two iffy losses (Wisconsin-Green Bay and Denver), but 16-3 is still 16-3. The Selection Committee can be wowed by overwhelming won-loss records. Let's say Wyoming goes 8-6 in conference play and wins a pair of games over the conference's Big Three, and then wins a game in the Mountain West tournament - they'd be 23-9 overall out of what is likely to be the 6th rated conference. That will be hard to ignore. At the very least it would put them in the debate on Selection Sunday. Their next game will be Tuesday against a San Diego State team that is overdue for a letdown game off of two massive wins. Expect a Wyoming "upset", and then the at-large hype really starting to heat up.

Missouri Beats Baylor, Kansas Beats Texas

2012-01-21T19:25:00.000-05:00

#5 Missouri 89, #3 Baylor 88
This was a wild game played at a frenetic pace, even if it was a bit sloppy (37 combined turnovers). At 77 possessions, this was the fastest-paced game Mizzou has played all season, and one possession short of the fastest-paced game Baylor has played. Ricardo Ratliffe had 27 points on 11-for-14 shooting, but he is a player who creates little of his own offense. So much of scoring comes off layups/dunks set up by the Baylor guards. And Flip Pressey was the star in this game, scoring 18 points with 7 assists and 6 steals. Baylor's Pierre Jackson had an excellent game in his own right (20 points, 15 assists), with many of those assists setting up Quincy Miller, who had a career-high 29 points.

Baylor is 17-2, though they've lost their last two games. I wouldn't say that it's panic time seeing as how both losses came to excellent teams (the other loss was to Kansas), but they do have clear deficiencies that need to be fixed if they're going to be a Final Four contender. The biggest, of course, being defensive rebounding. With their athletes, there's no excuse to be so bad at defensive rebounding. It's all about discipline. Their upcoming schedule eases up a little, though. They'll play at Oklahoma on Tuesday and then at home against Texas.

This was a statement win for Missouri, for sure. While I think that Kansas has been the best Big 12 team so far, I think it's fair to say that Missouri has been second best. Here is the Big 12 ranked by PPP margin:

+0.26 Kansas
+0.20 Missouri
+0.12 Baylor
+0.03 Iowa State
-0.02 Texas
-0.05 Kansas State
-0.09 Oklahoma State
-0.12 Oklahoma
-0.15 Texas A&M
-0.22 Texas Tech.

For Mizzou, those two games upcoming against Kansas are looming. They'll get Kansas at home on February 4th, and then will head to Kansas for a game on February 25th. Their next game will be on Wednesday at Oklahoma State.

#7 Kansas 69, Texas 66
Sometimes it feels like Texas plays best when Rick Barnes gets out of the way. Early in this game the team looked very confused, like they were over-thinking it. Kansas opened up an early 15 point lead. But as the game went along, Texas just started playing basketball - guys were making their own plays and breaking free of the system. And this Texas team has some flat-out scorers, none better than J'Covan Brown (24 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds here). A lot of credit also has to go to Clint Chapman, whose 15 points and 9 rebounds don't tell how important he was in the paint, particularly on defense (he had 4 blocks).

There's a lot of talk about "good" Tyshawn Taylor and "bad" Tyshawn Taylor because of how inconsistent he can be. But if that's true then they had "good" Tyshawn Taylor here. He scored 22 points on 7-for-13 shooting and led the Jayhawks with four assists. Jeff Withey also gave the team a lot of good minutes, scoring 12 points by getting to the line nine times.

This is the 7th loss Texas has had this season, and all but one have been close in the final couple of minutes. You would think that with a cold-blooded assassin like J'Covan Brown they'd actually be a "clutch" team, though obviously they're very young overall. Still, I think it would be a huge mistake to count out this team. Every year we see teams that struggle with their won/loss record early in the season and turn it on in February and March, and it's hard to think of a team that's a better candidate for that profile than this year's Texas Longhorns. They have an important home game coming up on Tuesday against Iowa State. A loss there would drop them to 2-5 in Big 12 play with a road game at Baylor looming.

Kansas moves to 5-0 in Big 12 play with this win, and they've dominated for the most part (as I said higher up in this post, they're outscoring opponents by a mind-boggling 0.26 PPP). But that said, their conference schedule so far has been soft, and it's going to get harder as we move into February. They play Texas A&M next, on Monday. In February, however, they'll have to play a home-and-home with Missouri and also will head to Baylor and Kansas State.

West Virginia 77, Cincinnati 74, OT
This was a very emotional and hard-fought game. Neither team could open up a big lead at any point. It's always a bit meaningless to try to draw large conclusions from a game like this, where either team could won if a few extra breaks had gone their way. If there's one thing that stood out to me it's that West Virginia managed to beat a quality team like Cincy despite a horrific performance from Truck Bryant, who finished 2-for-16 from the field and also committed a terrible turnover late in the game that gave Cincy a final chance - with the ball with 20 seconds to go he tried to push it up the floor instead of just standing in place and getting fouled, and he turned it over.

From Cincinnati's perspective, I'm wondering why Sean Kilpatrick doesn't get more of the ball early in games. Late, he's always the one taking and making the biggest shots, yet he never is a big part of the offense before the final minutes. In regulation he only took 9 shots and had 1 assist. But even with this loss, Cincinnati is still 5-2 in Big East play with a home game coming up against Syracuse on Monday, in a game where Fab Melo will not be playing because of (reportedly) academic issues. They have wins over Georgetown, UConn and Pittsburgh, along with bad losses to Presbyterian and St. John's. They'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, though not with a huge margin of error. I think that they need to get to 10-8 in conference play and then need to win a game in the Big East tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.

This win moves West Virginia to 5-2 as well. They have victories over Georgetown, Kansas State and now Cincinnati, with a bad loss to Kent State. They'd be in better position than Cincinnati if they finish 9-9 in Big East play, but I think a 9-9 West Virginia team would still enter the Big East tournament with work left to do. That said, looking at their remaining schedule, it's hard to see West Virginia winning fewer than 11 games. I think they'll be in the Field of 68 with plenty of room to spare. Their next game will be Wednesday at St. John's.

Is Dayton The Atlantic Ten Favorite?

2012-01-21T18:04:00.000-05:00

Dayton 87, Xavier 72
Xavier actually shot 8-for-14 in this game behind the arc, but it didn't make a difference. They were throttled here by Dayton. Kevin Dillard was the star for Dayton, scoring 16 points with 9 assists. I thought that Xavier turned themselves into too much of a two-man team. Tu Holloway is their superstar, of course, but somebody else other than Mark Lyons has to be a big part of the offense. Dayton focused their entire defense on stopping those two.

With this win, Dayton moves to 4-1 and first place in the Atlantic Ten standings. They're clearly playing far better than they were during out-of-conference play and they already have wins over Temple, St. Louis and Xavier - the three teams that were supposed to be the A-10's Big Three. Dayton is now a full game up in the standings over all of them. So is Dayton the favorite to win the conference now?

There are stats working for and against the argument that Dayton is the favorite. The arguments for are obviously that they've already beaten their three top contenders. Also, the fact that they've had the toughest in-conference strength of schedule of any A-10 team thus far and are still in first. Working against them? The wins over St. Louis and Xavier were at home (and one went into overtime), and the win over Temple was a classic letdown game for the Owls just three days after knocking off Duke. In conference play, despite being 4-1, they are only outscoring opponents by 0.05 PPP. Xavier is best in the conference, outscoring opponents by 0.15 PPP so far.

In my view, Dayton isn't the favorite yet, and the reason is expectations. They've been the aggressor, knocking off higher-rated teams. Now they become the target. What happens on Wednesday when they head on the road to play St. Joe's? I think Dayton will lose that game, honestly. Until Dayton proves that they can "take care of business" and win games that they're supposed to win, I'm not going to pick them as the favorites. And if you don't think that a team that beats big time opponents can't struggle to mid-level opponents when the expectations are different, go talk to an Indiana Hoosiers fans. For the time being, Temple remains my pick.

Xavier is still 4-2 in conference play after this loss, but that brutal six-game stretch after the Cincinnati brawl is going to be an albatross on their Tournament resume all season long. They have wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Purdue along with bad losses to Hawaii and Oral Roberts. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall to close to 60th after this loss. I think they have to finish at least 11-5 in conference play to stay in a good position for an at-large bid. The Musketeers have a great chance for a big win on Wednesday against St. Louis.

#2 Kentucky 77, Alabama 71
Sooner or later, people are going to realize that Kentucky has not at all played like the #2 team in the country for the past few weeks. They had a few close games lately, including this one. And honestly, they probably should have lost this game. They got some home court reffing down the stretch, particularly the way they got quite a few bailout foul calls when they were struggling with the Alabama press. Kentucky also hit eight straight free throws in the final minute, constantly keeping Alabama just more than a possession away from tying the game up. That said, Kentucky did get a nice balanced effort today, with six different players scoring in double-digits. Anthony Davis, as he always does, locked down the paint (6 offensive rebounds, 4 blocks, 4 steals).

For all Kentucky's struggles, they do have those Kansas and North Carolina wins still on their resume, and they've taken advantage of a soft schedule to run up 11 straight wins. And with a road game at Georgia up next, on Tuesday, they should keep on winning. Their schedule will get a lot tougher when they hit February, however. That's when they'll play a home-and-home against both Florida and Vanderbilt.

Alabama, meanwhile, has lost three straight games to fall to 2-3 in SEC play. They don't have any particularly bad losses, but they don't have a wonderful set of big wins either (Wichita State and Purdue). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS had slid to 32nd even before this game (not that they'll drop for losing at Kentucky). They're not as far from the bubble as they should be, and need a few wins soon to move things in the right direction. They'll play next on Wednesday at South Carolina.

Arkansas 66, #19 Michigan 64
This wasn't an upset by any means, despite the fact that the mainstream media is telling us that it is. Arkansas is underrated, Michigan is overrated, and Arkansas is much better at home than on the road. Vegas had Arkansas as anywhere between a 1 and 2 point favorite (depending on the location). And watching this game, you could see that the Arkansas players just wanted this game more - they played with a level of intensity that Michigan didn't match until the final minutes. The individual player that stood out the most, though, was Trey Burke. Burke had 13 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, and he scored 7 of those points in the final 4:30. That said, I don't want to re-hash what I said here, but the one flaw in Burke's game is that he's not a great passer. On the final couple of possessions, Mike Anderson sent his entire defense to try to stop Burke, knowing that he wasn't going to pass. That needs to be improved, particularly with the array of quality outside shooters that John Beilein always puts out on the floor.

Michigan is still in a tie for first place in the Big Ten at 5-2, though I don't expect that to last too long. Despite their upset of Michigan State earlier this week, I still think MSU is better, and Ohio State is still the team to beat in the conference. Michigan's schedule picks up a bit in the next couple of weeks, too. They'll play next on Tuesday at Purdue, and then will play at Ohio State next Sunday.

Arkansas has been perfect at home this season. They have wins over Michigan and Mississippi State at home, too. The problem is that they haven't proven yet that they can score enough points to win on the road. In fact, they haven't won a true road game all season long. And no, an 8-8 SEC record (particularly with an "SEC West" schedule) is not going to be enough for an at-large bid. They have a home game coming up on Wednesday against Auburn, but then they'll head on the road to play Alabama next Saturday. They also will still have true road games against LSU, Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Auburn the rest of the way. In my view, they've got to win at least three of those five games to have a real shot at an at-large bid. The Selection Committee needs to see that you can win away from your home gym.

North Carolina Beats Virginia Tech, Loses Dexter Strickland

2012-01-21T15:06:00.000-05:00

#8 North Carolina 82, Virginia Tech 68
This was an impressive win for North Carolina. They obviously came in highly motivated off of that embarrassing loss to Florida State, but Virginia Tech was desperate for a big win as well. And Virginia Tech does this every year - they have bad losses and then come home and knock off North Carolina or Duke. It's why they end up on the bubble every year. And Virginia Tech did lead this game for most of the first half, and by as much as eight points in the second half before a 19-0 North Carolina run opened the game up. But while this was a nice win, it came at a heavy, heavy cost. Dexter Strickland got hurt, and the team found out yesterday that it was a torn ACL and he'll be done for the year. With Leslie McDonald out for the year also, the Tar Heels backcourt is now very thin behind Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock. It's time for true freshman PJ Hairston, who was a blue chip recruit, to step up and give the team big minutes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Justin Watts getting a bump in minutes as well.

It seems like a lock every season that Virginia Tech will mix bad losses with huge wins and will get their way onto the NCAA Tournament, But this season, I'm starting to wonder whether they'll even be able to get onto the bubble. They've already blown their home games against North Carolina and Florida State, so they've only got the Duke and Virginia games (as well as a non-conference game against BYU) left to get a big scalp. More importantly, they're now 0-4 in a down ACC, with an 0-5 record against the RPI Top 75. They'll need to get to at least 8-8 in conference play to have any chance for an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament. They'll play a road game at Virginia tomorrow.

I've felt all season that North Carolina was one of the four best teams in the country, and I still felt that way immediately after this game ended. But without Dexter Strickland? I'm going to have to seriously consider not just dropping them from the 1 seed line, but dropping them as the ACC favorite (and taking Duke instead). Unfortunately, we won't be able to see them play again until Thursday, when they'll play NC State.

Washington State 81, Stanford 69
Oh, Pac-12, how you confuse. Washington State's defense has been horrible this season, allowing 1.10 PPP in conference play this season. Yet rather than attack this defense, and despite the fact that Stanford couldn't hit an outside shot to save their lives, and despite the fact that they had opened up a double-digit lead early in the second half, the Cardinal just kept chucking, and chucking.... and chucking. They launched 33 three-pointers in this game, hitting 8 of them (24.2%). When they actually attacked the rim, they scored at will (a 61.5 2P%).

Stanford is still 5-2 in Pac-12 play, though in the Pac-12 there are no quality wins - only bad losses. They now have bad losses to Oregon, Washington State and Butler, and their best win was probably the victory over NC State (or maybe Colorado State). Their RPI has slipped to 74th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is out to 63rd. Honestly, if the season ended now, Stanford would be out of the Tournament, and California would be the only at-large team from the Pac-12. That doesn't mean that the Pac-12 is likely to be a one-bid league (remember, the odds of California winning the Pac-12 tournament are lower than 50%), but it means that it's still very plausible. Because Stanford can't get any quality wins, they're going to have to earn their at-large bid by overwhelming the Selection Committee with their won-loss record. I think they've got to get to 12-6 in Pac-12 play (which would make them 22-8 overall) and then need to win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament. They'll play later today at Washington.

This is a nice win for Washington State, but it's their best win and they have bad losses to Utah, UC-Riverside, Colorado, Washington and Oregon. They're outside the Top 100 in every computer rating. They'd have to win four or five more games in a row to get into the bubble discussion. Their next game will be later today at home against California, an excellent chance for them to bump those computer numbers up.

#9 Michigan State 83, Purdue 58
You have to feel sympathy for the Purdue players. Last night their plane got stuck on the tarmac for two hours and then was cancelled, sending the players back to their dorms. They were able to take a short nap before waking up for a 5am bus ride that took five hours to get them to East Lansing. They got into town two hours before tip and just went straight to the arena. They never even checked into their hotel. They actually came out competitive for the first ten minutes of the game, but then just wore out. What chance did they really have?

Of course, there's a 0% chance that anybody on the Selection Committee is going to know and remember this travel difficulty on Selection Sunday, and so this is just a big missed opportunity for Purdue to grab a quality victory. They're now 4-3 in Big Ten play with wins over Illinois, Minnesota, Temple and Miami (Fl), along with bad losses to Penn State and Butler. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be around 40th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They'd definitely be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but they don't have a lot of room to spare. I think they've got to reach 10-8 to lock down a Tournament spot before the Big Ten tournament tips. They'll play Michigan next, on Tuesday, before a road game at Northwestern next Saturday.

Michigan State is 5-2 in Big Ten play, putting them in a tie with Michigan for the lead in the Big Ten standings. Considering everything that's happened so far in conference play, I don't think there's any question that MSU is the most likely team to challenge Ohio State for the conference title. They still have both of their games against the Buckeyes ahead. They'll play in Columbus on February 11th, and then back in East Lansing on March 4th. The Spartans next game will be Wednesday against Minnesota.

BYU Falls To A Non-Big Three In The WCC

2012-01-21T14:24:00.001-05:00

Loyola-Marymount 82, BYU 68
The WCC has three teams that are far, far better than the rest of the conference. Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary's are all in a good position for an at-large bid, while entering this game there was no other team in the conference in the Pomeroy Top 150. It seemed like the conference might just come down to how the Big Three did against each other, and that they'd all just swamp every other opponent. But of course, that's not how it works. Every team has a clunker now and then, and BYU had a clunker here. They were a frigid 2-for-25 behind the arc (8%), their worst three-point shooting performance in at least six years. They were also sloppy with the ball, allowing ten steals. Loyola-Marymount's Anthony Ireland (27 points on 9-for-11 shooting, 5 assists, 5 steals) was the best player for either team. Ireland is already a do-everything star for this team, and he's only a sophomore. So keep an eye on him for the next couple of years.

Loyola-Marymount is now 4-2, putting them in 4th place, a full two games clear of fifth place. The 4th seed in the WCC tournament gets a bye straight to the quarterfinals, so that's a valuable place to be. And they proved here that if things go right they have the ability on any given night to beat one of the big boys in the conference (in their last game they lost to Gonzaga by only four points). It's not a likely scenario, but if any team in the WCC other than the Big Three makes the WCC tournament finals, the Lions have to be the most likely. Their next game will be Monday at Santa Clara.

BYU is still 16-5 after this loss, but they're only 5-2 in conference play and they still don't have a win against the RPI Top 50. Their RPI has slipped all the way to 55th, and they would be a bubble team if the season ended now. They will play at Virginia Tech next Wednesday, and also have home games remaining against Gonzaga and St. Mary's. They'll need to collect a couple of big wins out of those games in order to firm up their resume.

Penn State 54, #25 Illinois 52
This was a classic, predictable letdown game. Illinois was coming off a huge home win over Ohio State, going on the road to play a feisty Penn State team that is always hard to play at the Bryce Jordan Center. Heading into the season, the belief was that Tim Frazier was the one Big Ten-quality player left on this Penn State roster. But he's been more than just a Big Ten-quality player - when you consider the level of his teammates and the fact that every other team focuses their defense on stopping him, you can make an argument that Frazier should be First Team All-Big Ten this season (I wouldn't agree with that argument, mind you, but the argument can be plausibly made). And he was dominant here, collecting 9 assists and scoring 12 points, including the game-winning floater with around eight seconds to go. Credit in this game also goes to the Penn State front line, which contained Meyers Leonard as well as could have been expected. He scored only 15 points and actually fouled out with a minute to go in the game. The two teams fought to a draw on the boards.

This win pushes Penn State to 2-5 in the Big Ten, though with a brutal upcoming schedule. They'll play at Indiana tomorrow, then at Ohio State on Wednesday followed by a home game against Wisconsin. And a week after that? A road game at Michigan State. Honestly, I'll be surprised if Penn State wins a road game the rest of the season. Their role will be as spoiler, pulling a couple more of these home upsets.

Illinois is still 4-2 in Big Ten play after this loss, and they do have that win over Ohio State, along with wins over Gonzaga, Northwestern and Minnesota. This is their first bad loss of the season. So I still think Illinois has a buffer between them and the bubble, though they'll need to get to 10-8 to keep it there. If Illinois finishes only 9-9 in Big Ten or worse then they're going to enter the Big Ten tournament with work left to do to secure their place in the Field of 68.

#16 San Diego State 75, New Mexico 70
Forget that #16 written next to San Diego State's name because this was actually a massive upset. San Diego State was an 11 point underdog in Vegas. Even after this win they're overrated at #16, and New Mexico is a better team than most people realize. And you'd have figured San Diego State was due for a letdown game after a buzzer-beating win at home against UNLV after absolutely everything went right for them. But New Mexico just struggled mightily in this game scoring around the rim. The Lobos backcourt, in particular, couldn't get anything to fall in the paint (5-for-24 on two-pointers).

This has been a heck of a start to conference play for San Diego State. After collecting just three decent wins out-of-conference (Arizona, California and Long Beach State) they have opened up Mountain West play by beating UNLV and then winning at New Mexico. They shouldn't have much trouble tonight with Air Force, but then head on the road for a pair of tricky games (at Wyoming, at Colorado State). I'll be impressed, and surprised, if they win both of those games.

The computers like New Mexico, though it hasn't shown up in their resume. They have zero RPI Top 50 wins (though I expect that win over St. Louis to eventually be an RPI Top 50 win) and two bad losses (Santa Clara, New Mexico State). With San Diego State's two big wins they are looking like a safe NCAA Tournament team, and UNLV is the team I've picked all season to win the conference. But New Mexico? They're looking like a bubble team right now, honestly. I still expect them to make the Tournament, but they're going to have to get to at least 9-5 in conference play to stay in a good position. They are 1-1 heading into a massive road game at UNLV tonight. They'll come home Wednesday for a tricky game against Colorado State before their schedule will ease up a bit.

Texas Loses Another Close One

2012-01-21T10:07:00.000-05:00

Kansas State 84, Texas 80
It's a frustrating season for Texas so far, as they keep coming up just short against quality teams. They are 0-3 in games decided by five points or less, and have two losses this season that wouldn't have happened if J'Covan Brown hadn't missed much of the second half (once after being ejected, and once after getting hurt). This game was between two teams that are excellent offensive rebounding teams and horrid defensive rebounding teams, and so naturally there were as many offensive rebound (28) as defensive rebounds. Rodney McGruder had another huge game for Kansas State (33 points on 11-for-17 shooting, the second time in the last three games he's gone for 30+). He outplayed J'Covan Brown, who had a rare off-night (4-for-14 behind the arc and a 35.7 eFG% overall).

A road loss at Kansas State is nothing to be ashamed of, of course. Neither is a road loss at Missouri or North Carolina. This Texas team has a ton of talent, and it's easy to blame their youth for these close losses, but I don't think that's the case. I would argue that their youth means that they're going to continue to improve and will be at their best in March. They have an opportunity later today for a gigantic home win against Kansas. A loss, however, would drop them to 2-4 with a home game against Iowa State coming up on Tuesday.

Kansas State has had a pair of impressive home victories in Big 12 play (Missouri and Texas), but as is often the case with the Wildcats, they are a totally different team on the road. They've won only one true road game all season long, and their two road Big 12 games have gone poorly (an embarrassing game against Kansas where they would have lost by 40 if the Jayhawks hadn't pulled their foot off the pedal, and a 9 point loss to a mediocre Oklahoma team). They'll get an opportunity later today on the road at Oklahoma State, a team that has struggled mightily and that also matches up poorly with Kansas State's personnel (OSU has a very thin front court, which makes them a poor rebounding team on both ends of the floor). If Kansas State fails to win this game, then there will really start to become concern about whether they're anything more than a bubble team destined to be limited to whatever they can achieve at home.

Ole Miss 75, #15 Mississippi State 68
Ole Miss was able to match Mississippi State physically in the paint here, and they pushed much of the MSU offense away from the basket. Renardo Sidney played well (17 points on 6-for-12 shooting), but the rest of the offense struggled (a combined 33.3% on two-point attempts). The Rebels, on the other hand, were able to attack the basket, hitting 56.1% of their twos and earning 30 free throws. Reginald Buckner was the star, with 19 points, 15 rebounds and 3 blocks.

You could tell that this game meant more to Ole Miss than it did to their rivals. They knew that this was an opportunity for their best win of the season. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is having their reality check. They climbed into the Top 15 in the polls, but it seemed a bit ridiculous to me. They have only beaten three Top 100 teams all season, and they've been a little lucky to even get there (4-1 in games decided by five points or less). I had some really angry Mississippi State fans here for a while because I wasn't putting their team in the NCAA Tournament while all the other bracket sites were giving them 5 or 6 seeds, but the reality is that I was right. They're a bubble team at best, and SEC play is exposing that.

