Sunday, December 17, 2006

W-12 BP65

This week was pretty slow as far as good games went - there just isn't much going on during the week with most schools having their final exams. Next week should be more of the same. Still, a few good games went down in the late afternoon and evening on Saturday, so let's get to those first:

#18 Butler 68, Purdue 65
A big win for the Bulldogs, and a big missed opportunity for Purdue. It was clear in this game which time had more talent, but Butler had the senior experience and consistency. Their free throw shooting was outstanding (except, ironically, at the very end), while Purdue kept playing over-active basketball in the pressure. At the end of the game, Purdue had several chances to tie (not just the desperation 3-pointer they've been showing on Sportscenter) and they either took an off-balanced shot or had a turnover every time. Purdue has definitely had an outstanding out-of-conference season, and the program is clearly showing that they have a life after Gene Keady, but it's hard to see how they're going to compete with the big boys in the Big 10. I see their ceiling as 5th in the conference or so.

Kentucky 61, Louisville 49
A solid win for a Kentucky team that has a better resume than people realize. Somehow, they didn't get a single vote in either Top 25 polls last week, despite the fact that they're looking fairly safe for a Tournament at-large bid right now. They may only be 7-3, but their three losses are to UCLA, UNC and at Memphis. All those losses say to me is that Kentucky is not a top team. But they're definitely a team around the border of the Top 25. For the record, they currently have an RPI of 33, and Jeff Sagarin ranks them 42nd. Louisville on the other hand.... eh. They have looked pretty bad so far. You'd think that Rick Pitino could put something together at some point this year, but he's running out of time. The Big East season is about to start, and Louisville needs to finish near the top of it to get back to the Tournament.

Texas Tech 71, Arkansas 56
A very surprising outcome. Texas Tech hadn't played well this year, with the lack of a second scorer and the distraction of Bobby Knight's wins record, so this trip to an up-and-coming team seemed like a bad situation. Instead, Arkansas looked absolutely atrocious for the first 10 minutes, and never was able to make up ground on Tech. This is the kind of win that could be a good springboard into the Big 12 season for Knight. As for Arkansas, I'm having trouble rationalizing why they should be the Tournament right now. They're 8-2, but the best team they've beaten has been Southern Illinois. The two best teams they've played, Missouri and Texas Tech, controlled them. You have to wonder if Arkansas is athletic enough to handle top teams gunning for them. Last year they were a team that others slept on. This year, no one is sleeping on the Razorbacks.

Georgia 96, #16 Gonzaga 83
So are the Zags the team that got beat up by Georgia and Washington State, or the team that dominated Washington? I want to say it's the latter, but Gonzaga's defense just looks too atrocious for them to be a top team. Honestly, they looked bad at everything but scoring. The had outstanding shooting - 59% from the field, including 11-22 from 3-point land - yet somehow lost by 13. How did that happen? For one thing, they couldn't get a defensive board, giving up 14 offensive boards to only 18 defensive boards for themselves. Add that to their 21 turnovers and you figure out how Georgia had an amazing 76 shots taken from the field, to only 56 for Gonzaga. If I want to find a silver lining for Gonzaga it's this: Their loss to Washington State was a "look ahead" game before they dominated Washington. So, is it possible that this was their look ahead game before their next matchup with Duke? They better hope so.

Missouri State 80, Indiana State 60
Another very good win for Missouri State, a team that might actually move into the Top 25 this week. They already have some marquee wins, and look pretty solid as far as a Tournament bid. And when you consider that they are probably the best threat to steal the conference from Wichita State, they might be looking at a seed around a 6 or 7. As for Indiana State, a bad start to a very important conference season. They don't have the out-of-conference resume of a Tournament team, so they need a good conference season to have a postseason.

Fresno State 69, Creighton 54
I think that, along with a lot of other people, I really overranked Creighton during the preaseason. Outside of Nate Funk (who hasn't been as good as billed himself) and Anthony Tolliver, they really don't have any other good players. They have struggled mightily to score against good teams. Right now, they do not have a Tournament resume at all, and need to send a message in two weeks when they have their conference opener at home against Missouri State. On the other, how about Fresno State? They haven't done enough to get into the BP65 yet, but their 9-1 record is nothing to sniff out. If they can close out the out-of-conference season with wins over Cal Poly, San Diego and Stanford, and then finish 12-4 in conference, they might be a 24-5 team out of the WAC. They wouldn't have any elite wins, but can you see a 24-5 team from a good mid-major conference getting kept out? Either way, Fresno State won't be in the BP65 yet, because I'd like to see them actually beat San Diego and Stanford first. As for the other 65 teams, here they are:



1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. LSU
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Arizona
2. Wisconsin

3. Alabama
3. Texas
3. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
3. Duke

4. UConn
4. Texas A&M
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Kentucky
5. Maryland
5. Tennessee
5. Michigan State

6. California
6. Washington
6. WICHITA ST (MVC)
6. Boston College

7. Missouri State
7. Syracuse
7. Virginia
7. Oklahoma St

8. Gonzaga
8. Illinois
8. NEVADA (WAC)
8. AIR FORCE (MWC)

9. Georgia Tech
9. UAB
9. Oregon
9. Missouri

10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Clemson
10. Villanova
10. West Virginia

11. Texas Tech
11. Purdue
11. BUTLER (HORIZON)
11. San Diego State

12. Notre Dame
12. Northern Iowa
12. Michigan
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. MARIST (MAAC)
13. AKRON (MAC)

14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. NORTHERN ARIZONA (BIG SKY)

15. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)

16. UC-SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. SACRED HEART (NORTHEAST)
16. SAM HOUSTON ST (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)

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