Sunday, January 28, 2007

W-6 BP65

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas A&M

3. Oklahoma State
3. Duke
3. Oregon

4. Texas
4. Alabama
4. Arizona
4. Clemson

5. Tennessee
5. Marquette

6. USC
6. LSU
6. Georgetown
6. Washington State

7. Boston College
7. Illinois
7. kentucky

8. Creighton
8. Maryland
8. Michigan State
8. Missouri State

9. West Virginia
9. Northern Iowa
9. Notre Dame

10. Indiana
10. Georgia Tech
10. California

11. Virginia Tech
11. Texas Tech

12. Florida State
12. Arkansas
12. Louisville
12. Wichita State


14. PENN (IVY)



As promised, other teams seriously considered:


Anonymous said...

Where is the love for New Mexico State?

Jeff said...

New Mexico State did have that good win over Air Force, but let's be honest here: their schedule has been a joke. They are 2-1 vs. the RPI top 100. Only three games against decent or good teams. Meanwhile, they're 7-1 against teams with an RPI worse than 200. Their strength of schedule is currently 267. That is why despite their 16-4 record they have an overall RPI of 85. A non-glamor/BCS team needs an RPI inside the top 60 to even be considered for an at-large bid. If they don't pull out their road finale against Nevada they really have to win every other game and get to the conference tourney finals to have a serious at-large shot.

Anonymous said...

How is LSU a 6 seed? They don't even deserve to be in the tournament.

Jeff said...

They're a good team that should turn it around. This is a prediction of how things will turn out on Selection Sunday, not of where things stand now. LSU is due to get hot and win a few games heading into the most important part of the season.

Anonymous said...

Predictions are suppose to be if the bracket ended today. Either way your bracket is awful. No UNLV? They have a 12 RPI. Texas a 4, Butler a 10? THIS WHOLE THING IS WRONG. Rip it up and start over.

Jeff said...

Actually, Predictions are usually about predicting the future. Anyone can take the current Top 25 and divide by four. If that's what you want you can read many other blogs, or start your own. Here, I talk about the future. You are free to disagree, but I remember angry posters earlier this year telling me how dumb I was for not giving Wichita State a 2 seed, or for not giving Pitt a 1 seed. The fact is that things will change in the future. And I'm doing my best to predict it. If you want to criticize, please keep it constructive.

Anonymous said...

I must admit, you're well out there on your own with some of your prognistications. LSU at #6, Alabama at #4... maybe you think that the SEC will get great bids like nearly every BCS conference does, but having Alabama at #4 is perplexing. Tell me where you see them turning it around.

Anonymous said...

NO 'Nova, UNLV or Stanford?!?

Virginia Tech, the current leader of the ACC, at #11 !?!

What planet are you from, and why are your picks even worth mentioning on an otherwise decent bracket site like this one:

Dude, I don't know how you get to have your picks on that page along the ESPNs and Jerry Palms... you're way out of your league if you're just gonna guess like that.

D. Moore said...

Wow. Some folks just can't get their heads around the idea of predictions that, you know, Predict. A shiny January RPI doesn't mean squat if you get bitch slapped by a tough February schedule.

Villanova -- the guy has a point on this one. A current RPI of 16 (they scheduled away games at Xavier, Iowa & Oklahoma), 4-4 in January, and a soft remaining schedule that probably projects to 6-4 the rest of the way. They will likely end up 8-8 in a mediocre Big East, but their RPI should save them.

Stanford -- This didn't look so promising before they beat UCLA (back when the predictions were made). However, now they have the marquee win to go with the RPI of 30. Tough schedule remaining, but they should be able to hang on and finish 9-9 in a strong conference (currently 6-3).

UNLV -- Likely to slip to 10-6 (currently 5-2) in conference with their tough remaining schedule. Current RPI of 11 will take a significant hit, including a probable loss to RPI 129 New Mexico at The Pit. BYU is likely to finish second in the MWC, and doesn't have the non-conference record to get an at large, so this is a one bid league.