Mississippi State is now 2-2 in SEC play with wins over Alabama, West Virginia and Arizona, along with iffy losses to Ole Miss, Akron and Arkansas. Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings have been outside the Top 50 basically the entire season, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has slipped to 41st as well. An 8-8 SEC record will get them onto the bubble, but I think that unless they get a big win over Kentucky or Florida then they're going to end up in the NIT if they fall short of 9-7. Sagarin predicts a 9-7 finish and Pomeroy projects an 8-8 finish, so they're straddling that line. They have a chance to pick up a good upset win later today at a surging Vanderbilt team (and if Vandy does win, expect the media to preposterously argue that MSU was "upset" because they are ranked and Vandy isn't, even though Vandy should clearly be favored). After that they'll head home for a manageable home game against LSU.

Ole Miss moves to a respectable 12-6 and 2-2 in SEC play with this win. The problem is that they have zero Top 50 wins and a bunch of iffy losses (Auburn, LSU, Middle Tennessee State). They're also 7-2 in games decided by single-digits. So despite an RPI of 39th and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 51st, their Pomeroy and PREDICTOR ratings are both outside the Top 100. The Rebels will have a shot at an at-large bid if they can get to 9-7 in SEC play and win a game or two in the SEC tournament, but I doubt that they'll achieve that.

Vanderbilt 69, Alabama 59
It's easy to forget how much talent this Vanderbilt team has. Preseason they got more hype than any other Vanderbilt team in history, and for good reason. They returned absolutely everybody from a team that earned a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, after all. They started this season ranked 7th in the nation in both human polls. The problem was that Festus Ezeli injured his knee before the season and missed ten games. And even after he came back it took a while for him to look like the player he was last season. Ezeli may not be the best interior defender in the nation, but he might be the most crucial. Vandy's perimeter defenders are not good, and it was a layup line against them early in the season. They lost games to Indiana State and Cleveland State. But the past few weeks he's been playing more like himself, and he was dominant here with three blocks and a whole bunch of other shots redirected.

Vanderbilt has won eight straight games and is 4-0 in SEC play. They did beat Marquette a few weeks ago, but this is their first quality SEC win. Their overall resume is still relatively soft (their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 30th), but if they can avoid a letdown game later today and beat Mississippi State at home then I'm really going to start to believe that Vandy can work their way back into the Top Ten and can be a legitimate contender in the SEC and to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. I didn't panic too much by Vandy's struggles, never dropping them below a 7 seed in my bracket, and I currently have them as a 5. If they win today then I'll push them up to at least a 4, and will consider pushing them to a 3. They won't have earned that seed yet, of course. But I'll feel more confident that their improved play will earn them that by the end of the season.

Alabama, for as good as their defense has been, is really struggling offensively in SEC play. They've lost back-to-back games to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, scoring a combined 87.4 PPP. They've scored only 0.98 PPP overall in conference play, despite a relatively soft schedule (they haven't played Kentucky or Florida yet). That schedule strength will improve today when they play on the road at Kentucky. Unless they pull a shocking upset there, they'll fall to 2-3 in SEC play with a road game at South Carolina coming up on Wednesday. I still believe that Alabama is a good team overall, but they have to be careful or they could slip onto the Tournament bubble. Anything less than a 10-6 finish will leave them with work left to do heading into the SEC tournament.

UCF Beats An Underrated Memphis Team

2012-01-21T08:58:00.000-05:00

Central Florida 68, Memphis 67
This was the loudest UCF crowd I've ever heard (not that I watch that many UCF games) and it was the best the team has looked all season long. I don't think that's a coincidence. They only turned it over eight times and collected six blocks. They actually would have won this game fairly easily if Memphis didn't hit 7-for-11 on threes. Keith Clanton was a monster, finishing with 23 points, 8 rebounds, and the game-winning three-point play with four seconds to go. But that outside shooting makes you think. I talk all the time about teams that launch too many threes even though they're not falling - but Memphis is a team that should be taking more of them. They're hitting 40% of their threes this season, but are taking only 25.7% of their shots behind the arc (that puts them 312th in the nation in 3PA/FGA). With all of these talented dribble-drivers, they should be kicking the ball out more rather than taking so many off-balance five-footers.

There's a lot of talk about Memphis being a gigantic disappointment this season. They were ranked as high as 8th in the nation early this season, but are now a bubble team. But this is just flat out wrong. If anything, Memphis is better than I thought they'd be. They were just very lucky and overrated last season, and are unlucky and underrated this season. Last season they were 14-2 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. They finished 9th in the nation in Pomeroy's Luck rating, which is even more amazing when you realize that the 2nd luckiest team not from a small conference was Notre Dame, all the way back at 23rd. This season? With all of their stars back and an extra season of experience under their belts? They're 3-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime, and their Pomeroy Lucky rating is 281st.

Despite getting some Top 25 love at the end of last season (they weren't ranked, but they were among the teams that got votes), Pomeroy had them way back in 87th. That's why the statistical community was incredulous at the Top Ten ranking Memphis was getting early in the season. The fact is that going 14-2 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime is almost entirely luck, as this season's performance in close games has borne out. And in fact, it's been their bad luck this year that's holding them back. They're actually rated 28th in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Moving up from 87th to 28th in one season is pretty darn good, if you ask me. Not that this fact will stop anybody on television from calling Memphis a huge disappointment for the rest of the season.

Of course, the Selection Committee doesn't care how good teams are - they care who you've beat and who you lost to. And Memphis is now 12-6 with wins over Belmont, Miami (Fl), Southern Miss and Tennessee, along with a potentially bad loss here to UCF. It will really help their resume if they can knock off Xavier in a couple of weeks, because the lack of a big win is holding back their resume right now. They'll have to get to at least 11-5 in conference play to have a decent shot at an at-large bid.

Conference USA has been wide open all season long, and UCF is making a case to be in the conversation. Marshall is leading the conference standings with a 4-0 record, though they've done it against a soft schedule. And right behind them with one loss? Memphis, Southern Miss and UCF. UCF is 14-4, though against a weak schedule. They have wins over UConn and Memphis, along with a bad loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as well as an iffy loss to Marshall. Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings are both hovering near 100, though, so I wouldn't say that I love their chances at either the conference title or an at-large bid.

Wisconsin 77, Northwestern 57
Throughout the Bo Ryan years, one of the biggest consistencies has been good shooting at home, and it's been mind-boggling how badly they've shot at home this season, however. In their three Big Ten home games prior to this one they shot a combined 10-for-68 (14.7%) behind the arc. Even a decent shooting night on the road at Purdue in the middle of that streak didn't turn things around at home. It looked to me like they were getting plenty of open shots - it was just a horrendous cold streak. And maybe they've mentally turned the corner, because they hit 12-for-23 behind the arc here. One game is not a streak, of course, and it's possible that the Badgers will go back to hideous shooting in their next game, but I just find it improbable that their shooting won't end up being decent at the end of the season. There are too many good shooters on this Badgers team, even if they are streaky.

For Northwestern, this type of game has become a pattern. John Shurna had 12 points in the first 9 minutes of this game, nearly outscoring Wisconsin by himself. Naturally, he made just one more bucket in the next 28 minutes of game time. It reminded me a bit of that Illinois game a couple of weeks ago when Shurna had 17 first half points and then didn't score again until the final seconds. Of course, Northwestern as a whole has struggled in the second halves of games this season, and a big part of that has to be fatigue. Nominally they have an eight man rotation, but with JerShon Cobb (hip) and Alex Marcotullio (concussion) out, they only are going six deep. I'm pretty sure they went more than ten minutes of the second half here without making a substitution. Bill Carmody tried switching to a zone to keep his players fresh, but that's when Wisconsin started hitting their threes and opened things up. When Northwestern was in man-to-man, Bo Ryan tried to run a lot of his team's offense at John Shurna to try to wear him out further.

Northwestern drops to 2-4 in Big Ten play after this loss. They don't have any bad losses yet and they do have those victories over Michigan State and Seton Hall, so if they can even get to 9-9 in Big Ten play and win a game in the Big Ten tournament then they should be in good shape for an at-large bid. They have a fairly crucial game coming up on Sunday at Minnesota. After that they'll come home for Purdue and then will play Nebraska at home. If they can that Minnesota game then those next two games are very winnable and they could be sitting pretty at 5-4 in Big Ten play.

Wisconsin has followed their three game losing streak with a three game winning streak. They're now 4-3 in conference play, with a road game coming up on Sunday at Illinois. A win there would actually pull Wisconsin within half a game of first place in the conference, which is fairly amazing considering that awful stretch they just came out of. But that said, Illinois is going to be fired up after that embarrassing loss to Penn State. And their most recent home game was a victory over Ohio State, so that will be a very tough road game for the Badgers.

Wichita State 71, Northern Iowa 68
Northern Iowa led almost the entire second half, but Tour'e Murray absolutely took this game over down the stretch. He single-handedly outscored Northern Iowa 8-4 over the final four minutes. Murray finished the game with 24 points on 8-for-10 from the field (including 2-for-3 behind the arc). Overall, this game was a battle of strengths. Northern Iowa has shot 38.6% behind the arc for the season (they get 36.3% of their points on threes, which is 22nd highest in the nation), but meanwhile Wichita State leads the conference in eFG% against, and is holding opponents to 30.0% behind the arc. WSU won that battle, holding UNI to precisely 30% on threes here.

This result further firms up the picture that I'm seeing in the Missouri Valley. Both Wichita State and Creighton are in the Tournament with room to spare. Either team would need multiple bad losses down the stretch to fall to the bubble. But at the same time, no other team looks like a very realistic at-large team. UNI is still the best of the rest, but their resume has really weakened over the past week. They are now only 3-5 in Missouri Valley play and 2-4 against the RPI Top 75, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that has slipped to 65th. As improved as the conference is, it's inconceivable that a 9-9 Missouri Valley team could earn an at-large bid. They'll need to finish at least 10-3 over their final 13 games. They do get a relatively easy game next, at home against Drake on Sunday.

Wichita State moves to 16-3 overall and 7-1 in conference play with this win. They have a nice win over UNLV along with zero bad losses. They have an easy schedule upcoming and just need to be sure not to fall on their face. Up next is a home game against Southern Illinois, followed by a home game against Evansville.

Nebraska Over Indiana: Not As Shocking As You'd Think

2012-01-20T19:50:00.000-05:00

Nebraska 70, #13 Indiana 69
This game isn't the shocking upset that many are making it out to be. First of all, note that Nebraska isn't as bad of a team as their resume suggests. Getting Jorge Brian Diaz and Dylan Talley back has been huge. Those two combined for 20 points and 8 offensive rebounds in this game. Also note that Nebraska only really plays a seven man rotation - when they were missing two of those players they had to give major minutes to players who wouldn't otherwise be seeing the floor. In their two games previous to this they took Illinois down to the final seconds on the road and beat Penn State fairly easily at home.

Second of all, Indiana hasn't proven either that they can win consistently on the road, or during a "taking care of business" game. Their only true road win since November came against Penn State, the worst team in the Big Ten. In addition, if you take out those Ohio State and Kentucky upsets, they actually have a fairly weak resume. Obviously those wins don't get taken out, and they'll mean a lot on Selection Sunday, but it just makes you question whether Indiana is really an elite team. The Hoosiers held Kentucky and Ohio State to a combined 1.01 PPP, but are now giving up 1.11 PPP in Big Ten play. That's a sign that their defense is getting lazy against these softer opponents.

The Hoosiers are now 3-4, and they should push that back to 4-4 after a home game against Penn State on Sunday. But after that? They'll play road games at Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue over the next two weeks. We'll learn just how deep Indiana's road woes go.

Nebraska's poor stretch earlier this season doomed any realistic at-large chances, but they're now a respectable 2-5 Big Ten play. They'll play Ohio State on Saturday, and after that will go on the road to play Iowa.

#18 Creighton 66, Missouri State 65
Caleb Patterson had a shot at the buzzer to give Missouri State the win, and obviously any one-point win always requires a bit of luck, but I give Creighton a lot of credit for even being in this game at the buzzer. It's no secret that Creighton's success this season has been due to shooting the ball. They are leading the nation in eFG% and are shooting a mind-boggling 45% as a team on threes (they have a nine-man rotation, and seven of those players are hitting 40% or better on threes). But here, on the road against a very good Missouri State team, the shots weren't falling. They finished only 5-for-16 on threes, despite the fact that Missouri State isn't really known as superb three-point defenders (the Bears are tied for 140th in the nation with a 34.0 3P% against for the season).

This season, Creighton has hit below 40% on threes in just three games. One of those games was against a cupcake, another was a tight game against UAB, and the third was this game. How did they pull it out? Two things. First, without the outside shots falling they did a really nice job pushing the ball into the paint. They hit 69% of their two-point shots, most of them only a couple of feet from the basket. Second, they played excellent defense, holding Missouri State to a 43.0 eFG%, the second worst shooting performance they've had all season long.

This was a game that Missouri State badly needed after that bad loss to Evansville. This loss drops them to 4-4 in Valley play and only 11-9 overall, as well as just 6-9 against the RPI Top 200. They'd have to win four or five in a row to get back into the bubble picture. They'll play at Bradley tomorrow, and then at Illinois State on Wednesday.

With this win, Creighton moves to 17-2 overall and 7-1 in the Missouri Valley, with wins over San Diego State, Wichita State, Northwestern and Northern Iowa. Even a 7-3 finish over their final ten games should be sufficient to lock them into the NCAA Tournament. Something like a 4 or 5 seed isn't inconceivable if they have 27 or 28 wins by Selection Sunday.

Villanova 84, Seton Hall 76
As poorly as Villanova has played this season, they have shown some life the past few games. The biggest change has been that Jay Wright has convinced his players that they're not good at shooting threes (they're shooting a brutal 30.9% on the year) and they're starting to attack the rim. They earned a remarkable 41 free throws in this game, hitting 34 of them (they're hitting an excellent 76.4% at the line as a team this season). In their other win in Big East play, against DePaul, they earned 34 free throw attempts. I see a correlation.

Of course, only having two Big East wins at this point in the season isn't a wonderful situation, and Nova is still below .500 overall (9-10). They'll try to improve their Big East record to 3-5 tomorrow at St. John's. They'll play at Louisville on Wednesday.

Seton Hall is 15-4, but they're down to 4-3 in Big East play. They have wins over West Virginia, UConn, VCU and Dayton, along with a bad loss to USF. Their RPI is 6th, though their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is a more realistic 27th. They'll be in decent at-large shape head into the Big East tournament if they can get to 9-9. They'll play Notre Dame next, on Wednesday.

Michigan Escapes After A Frenetic Finish vs Michigan State

2012-01-18T23:19:00.000-05:00

#19 Michigan 60, #9 Michigan State 59
Stu Douglass scored on a layup with around 36 seconds to go to put Michigan up by one. Michigan State then had about three chances in the final seconds to score the winning basket, but none of them fell. Michigan State finished 0-for-4 from the field with a turnover in the final two minutes. And all of that after a 16-2 second half run to overcome a fairly large Michigan lead. Trey Burke had another tremendous game, scoring 20 points on 8-for-11 shooting. I wouldn't say that he's as good of an overall player as Darius Morris was last season (he's as good at scoring the ball, but he's not as good of a passer or creator for his teammates), but the fact that he's more or less filled the void is the primary reason why Michigan is 5-2 and in contention atop the Big Ten.

Michigan now has wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Memphis, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa State and UCLA, and only one bad loss (Iowa). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is all the way up to 19th. They've been a little bit lucky this season (4-1 in games decided by five points or less), so I don't expect them to keep this level of play up, but we'll see if I'm right as their schedule strength improves. For some reason they're playing a road game at Arkansas on Saturday (and don't sleep on the upset potential there as Mike Anderson has Arkansas playing a lot better), but next week they'll be the road to face both Purdue and Ohio State. The following week they'll play Indiana and then will go on the road to play Michigan State. It's a brutal two-week stretch.

This is Michigan State's second two-game losing streak of the season. Of course, they won 15 straight games in between. They're still only one game in the loss column behind Illinois atop the Big Ten, and I don't think anybody believes that Illinois will still be up there in a couple of weeks anyway. The Spartans are second best in the Big Ten outscoring opponents by 0.17 PPP in conference play this season, so they're still the team most likely to challenge Ohio State for the regular season title. The Spartans will take on Purdue on Saturday, and then will play Minnesota next Wednesday.

Cincinnati 70, #11 UConn 67
It's not a surprise that UConn is struggling with Ryan Boatright dealing with eligibility issues. Boatright is a very good player, and you know that UConn fans have to hate not knowing when he'll be back. In situations like this you just want the NCAA to make a ruling so that we all know if he'll be back, and when. Anyway, Cincy actually looked to be headed to a relatively easy win here. Shabazz Napier hit three three-pointers in the final 90 seconds to pull UConn even late, but a cold-blooded Sean Kilpatrick three gave Cincy the win.

Cincinnati has now won 10 of 11, pushing to 5-1 in Big East play with nice wins over Georgetown and UConn along with one bad loss (Presbyterian). Their RPI is still 107th, but never mind that. That number will improve just as their schedule strength improves. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 67th (and should move up to around 60th after this win), which is a much better measure of their resume. What's holding their resume back is their horrid non-conference strength of schedule (rated 337th by Pomeroy). That said, Cincinnati is certainly playing like an NCAA Tournament team, and so I expect all of those computer numbers to continue to improve as they continue to win Big East games. If they can get to 10-8 in Big East play, it will be hard to see them missing the Tournament. They'll try to move to 6-1 on Saturday at West Virginia.

UConn is still 14-4 overall after this loss, though they're now only 4-3 in Big East play with only a few quality wins (Florida State, West Virginia and Harvard) along with a pair of bad losses to Rutgers and UCF. Their RPI is 4th, but their Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings are both going to fall out of the Top 30 after this loss. They'll play at Tennessee on Saturday, and then will have eight days off to get ready for a home game against Notre Dame. Have to say, it's odd during conference play for a team to go 11 days between games against conference opponents... not sure why it worked out that way.

Xavier 68, St. Joe's 55
Xavier looks to have finally fixed themselves mentally after some brutally bad play after that Cincinnati brawl. Tu Holloway was a facilitator in this game, collecting 12 assists while only taking five shots. You have to figure that he'll be more aggressive offensively when they need him to - he's still the team's go-to scorer. Overall, Xavier had 18 assists on 27 made baskets. If they hadn't hit only 4-for-16 on threes, this game would have really been a blowout.

Xavier went through a horrid six game stretch after the Cincinnati brawl. They lost five of the six games, including a terrible loss to Hawaii. The one win was a narrow one over a mediocre Southern Illinois team. But Xavier has won four straight games now, and taking St. Joe's down this thoroughly is definitely a very nice performance. Xavier is now 3-1 in Atlantic Ten play with two huge games coming up over the next week. They'll play at Dayton on Saturday, and then will get St. Louis at home next Wednesday.

This is a tough missed opportunity for a St. Joe's team that has been hanging out near the bubble, but that just can't close out a big win. They have narrow losses to Harvard, Seton Hall and Iona. They did knock off Creighton, but that's their only quality win of the season, and they're only 2-3 in Atlantic Ten play, with a brutal conference stretch upcoming (vs Dayton, at Temple, at Richmond, vs La Salle, vs St. Louis). All five of those opponents will likely finish the season as RPI Top 100 teams, so St. Joe's will have the opportunity to add a slew of quality wins... or else their A-10 record will drop like a rock. Time will tell which scenario happens.

Kansas Handles Baylor

2012-01-18T20:56:00.000-05:00

#7 Kansas 92, #3 Baylor 74
This was a fun game, but I'm not sure we learned a whole lot. Despite the dumb human poll rankings, most people who follow college basketball closely know that Kansas is the better team, and the Jayhawks were at home. On top of that, Baylor's offense relies on offensive rebounds and put-backs, and few teams are as good at preventing those as Kansas, so this was a bad match-up for the Bears. Throw in 6-for-11 shooting behind the arc for Kansas and you end up with an 18 point margin of victory. One concern for Baylor is that Brady Heslip wasn't getting enough of the ball. He took only three shots (and had two assists) in 26 minutes. Heslip is a tremendous shooter, and Baylor desperately needs players that can stretch the floor on offense. I've talked before about how good shooting nights from Heslip always seem to correlate with good wins for them.

This loss drops Baylor from the ranks of the unbeaten. They are now 17-1, with two undefeated teams remaining (Syracuse and Murray State). Of course, Baylor was never going to finish this season undefeated, and losing on the road still gives them the chance to beat Kansas in Waco. That game will happen February 8th. And they get a chance to bounce back in a big way on Saturday, when they'll play Missouri.

Kansas has, so far this season, been the strongest Big 12 team. They have that upset against Davidson, but their other losses have been to Kentucky and Duke. They have wins over Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown and now Baylor. If they win a share of the Big 12 title and win the Big 12 tournament then they'll have an excellent shot at a 1 seed in March. They have a key game on Saturday at Texas, where they'll try to avoid a letdown.

#22 Marquette 74, #21 Louisville 63
Louisville actually led this game 18-2 at one point. They hit 7 of their first 12 shot to make that happen. But eventually their offense clogged up again, and they faltered in the second half of the game. Peyton Siva made a more focused effort to be a facilitator (1-for-4 from the floor, 8 assists), but team efficiency did not improve. They finished with 0.88 PPP - the sixth time in the last nine games that they've scored fewer than one point per possession. Their defense remains excellent, but that offense is just atrocious.

Honestly, I don't understand how Louisville has stayed ranked so long. They've now lost five of their last seven games, and prior to that were two putrid games against Western Kentucky and Charleston, both of which came down to the final minute. They've slid to 35th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 41st in Pomeroy. I don't think they'll fall to the bubble, but it's not inconceivable. They are 2-4 in Big East play and will need to get to at least 9-9 in Big East play to avoid the bubble. And their schedule doesn't ease up in the near future. They'll play at Pittsburgh on Saturday, another team that has struggled with offensive efficiency. But Pitt has played better the past two games and will be desperate for a win - that will be a tough game.

Marquette moves to 4-2 in Big East play with this win, and remain as likely as any other team to finish second in the Big East. That said, their big concern is road play. They are 1-3 this season in true road games heading into a game on Saturday at a feisty Providence team. They have road games at UConn, West Virginia and Cincinnati all coming up after mid-February, so they need to figure out how to win road games now so they won't stagger to the finish of the regular season in March.

Valparaiso 72, Cleveland State 66
Tim Kamczyc has emerged as one of the best interior scorers in the country, and he poured in 18 points on 7-for-8 shooting. Unfortunately for him, his teammates shot a combined 33% from the field, and Valpo ran away with the upset victory. Meanwhile, Cleveland State's post defense continues to be a problem. Their 49.6 2P% against is 238th in the nation and third worst in the Horizon League. Valpo shot an incredible 75% on twos in this game.

Cleveland State was the one team in the Horizon League that had a plausible shot at an at-large bid. This loss doesn't end those chances, but it makes it much less likely. That win over Vanderbilt remains their only quality win of the season and they have bad losses to Hofstra, Youngstown State, Valparaiso and South Florida. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has slipped to 55th. They can't afford to lose too many more times the rest of the season. At 5-2 in Horizon League play, they'll have to finish at least 13-5 to have a shot at an at-large bid heading into the Horizon tournament.

Valpo has improved throughout this season under first-year coach Bryce Drew. In non-conference play they finished 6-5 against Division I opponents with losses to IPFW, Oakland and IUPUI. But they're now 5-2 and tied for second place in the Horizon standings. They'll play at Loyola-Chicago tomorrow, and then at Illinois-Chicago on Saturday.

Ohio State Thrashes Indiana While The Missouri Valley Scuffles

2012-01-18T17:43:00.001-05:00

#5 Ohio State 80, #8 Indiana 63
I don't think that anybody paying attention was too surprised by this result. This game got plenty of hype because of the programs involved and their rankings in the polls, but this was a revenge game for the Buckeyes. And remember, Indiana had absolutely everything go right for them in Bloomington, and that game still came down to the final seconds. Unlike the Bloomington game, the Buckeyes did a good job of forcing turnovers here (10 steals). The fact is that ball handling is the weakest area of Indiana's offense (other than, arguably, post scoring), and you can bet that other teams will try to replicate what OSU did... though it's a little bit harder to accomplish when your team doesn't have Aaron Craft.

The star offensively for Ohio State was Lenzelle Smith, who scored 28 points on 10-for-12 shooting (including 4-for-5 behind the arc). This was the game of Smith's life so far, but I do think that's only because he hasn't had enough opportunities to play in his young career. Smith is an excellent shooter (53.1% on threes this year), a very good perimeter defender and a solid defensive rebounder. He's already drawing comparisons to David Lighty, who was one of the best all-around players in the Big Ten the past few years, though I actually think Smith is a little bit more physical. And Smith is certainly a better player at this point in his career than Lighty was back when he was a sophomore. If Craft and Smith both stick around until their senior seasons (the 2013-14 season), that will be a heck of a backcourt duo.

Ohio State is clearly better than Indiana, but there's no shame in that for the Hoosiers. In my opinion, Ohio State is the best team in the country. I would say that Indiana has been the third best Big Ten team so far this season (behind Ohio State and Michigan State). That said, the concern remains the same one I've been bringing up for weeks: can Indiana win consistently the conferences games that they're "supposed" to win. We know that they can get up emotionally at home and knock off Ohio State and Kentucky, and I certainly don't mean to diminish those accomplishments. But can they go on the road and beat the Northwesterns and Michigans of the Big Ten? It remains to be seen. They did win at Penn State, though the Nittany Lions are the worst team in the conference. After that they fell at home to Minnesota. Their next test will be tonight at Nebraska. Nebraska has been playing better the past couple of weeks since they got Jorge Brian Diaz and Dylan Talley back - don't sleep on that game as a potential upset. Either way, the Hoosiers shouldn't have trouble on Sunday at home against Penn State, but then will head on the road to play at Wisconsin.

Ohio State is only 4-2 in Big Ten play, which currently puts them in a tie for third place, but a little bit of that has been bad luck. There's no question that Ohio State has been the best team in the conference thus far. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.24 PPP in conference play thus far (scoring 1.10 PPP and allowing only 0.86), which is better than the 0.16 PPP they outscored opponents by last season. That is also, by far, the best in the conference (Michigan State is second best, outscoring opponents by 0.17 PPP, and then Michigan is third at 0.07). I'd expect them to get upset a couple more times the rest of the regular season just because the conference is so deep (I've said many times that I think any team that gets to 14-4 will win the Big Ten, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a bunch of teams sharing the title at 13-5), but I expect them to win at least a share of the regular season title and the Big Ten tournament title. And that combination of accomplishments will no doubt warrant a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their next game will be Saturday at Nebraska.

Evansville 87, Missouri State 82, OT
Mentally this is just a brutal, brutal loss for Missouri State. They grabbed the lead less than three minutes into the game and held it consistently until there were 15 seconds left in regulation. It was then that Evansville finished off a 10-3 run with a Denver Holmes three-pointer. Missouri State had a chance at the buzzer but couldn't convert. Evansville's Colt Ryan took over in overtime, scoring six points including a back-breaking jumper with a minute to go to put Evansville up by five.

More than just a mental defeat, this is a defeat that seriously damages Missouri State's at-large hopes. A week ago they were 4-1 in conference play and looking like a conference contender. But after falling on the road to Northern Iowa and losing here they are now only 4-3 in the Valley and 11-8 overall with only one real quality win (Creighton) and several bad losses (Illinois State, Evansville and Oklahoma State). Their RPI is 79th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has skidded all the way out to 83rd. I can't see them having a shot at an at-large bid unless they finish at least 12-6 in conference play, which would require an 8-3 or better finish. And considering that they still have to play Wichita State twice and Creighton once, in addition to several other tough games, that's going to be difficult to achieve. The Creighton game is up first, tonight at the Q.

Evansville moves to a respectable 3-4 in Missouri Valley play, and 8-9 overall, with this win. They'll have a good chance to bump both records up to .500 tonight when they play Bradley at home. They'll play Illinois State on Saturday.

Bradley 78, Northern Iowa 67
The Missouri Valley has been stronger this year than it's been since the middle of the last decade. With some of the major conferences down this year (particularly the Pac-12), there's been a lot of talk about how many Tournament bids the Valley will get. And the general consensus I'm hearing in the media is that the question is not whether the conference will get multiple bids, but how many more than two they'll get. But it's always an important reminder that Tournament bids aren't given to conferences, they're given to teams. If the season ended now, the Valley would get two Tournament teams - Creighton and Wichita State - but neither of those two teams is more than one or two bad losses from falling back to the bubble themselves. And after those two teams? I don't see a great option right now. The two teams after Creighton and Wichita State in terms of resume strength are Missouri State and Northern Iowa. But I just talked about that bad loss for Missouri State, and this loss for Northern Iowa is even worse.

Northern Iowa was undone by an 11-for-29 shooting performance behind the arc. Dyricus Simms-Edwards of Bradley hit 6-for-9 behind the arc by himself, and led all scorers with 26 points. Northern Iowa is certainly the team with the third best resume in the Missouri Valley, and if the conference gets a third Tournament team it will most likely be then, but this loss drops them (for the time being) out of the Field of 68. They are only 3-4 in Valley play with bad losses to Evansville, Illinois State and now Bradley, in addition to a loss to Ohio out-of-conference. Their best wins of the season were over Iowa State and Colorado State. Their RPI is still 30th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 54th. Without any really big wins, they'd definitely be NIT bound if the season ended now. They will get a great chance to bounce back tonight against Wichita State. If they can get to 11-7 in conference play then they'll at least have some scenario heading into Arch Madness where they can earn an at-large bid. Getting to 12-6, which will be a lot harder to do after this loss, would improve their odds further.

This is Bradley's first conference win of the season. They are now 1-6. Their next game will be tonight at Evansville.

UNLV Impresses In Loss To San Diego State

2012-01-17T23:48:00.000-05:00

#22 San Diego State 69, #12 UNLV 67
My regular readers know that I look at wins and losses much differently than the mainstream media and pollsters. The response from them after this game was, naturally, that it was a great game for San Diego State and we need to worry about UNLV. Just look at the Coaches Poll. This was the only game UNLV played all week, and they were dropped from 12th to 20th. San Diego State's other game during the week was a horrid eight point win over a Chicago State team that, at the time, was 0-15 and that is rated 340th in the nation by Pomeroy (out of 345, if you're curious), yet they were jacked up from 22nd to 16th. But in my view, this is exactly backwards. I thought that despite a frenzied crowd, UNLV clearly outplayed San Diego State. This result makes me more confident that UNLV is the best team in the Mountain West, not less. Let me tell you why.

First of all, UNLV earned 15 more offensive rebounds and committed one fewer turnover, meaning 16 more possessions than their opponents. They also had five more blocks, two more steals and did a better job of getting to the rim. How did they lose? For one thing, they were just ice cold from the field, finishing with a 41.2 eFG%, compared to a 48.2 eFG% for San Diego State. Lest you think that's not a fluke, that was the single worst shooting performance UNLV has had all season. For the year UNLV has both shot the ball better, and held opponents to a lower shooting percentage, than San Diego State has. Only four times this season has San Diego State held a Division I team to a worse shooting percentage than UNLV had, and three of those were cupcakes (the non-cupcake was Arizona). On top of those stats, the reality is that this was one of possibly the most one-sided reffing I've seen in a game all season long. San Diego State got every single close call in the final 5-7 minutes, not even including the clear travel on the game winning shot at the buzzer.

Remember that home court advantage is worth approximately four points in college basketball. UNLV dominated this game in every way other than some fluke shooting, had atrocious reffing working against them, was dealing with a tremendous road crowd... and San Diego State still needed a buzzer beating shot (on which they traveled but it wasn't called) to win? I honestly don't see how you can come out of this game not thinking that UNLV is the better team.

Now in my view, San Diego State is not the top competitor to UNLV in the Mountain West anyway. I think New Mexico is a more formidable opponent, and the computers agree with me. The Pomeroy/Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings of the three teams are: UNLV (19/15), New Mexico (18/23) and San Diego State (70/66). In other words, San Diego State may be rated 16th in the nation in the human polls, but that won't last. Their fall should start tomorrow when they head on the road to play New Mexico. I don't even think that game will be close. The bigger games to watch out for will be next week, when they head on the road to play Wyoming and Colorado State, two good teams that will be desperate for a big win to try to get themselves on the Tournament bubble. To put those games in perspective, Sagarin and Pomeroy rate San Diego State as underdogs for both.

As for UNLV, they'll play TCU tomorrow before a huge home game on Saturday against New Mexico. If they get upset at home then I will reconsider UNLV as my favorite in the Mountain West. Their "revenge game" at home against San Diego State will be February 11th.

#20 Mississippi State 56, Alabama 52
This game was tight the entire way, and a trio of threes by Dee Bost in the final few minutes helped put Mississippi State over the top. Arnett Moultrie led all players with 25 points and 13 rebounds, but credit also should go to Rodney Hood. The freshman, despite going 0-for-6 from the field and scoring a single point, still had an important role to play. He took care of the ball for 36 minutes and only turned it over once against the ferocious Alabama defense.

Mississippi State obviously isn't as good as their won-loss record. They are 4-1 in games decided by five points or less. Despite their ranking in the human polls (they've actually now moved up to 15th in the Coaches Poll) they are only 48th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 56th in Pomeroy. But on Selection Sunday it doesn't matter how good your team is, but who you've beaten and who you've lost to, and this is another quality win for this team. The Bulldogs now have wins over West Virginia, Arizona and Alabama to go with a pair of iffy losses (Akron and Arkansas). They are a respectable 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, and 2-1 in the SEC.

I don't think Mississippi State will stay ranked much longer, and I expect them to be on the bubble on Selection Sunday, but they're making a stronger case for an at-large bid. Even at 8-8 in SEC play they'd have a shot at an at-large bid if they could win a game or two in the SEC tournament. If they get to 9-7 in SEC play then they'll have an excellent shot. At 10-6 or better in SEC play they'll probably be a lock for the Tournament. They'll try to move to 3-1 tomorrow at Ole Miss.

Alabama has only played two games all season that were decided by seven points or less, and they lost both of them. Their lack of a go-to scorer does give me pause, and makes me wonder if they're going to lose a disproportionate number of close games all season long. They are 2-1 in SEC play with an important home game against Vanderbilt tomorrow. Vandy has been playing much better the past few weeks, so that's going to be a difficult game with a road match-up at Kentucky coming up on Saturday. If the Crimson Tide aren't careful, they could find themselves 2-3 in SEC play. I don't think there's any way that Alabama falls to the bubble, but these losses will take a toll on their Tournament seed.

Richmond 76, Temple 65
Fran Dunphy's teams have, historically, always been so consistent. But this is now consecutive bad letdown losses for Temple after a big win. After knocking off Duke they fell at home to Dayton. Then after winning at St. Louis, they fell here to Richmond. It was a surprisingly poor offensive performance from them. They shot only 36.7% from the field (a 41.7 eFG%) with only 8 assists. Collecting 14 offensive rebounds allowed them to finish with a more respectable overall offensive efficiency (0.98 PPP), but it wasn't enough to beat a Richmond team that got hot behind the arc early and never let go. Darien Brothers and Kendall Anthony combined to hit 8-for-15 behind the arc for the Spiders.

Temple is now only 1-2 in Atlantic Ten play. They have wins over Wichita State, St. Louis and Duke with only one bad loss (Bowling Green), so I don't think there's too much concern that Temple will fall to the bubble, but these two letdown losses are going to make it much harder for them to win the Atlantic Ten title. They'll try to bounce back tomorrow against La Salle, and then should be in good shape with a fairly soft schedule the next few weeks.

At one point this season Richmond was 7-6 overall with no quality wins and a couple of bad losses (Bucknell and Davdison), but they've righted the ship a bit. This is their best win of the season, and they are now 2-1 in Atlantic Ten play. With this win they moved back inside the Top 100 in all of the computer ratings. With a winnable upcoming schedule, and it's not inconceivable that they could find themselves something like 9-2 in Atlantic Ten play and getting some at-large hype. They'll play tomorrow at George Washington.

W-8 BP68

2012-01-15T02:39:00.000-05:00

The big change to my bracket projections once we hit January 15th is that I transition to the Full Bubble. What this means is that I will list every team with a "mathematical chance" of an at-large bid. It means listing a bunch of teams that seem to have no plausible chance at an at-large bid, simply because they could theoretically get onto the bubble if they went on a big winning streak. No teams will be added to the bubble the rest of the season. With each new bracket, teams will be eliminated from at-large contention until we get to Selection Sunday, when the bubble will be down to just a handful of teams.

In the past, some readers have thought that the "pretty much need a miracle" category is stupid, since most of the teams have no real chance. If you don't like it, ignore it. I like the idea of not adding any teams to the bubble, and only eliminating. It's my website, after all.

We had a lot of interesting results this past week. There is always a lot of carnage when teams go on their first road trips in conference play, particularly since so many top teams play nearly all of their non-conference games at home. So because of the action, I had four changes to the Field of 68. Cincinnati moved firmly into the Tournament and Pittsburgh dropped out. Meanwhile, Mississippi State edged into the last spot in the field, replacing a Virginia Tech team that is now my first team out. Among the automatic bids, New Mexico State replaced Utah State as my pick to win the WAC's auto bid. In the Southland, I moved Texas-Arlington into the NCAA Tournament and dropped Lamar out.

Remember, as always, that if I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team.

As a more serious reminder: this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference. Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. Florida
2. Georgetown

3. Texas
3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Indiana
3. Baylor

4. Marquette
4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. Missouri

5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Michigan State
5. Vanderbilt
5. Wisconsin

6. Louisville
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Saint Louis
6. Michigan

7. Virginia
7. BYU
7. New Mexico
7. Purdue

8. West Virginia
8. Kansas State
8. San Diego State
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)

9. Illinois
9. Saint Mary's
9. Xavier
9. Wichita State

10. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
10. Florida State
10. Seton Hall
10. Stanford

11. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
11. Southern Miss
11. Northwestern
11. Cincinnati

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. Dayton
12. California
12. Northern Iowa
12. Mississippi State
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

13. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)

14. OHIO (MAC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)

15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Marshall, Cleveland State, Missouri State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, South Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, VCU, Georgia State, Central Florida, Illinois State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duquesne, La Salle, UMass, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Rutgers, Villanova, Weber State, Nebraska, Penn State, Drexel, Tulane, UW-Milwaukee, Akron, Kent State, Indiana State, Boise State, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington State, Auburn, Tennessee, Denver, Utah State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, Wake Forest, Charlotte, Fordham, George Washington, DePaul, St. John's, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Loyola-Maryland, Ball State, Buffalo, Norfolk State, Drake, Air Force, TCU, Wagner, Lehigh, Georgia, South Carolina, Charleston, North Dakota State, South Dakota State

More Pac-12 Chaos: Oregon Knocks Off Arizona

2012-01-14T23:59:00.000-05:00

Oregon 59, Arizona 57
Oregon got off to a quick start in this game, leading by 12 points at the half and by as much as 17 in the second half. Arizona fought back, and actually took the lead briefly late. Garrett Sim hit a three to put Oregon back up by three points, and then Josiah Turner hit 1-of-2 at the free throw line to cut the lead to two with 85 seconds left. Arizona then had a slew of chances the rest of the way - they actually had four shots from the field, but none of them went in. Neither team scored a point in those final 85 seconds.

Devoe Joseph was the catalyst for Oregon here. He scored 13 points on 6-for-12 shooting, and opened things up for players like EJ Singler and Garrett Sim on the perimeter. For Arizona, Solomon Hill again was the star, finishing with 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting, as well as 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals.

This is not a result that will help Arizona's at-large resume. There just aren't a lot of quality losses to be had in the Pac-12 this season. This loss drops them to 12-6 overall and 3-2 in the Pac-12, with wins over New Mexico State and Oregon State along with bad losses to UCLA and Oregon. They are 1-5 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to fall to close to 70th. It's hard to see them earning an at-large bid unless they finish at least 12-6 in Pac-12 play. Next week they'll head on the road to play Utah and Colorado.

Oregon moves to 4-2 in Pac-12 play with this win. They have this win and a win over Stanford, along with an iffy loss to Washington. Like Arizona, it's hard to see Oregon earning an at-large bid with anything worse than a 12-6 record in conference play. Next week they'll be at home for the two southern California schools.

Boston College 61, Virginia Tech 59
Virginia Tech isn't that bad of a team, honestly. They actually came into this game rated in the Top 40 in both the Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings. But the results haven't come, and they are now 1-4 in games decided by four points or less. Three of those four close losses have come in ACC play, and they are now in serious Tournament trouble. They have zero wins against the RPI Top 75, and now a pair of bad losses to Boston College and Wake Forest. Their RPI has fallen to 82nd, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to be in a similar spot.

Offense has been a major issue for Virginia Tech in their recent slump. They have scored fewer than 0.90 PPP in each of their three ACC games thus far. The problem to me seems to be that the team has no quality post scorers. ACC opponents are squeezing them on the perimeter, and limiting their open jump shots.

This is Boston College's best win of the season, and that may still be a true statement on Selection Sunday. Wins over Clemson and Stony Brook are their only two other wins over the Pomeroy Top 200, and they have bad losses to Rhode Island, Holy Cross, Boston University, Penn State and others. It's been a long season. This win does push them to 2-1 in ACC play, though. Their next game will be Thursday at NC State.

Virginia Tech is now 0-3 in ACC play with a huge home game coming up on Thursday against North Carolina. And unfortunately for them, UNC is going to be very angry and motivated after an embarrassing loss to Florida State earlier today. With as poor as the ACC is this season, and without any big wins for Virginia Tech out-of-conference, the Hokies probably need to get to at least 9-7 in conference play to earn an at-large bid. It's going to be tough to dig out of a (likely) 0-4 hole. Their schedule doesn't ease up after that UNC game, either. Next Saturday they'll play at Virginia.

UMass 71, Saint Josephs' 62
Massachusetts has been playing well over the past few weeks, driven by an uptempo pressure defense. They are sixth in the nation in tempo (76.6 possessions per game) and 4th in the nation in steals per game (9.9). St. Joe's slowed this particular game down (65 possessions, by my count), but UMass still got their ten steals.

The Minutemen have now won eight of nine, and it's at the point that we've got to talk about their at-large chances. They are 14-4 overall and 3-1 in Atlantic Ten play, with only one bad loss (Charleston), though this is their best win of the season. Their RPI is all the way up to 61st, though their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is still going to be back in the 70-75 range. They're going to need quality wins for Selection Sunday. They have home games remaining against Saint Louis and Xavier, and also will play at Temple. If they can win one or two of those games and get to 10-6 or better in conference play, we'd have to at least consider their at-large hopes heading into the Atlantic Ten tournament. They will next play on Wednesday at Duquesne.

Saint Joe's played very well out of conference, beating Creighton and Villanova, with only one bad loss (American). But they are now only 2-2 in Atlantic Ten play against a soft schedule, suffering bad losses to UMass and Charlotte. They are now only 2-5 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that will slide out to the 55-60 range after this loss. They have a big game coming up on Wednesday at Xavier.

Fired Up FSU Eviscerates North Carolina

2012-01-14T18:23:00.004-05:00

Florida State 90, #3 North Carolina 57
Even during that horrible 2009-10 season when North Carolina lost 11 of 14 games at one point and ended up in the NIT, they still never had a game where they lost by 33. This was just a debacle in every conceivable way for them. They even struggled getting off the court at the end of the game. There was a bizarre moment with around 15 seconds remaining and just walk-ons left on the floor when Roy Williams and Leonard Hamilton agreed that for player safety they'd have the entire North Carolina bench head to the locker room. The five North Carolina walk-ons stood on the floor terribly confused by what was going on, and then were left to face the hordes of Florida State fans rushing the court all by themselves.

Florida State, a team that was hitting 30.2% of their threes this season, hit 12-for-27 (44%) here. They had a 58.1 eFG%, their best in an ACC game since they beat NC State 84-71 on January 15th, 2011. Their 12 steals were their most against an ACC opponent since they had 16 against Wake Forest on Feburary 1st, 2011. And their 1.18 PPP scored were their most in any game in more than two years. North Carolina, meanwhile, not only hit only 19% of threes but they only hit 45% of their free throws. Their 0.75 PPP were their worst since they had 0.67 against Georgia Tech during that horrible 3-11 stretch two seasons ago.

So the stats are staggering, but how much does this game mean? Obviously it's a great win for a Florida State team that desperately needed a big scalp for their resume. And obviously it's a loss that will harm North Carolina's chances of earning a 1 seed in March. But beyond that? This was clearly a fluke game. I don't think North Carolina forgot how to play basketball. They're still (in my opinion) one of the four best teams in the nation, and I'm going to continue projecting a 1 seed for them until they prove otherwise.

Prior to this game, Florida State had not beaten a single team this season inside the RPI Top 60. With a couple of bad losses (Princeton and Clemson), their resume was really starting to look shaky. They are now 2-1, but will need to finish at least 9-7 to have a good shot at an at-large bid. And unless they finish 10-6 or better, they're going to enter the ACC tournament with work left to do, even after this big win.

FSU will play Maryland on Tuesday, and then will head to Duke for a game next Saturday. North Carolina has a tough game up next, on the road Thursday night against a Virginia Tech team desperate for a big win.

Northwestern 81, #7 Michigan State 74
Michigan State's been flying high, having won 15 straight games coming in here. Northwestern had lost four of five coming in, and was in desperate need of a big win. Playing at home on a day that road teams have been losing all over the nation, this was a perfect combination for Northwestern. Northwestern was focused, and clicking offensively with 20 assists on 26 made baskets, and a 57.7 eFG%. For the Spartans, Keith Appling only shot 4-for-13 from the field, but he was their best player yet again. The shots weren't falling, but he was unstoppable getting to the basket and earned 13 free throws (he led the Spartans with 17 points scored).

This was almost a must-win for Northwestern after losing four of five to fall to 1-3 in Big Ten play. A loss here would have dropped them to 1-4 with a road game at Wisconsin coming up next. With the strength of the Big Ten, it's not inconceivable that Northwestern could earn an at-large bid with an 8-10 Big Ten record if they can win a couple of games in the Big Ten tournament, but even that would have been tough to achieve if they'd started the season 1-5.

Michigan State falls to 4-1 in Big Ten play with this loss, but they're still in excellent shape for a run at a Big Ten title. They're still tied for the conference lead with Illinois, and the reality is that nobody is going to go 16-2 or 15-3 in the Big Ten this season. I think that if any team gets to 14-4 they'll win the conference, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a group of teams share the Big Ten title at 13-5. The Spartans now head out to play at Michigan on Tuesday before coming home to play Purdue next Saturday.

#24 Marquette 62, Pittsburgh 57
This was almost a must-win game for Pittsburgh. They came in here having lost five straight and sitting at 0-4 in Big East play, coming off a horrendous thrashing at the hands of Rutgers. With a road game at Syracuse up next on Monday night, a loss here would have likely meant an 0-6 start to the Big East season. And you could see the desperation in their play - it was the best they've looked since their losing streak started. They managed to put up 0.98 PPP against a very good Marquette defense, which is an offensive explosion compared to the 0.93 PPP they had during their five game losing streak against softer defenses. Ashton Gibbs played very well, hitting 4-for-8 behind the arc and finishing with 29 points. But down the stretch Marquette was able to match Pitt's intensity, and they pulled out the victory.

Pittsburgh's best wins this season came against Oklahoma State, Tennessee and La Salle, and they have losses to Wagner, Rutgers and DePaul. They're 7-7 against the RPI Top 200, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has flown all the way out of the Top 100. Unless they pull that upset at the Carrier Dome on Monday, their at-large hopes are going to start looking fairly bleak.