VA Tech -- Mmmmm. Soft, chewy bottom feeders remaining. They are likely to end up 10-6 (maybe 11-5) in the ACC, with a current RPI of 26. They definitely do deserve a better seed than 11, maybe even a 7 or 8.

It's hard to complain too much about any SEC picks or seeding. It's a very underrated conference, and should get a good number of bids, and has been absolutely wacky in terms of who beats who. But I can't let that stop me. Alabama is likely to finish 9-7 (maybe even 8-8) in conference, because they can't win road games. That's not a 4 seed.

However, LSU is the real problem. They are likely to go 8-8 or 7-9 in conference. They have a current RPI of 74, and their previously "good" losses to Wichita State and Washington are now weak. They've simply looked bad lately, without a decent win since Dec. 5th. If they finish 7-9 in the SEC, that's an NIT team.

GA Tech -- Currently an RPI of 53, and just haven't looked good lately. I think they'll finish 7-9 in conference against their schedule, and beating U Conn at home won't help them. They look like an NIT team.

So, that's two teams out (GA Tech, & LSU), and two teams in (Stanford & Villanova). For a change, I have more teams that want in than want out, as Virginia (expect 9-7 in conference or better) and Georgia (expect 9-9 in conference or better) are looking very worthy right now.

Jeff said...

Keep in mind that I filled that out before yesterday's games. Georgia Tech's loss and Stanford's big win will have Stanford replacing Tech in the bracket.

As for Villanova, I want to see another good week. I had them as high as an 8 or 9 seed earlier, but they started struggling. We'll see if they can keep this streak going. The fact is that they're 3-4 in conference with a fairly tough schedule the rest of the way. They don't have the out-of-conference schedule to get them in the Tournament without going 10-6. If they only go 9-7 they will be square on the bubble and only get in if they can get some help (other bubble teams losing down the stretch). At 3-4 with Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn & Syracuse left - only losing three more games will be tough.

As for UNLV, let's rememeber that a high RPI doesn't guarantee anything out of a mid-major conference. Missouri State had a 21 last year and didn't get a bid - out of a better conference. They also haven't played well since I put them in the BP65 last week, with two close wins over not-so-great teams. They are due to lose a few games in the near future, which will drop that RPI and likely take them out of the Tournament.

LSU and Alabama... we'll see. You look at those teams and they are so talented, they should really be elite teams. I feel like a lot of people just don't even watch the games, and have no idea about anything but RPI numbers. Watch those two teams play and tell me that they won't go on a run at some point.

D. Moore said...

On Villanova, we're seeing the same data and drawing different conclusions. I'm not as optimistic as you on Nova's final conference record, as I see them as ending 8-8 and you see them ending at 10-6 or 9-7. However, I do think their non-conference record is strong enough to get them into the field, as evidenced by an RPI of 16. They played true road games out of conference against real opponents (Xavier & Iowa on neutral ground, Oklahoma on the road), which gives their OOC strength of schedule a very significant boost. And Texas and Drexel at home don't hurt.

I agree completely on UNLV.

Regarding LSU and Alabama, sure, they have talent, but they just don't look good in their recent games. LSU is not a cohesive team, and their RPI is low enough that they need a strong finish (against a tough schedule) to make it in. Limping to the finish line won't cut it.

Alabama could turn it around, and they play some creampuffs that could help them there. But, they're not that good on the road, and I think Ronald Steele is playing hurt and isn't at full speed. So, I think their seed will be lower than it might have been.

Also, Alabama plays at LSU this week. Whoever loses will still be hurting next week.

Anonymous said...

Do you do any research on this site! New Mexico State beat Nevada not Air Force. UNLV has won a couple of close games but that was with two of there 3 best players injured. 4-1 on the road OOC record with wins against Nevada and Texas Tech. To leave this team out of your bracket is absurd. No credibility.

Jeff said...

I'm sorry that I said NM State beat Air Force - I was typing a bunch of things at once and typos happen. I don't proofread my comments here as much as my regular posts.