Marquette moves to 3-2 in the Big East with this win. With as soft as the non-Syracuse teams in the Big East look this season, the Golden Eagles have as much of a chance at finishing second in the conference standings as anybody else. They'll play Louisville on Monday and then will go on the road to face Providence next Saturday.

Oklahoma Upsets Kansas State

2012-01-14T17:01:00.000-05:00

Oklahoma 82, #18 Kansas State 73
Kansas State had played well over the past week, beating down Missouri and then nearly taking out Baylor (they lost by two points). But the concern for Kansas State is always that they're a totally different team away from home. And while they did win at Virginia Tech back in early December, their first road game in conference was that embarrassing destruction at the hands of Kansas, and they were handled pretty easily by Oklahoma here. The Sooners grabbed a double-digit lead in the first half and then led by around 10-15 points the rest of the way.

The Wildcats have struggled to shoot in all of their road games, and that continued here. They launched 30 three-pointers, hitting only 10. Their sloppy play also continued - they had 18 turnovers, their second straight game where they've turned the ball over on more than 25% of possessions. Oklahoma got a big game from Andrew Fitzgerald, who scored in double-digits for his 11th straight game with 21 points on 9-for-10 shooting.

Kansas State is now 12-4 with wins over Missouri, Alabama and Virginia Tech, and only one iffy loss (here, to Oklahoma). But the concern, besides their road woes, is the fact that they're now 1-3 in Big 12 play with a tough game coming up against Texas on Wednesday, followed by a road game at Oklahoma State next Saturday. They probably need to get to 9-9 in conference play to make the NCAA Tournament, so they can't afford to fall too far below .500.

This was an important win for Oklahoma as it avoided an 0-4 start to Big 12 play. They don't have any really bad losses (though a road loss at Oklahoma State isn't looking too good right now) but they don't have any big wins either (Oral Roberts and Arkansas are their two other wins over the RPI Top 100). They can get on the Tournament bubble if they can get to 9-9 in Big 12 play, and that wasn't going to happen if they started 0-4. It's still an uphill battle, but they'll have a good opportunity to move to 2-3 at home on Tuesday against Texas Tech, and then they'll head on the road to play Texas A&M next Saturday.

Iowa 75, #13 Michigan 59
Iowa's change the past few weeks has been tremendous, and they're becoming a team that you don't want to face in Big Ten play (though to be fair... which team would you want to face in the Big Ten this season? The depth is tremendous). Their best win in non-conference play came at home against Drake, and they lost to Campbell and Clemson. But in Big Ten play they've knocked out a pair of ranked teams (Wisconsin and Michigan) as well as Minnesota, and only lost by three points to Purdue. They're now 3-3 in Big Ten play, only a game out of third place in the conference. What's been the big change in their play? Not much, honestly. They're shooting a little bit better, they're playing slightly better defense, and they're certainly getting to the free throw line more (they got to the line 28 times in this game). So they're being more aggressive offensively, but there hasn't been any huge change. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don't.

Michigan had been getting some hype as a team that could contend for the Big Ten title, after they had moved to 4-1 in Big Ten play, ahead of teams like Ohio State and Indiana. But the reality is that they're not as good as they're ranking in the polls. Coming into this game they were rated 29th in Pomeroy and 34th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, and they'll obviously drop after this loss. They shouldn't have much trouble getting to the 9 Big Ten wins that will probably seal their spot in the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't expect to see them win more than 10 or 11 games.

Iowa is rising in the Big Ten standings and in the computer ratings. They're nearly the Top 100 in all of the computer ratings, and at 3-3 in the Big Ten find themselves in the middle of the pack. That said, the Big Ten is too good this season for Iowa to win consistently. They'll pull another upset or two, but I don't see any way they're still in the middle of the pack in March.

#9 Missouri 84, Texas 73
This game was a three-point shooting contest, and Missouri just shot a little bit better. Missouri hit their first seven three-pointers, opening up a 33-19 lead. The game was even the rest of the way, but Missouri's offense was just too good and Texas couldn't get enough stops to close the game. J'Covan Brown did look like his old self for the first time since getting hurt, and he finished with 34 points on 6-for-7 shooting behind the arc (as well as 8-for-8 at the line). For Missouri, Flip Pressey led the way with a tremendously efficient 18 points, 10 assists and 0 turnovers. Texas did out-rebound Missouri and they didn't have too many turnovers. Their defense just struggled with the slashing Missouri guards - their help defense in particular needs work.

Texas is a team that is tough to count out. They've only lost three times this season when J'Covan Brown was able to play the entire game, and one of those games was in overtime and the other two were to North Carolina and Missouri. That said, they've done a lot of damage to their NCAA Tournament resume with these losses. They're better than most people outside the Big 12 realize, but it's looking more and more like Kansas is the team to beat in the Big 12, rather than Texas. Missouri and Baylor will also have their say in the conference title, though I think Baylor is a little overrated.

Texas falls to 2-2 in Big 12 play after this loss, and they won't get a chance to dwell on it too long. They'll play at Kansas State on Wednesday, and then will return to Austin to play Kansas next Saturday. Missouri moves to 16-1 and 3-1 in the Big 12, though the one thing they have yet to prove is that they can play well on the road. They've played three true road games - they got waxed by Kansas State, and taken to the wire by Old Dominion and Iowa State. They'll play Texas A&M at home on Monday, but then will start testing themselves on the road. They'll be at Baylor next Saturday, and also will play road games at Texas and Oklahoma State before February.

UConn Impresses At Notre Dame

2012-01-14T14:17:00.000-05:00

#16 UConn 67, Notre Dame 53
UConn found out yesterday that Ryan Boatright would be suspended for this game as his academic eligibility continues to be an issue (he missed the start of the season with a suspension as well). Considering the improved play from Notre Dame the past few weeks and that they entered this game on a 29-game home winning streak, I thought that they'd actually win this game. The final score makes this game seem like more of a blowout than it really was, of course. The Irish led by a point at halftime and were only down by four points halfway through the second half. But then their offense abandoned them - over the next five minutes they shot 0-for-6 from the field, committed two turnovers, and were outscored 9-0.

As has been the case for most of this season, Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi dominated the paint defensively. They only combined for four blocks, but their presence changes the direction of so many other shots. They are 215th in the nation in 3P% against, but are 1st in the nation in 2P% against, which tells you all you need to know about this UConn defense. Notre Dame is not a good three-point shooting team, but they ended up taking 26 of them here because they couldn't get anything to fall inside.

The Huskies are now 13-3 with wins over West Virginia, Harvard, Florida State, Arkansas and Notre Dame, along with bad losses to Rutgers and UCF. But despite the fact that they're going to move inside the Top 15 in the human polls on Monday and are considered by many to be the best team in the Big East not named Syracuse, the reality is that they're still outside the Top 30 in the Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings, and they're only 4-2 in Big East play despite a fairly soft schedule. Their schedule is going to tick up to another level when they hit February. For now they'll head home to play Cincinnati on Wednesday.

The Irish are 3-2 in Big East play, though their overall resume is still fairly soft. They are 11-7 overall with wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh balanced against bad losses to Georgia and Maryland. They'll have to get to 10-8 in Big East play to have a real shot at an at-large bid heading into the Big East tournament. They'll try to move to 4-2 on Monday at a surging Rutgers team. Then they'll come home for a game next Saturday against Syracuse.

#21 Creighton 87, Illinois State 78
Creighton shot the lights out, led by Doug McDermott. What else is new? Creighton had a 66.1 eFG% here, pushing their nation leading season average to 59.1%. McDermott personally shot 9-for-14 from the field, pushing his own eFG% up to 68.5%, third best in the nation. That he's third in the nation in eFG% is all the more amazing when you consider that he's Creighton's superstar and he takes a Jimmer Fredette-like 35.7% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, much more than Jordan Hulls (19.0%) or Kim English (20.6%), the two players ahead of him.

That said, Creighton nearly blew an 18 point lead with 9:30 to go. Illinois State hit 10-for-12 from the field during a 26-11 run over the next 8 minutes. But they couldn't get the margin closer than two points, and then things got ugly in the final 30 seconds. Down by three, Illinois State's Johnny Hill tried to commit a foul to put Creighton to the line with around 25 seconds to go, but after committing the foul he then gave a second, hard, shove. Refs called him for an intentional foul, and Illinois State fans were displeased, to say the least. And unfortunately, the Illinois State fans had been handed out some little white balls, which they proceeded to throw on the court. After being warned by the refs they did it again, giving their team another technical foul. Creighton ended up taking 12 free throws over the next 20 seconds, during which Illinois State had two offensive possessions. That's why the final margin of victory stretched all the way out to 9 points.

Creighton has already played their four serious contenders for the Missouri Valley title (Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Illinois State) and have impressed. They're now 5-1 and tied for the conference lead with Wichita State, a team that they've already beaten at the Roundhouse. They've been my pick since April to win the Missouri Valley this season, and they're heavy favorites now to take the Valley's regular season title. They'll play Southern Illinois tomorrow, but have an important game coming up on Wednesday at Missouri State, the one Valley team to beat them so far. A win there would really consolidate their lead in the standings.

Illinois State is a good enough team that with a little bit of luck they could have worked their way onto the at-large bubble, but unfortunately they haven't had a lot of luck so far. They've fallen just short against Wichita State, Creighton and Illinois. They do have wins over Northern Iowa and Missouri State, but also have bad losses to Fresno State, UNC-Wilmington and Southern Illinois, and are only 3-3 in Missouri Valley play. Their RPI has fallen to 11th. They'll have to finish at least 12-6 to have a shot at an at-large bid heading into Arch Madness. Their next game will be Sunday at Drake.

Cincinnati 82, Villanova 78
This was a tigh game between two teams heading in opposite directions this season. The Bearcats have now won nine of ten since that brawl with Xavier, including victories over Georgetown, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Villanova, on the other hand, has lost five of six and is only 8-10 overall this season. Maalik Wayns tried to take Villanova on his back and scored 39 points (on 12-for-22 shooting), and adding 13 rebounds and 6 assists. But Villanova's defense, which has been a liability all season long, couldn't get a stop against Cincinnati. They forced three turnovers the entire game, which is typical for a Villanova team that is tied for 310th in the nation with only 11.2 turnovers forced per game. It was why Cincinnati shot only 40.9% from the field and had only 8 offensive rebounds, yet still scored 1.12 PPP.

Cincinnati moves to 4-1 in the Big East with this win, which actually puts them alone in second place in the Big East standings. I don't think anybody believes that they'll end the season there, of course. Their schedule is going to get tougher, beginning with next week when they'll play at UConn on Wednesday, and at West Virginia on Saturday. But they only need to get to 10-8 in Big East play to (probably) earn an at-large bid, so they're in a good position.

Villanova falls to 1-5 in Big East play with this loss, and their one win was at home against DePaul. I don't think they'll finish in 15th place in the Big East (which is where they are at the moment), but I haven't seen any evidence that they'll win more than a smattering of games the rest of the season. They'll play Seton Hall at home on Wednesday, and then at St. John's next Saturday.

Duke escapes Virginia

2012-01-14T12:24:00.012-05:00

#6 Duke 61, #17 Virginia 58
I don't mean to pick on Seth Davis on my twitter account so often. He's not really any worse than most of the other television analysts. Like most of them, he doesn't understand tempo-free stats. As I like to say, if you tell your team to hold the ball for an extra ten seconds on every offensive possession then you're going to give up fewer points, but it doesn't mean your defense got better. Nobody argues that Pomeroy stats or any of the other tempo-free stats are the gospel, or that the team rated the #1 Pomeroy offense or defense is definitely the best offense/defense in the nation, but it's just sad how wrong some of the television analysts are. Seth Davis started out last week complaining about Duke's offense. When somebody on twitter pointed out to him that they were the #4 rated offense in Pomeroy, Davis responded: "You realize how little that means? Watch. Them. Play." Yeah, Seth Davis, I guess I have to watch Duke play to learn that the team that is #4 in the nation in eFG%, #4 in the nation in FTA/FGA, #7 in the nation in true shooting percentage, #6 in the nation in offensive block percentage, and tied for the ACC led in offensive turnover percentage sucks at offense.

Seth Davis was back at it during this Duke/Virginia game. He inexplicably said: "We think of Tony Bennett's deliberate offense but he's very underrated as defensive coach." Huh? Who thinks of Tony Bennett and the first thing that comes to mind is offense? As Ken Pomeroy joked: "The only people who don't know Bennett is a defensive genius are the uncontacted tribes of the Amazon." Of course, while most people recognize what a tremendous defensive coach Tony Bennett is (Pomeroy rates their offense 97th in the land, and rates their defense 9th), tempo-bias has impacted the national perception of Mike Scott. In this game Mike Scott scored 16 points in the first half alone, and so for the first time I noticed mainstream analysts start to give him some of the credit he is due. Obviously the Pomeroy ORtg is a flawed statistic, but it's worth noting that Mike Scott is currently rated 3rd in the nation in it, and leads all BCS conference players (Terrell Stoglin is second and Thomas Robinson is third). I'm not saying he should be the National Player of the Year, but Mike Scott definitely should be a serious contender for ACC Player of the Year and for some All-American love.

All that said, the problem for Virginia this season is that besides Mike Scott they don't have any real elite ACC-level talent. And that's why offensively they've got major problems. Mike Scott can't beat Duke by himself. Here, the Cavaliers really struggled with Duke's perimeter defense, and all of the players other than Scott combined for a 35.7 eFG%. Tony Bennett will eventually have an elite team if he can get some better talent, but this year's team is going to be limited in what they can achieve because of that offense.

Duke is off to a quick 2-0 start to ACC play with this win and wins over Kansas, Michigan State, Michigan and Belmont, and zero bad losses. Right now they're looking more than anything like a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but a 1 seed is theirs for the taking if they can knock off North Carolina and win the ACC. They won't get their first shot at the Tar Heels until February, however. They'll play at Clemson tomorrow, and then will come home to play Wake Forest on Thursday.

Virginia is now 14-2 with wins over Michigan and Miami (Fl), along with a bad loss to TCU. Their soft non-conference schedule along with a down ACC means that they've probably got to reach 9 wins in ACC play to put themselves into the NCAA Tournament. I don't think they'll have too much trouble getting there, though. They're 1-1 now with a road game at Georgia Tech up next, on Thursday.

South Florida 56, Seton Hall 55
This was Seton Hall's first game since moving into the Top 25 in the AP Poll, and it wasn't a huge shock to see them go down to South Florida. Seton Hall isn't that much better (Pomeroy projected a four point win), and it's common for teams to struggle in their first game in the Top 25 in a long while (it's been approximately ten years for Seton Hall). The Top 25 brings a lot of pressure, and brings extra effort from opponents. USF just out-efforted Seton Hall here, winning nearly every 50-50 ball.

That said, foul shooting seemed to do in both teams in the final few seconds, during a bizarre finish. After Seton Hall had cut the deficit to one point with 23 seconds to go, they put Jawanza Poland to the line, where he missed the front end of a one-and-one to give Seton Hall a chance to win. Then, Anthony Collins inexplicably fouled Jordan Theodore with 3.8 seconds to go - it almost looked like he thought his team had a foul to give. Instead, Theodore had a 1-and-1... and he missed the front end, and USF managed to clear the rebound to secure the win.

This is a bad loss, and it cost Seton Hall a chance to move to 5-1 in Big East play. But even so, they still have a buffer between them and the bubble. They are still 15-3 overall with wins over UConn, West Virginia, Dayton, VCU and St. Joe's, and only this one bad loss. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is still 21st in the nation. A 9-9 Big East finish should be sufficient to get them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll play at Villanova on Wednesday, and then will have a week off before a home game against Notre Dame.

USF came into this game only 8-8 against Division I teams with decent wins over Villanova and Cleveland State more than drowned out by bad losses to Auburn, Old Dominion and Penn State. But that said, they're now 3-2 in Big East play and playing better. Their RPI is actually all the way up to 96th. I don't think that even their most diehard fans think they have a realistic path to an at-large bid, but they can plausibly make a run at a 9-9 Big East record, which would be a great achievement for a program that has only finished better than 4-14 a single time in six previous Big East seasons.

Cleveland State 76, Butler 69
Butler actually hit 10 of their 21 three-point attempts in this game, and they got a gift from the refs in the form of a 12 foul difference (28 to 16), a stat that would have been even worse if Butler hadn't been forced to commit five fouls in the final 80 seconds in a desperate attempt to overcome a late deficit. How did Cleveland State manage to overcome those two facts to win this game? They dominated the paint. They won the rebounding battle (a 33.3 OR% compared to a 21.4 OR% for Butler) and held the Bulldogs to only a 33.3 2P%. This is actually atypical from a Cleveland State team that was outrebounded in their previous five games and is 25th in the nation in 3P% against but only 197th in 2P% against.

Coming off a home loss to Detroit, Butler is now 3-3 in Horizon League play, a full two games back of Cleveland State having already lost their home match-up. Certainly Cleveland State is now the clear favorite to win the Horizon League regular season title. But does that make them the Horizon League tournament favorites? I'm hesitant to go there. Butler proved last season that they can struggle in December and January but turn things on when we hit tournament season. And I'm seeing improvement from this team. Brad Stevens is starting to take the ball out of the hands of Crishawn Hopkins, who's had a horrific season (he takes 29.9% of Butler's shots when he's on the floor, to the tune of a 39.2 eFG% - the worst on the team among regulars). They're starting to shoot better, and Khyle Marshall and Roosevelt Jones have the potential to be a dominant rebounding duo. I'm still not ready to give up on Butler.

Cleveland State will try to avoid a letdown game tomorrow at Valparaiso. Next weekend they'll come home to play the two Wisconsin teams. Butler will try to bounce back tomorrow against a feisty Youngstown State team. Next week they'll head on the road to play Loyola-Chicago and Illinois-Chicago.

Saint Mary's Destroys Gonzaga

2012-01-14T10:54:00.007-05:00

Saint Mary's 83, #23 Gonzaga 62
This game was actually relatively close in the first half, with the Saint Mary's lead peaking at around nine points, but the Gaels pulled away in the second half. The Gaels were tremendously efficient, totaling up 21 assists and only 5 turnovers as a team. Matthew Dellavedova was on fire (5-for-10 on threes, 5-for-6 on twos) and Brad Waldow added 17. The front line was the biggest concern for Gonzaga, which was surprising after how well Robert Sacre and Sam Dower have played the past few weeks. Sacre actually got benched to start the second half, though it didn't really help.

The difference between first, second and third place in the WCC is going to be huge this season. The WCC gives double-byes for the 1 and 2 seeds, right into the WCC tournament semifinals. In addition, this year the conference has added BYU, a third elite team. No other team in the conference is remotely in the same league as Gonzaga, Saint Mary's or BYU. Earning the 1 seed means a double-bye to the tournament semis, against a relatively easy opponent. Earning the 2 seed means a double-bye, but then likely having to beat the other two elite teams to win the tournament. The 3 seed will have to win a quarterfinal game before even having to win those two straight games over elite opponents. And right now, Saint Mary's has held serve on their homecourt, taking care of both BYU and Gonzaga. But that said, Saint Mary's has been a very different team at home and on the road road the past decade, and so it wouldn't be that surprising if they fall in their two road games.

The Gaels have an easy upcoming schedule, getting Portland, Pepperdine, Santa Clara and Loyola-Marymount as their next four opponents. Their road game at BYU will be January 28th and their road game at Gonzaga will be February 9th. At 15-2 with this win and a win over Northern Iowa, and only one iffy loss (Denver), even a 12-4 conference record should lock Saint Mary's into the NCAA Tournament. So even if they lose to both BYU and Gonzaga, they still will be fine unless they suffer a few upsets to lower-tier WCC teams.

This was Gonzaga's first game this season against either Saint Mary's or BYU. They'll be disappointed in their level of play, but the reality is that on Selection Sunday it will just be a single loss on the road to a quality opponent. Saint Mary's is great at home, and Gonzaga was an underdog here. They are 13-3 now with wins over Xavier and Arizona and no bad losses. An 11-5 conference record will put them in the NCAA Tournament, and they'll even have a good shot if they go 10-6 and do some damage in the WCC tournament. They're 3-1 now and have a pretty easy next couple of weeks (at Loyola-Marymount, vs San Francisco, vs San Diego, at Portland).

New Mexico State 80, Utah State 60
The WAC has been a tight battle at the top all season long. Back in April I picked New Mexico State as the narrow favorite over Utah State. I thought Nevada would be another quality team, and put them third. But then Troy Gillenwater entered the NBA Draft and I switched my pick back to Utah State, the three-time defending WAC regular season champions. In non-conference play, Utah State was actually the weakest of the three. Other than an upset of BYU in their season opener, they didn't have any quality wins, and they had bad losses to Pacific, Weber State and Texas A&M-CC. I was willing to give them a pass until they got into WAC play, though. Neither New Mexico State or Nevada was that much better, and Stew Morrill always seems to find ways to win in the WAC, even with four starters missing from last season.

But that was before Utah State got into conference play. Yes, this game was at New Mexico State and things will be very different at the Spectrum, but this game was a romp. New Mexico State had eight more offensive rebounds, four fewer turnovers, and shot the ball better. And Utah State is coming off a home loss to Nevada. I don't see any signs that this Utah State team is going to turn things around, and for now I've got to drop them from the top of the WAC.

Who is the new favorite in the WAC? I think it has to be New Mexico State. They only have one big win (New Mexico), but also came very close to upsets over Southern Miss (twice) and Arizona. They're up to 85th in the Pomeroy ratings, and 66th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. It's unlikely that they're going to make a play for an at-large bid, but for now they're the WAC favorites.

New Mexico State will play Idaho later today, and then will head to San Jose State for a game on Thursday. Utah State will play at Louisiana Tech later today, and then at Seattle on Thursday. Seattle is still an Independent officially for this season, but next season will be part of the WAC, so this will be something of a dress rehearsal.

California 57, Colorado 50
Believe it or not, this was something of a "reality check" game for Colorado. The Buffaloes had gone 6-4 in non-conference play against Division I opponents with zero quality wins and bad losses to Maryland and Colorado State, but then had jumped out to a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play. I know that the Pac-12 stinks, but... still, you had to figure Colorado's lead was on borrowed time. California, Stanford and Arizona have all been clearly better teams this season (Arizona has been my pick all season long to win the conference).

Colorado actually led most of the way here, but a 12-2 run by the Cal Bears turned this game around, and they ended up pulling away in the final couple of minutes. Harper Kamp led the way with 14 points on 6-for-12 shooting, helping the team overcome a brutal 2-for-17 shooting performance by Jorge Gutierrez (who also went 1-for-4 at the line and missed a pair that could have put the game away with 22 seconds to go). Richard Solomon also gave them a nice spark off the bench, with six points and a pair of steals in only 12 minutes.

This result gives us a big logjam atop the Pac-12. Five different teams have a single loss this season, including Stanford, California and Arizona. California gets a home game against Utah today, which you'd think should be a 20-30 point romp, though nothing is certain in the Pac-12 this season. Next week they'll head on the road to play the two Washington teams. Colorado has a tough road game later today against Stanford. Next week they'll be at home to play the two Arizona schools.

Indiana Falls At Home To Minnesota

2012-01-13T23:58:00.000-05:00

Minnesota 77, #8 Indiana 74
I talked almost two weeks ago about Indiana and games like this. Their wins over Ohio State and Kentucky were tremendous, but I pointed out that pulling a couple of big upset wins is not all a team needs to contend for a Big Ten title or a 2, 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The next step an elite team has to take is to consistently win the games they're "supposed" to win. It's one thing to get up emotionally for a couple of huge games - bringing it night in and night out against mid-conference teams is more mentally difficult. Their first real test in that sense was Minnesota, and the Gophers just out-efforted them for most of the night. Minnesota destroyed the Hoosiers on the boards, finishing with a 44.4 OR%. The Hoosiers showed some life in the final 90 seconds, but trying to come back from a nine point deficit just was too much.

Austin Hollins, who had 18 points on 7-for-10 shooting, was the star for the Gophers. He also had two of the eight blocks Minnesota had. The Gophers did a good job of controlling the paint against Indiana. Cody Zeller got his 23 points, but that was the extent of Indiana's paint offense.

This was nearly a must-win for the Gophers. They came into this game 0-4 in Big Ten play. With a win over Virginia Tech out of conference and only one bad loss so far (Iowa), Minnesota could potentially earn an at-large bid if they can get to 8-10 in conference play, but finishing 8-5 in their final 13 games would have been difficult. They have six games left against teams in the Pomeroy Top Ten. Now at 1-4 with a big win over Indiana they still have an uphill battle to an at-large bid, but it's more plausible now. They will play at Penn State on Sunday, and then will have a week off before a home game against Northwestern.

Indiana falls to 3-2 in Big Ten play with this loss, with a road game at Ohio State coming up on Sunday. With an upset win they'll be right back in the Big Ten title race, but I'd bet against that. It's going to be a revenge game for Ohio State, and Indiana needed a bunch of breaks to win their home game over OSU. A loss will drop them to 3-3, though with a couple of easy games ahead (at Nebraska, vs Penn State).

Wisconsin 67, Purdue 62
I think a lot of people overreacted too much to Wisconsin's three game losing streak. They scored only 0.93 PPP over those three games, but it seemed to me that they were just missing wide open shots. The offense was still moving pretty well, and they were rebounding well and weren't turning the ball over. They were just ice cold from the field (their best shooting performance in those three games was a 38.2 eFG%). They had a more normal 58.8 eFG% here. Purdue was also a good match-up for Wisconsin since they're so dependent on threes (they are second in the Big Ten in the percentage of points scored on threes) and Wisconsin is so good at stopping the three (only 19.2% of points allowed by Wisconsin this season have been on threes, tied for the 7th best in the nation).

That all said, and despite the fact that Lewis Jackson only played half of this game because of a back injury, Purdue still could have won this game. They had eight more offensive rebounds and eight fewer turnovers than the Badgers. But they hit only 54.5% of their free throws, and that more than anything seemed to constantly stunt their momentum every time they went on a run.

The three game losing streak cost Wisconsin any realistic chance at the Big Ten title, but they're back to 2-3 now with a relatively easy schedule upcoming. They'll play Nebraska on Sunday, and then Northwestern on Wednesday. Purdue falls to 3-2 in Big Ten play with this loss, and I saw multiple people on twitter last night saying that Purdue's inability to close out Wisconsin at home meant that they weren't a Tournament team, but I don't see how Purdue is even a bubble team. They're 13-5 overall with wins over Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, Miami (Fl) and Iona, along with iffy losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 30th, and their PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings are both inside the Top 30. A 9-9 or better record in conference play should put them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll try to move to 4-2 on Tuesday against Iowa.

Temple 72, Saint Louis 67
Temple had a tremendous offensive performance here, and it led to a really nice road victory. St. Louis is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, and Temple torched them for a 61.3 eFG%. Khalif Wyatt had another big game, scoring 22 points on 9-for-12 shooting. Wyatt doesn't get a lot of national attention (in fact, he's probably the third most well-known Temple Owl after Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore), but he's having a tremendous season. He's scored in double-digits for eight straight games, averaging 17.5 points per game over that stretch. He's scored 20+ in his last three games, and his 60.5 true shooting percentage this season is 9th best among all Atlantic Ten players.

While Saint Louis will be disappointed to lose at home to a team they're going to be dueling against for the conference title, the reality is that (other than shooting the ball) they outplayed Temple. They committed three fewer turnovers and had 11 more offensive rebounds. In fact, despite being ranked 228th in the nation with a 30.9 OR% for the season, they've been improving dramatically in that category as the season has gone along. They had an OR% under 30% in each of their first six games of the season, but have surpassed that mark in 10 of 11 games since. In fact, in three Atlantic Ten games so far they're averaging a 39.6 OR%, which is second best in the conference. With as good as they play defensively and as well as they hit threes, if they can become a consistently good offensive rebounding team then they'll really start looking like a potential Sweet 16 team.

Saint Louis is only 1-2 in Atlantic Ten play, but both losses have been to quality opponents (Temple and Dayton). In fact, they only have one bad loss this season (Loyola-Marymount). But despite being rated 16th in the Pomeroy ratings and 19th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, they haven't been able to close the deal against quality opponents. They are 0-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime, and are 331st in the nation in Pomeroy Luck rating. You don't get credit for bad luck on Selection Sunday, and they're 0-2 against the RPI Top 50 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 77th. The Billikens will probably need to get to 10-6 or better in Atlantic Ten play to earn an at-large bid. They'll play at Charlotte tomorrow, and then have a week off before getting Duquesne at home.

Temple needed this win to stay in control of the Atlantic Ten. A loss here actually would have dropped them to 0-2. Instead they are 1-1 heading into a road game at Richmond tomorrow, and then a home game against La Salle on Wednesday. With wins over Duke, Wichita State and St. Louis, and just one bad loss (Bowling Green), Temple is in good shape for an at-large Tournament bid (and they've been my pick to win that conference's auto bid all season long anyway). A 10-6 finish in conference play should just about lock them into the Tournament.

Did Pittsburgh Hit Rock Bottom Against Rutgers?

2012-01-13T22:13:00.005-05:00

Rutgers 62, Pittsburgh 39
Pittsburgh is now in a five game losing streak, and this game was the worst of the bunch. What's been killing them, more than anything, has been atrocious offensive efficiency. It's not that they're just missing open shots (though they are doing some of that as well). What it's been has just been a lack of offensive movement or flow. Whoever has the ball just wildly attacks the rim and throws the ball up. They have some great offensive rebounders (they lead the nation with a 45.9 OR%), and at times it feels like they're intentionally throwing the ball off the rim to try to get points off offensive boards. But as bad as their offense has been, this game was the absolute worst. They finished with a 24.6 eFG% and 0.56 PPP. That shooting is tied for the 8th worst shooting performance by any Division I team this season - the only team that was worse was Utah with a 24.5 eFG% during a 73-33 abomination against Colorado. The 0.56 PPP were also the worst by any BCS conference team this season other than that same Utah team in that same game. Anytime you've got a stat that has only been outdone by this year's Utah team (the worst BCS conference team in modern memory) you've got a problem.

Remember, this Pittsburgh team was rated by Pomeroy as one of the ten most efficient offenses in the nation in three of the past four years. They're were 5th in the nation last season. The biggest problem is clearly the lack of Travon Woodall, who has missed nine of the past ten games with an abdominal injury. He had double-digit assists in four of the seven games he played in before he was hurt and is averaging 2.2 A/TO, right in line with the 2.3 A/TO he averaged last season. The rest of the team is averaging only 12.9 assists per game with a ratio of 1.15 A/TO. That's not the whole problem, of course. Pitt's defense has been putrid as well. But over this five game losing streak they're allowing 1.05 PPP while scoring only 0.91 PPP. And if they clean up the offense, their defense will improve along with it. Defense is mental.

So will we look back on this game as the point where Pitt's season hit rock bottom? Panthers fans will certainly hope that's the case. They are now 0-4, needing to get to at least 8-10 to even have a chance at an at-large bid heading into the Big East tournament (and more realistically, when you consider their soft non-conference schedule, they've got to get to 9-9). And now? They head on the road to play Marquette (on Saturday) and Syracuse (Monday). Can they come back from 0-6? Probably not. They've really got to find a way to steal one of these two upcoming games. Their February schedule is soft, but it would be asking a lot of even a Pitt team playing well to go 9-3 over a 12 game stretch in Big East play.

This is the second straight big win for Rutgers, coming off a road win over UConn. They're now 2-2 in Big East play with wins over Florida, UConn and Pitt, along with bad losses to Princeton, USF, LSU, Richmond and Illinois State. They'd have to finish at least 11-7 in Big East play to even be considered for an at-large bid, and that's not going to happen, but they could continue to be a tough beat the rest of the season. They'll play at West Virginia tomorrow and then will come home to play Notre Dame on Monday.

Memphis 60, Southern Miss 58
Memphis has had a stranglehold on Conference USA since the Big East raided it after the 2004-05 season. In the six seasons since they've won four regular season titles and five tournament titles. And they came into this season the clear team to beat, and retain that position even after scuffling a bit to start the year. Southern Miss has emerged as perhaps their top rival, and had a real chance on the road to grab control of the Conference USA standings. And they had their chance here while holding Memphis to only 0.92 PPP. But the Memphis pressure defense is tough and Southern Miss looked to be very confused by the Memphis zone. The Golden Eagles took 49% of their shots behind the arc, hitting only 29% of them. Overall they finished with only a 42.1 eFG%, and only got to the line 17 times (their 0.30 FTA/FGA ratio was their worst in more than a month).

Memphis is off to a quick 2-0 record in Conference USA, though they still have their road tests to come. Their top contenders in Conference USA are Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF, Tulane and Tulsa, in some order. They still have road games to play against every one of those teams. They can't afford to finish worse than 11-5 to earn an at-large bid, and probably need to finish 12-4 or even better to have a good chance, so they'll have to win some of those road games.

This is a disappointing loss for Southern Miss, but they're still 2-1 in conference play and 15-3 overall with a pair of wins over New Mexico State and a win over Ole Miss to go with an iffy loss to Denver. They'll get a return visit from Memphis, but without a win there will head into Selection Sunday without any big wins. That means they're going to need an overwhelming won/loss record and very good computer numbers to earn an at-large bid. They probably need to get to 12-4 in conference play. At 11-5 they'll enter the C-USA tournament with work left to do. They'll play UAB at home tomorrow and then will have a week to prepare for an important home game against Marshall.

Ole Miss 71, Arkansas 63
Arkansas had been showing life the past couple of weeks and looked like they were finally starting to get Mike Anderson's system. They don't have a lot of talent, but they're figuring out how to get a lot of free offense off of their frenetic full court press and uptempo defense. Their 17.9 turnovers forced per game are third most among BCS conference teams (behind Syracuse and Oregon State). They had won seven straight coming into this game, including a nice home win over Mississippi State.

But the lack of talent is going to hold Arkansas back all season long. Their half court offense is poor, and their frenetic style exacerbates what was already a poor defensive rebounding team (they were the second worst defensive rebounding team in SEC play last season). Ole Miss destroyed them on the boards with a 60.0 OR% here.

This was something of a "reality check" game for Arkansas. They're getting better, but they still don't have enough talent and haven't learned Mike Anderson's system well enough to make a realistic run at an at-large bid. They are 12-4 overall and 1-1 in SEC play, but that win over Mississippi State is their only against the RPI Top 75, and they have bad losses to Houston, Oklahoma and now Ole Miss. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 94th, and would have to be inside the Top 60 for Arkansas to get seriously considered on Selection Sunday. They have an important home game tomorrow against LSU before going on the road to play Kentucky on Tuesday.

Despite being disliked by the computers (they're rated 125th by Pomeroy and 121st by the Sagarin PREDICTOR), Ole Miss actually has a better resume than Arkansas so far. They have a win over the University of Miami to go with this win, and they have no bad losses. A 5-1 record in games decided by four points or less is the biggest reason for their inflated resume. They'll pick up some bad losses in conference play, though, and I don't that their strong resume numbers (they're 51st in the Sagarin ELO_CHESS and 53rd in RPI) will hold for much longer.

Illinois Stuns Ohio State

2012-01-12T23:38:00.000-05:00

Illinois 79, #5 Ohio State 74
To say Brandon Paul had a great game here is an understatement. He finished with 43 points, including 8-for-10 on three-pointers. And Ohio State has excellent perimeter defenders that were trying to stop him all night long, they just couldn't. Anything he threw up went in. Offensively, Ohio State actually played fairly well. DeShaun Thomas scored 23 points on 8-for-12 shooting, and as a team the Buckeyes scored 1.12 PPP.

This game is one of several signs that the Big Ten is going to be a battle nightly. No game is going to be a gimme, and even the best teams are going to lose their share of games. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if no team manages to finish better than 13-5 in conference play. If any team gets to 14-4, I think they'll earn the title. Ohio State has lost a pair of games, but both were on the road against quality teams (the other was against Indiana), and they're definitely still the favorite (in my opinion) to win the conference. Michigan State, off to a quick 4-0 start, looks to be their top rivals. Indiana will be another.

The Buckeyes will get ready now for a huge home game on Sunday against Indiana. It will be a revenge game, but also an imperative game for them to stay in the thick of the Big Ten title hunt. Their next game after that will be on the road at Nebraska. They still will have to play a home-and-home against Michigan State, but those games won't start for a few weeks. The first will be in Columbus on February 11th. The return trip to East Lansing will be on March 4th.

Illinois started 2012 looking like a true bubble team, but they're now 3-0 in this calendar year with wins over Ohio State, Northwestern and Nebraska. They are now 4-1 with a road game at Penn State up next, a week from today. But beware, road games at Penn State are going to be difficult this season. They'll play extremely hard, and will win the game if the Illini don't match their effort level.

#13 Michigan 66, Northwestern 64, OT
Another tough, hard-fought loss for Northwestern. This is the type of game that Northwestern always seems to lose. The Wildcats shot the ball well (46.2 3P%, 56.3 eFG%), but they couldn't handle Michigan's athleticism on the boards (Michigan had a 34.1 OR%, compared to a 13.6 OR% for Northwestern). Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. both played all 45 minutes for Michigan, and Hardaway's 5-for-9 behind the arc was a big key. Burke was explosive as well, and even though he didn't score much he did create a lot for his teammates with seven assists.

This is the second straight heart-breaking loss for Northwestern, coming off a one-point loss to Illinois where they had dominated for the entire first half but fell apart late in the second. If they had somehow won both of those games they'd be 3-1 and looking firmly on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid. But as it seems to happen every season, Northwestern lost both and is now 1-3 and looking like yet another trip to the NIT.

That said, Northwestern will get plenty more chances for quality wins in the Big Ten. They'll play Michigan State on Saturday, and then head to Wisconsin for a game next Wednesday. They are only 1-5 against the RPI Top 50 at the moment, but have ten more games in the regular season alone against teams currently in the RPI Top 50. Even a 5-5 split in those ten games would put Northwestern in a pretty good spot, particularly if they can get to 9-9 overall in Big Ten play.

Michigan isn't a team that the computers love. Their only decent wins out-of-conference came over Memphis and Iowa State, and they're rated 29th in the Pomeroy ratings and 36th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. But with this win coming on the heels of that huge victory over Wisconsin, they're now 4-1 in Big Ten play, only a half game behind Michigan State. I'm not sure they really have the offensive horses to hang near the top of the conference all season long, but they'll get their chance to prove me wrong. They will have to avoid a look-ahead game on Saturday at Iowa with a Tuesday home game against Michigan State looming. Iowa's been playing very well so far in Big Ten play, and if Michigan is looking past them to the Spartans at all, they will lose.

#21 Creighton 63, Northern Iowa 60
Doug McDermott didn't have a good game here at all. His 7-for-15 shooting from the floor was downright frigid by his standards (he has a 68.5 eFG% this season), and he even missed the front end of a one-and-one with a couple of seconds to go that gave Northern Iowa one final chance to tie up the game. But it shows that Creighton is about more than just Doug McDermott, pulling out a win against a very good Northern Iowa team without him playing well. Antoine Young led all players with 21 points on 9-for-15 shooting, including ten points in the final 8:40.

This win allows Creighton to keep pace with Wichita State and Missouri State at 4-1 atop the Missouri Valley. With wins over Northwestern, San Diego State, Wichita State and Northern Iowa, and zero bad losses, a 12-6 conference record along with a win or two in the Missouri Valley tournament should be sufficient for an at-large bid. A 13-5 record will really put them in a good position. That said, their upcoming schedule is pretty tough. They have to head to Illinois State for a game tomorrow, and are less than a week away from a road game at Missouri State.

That home loss to Evansville is really haunting Northern Iowa. This isn't a bad loss here by any means, but it drops them to 2-3 in Missouri Valley play. They have a win over Colorado State, but that's more than made up for by the loss to Evansville as well as losses to Illinois State and Ohio. It's hard to see them earning an at-large bid unless they can finish at least 12-6 in Missouri Valley play, which means they'll need to go at least 10-3 the rest of the way. They will play Missouri State at home on Friday, and then will head on the road to play Bradley on Sunday.

Baylor Survives Kansas State In Manhattan

2012-01-12T22:20:00.000-05:00

#4 Baylor 75, #18 Kansas State 73
Kansas State, coming off a big home victory over Missouri, looked to be in position to grab another big home win here. Baylor trailed for most of the game, and Kansas State was doing a good job of crashing the boards for second chance opportunities. But over the final ten minutes of the game, Baylor upped the pressure of their zone defense, and Kansas State looked very confused. The Wildcats have always been an undisciplined offensive team under Frank Martin, and they didn't have Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente to bail them out here. Rodney McGruder had a huge game (30 points on 10-for-14 shooting), but he only hit one shot in the final seven minutes.

Baylor had their own offensive troubles. They don't have a great playmaker, and often get too reliant on one-on-one basketball. They had four charges called on them in the second half alone, and the fouls started to add up. Five different Baylor players finished with four fouls, though not one player fouled out.

Baylor continues to pull out games like this. They are now 16-0, including 4-0 in games decided by three points or less. They'll end up losing some close games eventually, but they're looking like a team that will be in the Big 12 title hunt all season long. They'll play Oklahoma State, but the real game they're looking forward to will be on Monday night at Kansas. An upset there would put them in control of the Big 12, at least temporarily.

Kansas State falls to 1-2, but it's come against a brutal schedule (at Kansas, vs Missouri, vs Baylor). Their schedule eases up in a big way the next few weeks, and they'll improve on that conference record. They head to Oklahoma on Saturday and then get Texas on Tuesday, which isn't a huge improvement, but after that will play six consecutive games against teams outside the Pomeroy Top 50.

Providence 90, #15 Louisville 59
Louisville has been in a tailspin for more than three weeks now, but this was the worst game of them all. The pollsters should finally drop them from their lofty ranking in the polls, though at the same time it's possible that a game like this can bring catharsis and can help them mentally right the ship for their next game. Their effort level dropped late in this game, which is the first time I've seen that from them during this slump. What was the same in this game as all the others has been putrid offensive efficiency. Over the last seven games they have scored at a rate of 0.97 PPP, including only 0.94 PPP in Big East play.

Louisville's issue hasn't been turnovers, it's been shot selection and offensive flow. Peyton Siva has regressed horribly, and Russ Smith hasn't been able to replicate that performance he had against Kentucky a couple of weeks ago. You would think that at some point their outside shots will start to fall (they were 4-for-19 on threes here), but they don't really have any quality outside shooters. I'm not sure where those baskets are going to come from. Louisville has a great pressure defense, and excellent athletes. They need to get back to focusing on that and calming down on offense. Don't let rushed offense blow games that the defense has earned.

Louisville has lost four of five and is now 1-3 in Big East play. It's not inconceivable that they could fall into the bubble if they don't halt this slide soon. A 9-9 finish in the Big East will make them a bubble team for sure. They'll get DePaul at home on Saturday but then will head on the road to play Marquette and Pittsburgh next week.

Providence is a young team just hoping to make a little bit of noise while they wait for reinforcements coming in the form of their 2012 recruiting class. There's a good chance that this will end up being their best win of the season. They're now 1-4 heading into a road game at Syracuse on Saturday. After that they'll get a week off before a home game against Marquette.

Florida State 63, Virginia Tech 59
Florida State had been stumbling of late because of inefficient offense, and honestly their offense didn't improve much here. They only seemed to score off of Bernard James put-backs (he had nine offensive rebounds, and finished with 18 points scored). But the FSU defense got back to what they've been most of the past few years - just tremendous on the interior. They are so long and athletic that at times you wonder how anybody can score in the paint against them. Florida State actually blocked 15 of Virginia Tech's 47 two-point attempts.

Coming off three losses in their last four games, including bad losses to Princeton and Clemson, this was nearly a must-win game for Florida State. There isn't a huge margin of error in the ACC this season, and FSU didn't have any quality non-conference wins either. They'll have to go at least 9-7 in ACC play to have a good chance at an at-large bid, and a loss here would have dropped them to 0-2 with a game against North Carolina looming (on Saturday). Now they're 1-1 and will have a chance to get their first big scalp of the season against the Tar Heels. Their next game after that will be Tuesday against Maryland.

Virginia Tech has stumbled to an 0-2 start to ACC play, including a bad loss to Wake Forest. In non-conference play, the closest thing they had to a quality win was against Oklahoma State, so they're also going to need to finish at least 9-7 in ACC play to have a good shot at an at-large bid. They probably won't have too much trouble on Saturday at Boston College, and then come home for a huge game against North Carolina next Saturday.

Cincinnati Knocks Off Georgetown

2012-01-11T23:26:00.000-05:00

Cincinnati 68, #11 Georgetown 64
Georgetown led by a few points for almost the entire second half, but a 13-3 run late in the second half (during which Georgetown had five turnovers) stunned the Hoyas. One thing I noticed in this game is something that has plagued Georgetown for years now - that because they never show any flexibility in their system, opponents can force the ball out of the hands of certain players. I used to complain about this constantly when Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe were on the Hoyas and weren't getting nearly enough touches. Nobody on the current team has that level of dominance, but Hollis Thompson is getting there. Thompson was 5-for-5 from the field in the first half, including 4-for-4 behind the arc. In the second half? He took a single shot. Georgetown still finished with a 65.9 eFG% even without second half contributions from Hollis Thompson, but with the lead slipping away late they should have tried to get more offense through their star.

Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick were the stars for Cincinnati. They combined for 49 points, but their biggest contributions were defensively, where they had four steals apiece. Cincy finished as a team with almost as many steals (13) as Georgetown had assists (14). And this result is a good bounce-back win after that disappointing home loss to St. John's. It's also a very good sign that this improved play from Cincinnati since the Xavier brawl is here to stay. They had their "reality check" game, and immediately got back to beating quality teams. The Bearcats are now 3-1 in Big East play and have wins over Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, along with a bad loss to Presbyterian. A 9-9 Big East record will put them on the bubble and a 10-8 record probably gets them into the Tournament. They'll try to move to 4-1 on Saturday at home against Villanova before heading on the road to play UConn and West Virginia next week and then coming home for Syracuse.

Georgetown falls to 3-2 with this loss, and the fact that it's a home loss makes it particularly damaging for their Big East title chances. They do have a soft upcoming schedule (at St. John's, at DePaul, vs Rutgers), so they should move up in the standings. Their one game this season against Syracuse will be at the Carrier Dome, on February 8th. If they can somehow get that upset then they can get back into the Big East title race.

Purdue 79, Minnesota 66
This game wasn't really as close as the final score would suggest. Purdue led by 15 at the half and by 22 in the second half before cruising to the finish. Lewis Jackson led all players with 20 points, but this win was about DJ Byrd and Ryne Smith combining for 8-for-10 shooting behind the arc. Both of those two players have a nice shooting stroke, and it really opens up the offense when they can get hot. Minnesota had 11 different players that earned seven minutes or more in this game. Tubby Smith has often played a very large rotation at Minnesota, and I just don't get what he's doing. The best teams have 8/9 man rotations. 11 is just too many unless you're a mid-major team playing a full-game full court press (e.g. Belmont).

Purdue is now 3-1 and in a tie for third place in the Big Ten, but it's come against a soft schedule. That schedule strength will pick up in the next few weeks, beginning with a home game against a reeling Wisconsin team tomorrow. They'll come home to play Iowa on Tuesday before heading out on the road to play Michigan State. They also will have a home-and-home with Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan, and will get a return visit from Michigan State, so they'll have plenty of opportunities to get quality wins.