Anyway, New Mexico State has an RPI of 84. So even if you're talking about right now, there is no way that a mid-major team with an RPI of 84 can POSSIBLY get let in. They have to get that under 60 to even be considered. Their schedule is an absolute joke - they've only played three teams in the RPI top 100.

And the reason I bring up the close wins is because if you play enough close games you are due to lose some. You can see that reflected in the Sagarin ratings, where he ranks them as 60th in the country in the ELO-CHESS, but drops them to 102nd in the country in the Predictor. In other words, they've most likely overperformed so far. And even if Sagarin is wrong, they still need a BIG improvement to make the field as an at-large seed. I don't see that happening. Besides, only 9 of the 16 seedings on the bracketproject have New Mexico State in their brackets, and only one gives them a single-digit seed. Are you saying that 7 of the 16 brackets have no credibility?

And D. Moore, I don't want to go through the entire laundry list, but I'll take a quick stab at Villanova. I didn't say I thought they would end up 10-6, because I don't. What I said was that they need to be 10-6 to feel really good about a bid. They could get in with a 9-7, but I just don't see an 8-8 working. The Big East is down this year - you have a few pretty bad teams near the bottom that inflate conference records.

I think it would be POSSIBLE to overcome the 8-8 record with a great out of conference resume, but I wouldn't call theirs great. I know that it looks great when you look at things like strength of schedule (theirs is 8th in the country). But they have a lot of "good" wins - no "great" wins. At Iowa and Oklahoma are nice... but neither are even Tournament teams. You can see that in the schedule breakdown: They're 4-2 against the RPI #51-100, but 2-4 against the Top 50. And those two wins are in conference: Georgetown and Notre Dame.

Their strength of schedule is a little lighter the rest of the way, as their RPI was inflated by a lot of wins over "good" teams like Notre Dame and Providence. In the second half of the conference schedule they have two games that are unlikely wins (at Pitt and at Marquette) that will hurt their overall record, and several games that will hurt their strength of schedule (Cincy, Seton Hall & Rutgers). I don't see that RPI holding up. If they lose to Pitt tonight but beat Louisville later in the week, I'll strongly consider moving them into the field. If they beat Pitt they're in. If they lose both they'll be 3-6 in conference and I bet everyone else will drop them out of their brackets as well. My prediction is that they lose both. Pitt is very tough to beat at home, and Louisville is playing inspired ball right now. I know it's being played at Nova, but in general Louisville has been the better team of late.

Anonymous said...

I was just pointing out an inaccuraecy regarding New Mexico State. My main gripe is your ommision of UNLV with a RPI of 11 and a 4-1 record on the road versus non-conference teams inluding Nevada and Texas Tech. If this team is not worthy then there needs to be another way of choosing teams, because they meet all criteria that the committee like to see.

Jeff said...

If the season ended now, I agree, UNLV would get in. My prediction, however, is that some of these close wins will turn into close losses. A couple bad losses the rest of the way will ruin that RPI and drop UNLV out of the field. You certainly have a right to have different predictions, but that's what I believe.

I don't want to keep going back to Sagarin, because it's only one of several good rating systems, but I will in this case. According to Sagarin's ELO-CHESS, UNLV is the 18th best team in the country. According to the Predictor, they're only 53rd. In other words, they haven't played like an at-large team, they've just won a lot of close games.

If they can keep it up, they'll be in. If they can't, they'll be out. At this stage, it's all speculation.

mwcrespect07 said...

So, if UNLV goes 5-4, like you said, down the stretch and finish 23-7 with the wins on the road and the potential wins against 5 more teams, and they are all not against tcu or new mexico, they will not make your tournament? But NMSU who has played 3 top 100 teams all year, and gone 2-1, and have beaten a team UNLV beat, even though UNLV beat Nevada on the road and held

Jeff said...

I'm not entirely sure what you're saying, because your post got cut off. There's no question that UNLV has a much better resume than New Mexico State, if that's what you're trying to say. If the season ended now, UNLV would probably be in. I'm simple predicting that they have a weak finish to the year. A loss or two will really kill their RPI.

Anonymous said...