Minnesota is 12-5 overall, but they're 0-4 in the Big Ten with a win over Virginia Tech more than balanced out by a bad loss to Iowa. Their Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings have all slipped outside the Top 60. And unless they pull an upset at Indiana tomorrow they'll head into a must-win road game at Penn State on Sunday, trying to avoid an 0-6 start to the season. As good as the Big Ten is, Minnesota can put themselves in the NCAA Tournament with a 9-9 record, and even will put themselves on the bubble if they can get to 8-10, but an 0-6 start will make that extremely difficult. They have a brutal six game stretch in February (vs Wisconsin, vs Ohio St, at Northwestern, vs Michigan State, vs Indiana, at Wisconsin) and are going to rack up several losses in that month no matter how well they play.

#16 Connecticut 64, West Virginia 57
West Virginia actually controlled this game for the first 30 minutes or so. But UConn's defense started to take its toll in the second half. They were playing tight on the perimeter, and held WVU to 25% on threes. And then in the paint it was the Andre Drummond show. Drummond had only three of UConn's nine blocks, but re-directed close to a dozen others. UConn's defensive rebounding continues to be terrible (West Virginia had 16 offensive boards), but their ability to swat away everything near the paint kept the Mountaineers from profiting too much. Offensively, UConn got a strong performance from Jeremy Lamb (25 points on 9-for-17 shooting).

This was nearly a great win for West Virginia coming off a win over Georgetown. Instead they fall to 3-2 in Big East play with a home game against Rutgers coming up on Saturday. The Mountaineers have wins over Kansas State, Missouri State and Miami (Fl) in addition to the win over Georgetown and a weak loss to Kent State. A win over Marshall next week and a 9-9 Big East record more than likely will be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament.

UConn is 13-3 overall and 3-2 in Big East play, though they have a softer resume than most people realize. This is probably their best win of the season. Their other quality wins have come over Florida State and Harvard, and they've got bad losses to UCF and Rutgers. I don't think there's any risk of them being a bubble team, but I don't see why they should be considered a Big East contender. They play at Notre Dame on Saturday and then will come home to play Cincinnati next Wednesday.

W-9 BP68

2012-01-08T01:59:00.000-05:00

One of the rites of the tale end of winter is the media complaining that the bubble stinks. You'll see the articles all throughout February. I have a theory that the writers re-use the same articles every year and just change the proper nouns. The irony being that, of course, on Selection Sunday these same writers will whine that some very good team got left out of the NCAA Tournament.

I'll spare you that because it actually isn't true this year, in a sense. I actually think that the teams near the bottom of the Field of 68 are pretty strong this year. I feel good about putting every team I've given an 11 seed or better into the NCAA Tournament. The weakness isn't there, it's in the teams just narrowly out of the field. The reality is that right now there is just a huge gulf between the last few at-large teams and the best teams outside of the Tournament. Look at how small the "Teams Seriously Considered..." category is. And honestly, a few of those teams don't impress me at all and would be in a lower category in an ordinary year. A team like Iowa State jumped into that top category just because of one nice week.

I only made one change to the Field of 68. I finally dropped Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt auto bid and replaced them with Middle Tennessee State. Winning the Sun Belt East Division is important because it will most likely mean avoiding Denver in the Sun Belt tournament semifinals. FAU's loss today to UALR is a killer to their hopes of winning that Sun Belt East over MTSU. So I'm giving Middle Tennessee the edge.

Next week is the week I bring back the "full bubble". That means I'll include every team with a mathematical hope of an at-large bid. It means adding in dozens of teams I'm not including in this post because their odds are so long. The point is that no new teams will be added the rest of the season. Each week teams will be eliminated, and I'll narrow down the bubble until Selection Sunday itself. It's always a fun thing to do.

Now let's get to the bracket. Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)

2. Duke
2. Kansas
2. Florida
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)

3. Georgetown
3. Marquette
3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Indiana

4. Louisville
4. Wisconsin
4. Baylor
4. Alabama

5. UConn
5. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Michigan State
5. Missouri

6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Michigan
6. Vanderbilt
6. New Mexico

7. BYU
7. Saint Louis
7. West Virginia
7. Purdue

8. San Diego State
8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. Virginia
8. Pittsburgh

9. Kansas State
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. ARIZONA (PAC-12)
9. Xavier

10. Illinois
10. Saint Mary's
10. Florida State
10. Wichita State

11. Stanford
11. Seton Hall
11. Northwestern
11. Southern Miss

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. California
12. Virginia Tech
12. Northern Iowa
12. Dayton
12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)

14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)

15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. LAMAR (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Marshall, Mississippi State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Miami (Fl), Notre Dame, Villanova, Oklahoma State, VCU, Central Florida, Cleveland State, Illinois State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duquesne, La Salle, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Providence, Rutgers, South Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, Drexel, Georgia State, Tulane, UW-Milwaukee, Kent State, Indiana State, Boise State, Wyoming, UCLA, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, Charleston, Denver, Nevada, New Mexico State

Now Rutgers Takes Down UConn

2012-01-08T01:09:00.000-05:00

Rutgers 67, #8 Connecticut 60
After a horrid start to the season, Rutgers is starting to get a reputation as a giant-killer. Just nine days after Florida fell to the Scarlet Knights, it was Connecticut falling victim here. The biggest problem UConn had was that they took the ball out of the hands of Jeremy Lamb, their best player. He fouled out after playing only 24 minutes, but even when he was on the floor the offense was being run through Shabazz Napier instead of him. Lamb finished with only 9 shot attempts and a single assist. Napier just isn't as efficient of a player, and UConn really struggled to play efficient offense. Both their turnovers (20) and their turnover rate (28.8%) were season highs. Rutgers took advantage of those turnovers (they had 9 steals) to get a bunch of easy baskets. They needed those baskets because they struggled to score in the half court against the long, active UConn defense. Even with all those steals, Rutgers only scored 1.00 PPP.

Rutgers isn't a threat for an at-large bid, of course. They are still only 9-7 overall with a bunch of bad losses (Princeton, Richmond, USF, LSU and Illinois State) to offset those two big wins. But they are improving and will almost surely pull another upset or two the rest of the way. They'll play at Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and then at West Virginia next Saturday.

UConn is now only 2-2 in the Big East, with a surprisingly soft resume. They have wins over Florida State, Harvard and Arkansas, along with bad losses to UCF and Rutgers. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will slip close to 40th after this loss. They'll try to bounce back on Monday against West Virginia. Next Saturday they'll play at Notre Dame. Both of those teams have been playing well the past couple of weeks, and neither will be an easy beat.

Arkansas 98, #16 Mississippi State 88
I've had some Mississippi State fans really angry at me for not putting the Bulldogs into my bracket, but the reality is that they only got this #16 ranking through inertia. They are 4-1 in games decided by seven points or less, and even with that they don't exactly have an impressive set of wins. They beat West Virginia and Arizona, and have a bad loss to Akron. They might end up making the NCAA Tournament, but they're a bubble team at best. In no way will they earn a 4 or 5 or 6 seed, which is what most other people making brackets currently have them as.

Mississippi State will have a decent shot at an at-large bid if they can reach 9-7 in conference play. If they finish 8-8 and win a game or two in the SEC tournament then they'll have a shot as well. At 0-1 they'll play Tennessee on Wednesday, and then will get Alabama next Saturday.

Arkansas had a tough loss to Houston to start the season but has been playing a lot better the past few weeks. I think this team is finally starting to understand the Mike Anderson system. They've turned up the pace and are putting pressure on teams, even though they lack the talent that Anderson's teams had at Missouri. Even without any quality non-conference wins, it's not inconceivable that they could get onto the bubble if they can go 9-7 against an imbalanced SEC schedule (even though the SEC got rid of the basketball division officially, Arkansas is still playing the same schedule they'd have had in the old SEC West). They'll play on the road at Ole Miss next, on Wednesday.

#23 Virginia 52, Miami (Fl) 51
This was an ugly, ugly game. Virginia ground this game into a 57 possession battle. Both teams shot under 40% from the field and there were a combined 15 assists. Miami had multiple chances on the final possession of the game to get the win, but Virginia played sound defense and didn't foul, hanging on to an important win. Honestly, this is Tony Bennett basketball. He doesn't have the talent to score a lot of points but his teams will slow things down and just make it very difficult for opponents to score. They're 330th in the nation with 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes played, and are 12th in the nation in Pomeroy defensive efficiency. They're second in the nation to only Wisconsin in points allowed per game. The concern with that type of play without any real explosive scorers is consistency (Mike Scott is an excellent player, but he's not an explosive scorer who can take the team on his back). The ACC has a bunch of bad teams this season, and Virginia can't afford bad losses.

The Cavaliers are 14-1 in this game, though they've played a soft schedule. A win over Michigan is their only against the Pomeroy Top 80, and they've got a bad loss to TCU. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up at a very nice 20th or so (we'll see what the exact number is in the morning), but it's precarious. They're only a bad loss or two from the bubble. They have a huge game coming up on Thursday at Duke. They won't get a return visit from Duke, so a loss there will mean that their only chance for a real big win this season will be during their home-and-home with North Carolina, or else in the ACC tournament.

Miami is not a bad team. They were rated 68th in the Pomeroy ratings before this game, and won't drop after a one-point loss at Virginia. But they haven't been able to close the deal against quality opponents. They are 0-5 against the RPI Top 75, with a bad loss to Ole Miss. They'll have to get to at least 9-7 in ACC play to have a shot at an at-large bid, and they're now 0-1 heading into a road game at North Carolina on Tuesday night. Their next game after that will be at home against Clemson.

Notre Dame Upsets Louisville

2012-01-07T23:19:00.000-05:00

Notre Dame 67, #10 Louisville 65, OT
This was a heck of a game, and won because of a break-out performance by Eric Atkins. Atkins played well in flashes as a freshman, though he never got to see too much of the ball. That's changed this season. His raw stats don't look too impressive in this game (15 points on 4-for-18 from the field), but in the key moments of this game he was the player with the ball in his hands making every play. His three-pointer late in regulation sent this game into overtime. In overtime he got to the basket with three seconds to go, drew the foul, and hit one of two at the line to send this game into a second overtime. And in the second overtime he scored the final five Notre Dame points. Defensively, the Irish did a good job of getting the ball out of the hands of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith (a combined 5-for-16 shooting, 5 assists and 7 turnovers) and forcing the Louisville front line to try to win the game.

Louisville got off to a strong start to this season, winning their first 12 games including victories over Vanderbilt, Memphis and Long Beach State. They got up as high as 4th in the human polls. But things have turned wrong the past few weeks. After very narrow victories over Charleston and Western Kentucky they have lost three of their last four games. This is by far the worst of those three losses (the other two were to Kentucky and Georgetown), but it's a startling run for a team that looked for a while to be Syracuse's top rival. They'll play at Providence on Tuesday and then at home against DePaul before their next real tough game, on the road at Marquette on January 16th.

Notre Dame has gone on the opposite path from Louisville. Their season looked to be almost over in November after they lost star Tim Abromaitis for the season and lost games to Georgia and Maryland. But now they're off to a 2-1 start in the Big East with wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh, and only a road loss at Cincinnati. They're a long way off from getting back to the Tournament (they'll have to win at least 10 Big East games to have a real shot at an at-large bid) but they're trending in the right direction. They'll play USF on Tuesday and then get UConn next Saturday.

Clemson 79, Florida State 59
Honestly, it's not that surprising that Florida State only scored 59 points in this game. They shot poorly, but they tend to struggle to score against quality defenses, which is what Clemson has. They've scored less than 1 PPP in three of their last four games. What was surprising was that a Clemson team with a bad offense (less than 1 PPP for the season as a whole) torched Florida State for 1.15 PPP. In fact, that was the greatest offensive efficiency that Clemson has had all season against any opponent, and they did it against a Florida State team that has probably been the best defensive team in the nation the past three or four seasons. And on top of that, it wasn't like Clemson got hot on threes - in fact, they hit only 3-for-14. No, they took the ball right at the gigantic Florida State front line and hit 60% of their two-point attempts and got to the line for 33 free throw attempts (they hit 28 of them). I don't see how anybody could have seen a performance like this coming.

Not only is Florida State now looking like a bubble team, the reality is that they'd probably be left out of the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. They're 9-6 with no big wins and a bad loss to Princeton. They're also now 0-1 in ACC play heading into a big game on the road at Virginia Tech to play a Hokies team coming off a bad loss of their own. And after that they play North Carolina. They'll have to get to at least 9-7 in ACC play to earn an at-large bid, so they would do well to avoid an 0-3 start.

This is Clemson's best win of the season and they have bad losses to Hawaii, Coastal Carolina, UTEP, Charleston and South Carolina. Even after this win, their RPI is 169th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be close to 150th. They're better than that, and it's not inconceivable that they could get hot in ACC play, but one win over Florida State isn't nearly enough to make up for those bad losses. They have to avoid a letdown on Thursday at Boston College and then come home for a huge game against Duke a week from tomorrow.

Dayton 87, Temple 77
I warned multiple times about this game. Just a classic letdown game for Temple, sandwiched between that huge win over Duke and a looming road game at Saint Louis. Dayton has been playing a lot better the past few weeks, and they knew that a win here would catapult them into the Atlantic Ten title discussion. They scored a remarkable 56 points in the second half, running a decent Temple defense right off the floor. Khalif Wyatt had another big game for Temple (28 points, including 5-for-10 on threes), but Dayton had a balanced attack with six different players scoring 9 or more points.

Temple is now 0-1 in Atlantic Ten play, but I wouldn't worry too much about a loss in a game like this. They're still my pick to win the conference, and they have a solid resume with wins over Duke, Wichita State and Villanova, and only one bad loss (Bowling Green). That game Wednesday on the road at Saint Louis will give them a great opportunity to grab back control of the A-10 title race. After that their schedule will be fairly easy for the rest of the month. Due to a scheduling quirk, Temple only gets one regular season game against their three chief rivals: Xavier, Saint Louis and Dayton. They need to make those games count.

Dayton had bad early season losses to Miami (OH) and Buffalo, but they've now got back-to-back wins over Saint Louis and Temple (in addition to non-conference wins over Alabama and Minnesota) and are suddenly a real contender to win the Atlantic Ten. They have to beware their own letdown game Wednesday on the road at a decent St. Bonaventure team. But they also didn't get the same scheduling breaks that Temple did. They still have to play a home-and-home with Xavier, and also have to head to Saint Louis.

Marquette Plays Well But Can't Knock Off Syracuse

2012-01-07T22:03:00.000-05:00

#1 Syracuse 73, #20 Marquette 66
Marquette has really struggled against zone defenses the past few seasons, and nobody plays zone defense better than Syracuse. I thought this game would be a blowout, and that's what it looked like early. Syracuse actually led by 23 points in the first half. But in the second half Marquette really impressed. They stepped up their defensive pressure. Not only were they able to shut down the Syracuse offense, but they were able to get out in transition to get some easy baskets. The Golden Eagles actually pulled within two points at one point, but couldn't quite get over the hump.

With this win Syracuse moves to 17-0 and 4-0 in the Big East, and they've firmed up their hold on the #1 spot in the rankings. That said, I think this success has more to do with the weakness of the top and middle of the Big East than anything else. They just don't have a real rival this year. Syracuse is slightly more talented offensively this year than they've been in recent years, but they're the same team they always are - they still struggle to score if their defense isn't creating easy baskets in transition.. Certainly they're the favorite to win the Big East and to earn a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm just saying that I wouldn't pencil them into the Final Four just yet. Keep this in mind when you consider that they have a soft upcoming schedule, and have a pretty good chance of staying undefeated through the month of January.

Marquette is a very good team, and by Selection Sunday I expect their resume to be very strong, but at the moment it's a lot weaker than most people think it is. They've lost four of their last six games, and that upset of Wisconsin remains their only win against the Pomeroy Top 60. Their schedule does ease up a bit with a home game Wednesday against St. John's, and then a home game against Pittsburgh next Saturday. An interesting game will be on January 16th against Louisville. That game could end up being one gigantic 40 minute fast break, from one end of the floor to the other.

Iowa State 74, Texas A&M 50
This was the game where Texas A&M had to hold the line. They got off to a slow start to the season and had an iffy non-conference performance (no big wins, and a bad loss to Rice). Then they lost to Baylor and came in here with a possible 0-2 start looming, and a tough upcoming schedule. This wasn't a "must win", since obviously Texas A&M can go on a five-game winning streak in February and make up for all of this, but it was a mental must-win. There was a real risk that if they couldn't take care of business here that they'd plummet to the bottom of the Big 12, never to be seen from again. And remember, this Texas A&M team was talked about preseason as a contender to win the Big 12.

Not only did Texas A&M lose this game - they were annihilated. Their offensive efficiency just continues to be brutal. They finished with a 34.3 eFG% and 0.77 PPP. They've faced 13 Division I opponents this season, and scored greater than 1 PPP in just four of them - and all four of those teams are rated worse than 280th in Pomeroy. Overall they're scoring 0.95 PPP this season, which is the worst in the Big 12. In two Big 12 conference games so far they're averaging 0.75 PPP, which is almost unbelievable. Their offense can't possibly continue to be this bad all season long, but they're running out of time to turn their season around. They'll play at Texas on Wednesday, and then will come home to play Texas Tech next Saturday.

I'm somewhat rationalizing here, but a plausible argument can be made that it would take a team chock full of transfers to begin to jell. Certainly it would explain why Iowa State has shown a dramatic improvement since the early parts of this season. In November they lost to Drake and Northern Iowa, and nearly lost games to Northern Colorado, Lehigh and Providence. But they have been on a 7-0 run since December, beating Iowa and then Texas and now thrashing Texas A&M. At this point, they're looking like a plausible bubble team. As strong as the Big 12 is, Iowa State will at least be a contender on Selection Sunday if they can get to 9-9 in conference play. They are now 2-0 heading into Wednesday home game against Missouri and then a Saturday road game at Kansas. An upset in either game would really start earning Iowa State some national media attention.

St. John's 57, Cincinnati 55
This was an exciting win for St. John's, coming on a Moe Harkless tip-in at the buzzer, but the reality is that they were badly outplayed. Cincinnati committed 14 fewer turnovers (and had 7 more steals) and had 13 more offensive rebounds. The problem was that despite taking 27 more shots from the field, they had a putrid 30.9 eFG%, the worst they've shot since the brawl game against Xavier. It takes an extraordinarily bad shooting performance to lose a game when you take 27 more shots than your opponent, and that's what Cincinnati did here.

At some point Cincinnati was due for a reality check, having won seven straight games since the brawl. But even with this loss they have still nosed their way back into the at-large discussion. They have wins over Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, along with a bad loss to Presbyterian. A 9-9 Big East record and a win in the Big East tournament will give them a good chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They are now 2-1 heading into a road game at Georgetown on Monday. Should they fall there they'll have a big home game next Saturday against Villanova. After that they head on the road to put UConn and West Virginia and then will play Syracuse, so that Villanova game looms as an important match-up. A loss there and Cincinnati could find themselves staring at a six game losing streak.

St. John's has been playing better the past few weeks. The addition of Amir Garrett has helped, and the loss of Nurideen Lindsey hasn't really mattered too much (Lindsey shot 46.2% on twos and committed 4.1 turnovers per game before transferring out). This is their best win of the season, and they're now 2-2 in the Big East heading into a tough road game at Marquette on Wednesday.

Georgetown And Missouri Go Down: Neither Is An Upset

2012-01-07T20:15:00.000-05:00

West Virginia 74, #9 Georgetown 62
One of my pet peeves is mainstream media types not understanding the fact that a team beating an opponent rated higher in the human polls is not always an upset. There are two reasons for this. First of all, the human polls are terrible. Second, home teams get four points on point spreads (football teams get three points), so a team that is slightly better than an opponent will still often be an underdog on the road. This often manifests itself with sports analysts thumping their chests because they picked an "upset special" correctly, even though the team they picked was favored in Vegas. It can also drive a narrative. And the narrative this afternoon was "What a wild a crazy Saturday in conference play!" The two most cited "upsets": West Virginia over Georgetown and Kansas State over Missouri. The only problem is, neither was an upset. West Virginia was actually favored by three in Vegas. Missouri was a one-point underdog (more on that game in a few paragraphs). Why was West Virginia the favorite? First of all, Georgetown is slightly overrated - they're 4-1 in games decided by three points or less, so they've been a little lucky. Second, West Virginia is a good team that's played very well the past couple of weeks other than that one clunker at Seton Hall. And third, even though Georgetown was still seen as ever so slightly better, the four points for homecourt advantage swung the point spread in West Virginia's favor.

Honestly, homecourt advantage was probably worth more than four points here. Georgetown had team managers that were in foul trouble by the end of this game. Nate Lubick and Henry Sims both fouled out (Lubick only played 15 minutes, in fact), and Jason Clark was hobbled with four fouls. They couldn't get in front of Kevin Jones or Truck Bryant without fouling, and those two West Virginia stars took advantage by driving at the hoop whenever they got the ball. Truck Bryant earned 11 free throw attempts and finished with 25 points to lead all players. Hollis Thompson had another big game for Georgetown (20 points on 7-for-13 shooting), but it wasn't enough.

Georgetown falls to 3-1 with this loss, but they should be able to improve on that the next couple of weeks. Their upcoming schedule is remarkably soft (vs Cincinnati, at St. John's, at DePaul, vs Rutgers). Their next tough game might not be until they play at Pittsburgh on January 28th, and even that won't be that hard unless Pitt figures out what's been troubling them during this current four game losing streak. Of course, Georgetown's schedule will get a lot tougher in February, and their lone game against Syracuse this season will be at the Carrier Dome. But Georgetown is in a position, if they can pull an upset there, to make a run at the Big East title, even after this loss.

West Virginia moves to 3-1 with this win, heading into a road game at UConn on Monday. This is their best win of the season, though they also have wins over Kansas State, Villanova, Missouri State and Miami (Fl). They only have one bad loss (Kent State), and that could potentially end up an RPI Top 100 loss anyway. If they can win that rivalry game over Marshall in a couple of weeks and then go 9-9 in Big East play with another big scalp then they should be in good shape for an at-large bid. A 10-8 Big East record would almost lock them into the field.

#22 Kansas State 75, #6 Missouri 59
I talked in the Georgetown/West Virginia recap about over-hyped "upsets". Missouri was actually a one point favorite in Vegas, but this morning I said on twitter that I felt very confident Kansas State would come through, for a few reasons. First, Missouri was overdue for a loss. They were 14-0, but opponents have been gradually catching up to them. Two of their last three wins came down to the final minute. Missouri had only played one true road game heading into this game, and it was on the road at a mediocre Old Dominion team that took them down to the wire. Kansas State has a tremendous homecourt advantage, and was going to be fired up after that hideous loss to Kansas where the players basically gave up and gave a half-effort throughout the second half. I would have been very surprised if Missouri had won this game.

That said, the fact that Kansas State won this game in a romp was something of a surprise. The Wildcats led by 21 points in the first half, and got the lead up as high as 23 in the second half. This game was never competitive. Missouri was just really bothered by the pressure defense from Kansas State. They couldn't get an open shot, and they finished with only a 39.8 eFG%. To put that in perspective, Missouri hadn't had an eFG% below 50% in any other game this season. Obviously there's no reason to panic because of one game, but it shines a spotlight on Missouri's next road game, on Wednesday at Iowa State. The Tigers have yet to play well on a road game. Will they start on Wednesday?

Kansas State will have to keep this level of play up because Baylor comes to town next, on Tuesday. They're 1-1 in Big 12 play, and a 9-9 record should be sufficient for an at-large bid. The Baylor game should be fun since both teams are tremendous offensive rebounding teams, and horrid defensive rebounding teams. We might have more offensive rebounds than defensive rebounds in that game. Meanwhile, any coaches who like to focus on boxing out will spend the night cringing.

Wake Forest 58, Virginia Tech 55
The media wants to talk upsets? This game was an upset. Virginia Tech was favored by 6.5 points. But their small front line got exposed here. They were beaten on the boards (a 33.3 OR% for Wake, compared to a 23.5 OR% for Va Tech), and allowed Travis McKie to dominate (12 points on 6-for-14 shooting, along with 15 rebounds). For the Hokies, Dorian Finney-Smith somehow played 33 minutes and scored zero points with one rebound - I don't think I've ever seen such a physically talented player be so invisible on both sides of the court.

Virginia Tech came into this game having won six straight, but they now start ACC play with a horrible thud. Their non-conference resume is soft, despite the strong won-loss record (a win over Oklahoma State being the only real result of note). As weak as the ACC is, Virginia Tech will probably need to get to 9-7 in conference play to earn an at-large bid. They'll try to bounce back on Tuesday at home against Florida State.

This could end up being the best win Wake Forest has this season. They're a slowly improving program, but they don't have enough talent right now to be competitive on a daily basis in the ACC. That said, they have a winnable game on Wednesday at Maryland, so a 2-0 start isn't out of the question. Of course, a road game at Duke is looming on January 19th, and they'll probably be a 20-25 point underdog for that one, so their winning streak won't go on for too long.

Tennessee Knocks Off Florida

2012-01-07T14:07:00.000-05:00

Tennessee 67, #14 Florida 56
This game was tight in the first half, but Tennessee just gradually pulled away in the second half. Tennessee came into this game well outside the Top 100 in every computer rating, but this win wasn't about them. They played well, certainly, and shot even better (a 56.1 eFG%), but this game was all about Florida's inconsistency. The Gators love to stand around the perimeter and launch three after three. They take their cues from Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who have been doing this for a few years now.

For the season, 44% of the shots Florida has taken from the field have been threes. Six times in 16 games games they've hit 44% or more of those threes, and the only loss amongst those games was a respectable seven-point loss at Ohio State. But they hit only 31.8% of their threes here, their second worst percentage of the season. Their overall eFG% (42.0) was by far their worst of the season (only the second time all season they've been below 50%).

This is now the second inexplicable loss of the season. Their loss to Rutgers also involved bad three-point shooting (33% in that game). They have wins over Florida State and Arizona, but their narrow losses to Syracuse (by 4 points) and Ohio State (by 7) are holding them back from having a really nice resume. In fact, as good as they are, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is outside the Top 50. I don't think there's any risk that they'll be a bubble team. They'll eventually win some close games. But it's just worth noting that their resume is soft enough that they could become a bubble team if they suffer a couple more upsets.

Tennessee entered this game 0-6 against teams with an RPI of 145th or higher. Yuck. Their RPI of 277th will improve quite a bit after this win, and they'll actually move up close to the Top 100 in the Pomeroy ratings, but they're still a long, long way from the Tournament bubble. They have bad losses to Austin Peay, Charleston and Oakland. Even if they somehow get to 10-6 in SEC play they'll still head into the SEC tournament on the outside of the bubble looking in. They'll try to move to 2-0 on Thursday at Mississippi State. Next Saturday they get another chance for a big win when Kentucky comes to Knoxville.

#12 Indiana 73, #13 Michigan 71
This is the second time that Indiana has had a classic letdown game opportunity, off the wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, but both times they've managed to come through and win the game. It's been very impressive. And for all the attention that Cody Zeller has gotten from the media, they're winning these games because his teammates have all improved since last season. Zeller, despite 18 points on 8-for-10 shooting, actually was fairly invisible in the key moments of this game. He didn't score in the final 11 minutes. The key player for Indiana in the second half was Christian Watford, who torched Michigan's defense inside and out for 25 points on 8-for-11 shooting.

Indiana has, of course, been a bit lucky this season. They're 3-0 in games decided by four points or less. But their resume is terrific, and at 2-1 with a very winnable upcoming schedule they're a dark horse contender to win the whole Big Ten. They'll play at Penn State tomorrow, and then come home to play Minnesota. In fact, they should be big favorites in four of their next five games (the one they won't be favored in will be the road game at Ohio State), so they have a good chance of getting off to a 6-2 start.

This is a tough missed opportunity for a Michigan team that, despite the lofty ranking in the human polls, has really only gotten that ranking through inertia. They have a few decent wins (Memphis, Iowa State, Minnesota and UCLA), but no really "big" wins, as a win over Indiana would have been. And that means that they now have a huge home game on Sunday against a reeling Wisconsin team - a chance to collect a big win and to firm up their spot in the top half of the Big Ten. And by the way, despite Michigan's lofty ranking and the fact that Wisconsin is on their way out of the Top 25, and the fact that the game will be played in Ann Arbor, don't be shocked if you wake up tomorrow morning and Wisconsin is favored. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy project a seven point win for Wisconsin, and I can't recall the last time that the Vegas line for a game was seven points off from either of those rating systems. Of course, if Wisconsin hits less than 25% of their threes again, Michigan will win.

Penn State 65, Purdue 45
We knew that Penn State would be a feisty team at home this season. New head coach Patrick Chambers has them playing hard, and even though they typically have small crowds at home, the fans that do show up tend to be rowdy. It's still a fairly strong homecourt advantage. But that said, Purdue got destroyed in this game. Purdue had a 38.2 eFG%, and even if they'd shot closer to their season average they still would have lost. Penn State owned the boards (a 34.5 OR%, compared to a 19.4% rate for Purdue), and committed two fewer turnovers.

Purdue getting out-rebounded is nothing new. They are a very small team. But what was shocking in this game was how poorly their backcourt, which is one of the best in the Big Ten, played. They couldn't get out in transition, and they were sloppy with the ball themselves (their 20.6% turnover rate was their second highest of the season). And with his teammates struggling, Robbie Hummel was just too quiet (5-for-11 from the field with 1 assist). It's a sign that Hummel is not the same player that he was before those injuries. Two years ago he'd have been able to take his team on his back against a team like Penn State without any real front court defenders of note. Purdue is now 2-1 in Big Ten play - a 9-9 record will probably be sufficient to get them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll play on the road at Minnesota tomorrow, and then come home to play Wisconsin on Thursday.

Penn State moves to 1-2 in Big Ten play with this win. They won't win too many more this season, but I'd expect them to collect at least two or three more upsets in Big Ten play. They're not going to lay down or give up. Their next game will be tomorrow at home against Indiana.

Can The Pac-12 Be A One-Big League?

2012-01-07T12:46:00.000-05:00

Oregon 78, Stanford 67
Oregon St 92, California 85
Utah 62, Washington State 60
Arizona State 62, USC 53
Colorado 87, Washington 69
UCLA 65, Arizona 58

I'm going to break my usual format to talk about a truly horrid night that the Pac-12 had on Thursday. All 12 teams were in action, and the inferior team won all six games. If you wanted to draw up a path to a one-bid BCS league, this would be the night you'd come up with. So it made me talk on twitter a bit, and wonder offline, is it really possible that the Pac-12 could be a one-bid league?

First of all, there has never been a one-bid BCS league in the 64/65/68 team NCAA Tournament era. The worst seeds that any conference has received belong to the 1985/86 Pac-10 conference, which earned a 9 seed and a 12 seed. The only other BCS league to only receive two bids was the 2009-10 Pac-10 team, which earned an 8 and 11 seed.

Sadly, the advanced computer ratings only go back about a decade, so we can't look back at that 1985-86 Pac-10 league. But we can look at the Pac-10 team from two years ago. One thing that stands out to me immediately is that as bad as the conference was, it was still the sixth rated conference in both Sagarin and Pomeroy. In fact, the only time in the past decade that the six BCS conference weren't the six highest rated conferences was the 2003-04 season, when the Pac-10 finished 9th in both the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings. This season, so far, the Pac-12 is rated 7th by Pomeroy and 8th by Sagarin.

But the reality is that, despite what many people think, NCAA Tournament bids aren't doled out to conferences, but to teams. Two years ago when the Pac-12 got two Tournament teams, the lower rated Atlantic Ten earned three and the even-lower rated Mountain West earned four. Why? Because those conferences had several teams that did damage out-of-conference and had nice conference records, and that was enough to earn a bid despite the weakness of some of their conference foes. The same was true with the 2003-04 Pac-10, which earned three bids because Arizona won a couple of nice games in their non-conference slate and then held on with an 11-7 conference record. Stanford, at 17-1, couldn't get left out. Washington was the dicey team, at 12-6 and without any big non-conference wins. They did get a quality win over Stanford, though, and swept Arizona, and then ran all the way to the Pac-10 title game where they played a competitive game again versus Stanford. Those sorts of quality wins won't be available in this year's Pac-12.

Very good conference records will still put these Pac-12 teams in the Tournament. Stanford, California, Arizona and possibly others will likely be NCAA Tournament teams if they can get to 12-6 or better. But that's why Thursday night was such a disaster: All the wrong teams won. A team like Utah isn't going to the NCAA Tournament no matter what. Any game Utah wins in conference play is bad for the conference's Tournament hopes.

So obviously we've got a long way to go. Stanford and Cal could each still go 13-5 and be Tournament locks on Selection Sunday. But they might not. Let's do a quick breakdown:

Stanford and Cal have the two strongest non-conference resumes. Stanford beat NC State and Oklahoma State, and had just one iffy loss (Butler). Assuming they avoid any losses to the real bottom-feeders (Utah, Arizona State and maybe USC), they should make the NCAA Tournament if they can get to 12-6. California had no big wins (their best win was either the one over Georgia, Denver or UCSB) but they had no bad losses either. Assuming they can avoid any really bad losses, they also should be in good shape if they can get to 12-6 in conference play.

Arizona was the team I picked preseason to win the Pac-12, and they're still the team I think is most talented. But they've had bad luck in close games (they took Florida to overtime and took San Diego State down to the final seconds, but lost both), and so they're going to end up without any big wins on Selection Sunday. They entered Pac-12 play with only a 9-4 record, which means that even a 12-6 finish would make them 21-10 and would put them on the Tournament bubble. They'd probably have to win at least one game in the Pac-12 tournament.

The other teams that could realistically make a run at an at-large bid? I'd include both Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA, in no particular order. Though in all cases I think a 12-6 record is the bare minimum to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.

And since I've said all that, I'll point out that (naturally) the team winning the conference, and the only team still undefeated in Pac-12 play, is a Colorado team that went 7-4 against Division I teams out-of-conference, with zero quality wins and bad losses to Maryland, Wyoming and Colorado State. Even if they get to 12-6, Colorado would still need a win or two in the Pac-12 tournament to have a chance at a bid.

So if California and Stanford somehow only finish 11-7, and if no more than one team finishes better than 12-6? Yes, a single NCAA Tournament bid would absolutely be very realistic. And if the conference wants to point to a single dreadful night that created that embarrassment? Thursday, January 5th would have to be near the top of the list.

Iowa State Upsets Texas

2012-01-07T12:09:00.000-05:00

Iowa State 77, Texas 71
If there's one thing we've learned about Texas this season it's how incredibly important J'Covan Brown is. Back in November the Longhorns led NC State by 13 points with 8:25 left in the game when Brown was called for his fourth foul. He explained his displeasure to the refs, who called a technical foul and tossed him. Texas blew the game. Here against Iowa State? After the Cyclones shot the lights out early, J'Covan Brown led the Longhorns back to a tie game early in the second half. But that's when he injured his right ankle and missed the rest of the game, and Texas just couldn't find enough offense down the stretch without him.

Iowa State got huge performances from their transfers, who make up most of the top talent that Fred Hoiberg has on his team. They got 14 points and 6 rebounds from Royce White (Minnesota). Chris Babb (Penn State) scored 17 and Chris Allen (Michigan State) had 13, while Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois) had 11 off the bench.

Shooting has been a key for the Cyclones all season long. They hit 47.6% of their threes here, as well as 42.1% of their threes in their second biggest win of the season, over Iowa. Their three losses this season happened to come in three of the four games in which they hit under 32% of their threes. That's a worrying sign for their next game, at Texas A&M. The Aggies have been playing poorly, but they're 4th in the nation with a 25.6 3P% against for the season. If Iowa State can pull the upset there, their next two games will be against Missouri and at Kansas.

Texas is a team that has been improving throughout the season, and they're definitely better than their resume. They are 0-3 in games decided by six points or less, and their one loss that wasn't close came on the road at North Carolina. Getting J'Covan Brown back will be crucial, of course. He's currently considered "questionable" for their next game, against Oklahoma State. After that game they'll play next on Wednesday against Texas A&M. After that they'll head on the road to play Missouri and Kansas State.

#15 Kansas 67, #22 Kansas State 49
This is usually a fun rivalry game, but Kansas State couldn't hit a shot early and this game was really just before it got started. The Jayhawks led by 23-5 at one point. And after they fell that far behind, the Kansas State players just seemed to lose their edge. They were losing every 50-50 fall, and were destroyed on the boards (a 56.7 OR% for Kansas). The leading offensive rebounder in the game was actually the Jayhawks' Travis Releford, which tells you how many of these offensive boards were taken below the rim. One other stat that stood out to me is that other the Will Spradling the rest of the Kansas State team combined for one assist. They've never been a good passing team under Frank Martin, but that's embarrassing.

Kansas has dominated the Big 12 standings for the past decade, and they know that taking care of business at home is a key to winning that regular season title. They're off to a good start. They head on the road next, to play at Oklahoma later today. They'll be looking forward to a home game against Baylor in a little more than a week, followed by a road game at Texas. Sweep those two games and they can take an iron grip on the Big 12 standings.

This was a bad performance for Kansas State, but it's not a "bad loss", and it doesn't take away from their surprisingly strong start to the season. They are 11-2 with wins over Alabama, Virginia Tech and Long Beach State, and zero bad losses. There's no question that they'd be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, and they'll stay in if they can go 9-9 in Big 12 play. Even an 8-10 finish, considering the strength of the Big 12 relative to the ACC, SEC and Pac-12, would have them an at-large contender if they could win a couple of games in the Big 12 tournament. They'll be back in action later today for a huge game against Missouri.

DePaul 84, Pittsburgh 81
It's incredible how badly Pittsburgh has fallen apart these past few games. It would be one thing if this was a poorly coached team, but Jamie Dixon is one of the best. And it's not like we can chalk these four straight losses up to one thing going wrong, or to horrid Pitt shooting or some white hot shooting by opponents. They're allowing 1.10 PPP over these four games, but only a 52.6 eFG% over that stretch. They're just not turning teams over, they're not getting enough rebounds, and they're not locking opponents down defensively like they usually do. And, of course, they're playing sloppy on offense. Far too many guys taking their man one-on-one.

Pitt doesn't have a great collection of wins: La Salle, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Robert Morris. Not one of those is a real "quality" win. And now they have losses to DePaul and Wagner, and are 0-3 in Big East play and 11-5 overall. If the season ended now, not only would they not be in the NCAA Tournament, they wouldn't even seriously be on the bubble. They're probably going to need to get to 9-9 to make the NCAA Tournament, so they're going to have to turn things around quickly. They will play Rutgers on Wednesday, but then head on the road to play Marquette and Syracuse. So even if they do break this losing streak against Rutgers, they're still staring at a potential 1-5 start to the season.

DePaul is definitely playing better these past few weeks. It says something about how awful they've been in Big East play that fans stormed the court for beating an unranked team that would be heading to the NIT or CBI if the season ended now. They had been 2-54 in their last 56 regular season Big East games, which should tell you the level of their futility. And it tells you that as improved as they are this season, anything more than four or five wins is unrealistic. At 1-1 they'll head on the road to play Villanova tomorrow.

Georgetown Has A Huge Comeback Win Over Marquette

2012-01-06T21:18:00.000-05:00

#9 Georgetown 73, #20 Marquette 70
This game looked to be as good as over. Marquette led by 17 points with 13 minutes to go. But while Jason Clark led all players with 26 points for the game, it was Hollis Thompson and Henry Sims that dominated as Georgetown made a huge comeback. They finally took the lead after a 9-0 run where Sims or Thompson scored every single point. Sims was unstoppable in the paint, finishing 5-for-6 from the field. Hollis Thompson finished 6-for-7, including a pair of big threes in the final 3:30. Shooting defense has been a key all season for Marquette. They are 0-3 when allowing an eFG% greater than 55%. They're 12-0 when holding opponents to an eFG% under 55%.

This was a game that meant a lot for the Big East standings. Syracuse has been the favorite all season long, and they remain the favorite, but both of these teams came into this game hoping to put pressure on the Orange. Georgetown is now off to a quick 3-0 conference record, including this win and a road victory over Louisville. Throw in a pair of wins over Memphis and a victory against Alabama and Georgetown is making a case for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, even if they should fall short against Syracuse. They'll play at a reeling West Virginia team tomorrow, and then come home to play a surging Cincinnati team on Monday night.

Marquette has quietly lost three of their last five games. This isn't a bad loss by any means, though the way they lost it wasn't good. But the reality is that their resume is softer than most people think it is. That upset win at Wisconsin remains their only victory over a team in the Pomeroy Top 60. They're now 1-1 in Big East play heading into a huge road game at Syracuse tomorrow. A win there would obviously put them right back into the Big East title race, but it's not likely. Unless they get a lot of easy fast break points, Marquette tends to struggle against teams that play a zone, and Syracuse plays the zone better than anybody else.

Temple 78, #3 Duke 73
With the ACC regular season opening up on Saturday, this was a classic letdown game for Duke against a quality Temple squad. Temple is a team that, under Fran Dunphy, never beats themselves. Duke needed to be aggressive offensively, but their backcourt just didn't show up. Seth Curry, Austin Rivers and Andre Dawkins combined for 18 points on 5-for-19 shooting in a combined 77 minutes played. The Plumlees actually played well (33 points on 15-for-24 shooting), but they're not the type of explosive scorers that can take over games by themselves. Temple got a big game from Khalif Wyatt (22 points on 8-for-12 shooting, along with 4 rebounds, 5 steals and 3 assists).

I think too many people let their visceral hate of Duke cause them to underrate the Blue Devils every season. I saw a whole slew of people on television and online complain after this game that Duke never deserved to be ranked so high and probably won't be in the Top Ten again all season. But if Duke shouldn't have been ranked so high, who exactly should have been ahead of them? They came into this game 12-1 with wins over Kansas, Michigan State, Michigan and Belmont, and only a loss on the road at Ohio State. Even after this loss they're still in the Top Ten in the Pomeroy ratings and all three of the Sagarin ratings. It's not typical for them to be so mentally lazy as to have a letdown game like this on the eve of ACC play, but I'm willing to give them a pass for one bad game. They'll open ACC play tomorrow at Georgia Tech, and then get Virginia at Cameron next Thursday.

This is Temple's biggest win of the season thus far, though they also have quality wins over Wichita State and Villanova, along with a bad loss to Bowling Green. They've been my pick since the preseason to win the Atlantic Ten, and I'm sticking with them, but there's no question that Saint Louis will be a tough challenger, as will Xavier if they can get their act together. Temple has to be careful as they've got a dangerous trap game tomorrow at home against a quality Dayton team. It lies between this huge win over Duke and a Wednesday road game at St. Louis.

Dayton 79, Saint Louis 72, OT
This was a close, hard fought game. The teams combined for 25 turnovers, and almost as many fouls (47) as made baskets (48). The difference was that Dayton was able to hit the big three (50% for the game, including an important one by Luke Fabrizius in overtime to put them up by four points with just two minutes to go). St. Louis is actually hitting 40.5% of their threes on the season, but they just couldn't get one to fall here (5-for-19 for the game).

This isn't a bad loss for St. Louis, but they blew a chance to put some distance between them and this surging Dayton team in the standings. A few weeks ago the Atlantic Ten looked like a clear battle between Temple, Xavier and Saint Louis without anybody else even close. Now, Dayton is forcing their way into that picture, as Xavier is potentially falling out.

Dayton is now 11-4 with wins over Alabama, Minnesota and St. Louis, along with bad losses to Miami (OH) and Buffalo. They are 1-0 in A-10 play and need to finish 10-6 or better to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. They'll play at Temple on Saturday, and then at St. Bonaventure on Wednesday.

St. Louis is still loved by the computers (14th in Pomeroy and 17th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR), but this loss emphasizes the fact that their resume is startlingly soft. They have three decent wins (Washington, Villanova and Oklahoma), but I don't have a single one of those teams in my current BP68. With a bad loss to Loyola-Marymount, they actually have a Sagarin ELO_CHESS sitting at 69th right now. They will try to get the winning touch back tomorrow against George Washington, and then have a big home game on Wednesday night against Temple. That will be their only game of the regular season against Temple, and they could really use the quality win for their resume.

Missouri Shoots The Lights Out Against Oklahoma

2012-01-06T19:47:00.000-05:00

#6 Missouri 87, Oklahoma 49
It's rare that you have a game where one team is at the top of their game, hitting every shot and making every play, and the other team can't hit a shot to save their lives. When it happens you have 38 point blowouts. Mizzou hit 57% of their threes and had a 70.4 eFG%. In comparison, Oklahoma had a 36.1 eFG%. With Missouri now 14-0 and with a #6 ranking, it's got Missouri fans thinking Big 12 title and Final Four appearance. I feel like I've been pouring cold water on this team all season, and unfortunately I've got to do it again. Missouri is playing very well, but there are still question marks.

First of all, this kind of shooting differential isn't going to be typical. If Oklahoma and Missouri both shoot closer to their season average then this becomes a 10-15 point victory, not a 38 point victory. Remember that this Missouri team is coming off very narrow victories against Old Dominion and Illinois. And honestly, Missouri hasn't beaten an elite team all season long. They have a few decent wins (Illinois, California, Villanova, Oklahoma, Notre Dame), but not one of those teams is better than a bubble team. Missouri has only played one true road game all season, and it was that nail-biter to a mediocre Old Dominion team. Their biggest test of the season so far, by far, will be coming up on Saturday at Kansas State. If they come out of there with a double-digit victory then I'll really start becoming a believer. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Missouri fall.

As for Oklahoma, it's not new for them to struggle offensively against quality teams. Their only offensive weapon is Steven Pledger - keep the ball out of his hands and they struggle mightily to score. They have played three quality opponents all season long (St. Louis, Missouri and Cincinnati), and had an eFG% below 45.0 and scored under 1 PPP in all three games. It's no surprise that they lost all three games, too. They are still 10-3 overall this season, and will get on the bubble with a 9-9 or better record in Big 12 play, but I don't have a lot of confidence that Oklahoma can do that. And with a tough opening schedule (this road game at Missouri followed by a home game against Kansas on Saturday, then a road game at Oklahoma State and a home game against Kansas State), they could easily open up 0-4 in conference play if they're not careful. Honestly, I expect them to be underdogs in all of three of those upcoming games.

La Salle 80, Xavier 70
At this point I've already beaten to death the issues surrounding the Xavier/Cincinnati brawl. While the Bearcats rallied together after that fight and have played their best basketball of the season these past few weeks, Xavier has mentally fallen apart. Even Tu Holloway, who's always been a cold-blooded assassin on the court, looks scared and tentative at times. They've now lost five of six games since that fight, including a horrible loss to Hawaii and iffy losses here to La Salle and also to Oral Roberts and Long Beach State.

At some point, you have to figure Xavier is going to pick up the quality of their play. The roster and coaching staff is the same as it was when they were 8-0 with wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt and Cincinnati. But the question is: will the damage to their resume be too great to overcome? They're now 9-5 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that's spun all the way out to 79th. They'll need to get to 10-6 in conference play to feel good about their at-large hopes, and they'll try to get back on the winning track tomorrow at Fordham (ask Harvard fans if Fordham is a pushover at home). After that they head home for three important games, against Duquesne, St. Bonaventure and St. Joe's.

La Salle is now 11-4 with this win, though they're still a long way off from at-large contention. This is their first quality win, and they have bad losses to Delaware and Robert Morris. This win is a good start to Atlantic Ten play for them, and they'll try to keep the winning going on Sunday against UMass. They have a key stretch coming up January 14th and 18th when they'll play consecutive road games against Dayton and Temple.