I've been reading the banter on UNLV/NMSU. For NMSU, I agree with you. I don't really see the hype there. They got ranked in the "others receiving votes" category for the preseason polls, but without a marquee non-conference win I don't see them getting an at-large. They got a bit shafted in their bracketbuster game (getting Ohio, leader of the MAC), but even if they did beat a Butler-type team, the resume is weaksauce.

UNLV, I disagree. I see what you're saying about them losing games and quickly dropping that glamorous RPI, but non-conference road wins @ Hawaii (where nobody wins), @ Nevada, @ Texas Tech, @ Houston will look excellent on the resume. They also beat a solid TA&M-CC team, who's in the top 75 of the RPI. Anyways, if they can beat BYU (in Provo, really tough to do) and Air Force, they can afford to drop 2 even 3 other games in the conference/conference tourney and still be fine. It all hinges on those 2 games, but considering how they've played on the road this year, it's feasible. The committee will reward them big time for playing well on the road. This team is, in my opinion, for real.

My biggest disagreement is with Vanderbilt (maybe I should hold my tongue before they go and get blown out tomorrow night, but heregoes...) This team is hot. Really hot. They've beaten 5 at-large teams in your bracket, 2 of them on the road. The committee will be more than willing to forgive the Furman/Wake losses if this team goes 9-7 or 10-6 in the SEC, which is looking very probable.

And it's irrational to think tOSU will beat Bucky in the Big 10 Tourney if you admit Wisconsin is the better team.

Jeff said...

If UNLV wins at BYU and beat Air Force then, yeah, they'll earn a trip to the Tournament. Like I said, their resume so far gets them in. I just think they're going to lose those two games plus one or two others. You can have your predictions and I can have mine. If your predictions are correct then UNLV will get in.

As for Vandy, a 10-6 SEC record will get them in. I just don't see that just yet. They're hot now, but there is a long way to go. What happens if they get cold in two weeks and end on a slide? I just don't see the talent up and down that lineup to keep this up all year.

And finally, for OSU/UW, remember that the better team doesn't win every game. Wisconsin outplayed them in Madison, but we'll see what happens in Columbus. If the Badgers find a way to win that one, and win the regular season Big 10 by two or more games, then I will move them up a #1 seed, because even a loss to OSU wouldn't knock them out. Of course, at that point, they'd be riding about a 25 game winning streak, and the pressure would be overwhelming. It would be in their best interest to lose a game before the Tourney starts. Historically, teams on long winning streaks tend to bow out early. Let's remember that the Buckeyes have only lost at Wisconsin, Florida & UNC. No one can expect to win any of those games. They dominated Illinois at Illinois. Just a very impressive year with impressive talent.

Anonymous said...

What leads you to believe that Illinois is going to be a 7 seed. If they get in the tourney they are likely to be one of the last "at-large" teams.

Jeff said...

Well, my reasoning on Illinois is that I don't think they'll be one of the last teams in. I know that they're 4-5 in conference now, but they've really had a tough start to the Big 10 schedule. They've had a few close losses, but most of all they've just had to play a lot of really good teams. Now, they're done with Wisconsin, Ohio State AND Michigan State. The rest of the season they get Northwestern twice, Minnesota and Michigan at home, and a game at Penn State. They honestly should win all of those games. And even their other two games are eminently winnable (at Iowa and Indiana).

Top to bottom, I think they're probably the third most talented team in the Big 10. They had a rough early start to the season because it's their first without the Bill Self recruits (Brown, Head, etc). Now that they're figuring themselves out they're going to finish strong.

Also, don't forget that the Big 10 Tournament is in Illinois. This means that they have the home field advantage, and have a not unreasonable shot at taking out Ohio State or Wisconsin. They probably have the best chance of any team to ruin that matchup in the finals, honestly.

They already have an RPI of 41. A good finish and they'll move inside the top 30. I think a 7 or 8 seed is rasonable.

Anonymous said...

Marquette dropped to a SIXTH seed, after one loss at Georgetown? Are you kidding me? You're being ridiculous.