Illinois 57, Northwestern 56
Northwestern looked like they were going to run away with this game in the first half. John Shurna had 17 first half points, concluding with a three that put the Wildcats up by ten with two minutes left in that half. But Shurna didn't score again until the final minute of the game, and his cold streak coincided with a brutal second half offensive performance for Northwestern. They finished the half 6-for-25 from the field with five turnovers. For the game they finished with only a 40.9 eFG%, their third worst shooting performance of the season (and the other two were against Baylor and Ohio State, two teams on another level defensively from Illinois).

This isn't a "bad" loss for Northwestern's resume, but it's a big problem. When you're a bubble team, you always want to try to steal some upsets, but the games you really need to take care of are the home games against other bubble teams. Illinois and Northwestern could very well be fighting for one of the final spots in the Field of 68 on Selection Sunday - this loss could be a big problem for the Wildcats. Their early season victory over Seton Hall is looking a lot better than it did at the time, but they've lost their four other games against the RPI Top 75. They're now 1-2 in Big Ten play, heading into a brutal part of their schedule (at Michigan, vs Michigan State, at Wisconsin). They probably need to get to 9-9 in conference play to earn an at-large bid, so it would behoove them to avoid a 1-5 start.

This is a big win for Illinois for the same reason it's a rough loss for Northwestern. It's arguably their best win of the season (they also have a home win over Gonzaga), and they're now a solid 4-3 against the RPI Top 100 with a 2-1 Big Ten record and a home game against bottom-feeder Nebraska up next. They also have home games coming up against Ohio State and Wisconsin in the next couple of weeks. A victory in either game would give them another win to brag about on Selection Sunday.

Michigan State With A Bizarre, Controversial Win Over Wisconsin

2012-01-05T23:45:00.000-05:00

#11 Michigan State 63, #19 Wisconsin 60, OT
I've watched a lot of basketball games in my life, and I've never seen what happened at the end of this game. Wisconsin's Ryan Evans hit what looked like the game-tying three pointer, and the refs called it good on the floor. As they went to review it, the tv broadcast showed an angle where you could see him shooting with the tv clock, and it clearly showed the shot got off in time. Then when switching to another angle to see if Evans had his feet behind his line, one of the announcers noted that the clock on the scoreboard behind the basket had a different time on it than the television clock. You can see a picture of that here. I'd never seen that happen and didn't know the rule, and neither did the announcers. Apparently, the rule is that the clock on the scoreboard is the one that matters, and so the shot was ruled no good and Michigan State was given the win. It's particularly bizarre when you remember that with 20 seconds to go in overtime the refs had stopped to review what time was on the clock and set the clock at 20.1 seconds, even though photos clearly showed that the whistle was blown at 20.3 seconds. Bob Wischusen, who was doing play-by-play for the game actually cracked a joke about how those 0.2 seconds taken off the clock couldn't possibly matter anyway. Pretty funny in retrospect.

For Wisconsin, this home loss to Michigan State comes right after that crazy home loss to Iowa. As I talked about in my recap of that game, Wisconsin lost because of historically awful shooting (only last season's 36-33 Big Ten tournament game against Penn State was worse among Wisconsin games from the past five years). Shooting wasn't quite so historically awful in this game, but it was still brutal (5-for-22 on threes, and a 37.9 eFG%).

One of the most important themes I try to stress on this blog is the difference between resumes/results and team performance/quality. On Selection Sunday, resumes are what matter. Who did you beat? Who did you lose to? And these back-to-back home losses for Wisconsin affect their resume. Certainly it eliminates any realistic path to a Big Ten regular season title, and it will drop their NCAA Tournament seed. But as for projecting the future, I don't think Wisconsin fans should panic. Sports analysts have a bad habit of confusing bad/good shooting with bad/good offense. Wisconsin's offense is still fine - they've just had two straight games with horrid shooting. Michigan State didn't even contest too many of their threes in this game - the Badgers shooters just couldn't hit the proverbial broad side of a barn. At the end of the season they'll hit between 35 and 40% on their threes, just like they do every season, and they'll be one of the better teams in the Big Ten. While I don't agree with the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings that still have them as the #2 team in the country, I do think they're one of the 15 best teams in the country. They'll win some big games and still end up with 11 or more Big Ten wins this season. Of course, with a road game at Michigan coming up on Sunday followed by a road game at Purdue, Wisconsin is at serious risk of falling to 1-4 in Big Ten play. If they're going to finish in the top three or four in the Big Ten standings, they've really got to take one of those two games.

Michigan State got a lucky that Wisconsin shot so poorly on a game where they had all sorts of foul trouble, a down game from Draymond Green and an invisible night from Brandon Wood. The bright spot was Keith Appling, who was the best player on the floor for Michigan State, and who went toe-to-toe with Jordan Taylor and held his own. This win, however it happened, is huge for Michigan State's Big Ten title hopes. They're now 3-0 and in first place in the standings, with head-to-head wins over two of their top rivals (Indiana being the other). Their two match-ups with Ohio State won't tip off for more than a month, so it will be a long time before this conference race is settled, but the Spartans are off to the early lead. They head into a relatively soft part of their schedule now, starting with a game on Tuesday against Iowa followed by a road game at Northwestern.

Seton Hall 75, #8 UConn 63
I watched a lot of this game, and UConn was just lifeless. Seton Hall grabbed a double-digit lead late in the first half, and basically led by around 10-15 points the rest of the way, and UConn just seemed resigned to that outcome. Seton Hall won every 50-50 ball, while the Huskies appeared happy to just sit and launch jump shots. Their FTA/FGA ratio was 29.8 - this season they are 10-0 when their FTA/FGA ratio is higher than 30. Seton Hall was clicking - besides their tremendous rebounding (a 39.4 OR%) they hit 50% of threes and had assists on 63% of their made baskets.

Considering that this big win comes right on the heels of a 19 point destruction of West Virginia, Seton Hall's at-large hopes have to be talked about. I had already moved Seton Hall into the Field of 68 before this win, and these two wins are tremendous, but it's only a sample size of 80 minutes. Prior to these two wins, Seton Hall's only quality wins all season were over Dayton and St. Joe's, and they had a loss to Northwestern. It's a solid resume, but I don't think we should go overboard. It's hard to see Seton Hall finishing higher than around sixth place in the Big East. They have a potential letdown game on Saturday at Providence, though they won't play another ranked team until January 28th (Louisville), so these next few weeks will be an opportunity for the Pirates to fatten their Big East record.

I think UConn fans should be disappointed in every player on the roster for this game. Even Jeremy Lamb, who was the only real offense UConn had (19 points on 7-for-14 shooting), was too passive. He entered the season as a Big East Player of the Year candidate - a Big East Player of the Year needs to step up and carry his team in a situation like this. That said, I'm not sure even Lamb playing his best could have delivered a win here. Shabazz Napier was an ice cold 2-for-12 from the field, and Andre Drummond was invisible (4 points, 5 rebounds).

Connecticut is now 2-1 in Big East play, though they won't get a ton of credit for beating USF and St. John's. They'll play at Rutgers on Saturday, but then their schedule gets tougher in a hurry, beginning with a Monday night game against West Virginia.

Cincinnati 71, Notre Dame 55
It's gotten more and more apparent that while the big brawl spooked the Xavier players, it led the Cincinnati players to rally around their coach and their teammates. They've won seven straight since the brawl, including wins over Pittsburgh, Oklahoma and now Notre Dame. They now have all of their suspended players back and, at full strength, are on a heck of a roll. What's changed more than anything has been defensive effort. They had allowed 1.14 PPP in their three losses, to Presbyterian, Xavier and Marshall. Since the brawl they've given up more than 1 PPP only once in seven games, including just 0.89 PPP in this three game winning streak over Pitt, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. You can often see a team's confidence and overall mentality by the way their defensive efficiency changes throughout the season, and even without watching Cincy play you could tell that they've upped the defensive intensity.

This strong streak of play has brought Cincinnati up to the bubble, which is a lot better off than anyone thought they'd be right after that brawl, but we've still got a long way to go to Selection Sunday. Is this play just a temporary run motivated by that fight, or will they really keep up this level of play the rest of the season? Given the talent on the Cincinnati roster, and the tendency of these players to be inconsistent, I'm leaning toward the former rather than the latter. But we'll see. They will try to move to 3-0 against St. John's on Saturday, and then up the level of difficulty on Monday night at Georgetown.

Notre Dame isn't a bad team, and they did upset Pittsburgh last week, but they're clearly a step behind bubble quality. They'll fight hard each game in the Big East, but I'll be surprised if they finish better than 8-10, and they'll need to finish at least 10-8 to have a shot at an at-large bid. They'll play at Louisville on Saturday and then get USF at home on Tuesday.

Virginia Wins Again, But Their Resume Remains Soft

2012-01-05T00:10:00.000-05:00

#23 Virginia 57, LSU 52
Preseason I thought Virginia was still a year away from making the NCAA Tournament, and I've been very impressed with how well they've been playing the past few weeks. LSU isn't the most impressive victory, but they've been feisty at home and Virginia had to tough it out in a game that was tight the entire way. Mike Scott only took 9 shots all game. The slack was picked up by Sammy Zeglinski and Joe Harris, who were a combined 6-for-10 on threes. The Cavaliers have now won 11 straight games, including victories over Michigan, George Mason, Oregon and now LSU. Of course, none of those are really big time victories, and that's my concern. Throw in the loss to TCU from November and Virginia's resume is a lot softer than people think it is. Virginia has one victory over a team currently rated higher than 90th in the Pomeroy ratings (that would be the win over Michigan).

Assuming Virginia can take care of business in their ACC opener against Miami on Saturday, they'll move into the Top 20 in the human polls, and will start getting buzz as a potential 4 or 5 seed on Selection Sunday. The problem is, the NIT history books are full of teams that were ranked high after rolling through soft non-conference schedules - when teams do that and then struggle in conference play, it's the conference play that ends up mattering on Selection Sunday. As well as Virginia has played so far, an 8-8 record in ACC play without any victories over Duke or North Carolina very likely will mean an NIT bid. They need to get to at least 9-7 to be in a good position for an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament.

LSU is probably still a year away from seriously contending for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but they're improving rapidly. They're now inside the Pomeroy and Sagarin Top 100, even though their resume is still weak. The win over Marquette is great, but it's their only quality win, and they've got bad losses to South Alabama and Coastal Carolina. They'll open SEC play on Saturday against Ole Miss. After that they head on the road to play Alabama on Wednesday.

#5 Baylor 61, Texas A&M 52
This was, in a lot of ways, a typical Baylor game. They got a healthy percentage of offensive boards (a 31.0 OR%) and their length and athleticism really bothered Texas A&M's offense (the Aggies hit a brutal 28.9% of their two-point attempts, the first time they've even hit below 40% in any game this season). But as is so often the case, Baylor's defensive rebounding was poor (a 30.0 OR% for Texas A&M) and their offense struggled to score points out of their half court offense (despite 7 steals and 9 offensive boards, Baylor still only had a 41.2 eFG%, and 0.91 PPP).

I just threw out a lot of stats.... even though I'm not sure they mean anything. The fact is that it's hard to gauge these Big 12 teams until more of them play each other. For example, it's still not clear Texas A&M is any good. I'm projecting them to turn things around and get back to the Tournament bubble, but I've been wrong before. St. John's is the only non-cupcake they've beaten all season long, and they've got a bad loss to Rice. And Baylor just came off a narrow two point win over a Mississippi State team that I expect to be a bubble team as well. And their game before that was an overtime win over a West Virginia team that just got destroyed by Seton Hall. I think Baylor is a good team, but I still think there are huge question marks. They'll play at Texas Tech on Saturday and then at Kansas State on Tuesday. I'll definitely be looking to see if Baylor can clean up those issues. Remember, Baylor's been super-athletic, super-long and super-talented for several years now. Defensive rebounding and offensive efficiency have held them back every season but the one year Tweety Carter led them to the Elite 8, so there's no reason to assume that they'll clean things up this season.

As I said earlier, Texas A&M has proven nothing so far this year. I've been willing to give them a partial pass because of the Billy Kennedy health issues and the Khris Middleton injury, but in the end their resume is their resume and they're running out of time to turn things around. If they can win on Saturday against Iowa State it would be their best win of the season by far. If they can't win, looming road games against Missouri, Kansas and Texas over the next three weeks will likely send them to a 2-5 start to Big 12 play, which would be a tough hole to climb out of.

Fordham 60, #21 Harvard 54
Harvard learned the hard way here that it's tough being a ranked team and getting every opponent's best shot. Fordham got hot from the field (50.0 3P%, 55.8 eFG%), and it was enough for them to overcome the Crimson. Harvard also got uncharacteristically quiet nights from Kyle Casey and Keith Wright, who are averaging 22.7 points on 16.4 shots from the field per game, but who finished with 17 points on 7 shots from the field here.

People who are still talking about Harvard's at-large hopes are people that, for the most part, don't realize that the Ivy League doesn't play a conference tournament. Since there is no conference tournament, the only way Harvard can possibly not win the auto bid is if they lose at least two conference games. So the best case scenario for them where they're not the auto bid winner (since there are nothing but "bad" losses to be had in Ivy play) are three bad losses with two decent wins (Florida State and St. Joseph's) on Selection Sunday. They deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament, but that resume is just too soft. They'd almost surely get left out of the Field of 68. Remember that last year's team had a better set of losses (only one truly bad loss to Yale, along with two iffy losses to a good Princeton team) and also had a couple of wins over bubble teams (Colorado and Boston College) and wasn't even seriously considered on Selection Sunday. That resume just isn't good enough. And so that's why I think Harvard doesn't have a serious shot at an at-large bid. Of course, there are no real Ivy League challengers this season, so I expect Harvard to run away with the title and the auto bid.

This is probably the best win of the Tom Pecora era at Fordham. Last year they beat St. John's, but that team wasn't ranked at the time. The program is definitely improving in Year 2 of the Pecora Era, and with a very young roster they should just get better over the next couple of seasons. But they're still a long, long way from contending with the top tier of the Atlantic Ten. This is their only quality win of the season and they have bad losses to Monmouth, Manhattan and Loyola-Chicago. Last year's team went 1-15 in Atlantic Ten play. This year's team has a good shot at something like 3-to-5 conference wins. Like I said.... they're getting better, but they have a long, long way to go.

Pittsburgh Continues To Slide

2012-01-02T23:38:00.000-05:00

Cincinnati 66, #22 Pittsburgh 63
While Xavier has been decimated by the brawl with Cincinnati, both in terms of personnel and team psychology/chemistry, Cincinnati has been largely unaffected. They played four cupcakes and then beat Oklahoma at home, and now pulled this nice road upset of Pittsburgh. By the time they take the court again they'll be back at full strength, with Yancy Gates back in the lineup. Considering how badly they behaved in that brawl, it's disconcerting that Cincy didn't end up suffering for it at all, but you have to give them credit for coming up with a win at the Petersen Events Center. Cincy hit seven 3-pointers in the second half, and finished the game 41% behind the arc. They also committed only eight turnovers all game.

Pitt has fallen apart the past couple of weeks with three straight losses. And what's stood out more than anything over this streak has been horrific offensive execution. Offensive efficiency has been the hallmark of the Jamie Dixon era, but they've scored just 0.98 PPP over this three game losing streak. And you can just see that there's no flow on offense - the team is just playing one-on-one basketball. In this game they had 17 turnovers and finished with only a 45.5 eFG%, despite 17 offensive rebounds. A lot of this has to do with the absence of Travon Woodall, of course. Woodall is a superb offensive creator and passer. But Pitt shouldn't be fragile enough that one injury turns their offense into the Memphis offense.

Pittsburgh is now 0-2 in Big East play with a bad loss to Wagner, and no quality wins (Oklahoma State is their best win, but they'll have to improve to move into the RPI Top 50). They might need to get to 9-9 in conference play just to make the NCAA Tournament (at 8-10 they'll enter the Big East tournament with work left to do). They'll play at DePaul on Thursday, which is no walkover this season. After that they'll head home to play Rutgers and then head on the road to play Marquette and Syracuse.

This is the best win Cincinnati has had all year (Oklahoma is the other potential quality victory that they have). They've also got a bad loss to Presbyterian. They'll try to keep rolling on Wednesday when they play Notre Dame. Their next game after that will be Saturday against St. John's.

#13 Marquette 81, Villanova 77
This was a "taking care of business" game for Marquette. At home this is a game they're supposed to win. But this game is noteworthy because in a narrow defeat this was probably the best Villanova has played all season. They fought an aggressive rebounding Marquette team to a draw on the boards, and if they'd shot the ball even remotely well behind the arc (Nova finished 3-for-17 on threes) they'd have won the game.

Villanova's strongest win all season came against La Salle, and prior to this game they had lost by double-digits to every quality team they'd played (Saint Louis, Missouri, West Virginia, Temple and St. Joe's). They also have a brutal one point loss to Santa Clara. They're not a bad team, but their resume is weak (their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 120th and their RPI is 92nd). But hanging in tough and effectively fighting to a draw against a good Marquette team in their building was a nice performance, and should give the Wildcats some confidence as they head into home games against USF (on Thursday) and DePaul (Sunday).

Marquette is now 12-2 with wins over Wisconsin, Villanova and Washington, along with a bad loss to LSU. We'll have a very good idea whether they'll make a run at the Big East title over the next few days. They'll play at Georgetown on Wednesday, and at Syracuse on Saturday. A win in either game would be huge. Note that they'll get a return visit from Georgetown in March, but won't play Syracuse again in regular season play. So the luck of the draw says that Marquette will be in a hole with the tiebreaker if they lose to Syracuse.

#16 Michigan 61, Minnesota 56
Michigan struggled a lot more in this game than I thought they would. It took a career-best performance from freshman Trey Burke (27 points on 8-for-11 shooting) to put this game away. But this Burke performance is what is noteworthy. It was assumed that Tim Hardaway, Jr would take over this team after Darius Morris left for the NBA. But Burke, the star freshman, is already proving to be at least the equal of Hardaway. Having somebody who can take the team on his back when Hardaway is struggling (Hardaway was 2-for-14 from the field in this game) will be huge for a Michigan team that needs perimeter players that can create offense to open things up for their shooters.

Despite the narrow margin of victory, this still goes down as a pretty good win for Michigan. Their best win this season was over Memphis, and they don't have any bad losses. It's a Tournament resume, but only narrowly. They certainly haven't earned that #16 ranking yet. They'll get a chance now as they head into a brutal week - on the road at Indiana on Thursday, and then at home against Wisconsin on Sunday.

Minnesota is still 12-3 after this loss, but they're 0-2 in Big Ten play and don't have any quality wins yet. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 35th, but they'd more likely than not be left out of the Tournament if the season ended now. The bare minimum for an at-large bid will be an 8-10 Big Ten record, which would require an 8-8 finish. They'll play Iowa on Wednesday, and then Purdue on Sunday.

Creighton Bounces Back At Wichita State

2012-01-02T22:19:00.001-05:00

#19 Creighton 68, Wichita State 61
After an impressive non-conference performance, Creighton stumbled in their Missouri Valley opener at home against Missouri State. Rather than getting to bounce back against conference bottom feeders, they instead had to head right on the road to face the team most likely to challenge them for the conference title - Wichita State. Creighton was actually a six or seven point underdog in Vegas. The Bluejays pulled the upset by doing what they do best - shooting the ball. They might be the best shooting team in the country (they're third in the nation in eFG%), and what made this performance (8-for-15 on threes and a 50.0 eFG%) so impressive was that Wichita State's strength is perimeter defense. Wichita State is top among Missouri Valley teams this season in both 3P% against (28.4%) and eFG% against (44.0%). They get up in your face and don't allow you to shoot. And that's especially true when the crowd is rocking at the Roundhouse, which it was here.

In my opinion, both of these teams deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament, and both will probably get in. The computers believe Wichita State is the slightly better team, and while they may be right, Creighton's got the much stronger resume for the time being. Creighton has wins over Wichita State, San Diego State, Northwestern and Iowa, and no bad losses (either the losses to St. Joe's or Missouri State could end up iffy, but right now both of those look like bubble teams). They're now 1-1 in Missouri Valley play and heading into a very manageable part of their schedule. They'll play Drake tomorrow. Their next competitive game will likely be January 10th against Northern Iowa.

Wichita State, as I said, is loved by the computers (14th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and 16th in Pomeroy), but they haven't been able to pull out close wins against quality opponents (they lost to Temple in overtime, for example). They don't have any bad losses, but that win over UNLV is their only quality win of the season. They're now 1-1 in Missouri Valley play, and may need to get to 12-6 just to make the NCAA Tournament. At 11-7 they'll likely enter the Missouri Valley tournament with work left to do to earn their way into the Field of 68. The Shockers head on the road now to play Evansville on Wednesday and Southern Illinois on Saturday.

New Mexico 64, Saint Louis 60
If these teams were called "Memphis" and "Michigan State" this game might have gotten the attention it deserved. Of course, part of the problem was that this game was on The Mtn, which I'm convinced is a closed circuit television network that you can only receive inside arenas. I've never met anybody that actually gets the channel at home, which is a travesty when you consider how many great games are stuck on it. Let the SWAC be buried on Martian Television. College basketball fans should get to watch a game like New Mexico/Saint Louis.

Saint Louis acquitted themselves well here. They have struggled to score at times this season, but against a ferocious New Mexico defense (the Lobos are rated 7th in the nation in Pomeroy Defensive Efficiency) they committed only eight turnovers and shot 57.1% on twos. They were undone by 3-for-18 shooting behind the arc. Even Cody Ellis, who's usually lights out, was only 2-for-7. Credit has to go to New Mexico, too, for doing just enough offensively against a Saint Louis team that is excellent defensively as well.

I'll say the same thing about these two teams that I said about Creighton and Wichita State higher up in this post. Both teams deserve to make the NCAA Tournament, and the odds definitely favor both getting in. New Mexico, with this win, has won 10 straight games to get to 12-2 with victories over St. Louis, Missouri State, Oklahoma State and Washington State, along with bad losses back in November to Santa Clara and New Mexico State. A 9-5 Mountain West record should be sufficient for an at-large bid. They'll open up conference play January 14th at Wyoming.

St. Louis is also 12-2, with wins over Villanova, Oklahoma and Washington, along with a bad loss to Loyola Marymount. They probably need to get to 10-6 or better in conference play to feel good about their at-large chances. They'll open conference play Wednesday at Dayton. Their next tough game after that will be January 11th against Temple.

Gonzaga 72, Xavier 65
You can give a team a pass for losing a game or two against quality opponents when missing suspended players, as was the case when Xavier had their brawl with Cincinnati and then fell to Oral Roberts and Long Beach State. But there was no excuse to lose to Hawaii, particularly since they only had one regular suspended for that game. And then barely beating Southern Illinois by ten points? And now, with every last player back and the team at full strength, losing at home by seven points to Gonzaga? Remember that this Xavier team was 8-0 with wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Butler and was ranked 8th in the nation before the suspensions.

While something has obviously gone wrong with this Xavier team, some credit has to go to Gonzaga for this win. What stood out were the 20 nice minutes that Sam Dower gave them off the bench (20 points on 7-for-11 shooting, along with 10 rebounds). Dower's not going to play that many minutes too often, but it's a sign of the tremendous frontcourt depth Gonzaga has. The Zags backcourt is still finding itself (they've got a whole bunch of good players, but no clear stars or go-to players), but the front court is as good as it's been in the Mark Few era.

Xavier now heads into A-10 play at 9-4 and spiraling out of control. If the season ended now they wouldn't even be in the Tournament. The Atlantic Ten is very strong this year, but Xavier's going to have to finish 11-5 or better to have a good chance at an at-large bid. They'll open up on Wednesday at La Salle. If they can get that win then their manageable early schedule could lead to a 4-0 or 5-0 start, which can help the team mentally get past the Cincy brawl and its aftermath.

The Zags are now 11-2 with wins over Arizona, Xavier, Notre Dame, Washington State and Butler, and no bad losses. They've got a couple of easy games coming up at home, on Thursday against Pepperdine and on Saturday against Santa Clara.